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題名 退休基金之策略性資產配置
Asset allocation of optimal strategy in pension management
作者 楊凱勛
貢獻者 張士傑
楊凱勛
關鍵詞 動態規劃
提撥政策
資產配置
最適策略
日期 2009
上傳時間 8-Dec-2010 16:41:09 (UTC+8)
摘要 本研究討論以負債導向之退休基金的資產配置模型,並以股票型風險性資產為主要配置標的。隨機控制模型在推導過程中相當繁瑣,經常得不到封閉解,本研究之優點為,實際導出多項資產標的下之一般化封閉解,可進行財務經濟推論,直接得到不同參數對基金之影響,輔以台灣公務人員退撫基金第4次精算報告,為實證研究對象,接著加入投資限制之情境分析與模擬,得到結論。最適提撥隨著正常成本及給付上升而提高,若退休基金於當期有殘餘基金,則可因由投資獲利而少提撥部分資金。回饋函數之最適解同時權衡反應未來之精算正常成本與當期給付,正常成本上升而增加風險性投資,而因當期給付上升而減少風險投資趨於保守。若股票市場報酬率大於利率,投資者將增加股票之比例,以增加投資效果,投資者將對市場股票型資產同時做多空操作,進行避險。反之,隨著短期利率上升後,投資於股票部位將會漸漸移入現金持有,減少股票型風險性資產佔總資產之比例。
參考文獻 Anderson, A.W. Pension Mathematics for Actuaries, 3rd ed. Winsted, Conn.: Actex Publication, 2006.
Bacinello, A. R. (1988), A Stochastic Simulation Procedure for Pension Scheme, Insurance: Mathematics and Economics 7, pp.153-161.
Bellman, R. (1957), Dynamic Programming, Princeton, N.J. Princeton University Press.
Bowers, N. L., Gerber, H. U., Hickman, J. C., Jones, D. A. and Nesbitt, C. J. (1982), Notes on the Dynamics of Pension Funding, Insurance: Mathematics and Economics 1, pp.261-270.
Brennan, M. J., and Schwartz, E. S. (1980), “Analyzing Convertible Bonds,” Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 15, pp.907–929.
Cairns, A. J. G. (2000), “Some Notes on The Dynamics and Optimal Control of Stochastic Pension Fund Models in Continuous Time,” ASTIN Bulletin, 30, pp.19-55.
Cairns, A. J. and Parker, G. (1997), “Stochastic Pension Fund Modeling.” Insurance : Mathematics and Economics, 21, pp.43-79.
Chang, S. C. (1999), “Optimal Pension Funding Through Dynamic Simulations: the Case of Taiwan Public Employees Retirement System,” Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, 24, pp.187-199.
Chang, S. C. (1999), “Stochastic Analysis of the Solvency Risk for TAIPERS Using Simulation-based Forecast Model,” Singapore International Insurance and Actuarial Journal, 3(1), pp.65-81.
Chang, S. C. (2000), “Realistic Pension Funding : A Stochastic Approach,” Journal of Actuarial Practice, 8, pp.5-42.
Chang, S. C. and Chen, C. C. (2001), “Multi-period Optimal Funding and Investment Strategy in Occupational Pension Management,” Management Review, 20, pp.21-52.
Chang, S. C., Tsai, C. H., Tien, C. J. and Tu, C. Y. (2002), ”Dynamic Funding and Investment Strategy for Defined Benefit Pension Schemes: A Model Incorporating Asset-Liability Matching Criteria.” Journal of Actuarial Practice, 10, pp.131-154.
Chang, S. C., Tu, C. Y. and Deng Y. S. (2003), “Speculating and Hedging in Optimal Investment Strategy for Multi-period Fund Management.” Insurance Monograph, 19, pp.1-21.
Chang, S. C. and Li, Y. F. (2004), “Optimal Portfolio Decisions in Pension Fund Management.” Journal of Management, 21, pp.279-290.
Cox, J. C., Ingersoll, J. E., and Ross, S. A. (1985), “A Theory of the Term Structure of Interest Rates,” Econometrica, 53,pp.385-407.
Cox, J. C. and Huang, C. F. (1989), “Optimal Consumption and Portfolio Policies when Asset Prices Follow a Diffusion Process.” Journal of Economic Theory, 49, 33-83.
Cox, J. C. and C. F. Huang, C. F. (1991), “A Variational Problem Arising in Financial Economics.” Journal of Mathematical Economics, 20, 465-487.
Dothan, L. (1978), “On the Term Structure of Interest Rates,” Journal Financial Economics, 6, pp.59-69.
Dufresne, D. (1988), Moments of Pension Fund Contributions and Fund Levels When Rates of Return are Random, Journal of the Institute of Actuaries ,115,pp. 535-544.
Dufresne, D. (1989), Stability of Pension Systems When Rates of Return are Random, Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, 6,pp.129-134.
Haberman, S. (1992), Pension Funding With Time Delays : A Stochastic Approach, Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, 11, pp.179-89.
Haberman, S. (1993), Pension Funding with Time Delays and Autoregressive Rates of Investment Return, Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, 13, pp.45-56.
Haberman, S. (1994), Autoregressive Rates of Return and the Variability of Pension Contributions and Fund Levels for A Defined Benefit Pension Scheme, Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, 14, pp.219-240.
Haberman, S. And Sung, J. H. (1994), Dynamic Approaches to Pension Funding, Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, 15, pp.151-162.
Haberman, S. And Wong, L. Y. (1997), “Moving Average Rates of Return and The Variability of Pension Contributions and Fund Levels for A Defined Benefit Pension Scheme,” Insurance : Mathematics and Economics, 20, pp.115-135.
Haberman, S. and Owadally, M. L. (1999), “Pension Fund Dynamics and Gains/ Losses Due to Random Rates of Investment Return,” North American Actuarial Journal, 3 , pp.105-117.
Liao, S. L., Lee, C. F. and Lien, C. H. (2005), “Empirical Comparison of Interest Rate Models: The Case of Taiwan Commercial Paper Rate,” Management Review, 24, pp.29-54.
Merton, R. C. (1969), “Lifetime Portfolio Selection Under Uncertainty : The Continuous-Time Case.” Review of Economic and Statistics, 51, 247-257.
Merton, R. C. (1971), “Optimal Consumption and Portfolio Rules in a Continuous-Time Model.” Journal of Economic Theory, 3, 373-413.
Merton, R. C. (1973), “Rational Theory of Option Pricing.” Bell Journal of Economics and Management Science, 4, pp.141-183.
Merton, R. (1990), Continuous-Time Finance, Blackwell, Cambridge.
O`Brien, T. (1986), A Stochastic-Dynamic Approach to Pension Funding, Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, 5, pp.141-46.
O`Brien, T. (1987), A Two-Parameter Family of Pension Contribution Functions and Stochastic Optimization, Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, 6, pp.129-134.
Scha ̈l, M. (1998), “On Piecewise Deterministic Markov Control Process : Control of Jumps and of Risk Processes in Insurance,” Insurance : Mathematics and Economics, 22, pp.75-91.
Vasicek, O. A. (1997), “An Equilibrium Characterization of the Term Structure,” Journal of Financial Economics, 5, pp.177-188.
Winklevoss, H. E. (1982), Plasm: Pension Liability and Asset Simulation Model, Journal of Finance, XXXVII No. 2, pp.585-594.
公務人員退休撫卹基金第4次精算報告
描述 碩士
國立政治大學
風險管理與保險研究所
97358024
98
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0097358024
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 張士傑zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) 楊凱勛zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) 楊凱勛zh_TW
dc.date (日期) 2009en_US
dc.date.accessioned 8-Dec-2010 16:41:09 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 8-Dec-2010 16:41:09 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 8-Dec-2010 16:41:09 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0097358024en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/49684-
dc.description (描述) 碩士zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 風險管理與保險研究所zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 97358024zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 98zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) 本研究討論以負債導向之退休基金的資產配置模型,並以股票型風險性資產為主要配置標的。隨機控制模型在推導過程中相當繁瑣,經常得不到封閉解,本研究之優點為,實際導出多項資產標的下之一般化封閉解,可進行財務經濟推論,直接得到不同參數對基金之影響,輔以台灣公務人員退撫基金第4次精算報告,為實證研究對象,接著加入投資限制之情境分析與模擬,得到結論。最適提撥隨著正常成本及給付上升而提高,若退休基金於當期有殘餘基金,則可因由投資獲利而少提撥部分資金。回饋函數之最適解同時權衡反應未來之精算正常成本與當期給付,正常成本上升而增加風險性投資,而因當期給付上升而減少風險投資趨於保守。若股票市場報酬率大於利率,投資者將增加股票之比例,以增加投資效果,投資者將對市場股票型資產同時做多空操作,進行避險。反之,隨著短期利率上升後,投資於股票部位將會漸漸移入現金持有,減少股票型風險性資產佔總資產之比例。zh_TW
dc.description.tableofcontents 摘要 I
目錄 II
圖目錄 III
表目錄 IV
第一章 緒論 1
第一節 研究動機與目的 1
第二節 研究範圍與限制 3
第三節 研究流程與架構 5
第二章 文獻回顧 6
第一節 動態隨機模型 6
第二節 利率模型 9
第三章 精算成本法回顧 10
第一節 社會退休金之精算成本法 10
第二節 商業退休金之精算成本法 11
第四章 財務模型 14
第一節 模型建立 14
第二節 最適策略之建構 19
第三節 推廣至N項資產 25
第五章 數值結果 29
第一節 數值說明與分析 29
第二節 驗證第四章第二節之三個推論 41
第六章 結論與建議 43
參考文獻 45
zh_TW
dc.format.extent 4011218 bytes-
dc.format.mimetype application/pdf-
dc.language.iso en_US-
dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0097358024en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 動態規劃zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 提撥政策zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 資產配置zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 最適策略zh_TW
dc.title (題名) 退休基金之策略性資產配置zh_TW
dc.title (題名) Asset allocation of optimal strategy in pension managementen_US
dc.type (資料類型) thesisen
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Anderson, A.W. Pension Mathematics for Actuaries, 3rd ed. Winsted, Conn.: Actex Publication, 2006.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Bacinello, A. R. (1988), A Stochastic Simulation Procedure for Pension Scheme, Insurance: Mathematics and Economics 7, pp.153-161.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Bellman, R. (1957), Dynamic Programming, Princeton, N.J. Princeton University Press.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Bowers, N. L., Gerber, H. U., Hickman, J. C., Jones, D. A. and Nesbitt, C. J. (1982), Notes on the Dynamics of Pension Funding, Insurance: Mathematics and Economics 1, pp.261-270.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Brennan, M. J., and Schwartz, E. S. (1980), “Analyzing Convertible Bonds,” Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 15, pp.907–929.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Cairns, A. J. G. (2000), “Some Notes on The Dynamics and Optimal Control of Stochastic Pension Fund Models in Continuous Time,” ASTIN Bulletin, 30, pp.19-55.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Cairns, A. J. and Parker, G. (1997), “Stochastic Pension Fund Modeling.” Insurance : Mathematics and Economics, 21, pp.43-79.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Chang, S. C. (1999), “Optimal Pension Funding Through Dynamic Simulations: the Case of Taiwan Public Employees Retirement System,” Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, 24, pp.187-199.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Chang, S. C. (1999), “Stochastic Analysis of the Solvency Risk for TAIPERS Using Simulation-based Forecast Model,” Singapore International Insurance and Actuarial Journal, 3(1), pp.65-81.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Chang, S. C. (2000), “Realistic Pension Funding : A Stochastic Approach,” Journal of Actuarial Practice, 8, pp.5-42.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Chang, S. C. and Chen, C. C. (2001), “Multi-period Optimal Funding and Investment Strategy in Occupational Pension Management,” Management Review, 20, pp.21-52.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Chang, S. C., Tsai, C. H., Tien, C. J. and Tu, C. Y. (2002), ”Dynamic Funding and Investment Strategy for Defined Benefit Pension Schemes: A Model Incorporating Asset-Liability Matching Criteria.” Journal of Actuarial Practice, 10, pp.131-154.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Chang, S. C., Tu, C. Y. and Deng Y. S. (2003), “Speculating and Hedging in Optimal Investment Strategy for Multi-period Fund Management.” Insurance Monograph, 19, pp.1-21.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Chang, S. C. and Li, Y. F. (2004), “Optimal Portfolio Decisions in Pension Fund Management.” Journal of Management, 21, pp.279-290.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Cox, J. C., Ingersoll, J. E., and Ross, S. A. (1985), “A Theory of the Term Structure of Interest Rates,” Econometrica, 53,pp.385-407.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Cox, J. C. and Huang, C. F. (1989), “Optimal Consumption and Portfolio Policies when Asset Prices Follow a Diffusion Process.” Journal of Economic Theory, 49, 33-83.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Cox, J. C. and C. F. Huang, C. F. (1991), “A Variational Problem Arising in Financial Economics.” Journal of Mathematical Economics, 20, 465-487.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Dothan, L. (1978), “On the Term Structure of Interest Rates,” Journal Financial Economics, 6, pp.59-69.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Dufresne, D. (1988), Moments of Pension Fund Contributions and Fund Levels When Rates of Return are Random, Journal of the Institute of Actuaries ,115,pp. 535-544.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Dufresne, D. (1989), Stability of Pension Systems When Rates of Return are Random, Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, 6,pp.129-134.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Haberman, S. (1992), Pension Funding With Time Delays : A Stochastic Approach, Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, 11, pp.179-89.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Haberman, S. (1993), Pension Funding with Time Delays and Autoregressive Rates of Investment Return, Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, 13, pp.45-56.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Haberman, S. (1994), Autoregressive Rates of Return and the Variability of Pension Contributions and Fund Levels for A Defined Benefit Pension Scheme, Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, 14, pp.219-240.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Haberman, S. And Sung, J. H. (1994), Dynamic Approaches to Pension Funding, Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, 15, pp.151-162.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Haberman, S. And Wong, L. Y. (1997), “Moving Average Rates of Return and The Variability of Pension Contributions and Fund Levels for A Defined Benefit Pension Scheme,” Insurance : Mathematics and Economics, 20, pp.115-135.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Haberman, S. and Owadally, M. L. (1999), “Pension Fund Dynamics and Gains/ Losses Due to Random Rates of Investment Return,” North American Actuarial Journal, 3 , pp.105-117.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Liao, S. L., Lee, C. F. and Lien, C. H. (2005), “Empirical Comparison of Interest Rate Models: The Case of Taiwan Commercial Paper Rate,” Management Review, 24, pp.29-54.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Merton, R. C. (1969), “Lifetime Portfolio Selection Under Uncertainty : The Continuous-Time Case.” Review of Economic and Statistics, 51, 247-257.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Merton, R. C. (1971), “Optimal Consumption and Portfolio Rules in a Continuous-Time Model.” Journal of Economic Theory, 3, 373-413.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Merton, R. C. (1973), “Rational Theory of Option Pricing.” Bell Journal of Economics and Management Science, 4, pp.141-183.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Merton, R. (1990), Continuous-Time Finance, Blackwell, Cambridge.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) O`Brien, T. (1986), A Stochastic-Dynamic Approach to Pension Funding, Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, 5, pp.141-46.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) O`Brien, T. (1987), A Two-Parameter Family of Pension Contribution Functions and Stochastic Optimization, Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, 6, pp.129-134.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Scha ̈l, M. (1998), “On Piecewise Deterministic Markov Control Process : Control of Jumps and of Risk Processes in Insurance,” Insurance : Mathematics and Economics, 22, pp.75-91.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Vasicek, O. A. (1997), “An Equilibrium Characterization of the Term Structure,” Journal of Financial Economics, 5, pp.177-188.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Winklevoss, H. E. (1982), Plasm: Pension Liability and Asset Simulation Model, Journal of Finance, XXXVII No. 2, pp.585-594.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 公務人員退休撫卹基金第4次精算報告zh_TW