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題名 附保證商品在Solvency II 的資本評價
作者 李佳穆
貢獻者 黃泓智
李佳穆
關鍵詞 Solvency II
最適估計
風險邊際
日期 2007
上傳時間 8-Dec-2010 16:45:04 (UTC+8)
摘要 目前國際上已對於保險業的清償能力、會計原理、監理制度及風險管
理等相關領域投入許多的努力。而歐盟國家所發展的Solvency II 即是未來
保險監理制度的主要趨勢。本研究整理相關的文獻以及研究報告書,以歐
盟CEIOPS機構所提出的量化影響研究(QIS)和瑞士FOPI機構的清償能力
測試(SST)為主,簡述Solvency II 的相關內容。
且依據Solvency II 量化的方式以及公平價值的概念,而利用附最低保
證的GMDB與GMMB商品而作範例說明。分別在風險中立測度下,衡量最
適估計(Best Estimate)、風險邊際(Risk Margin)以及清償資本額要求
(SCR)。至於風險邊際,則是使用百分位數法與資金成本法而作比較。
主要研究結果如下:
一、 附保證商品在低利率的經濟環境時,會迫使保險公司計提較多
的資本要求。
二、 利率在固定假設下,所計提的資本額度高於利率為隨機的假
設。主要原因在於本文所選定的利率模型為CIR Model,造成
利率具有回歸到歷史平均水準的特性,也因此讓保單持有人所
擁有的「賣權」成為價外(Out of the Money)選擇權。
三、 資金成本法計提較多負債項目的風險邊際,而減少股東權益項
目的清償資本額的要求。原因在於較能保護保單持有人,讓原
保險公司能夠順利被接管(Take Over)而保障業務的持續性
(Ongoing Basis)
參考文獻 英文文獻
1. Bacinello, A.R. and Ortu, F.(1993b)“Pricing Guaranteed Securities-linked Life Insurance under Interest Rate Risk”, Actuarial Approach for Financial Risks, Transactions of the 3rd AFIR International Colloquium, 35-55.
2. Bacinello, A.R. and Ortu, F.(1994)“Single and Periodic Premiums for Guaranteed Equity-linked Life Insurance under Interest Rate Risk: the Lognormal+Vasicek Case” Financial Modeling, L. Peccati and M. Viren (Eds.), Physica-Verlag, Heidelberg, Germany, 1-25.
3. Ballotta L., Esposito G., and Haberman S.(2006)“The IASB Insurance Project for life insurance contracts: Impact on reserving methods and solvency requirements” Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, 39, 356-375
4. Bernard, C., Le Courtois, O., and Quittard-Pinon, F.(2005)“Market value of life insurance contracts under stochastic interest rates and default risk” Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, 36, 499-516.
5. Black, F. and Scholes, M.(1973)“The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities” Journal of Political Economy, 81, 637-654.
6. Boyle, P.P.(1976)“Rates of Return as Random Variable”, The Journal of Risk and Insurance, Vol. 43, No. 4, 693-713.
7. Brennan, M.J. and Schwartz, E.S.(1976)“The Pricing of Equity-linked Life Insurance Policies with an Asset Value Guarantee” Journal of Financial Economics, 3, 195-213.
8. Cox J.C., Ingersoll J.E. and Ross S. A.(1985)“A Theory of the Term Structure of Interest Rates” Econometrica, Vol. 53, No. 2, 385-407
9. Denis D. and Jacques L.D.(2008)“The IASB Discussion Paper on Insurance: A CFO Forum Perspective” The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, 33, 41-53
10. Heath, D., Jarrow, R., Morton, A.,(1992)“Bond pricing and the term structure of interest rates: a new methodology for contingent claims valuation” Econometrica 60, 77–105.
11. Jensen, B., Jørgensen, P., and Grosen, A.(2001)“A finite difference approach to the valuation of path dependent life insurance liabilities” The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance Theory, 26, 57-84.
12. J. Barbarin, P. Devolder,(2005)“Risk measure and fair valuation of an investment guarantee in life insurance” Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, 37, 297–323
13. K Dowd, D Blake(2006)“After VaR: The Theory, Estimation, and Insurance Applications of Quantile-Based Risk Measures” The Journal of Risk and Insurance, Vol. 73, No. 2, 193-229
14. Lai, S.W. and Frees, E.W.(1995)“Examining Changes in Reserves Using Stochastic Interest Models”, The Journal of Risk and Insurance, Vol. 62, No. 3, 535-574.
15. Linder U and Ronkainen V.(2004)“Solvency II - Towards a New Insurance Supervisory System in the EU” Scandinavian Actuarial Journal, 6, 462-474
16. Milevsky, M.A. and Posner, S.(2001)“The Titanic Option: Valuation of Guaranteed Minimum Death Benefits in Variable Annuities and Mutual Funds” The Journal of Risk and Insurance Vol.68 No.1, 93-128
17. Milevsky, M.A. and Promislow, S.D.(2001)“Mortality derivatives and the option to annuities” Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, 29, 299-318
18. Mudavanhu B. and Zhuo, J.(2002)“Valuing Guaranteed Minimum Death Benefits in Variable Annuities and The Option to Lapse” - Submitted to the North American Actuarial Journal for publication.
19. Nielsen J. A. and Sandmann K.(1995)“Equity-linked life insurance: A model with stochastic interest rates” Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, 16, 225-253
20. Pfeifer D. and Strassburger D.(2008) “Solvency II: stability problems with the SCR aggregation formula” Scandinavian Actuarial Journal, 1, 61-77
21. CEA(Comitè Europèen des Assurances), “Solvency II, Cost of Capital”, 2006
22. CEIOPS, “QIS2Technical Specification”, 2006
23. CEIOPS, “QIS3Technical Specifications Part I: Instructions”, 2007
24. CEIOPS, “QIS3-QandA”, 2007
25. CEIOPS, “QIS3Technical Specifications Annexes”, 2007
26. CRO Forum(The Chief Risk Officer Forum) and CEA, “Solutions to major issues for Solvency II”, 2005
27. CRO Forum, “A Market Cost of Capital Approach to Market Value Margins”, 2006
28. Financial Services Commission “Implementation Of The Solvency I Directives(2002/12/EC And 2002/13/EC)” Consultation Paper, 2003
29. FOPI, “White Paper of the Swiss Solvency Test”, 2004
30. FOPI, “The Swiss Experience with Market Consistent Technical Provision - the Cost of Capital Approach”, 2006
31. FOPI, “A Primer for Calculating the Swiss Solvency Test “Cost of Capital ” for a Market Value Margin”, 2006
32. Swiss Re, “Solvency II”, sigma No.4, 2006
中文文獻
一. 林永和,「Solvency II 與風險管理」,風險與保險雜誌,中央再保險公司2007出版,No.12, 7-13
二. 張士傑,「Solvency II:整合型態風險管理的保險監理架構」,風險與保險雜誌,中央再保險公司2007出版,No.12, 2-6
三. 張少彥,「變額年金投資保證之風險評估:Lee-Carter模型之應用」,2007
四. 黃芳文,「歐盟Solvency II 監理制度」,保險財務評估與監理,財團法人保險事業發展中心2007出版,241-264
五. 楊曉文,張孝旭,「勞退新制下變額年金保險之收益保證風險評估與資本適足性研究」,風險管理學報,第七卷第三期2005,301-329
六. 葉典嘉,「壽險責任準備金公平價值之評價分析-以強制分紅保單為例」,2007
描述 碩士
國立政治大學
風險管理與保險研究所
95358023
96
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0953580231
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 黃泓智zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) 李佳穆zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) 李佳穆zh_TW
dc.date (日期) 2007en_US
dc.date.accessioned 8-Dec-2010 16:45:04 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 8-Dec-2010 16:45:04 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 8-Dec-2010 16:45:04 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0953580231en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/49687-
dc.description (描述) 碩士zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 風險管理與保險研究所zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 95358023zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 96zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) 目前國際上已對於保險業的清償能力、會計原理、監理制度及風險管
理等相關領域投入許多的努力。而歐盟國家所發展的Solvency II 即是未來
保險監理制度的主要趨勢。本研究整理相關的文獻以及研究報告書,以歐
盟CEIOPS機構所提出的量化影響研究(QIS)和瑞士FOPI機構的清償能力
測試(SST)為主,簡述Solvency II 的相關內容。
且依據Solvency II 量化的方式以及公平價值的概念,而利用附最低保
證的GMDB與GMMB商品而作範例說明。分別在風險中立測度下,衡量最
適估計(Best Estimate)、風險邊際(Risk Margin)以及清償資本額要求
(SCR)。至於風險邊際,則是使用百分位數法與資金成本法而作比較。
主要研究結果如下:
一、 附保證商品在低利率的經濟環境時,會迫使保險公司計提較多
的資本要求。
二、 利率在固定假設下,所計提的資本額度高於利率為隨機的假
設。主要原因在於本文所選定的利率模型為CIR Model,造成
利率具有回歸到歷史平均水準的特性,也因此讓保單持有人所
擁有的「賣權」成為價外(Out of the Money)選擇權。
三、 資金成本法計提較多負債項目的風險邊際,而減少股東權益項
目的清償資本額的要求。原因在於較能保護保單持有人,讓原
保險公司能夠順利被接管(Take Over)而保障業務的持續性
(Ongoing Basis)
zh_TW
dc.description.tableofcontents 第一章 前言.....................................1
第一節 研究背景..................................1
第二節 研究動機與目的.............................2
第二章 相關文獻探討...............................4
第三章 SOLVENCY II 與量化要求 ....................7
第一節 SOLVENCY II 的發展過...................... 7
第二節 SOLVENCY II 的架構說...................... 9
第三節 最適估計................................. 11
第四節 風險邊際................................. 16
第五節 清償資本額要求............................ 19
第四章 範例說明與研究方法...... ...................24
第一節 保障身故最低給付與保障滿期最低給付........... 24
第二節 模型設定與精算假設......................... 25
第三節 模擬流程................................. 30
第五章 結果分析與比較............................ 34
第一節 百分位數法............................... 34
第二節 資金成本法............................... 39
第六章 結論與建議............................... 45
參考文獻....................................... 47
附錄 QIS3 風險分類的詳細名詞..................... 50
zh_TW
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dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0953580231en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Solvency IIzh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 最適估計zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 風險邊際zh_TW
dc.title (題名) 附保證商品在Solvency II 的資本評價zh_TW
dc.type (資料類型) thesisen
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 英文文獻zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 1. Bacinello, A.R. and Ortu, F.(1993b)“Pricing Guaranteed Securities-linked Life Insurance under Interest Rate Risk”, Actuarial Approach for Financial Risks, Transactions of the 3rd AFIR International Colloquium, 35-55.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 2. Bacinello, A.R. and Ortu, F.(1994)“Single and Periodic Premiums for Guaranteed Equity-linked Life Insurance under Interest Rate Risk: the Lognormal+Vasicek Case” Financial Modeling, L. Peccati and M. Viren (Eds.), Physica-Verlag, Heidelberg, Germany, 1-25.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 3. Ballotta L., Esposito G., and Haberman S.(2006)“The IASB Insurance Project for life insurance contracts: Impact on reserving methods and solvency requirements” Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, 39, 356-375zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 4. Bernard, C., Le Courtois, O., and Quittard-Pinon, F.(2005)“Market value of life insurance contracts under stochastic interest rates and default risk” Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, 36, 499-516.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 5. Black, F. and Scholes, M.(1973)“The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities” Journal of Political Economy, 81, 637-654.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 6. Boyle, P.P.(1976)“Rates of Return as Random Variable”, The Journal of Risk and Insurance, Vol. 43, No. 4, 693-713.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 7. Brennan, M.J. and Schwartz, E.S.(1976)“The Pricing of Equity-linked Life Insurance Policies with an Asset Value Guarantee” Journal of Financial Economics, 3, 195-213.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 8. Cox J.C., Ingersoll J.E. and Ross S. A.(1985)“A Theory of the Term Structure of Interest Rates” Econometrica, Vol. 53, No. 2, 385-407zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 9. Denis D. and Jacques L.D.(2008)“The IASB Discussion Paper on Insurance: A CFO Forum Perspective” The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, 33, 41-53zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 10. Heath, D., Jarrow, R., Morton, A.,(1992)“Bond pricing and the term structure of interest rates: a new methodology for contingent claims valuation” Econometrica 60, 77–105.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 11. Jensen, B., Jørgensen, P., and Grosen, A.(2001)“A finite difference approach to the valuation of path dependent life insurance liabilities” The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance Theory, 26, 57-84.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 12. J. Barbarin, P. Devolder,(2005)“Risk measure and fair valuation of an investment guarantee in life insurance” Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, 37, 297–323zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 13. K Dowd, D Blake(2006)“After VaR: The Theory, Estimation, and Insurance Applications of Quantile-Based Risk Measures” The Journal of Risk and Insurance, Vol. 73, No. 2, 193-229zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 14. Lai, S.W. and Frees, E.W.(1995)“Examining Changes in Reserves Using Stochastic Interest Models”, The Journal of Risk and Insurance, Vol. 62, No. 3, 535-574.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 15. Linder U and Ronkainen V.(2004)“Solvency II - Towards a New Insurance Supervisory System in the EU” Scandinavian Actuarial Journal, 6, 462-474zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 16. Milevsky, M.A. and Posner, S.(2001)“The Titanic Option: Valuation of Guaranteed Minimum Death Benefits in Variable Annuities and Mutual Funds” The Journal of Risk and Insurance Vol.68 No.1, 93-128zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 17. Milevsky, M.A. and Promislow, S.D.(2001)“Mortality derivatives and the option to annuities” Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, 29, 299-318zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 18. Mudavanhu B. and Zhuo, J.(2002)“Valuing Guaranteed Minimum Death Benefits in Variable Annuities and The Option to Lapse” - Submitted to the North American Actuarial Journal for publication.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 19. Nielsen J. A. and Sandmann K.(1995)“Equity-linked life insurance: A model with stochastic interest rates” Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, 16, 225-253zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 20. Pfeifer D. and Strassburger D.(2008) “Solvency II: stability problems with the SCR aggregation formula” Scandinavian Actuarial Journal, 1, 61-77zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 21. CEA(Comitè Europèen des Assurances), “Solvency II, Cost of Capital”, 2006zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 22. CEIOPS, “QIS2Technical Specification”, 2006zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 23. CEIOPS, “QIS3Technical Specifications Part I: Instructions”, 2007zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 24. CEIOPS, “QIS3-QandA”, 2007zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 25. CEIOPS, “QIS3Technical Specifications Annexes”, 2007zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 26. CRO Forum(The Chief Risk Officer Forum) and CEA, “Solutions to major issues for Solvency II”, 2005zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 27. CRO Forum, “A Market Cost of Capital Approach to Market Value Margins”, 2006zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 28. Financial Services Commission “Implementation Of The Solvency I Directives(2002/12/EC And 2002/13/EC)” Consultation Paper, 2003zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 29. FOPI, “White Paper of the Swiss Solvency Test”, 2004zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 30. FOPI, “The Swiss Experience with Market Consistent Technical Provision - the Cost of Capital Approach”, 2006zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 31. FOPI, “A Primer for Calculating the Swiss Solvency Test “Cost of Capital ” for a Market Value Margin”, 2006zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 32. Swiss Re, “Solvency II”, sigma No.4, 2006zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 中文文獻zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 一. 林永和,「Solvency II 與風險管理」,風險與保險雜誌,中央再保險公司2007出版,No.12, 7-13zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 二. 張士傑,「Solvency II:整合型態風險管理的保險監理架構」,風險與保險雜誌,中央再保險公司2007出版,No.12, 2-6zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 三. 張少彥,「變額年金投資保證之風險評估:Lee-Carter模型之應用」,2007zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 四. 黃芳文,「歐盟Solvency II 監理制度」,保險財務評估與監理,財團法人保險事業發展中心2007出版,241-264zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 五. 楊曉文,張孝旭,「勞退新制下變額年金保險之收益保證風險評估與資本適足性研究」,風險管理學報,第七卷第三期2005,301-329zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 六. 葉典嘉,「壽險責任準備金公平價值之評價分析-以強制分紅保單為例」,2007zh_TW