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題名 自有住宅與生育決策─台灣地區之實證分析
The Influence of Home-Ownership on Fertility in Taiwan
作者 吳閔鈺
Wu, Min-Yu
貢獻者 羅光達
Lo, Kuang-Ta
吳閔鈺
Wu, Min-Yu
關鍵詞 自有住宅
生育
台灣地區
homeownership
fertility
Taiwan
日期 2006
上傳時間 9-Dec-2010 15:50:01 (UTC+8)
摘要 本研究主要探討台灣地區自有住宅與生育決策之間的關連性,利用1994年至2005年台灣地區23個縣市之自有住宅率與一般生育率作為實證研究的資料,欲說明一個家庭在面對預算限制式之下,自有住宅對於生育行為的影響,究竟兩者之間存在互補關係抑或競爭關係。本文參考簡單生育理論模型建立迴歸模型,再利用Panel Data實證模型,分析自有住宅與生育決策之間的關係。
根據台灣地區之官方資料所得出的實證結果,得出以下結論:當生育率遞延一期之時,住宅的持有對於生育行為存在負向關係,顯示出自有住宅於購買初期會延後生育決策的形成,兩者之間存在資源排擠效果;而當生育率遞延兩期時,兩者之間的資源排擠效果更為強大。此外,女性受教程度越高,隱含在工作中所獲得的報酬越高,養育子女的機會成本也就越高,與生育率為負向關係。家戶所得亦等同理論預期,與生育率為正向關係。其他變數,如:代表景氣循環的失業率與反應國情文化的龍虎年效應均與原先預期一致,生育行為有著順景氣循環的特性;台灣生育決策與龍虎年息息相關。
The thesis presents the relationship between home-ownership and the birth of children in Taiwan. Housing factor might affects childbirth in complement or replacement way with limited budget in a family. In this study, general fertility rate represents decision of childbirth and homeownership rate means housing factor. This research uses 1994-2005 panel data from the statistic institutions in Taiwan to examine the factors which influence decision of having children, especially housing factor.
The results of the empirical study are summarized as follows: If the decisions of childbirth are lagged a year and two years, they both suffer negative effects from home-ownership. The negative effect of the latter is larger that that of the former. This finding shows that the cost of home-ownership might compete with that of having children. This study also finds that there is a negative relationship between female education and the birth of children. Household income is significant to improve decision of childbirth. Both are consistent with the expectation of theory. Concerning the procyclical behavior of fertility, the study demonstrates that an increase in the unemployment rate generates a decrease in fertility. In addition, having children is correlated with the cultural factors.
參考文獻 官方統計資料
中華民國行政院內政部統計處(1990─2005年),《內政統計年報》,台北:中華民國內政部。
中華民國行政院主計處(1990─2005年),《家庭收支調查報告》,台北:中華民國行政院主計處。
中華民國行政院內政部營建署,《住宅狀況調查報告》,台北:世新大學執行,內政部營建署委託。
國內文獻
于若蓉、朱敬一(1988),「婦女勞動參與對生育行為之影響──兩制內生轉換模型之應用」,《經濟論文叢刊》,16(2),225-249。
余清祥、許添容(2004),「台灣地區鄉鎮市區生育率的空間與群集研究」,台灣人口學會2004年年會暨「人口、家庭與國民健康政策回顧與展望」研討會論文。
李光廷(2007),「工作與生活調和在少子化對策中定位及意義:以日本為中心」,2007年台灣人口學會學術交流「台灣人口新情勢與對策:國民健康與社會安全」研討會論文。
吳文傑、連賢明與林祖嘉(2004),「居住住宅所有權屬與住宅品質對老年人健康狀態的影響」,31(4),313-324。
林萬億(2003),「論我國的社會住宅政策與社會照顧的結合」,《國家政策季刊》,2(4),55-82。
林祖嘉、陳建良(2005),「租買選擇、貸款選擇、與世代組成:巢式LOGIT模型之應用」,《住宅學報》,14(1),1-20。
張素梅(1976),「台灣生育率決定因素的分析」,《社會科學論叢》,25,399-412。
薛立敏、李璧君(1998),「台灣地區房價、住宅權屬與儲蓄間關係之探討」,《1998年中華民國住宅學會第七屆年會論文集》,21-40。
陳建良、張郁鶴(2000),「住宅租擁、世代組成與家計儲蓄間關係之探討──以台灣加計收支調查為對象的分析」,《住宅學報》,9(2),99-124。
薛立敏、陳琇里(1998),「住宅租擁選擇下家計消費支出之比較」,《住宅學報》,7,21-40。
黃修梅(2006),《台灣婦女教育程度與龍虎年效應對生育之影響》,國立政治大學經濟學研究所碩士論文。
楊靜利、彭曉蘋(2005),「台灣的人口問題」,《台灣的社會問題》,38-65。
國外文獻
Becker, Gary S. (1960), “An economic analysis of fertility.” Demographic and Economic Change in Developed Countries, a Conference of the Universities-National Bureau Committee for Economic Research. Princeton, N.J.:Princeton University Press.
Becker, Gary S. (1991), A Treatise on the Family, Cambridge: Harvard University Press.
Castiglioni, Maria and Gianpiero Dalla Zuanna (1994), “Innovation and tradition: reproductive and marital behaviour in Italy in the 1970s and 1980s.” European Journal of Population, 10, 107-142.
Courgeau, Daniel and Eva Lelièvre (1992), “Interrelations between first home-ownership, constitution of the family, and professional occupation in France.” Demographic Applications of Event History Analysis, edited by J. Trussell, R. Hankinson, and J. Tilton. Oxford: Clarendon Press, 120-140.
Feijten, Peteke and Clara H. Mulder (2002), “The timing of household events and housing events in the Netherlands: A longitudinal perspective.” Housing Studies, 17, 773-792.
Fox, J. and P. Goldblatt (1982), Socio-demographic Differentials in Mortality from the OPCS Longitudinal Study, London: HMSO.
Hausman, J. A. (1978), “Specification Tests in Econometrics,” Econometrica, 46(6), 1251-1271.
Huang, Jr-Tsung (2002), “Personal tax exemption: the effect on fertility in Taiwan.” The Developing Economies, 40(1), 32-38.
Huang, Jr-Tsung, An-Pang Kao, and Wen-Chuan Hung (2006), “The influence of college tuition and fees on fertility rate in Taiwan.” Journal of Family and Economic Issues, 27(4), 626-642.
Kohler, H-P., F. Billari, and J. Ortega (2002), “The emergence of lowest low fertility in Europe during the 1990s.” Population and Development Review, 28(4), 641-680.
Lutz, W. and V. Skirbekk (2005), “Policies addressing the tempo effect in low fertility countries.” Population and Development Review, 31(4), 699-720.
Mocan, Naci H. (1990), “Business cycles and fertility dynamics in the United States: a vector autoregressive model.” Journal of Population Economics, 3, 125-146.
Mulder, Clara H. and Michael Wagner (2001), “The connections between family formation and first-time home ownership in the context of West Germany and the Netherlands.” European Journal of Population, 17, 137-164.
Murphy, M. J. and O. Sullivan (1985), “Housing tenure and family formation in contemporary Britain.” European Sociological Review, 1, 230-243.
Mulder, Clara H. (2006), “Population and housing: a two-sided relationship.” Demographic Research, 15, 401-412.
Schultz, T. Paul (1985), “Changing world prices, women’s wage and the fertility transition: Sweden 1860-1910.” Journal of Political Economy, 93, 1126-1154.
Willis, Robert J. (1973), “A New approach to the economic theory of fertility behavior.” Journal of Political Economy, 81, S14-S64.
Whittington, Leslie A., James Alm and H. Elizabeth Peters (1990), “Fertility and the personal exemption: implicit pronatalist policy in the United States.” American Economic Review, 80, 545-556.
描述 碩士
國立政治大學
財政研究所
94255015
95
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0094255015
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 羅光達zh_TW
dc.contributor.advisor Lo, Kuang-Taen_US
dc.contributor.author (Authors) 吳閔鈺zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) Wu, Min-Yuen_US
dc.creator (作者) 吳閔鈺zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) Wu, Min-Yuen_US
dc.date (日期) 2006en_US
dc.date.accessioned 9-Dec-2010 15:50:01 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 9-Dec-2010 15:50:01 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 9-Dec-2010 15:50:01 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0094255015en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/49994-
dc.description (描述) 碩士zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 財政研究所zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 94255015zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 95zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) 本研究主要探討台灣地區自有住宅與生育決策之間的關連性,利用1994年至2005年台灣地區23個縣市之自有住宅率與一般生育率作為實證研究的資料,欲說明一個家庭在面對預算限制式之下,自有住宅對於生育行為的影響,究竟兩者之間存在互補關係抑或競爭關係。本文參考簡單生育理論模型建立迴歸模型,再利用Panel Data實證模型,分析自有住宅與生育決策之間的關係。
根據台灣地區之官方資料所得出的實證結果,得出以下結論:當生育率遞延一期之時,住宅的持有對於生育行為存在負向關係,顯示出自有住宅於購買初期會延後生育決策的形成,兩者之間存在資源排擠效果;而當生育率遞延兩期時,兩者之間的資源排擠效果更為強大。此外,女性受教程度越高,隱含在工作中所獲得的報酬越高,養育子女的機會成本也就越高,與生育率為負向關係。家戶所得亦等同理論預期,與生育率為正向關係。其他變數,如:代表景氣循環的失業率與反應國情文化的龍虎年效應均與原先預期一致,生育行為有著順景氣循環的特性;台灣生育決策與龍虎年息息相關。
zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) The thesis presents the relationship between home-ownership and the birth of children in Taiwan. Housing factor might affects childbirth in complement or replacement way with limited budget in a family. In this study, general fertility rate represents decision of childbirth and homeownership rate means housing factor. This research uses 1994-2005 panel data from the statistic institutions in Taiwan to examine the factors which influence decision of having children, especially housing factor.
The results of the empirical study are summarized as follows: If the decisions of childbirth are lagged a year and two years, they both suffer negative effects from home-ownership. The negative effect of the latter is larger that that of the former. This finding shows that the cost of home-ownership might compete with that of having children. This study also finds that there is a negative relationship between female education and the birth of children. Household income is significant to improve decision of childbirth. Both are consistent with the expectation of theory. Concerning the procyclical behavior of fertility, the study demonstrates that an increase in the unemployment rate generates a decrease in fertility. In addition, having children is correlated with the cultural factors.
en_US
dc.description.tableofcontents 第一章、 緒論 1
第一節、 研究背景 1
第二節、 研究動機 8
第三節、 研究限制 9
第四節、 研究架構 11
第二章、 文獻回顧 13
第一節、 生育行為之相關文獻 13
第二節、 住宅租擁對家庭決策之文獻 19
第三節、 自有住宅與生育行為的關係之文獻 21
第三章、 台灣生育率與自有住宅率之回顧與分析 23
第一節、 與世界各國的比較 23
第二節、 台灣生育率的趨勢概況 28
第三節、 台灣自有住宅率的趨勢概況 30
第四節、 各縣市生育率與自有住宅率之探討 32
第四章、 研究方法與實證結果 35
第一節、 實證模型 35
第二節、 實證模型的設定 41
第三節、 各變數說明與預期效果 44
第四節、 實證結果與分析 49
第五章、 結論與建議 54
第一節、 結論 54
第二節、 建議 56
參考文獻 57
附錄 61

表次

表 1、世界各國自有住宅率與生育率之比較 24
表 2、台灣地區總生育率與自有住宅率(1990─2005) 31
表 3、各縣市ㄧ般生育率時間趨勢 (1994-2005) 33
表 4、各縣市自有住宅率時間趨勢(1994-2005) 34
表 5、實證模型設定 42
表 6、各變數之說明與基本統計量 45
表 7、生育率遞延一期模型之實證結果 52
表 8、生育率遞延兩期模型之實證結果 53
表 9、生育率遞延三期模型之實證結果 61

圖次

圖 1、台灣老化指數與扶老比之趨勢圖(1990-2006) 3
圖 2、主要國家自有住宅率的比較 5
圖 3、一般生育率與自有住宅率時間趨勢圖(1994-2005) 6
圖 4、自有住宅率與遞延一期、兩期一般生育率時間趨勢圖(1994-2005) 7
圖 5、世界主要國家自有住宅率之比較 25
圖 6、世界主要國家之生育率比較 25
圖 7、台灣育齡婦女總生育率趨勢圖(1981─2005) 29
圖 8、台灣自有住宅率時間趨勢圖(1990-2005) 31
zh_TW
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dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0094255015en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 自有住宅zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 生育zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 台灣地區zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) homeownershipen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) fertilityen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Taiwanen_US
dc.title (題名) 自有住宅與生育決策─台灣地區之實證分析zh_TW
dc.title (題名) The Influence of Home-Ownership on Fertility in Taiwanen_US
dc.type (資料類型) thesisen
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 官方統計資料zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 中華民國行政院內政部統計處(1990─2005年),《內政統計年報》,台北:中華民國內政部。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 中華民國行政院主計處(1990─2005年),《家庭收支調查報告》,台北:中華民國行政院主計處。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 中華民國行政院內政部營建署,《住宅狀況調查報告》,台北:世新大學執行,內政部營建署委託。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 國內文獻zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 于若蓉、朱敬一(1988),「婦女勞動參與對生育行為之影響──兩制內生轉換模型之應用」,《經濟論文叢刊》,16(2),225-249。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 余清祥、許添容(2004),「台灣地區鄉鎮市區生育率的空間與群集研究」,台灣人口學會2004年年會暨「人口、家庭與國民健康政策回顧與展望」研討會論文。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 李光廷(2007),「工作與生活調和在少子化對策中定位及意義:以日本為中心」,2007年台灣人口學會學術交流「台灣人口新情勢與對策:國民健康與社會安全」研討會論文。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 吳文傑、連賢明與林祖嘉(2004),「居住住宅所有權屬與住宅品質對老年人健康狀態的影響」,31(4),313-324。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 林萬億(2003),「論我國的社會住宅政策與社會照顧的結合」,《國家政策季刊》,2(4),55-82。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 林祖嘉、陳建良(2005),「租買選擇、貸款選擇、與世代組成:巢式LOGIT模型之應用」,《住宅學報》,14(1),1-20。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 張素梅(1976),「台灣生育率決定因素的分析」,《社會科學論叢》,25,399-412。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 薛立敏、李璧君(1998),「台灣地區房價、住宅權屬與儲蓄間關係之探討」,《1998年中華民國住宅學會第七屆年會論文集》,21-40。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 陳建良、張郁鶴(2000),「住宅租擁、世代組成與家計儲蓄間關係之探討──以台灣加計收支調查為對象的分析」,《住宅學報》,9(2),99-124。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 薛立敏、陳琇里(1998),「住宅租擁選擇下家計消費支出之比較」,《住宅學報》,7,21-40。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 黃修梅(2006),《台灣婦女教育程度與龍虎年效應對生育之影響》,國立政治大學經濟學研究所碩士論文。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 楊靜利、彭曉蘋(2005),「台灣的人口問題」,《台灣的社會問題》,38-65。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 國外文獻zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Becker, Gary S. (1960), “An economic analysis of fertility.” Demographic and Economic Change in Developed Countries, a Conference of the Universities-National Bureau Committee for Economic Research. Princeton, N.J.:Princeton University Press.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Becker, Gary S. (1991), A Treatise on the Family, Cambridge: Harvard University Press.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Castiglioni, Maria and Gianpiero Dalla Zuanna (1994), “Innovation and tradition: reproductive and marital behaviour in Italy in the 1970s and 1980s.” European Journal of Population, 10, 107-142.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Courgeau, Daniel and Eva Lelièvre (1992), “Interrelations between first home-ownership, constitution of the family, and professional occupation in France.” Demographic Applications of Event History Analysis, edited by J. Trussell, R. Hankinson, and J. Tilton. Oxford: Clarendon Press, 120-140.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Feijten, Peteke and Clara H. Mulder (2002), “The timing of household events and housing events in the Netherlands: A longitudinal perspective.” Housing Studies, 17, 773-792.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Fox, J. and P. Goldblatt (1982), Socio-demographic Differentials in Mortality from the OPCS Longitudinal Study, London: HMSO.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Hausman, J. A. (1978), “Specification Tests in Econometrics,” Econometrica, 46(6), 1251-1271.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Huang, Jr-Tsung (2002), “Personal tax exemption: the effect on fertility in Taiwan.” The Developing Economies, 40(1), 32-38.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Huang, Jr-Tsung, An-Pang Kao, and Wen-Chuan Hung (2006), “The influence of college tuition and fees on fertility rate in Taiwan.” Journal of Family and Economic Issues, 27(4), 626-642.zh_TW
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