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題名 臺北市縣個體家戶遷移因素之分析
The Analysis of the Determinants of the Household Mobility in the Greater Taipei Area
作者 羅雅怡
Ya Yi,Lou
貢獻者 張金鶚
Chin-Oh,Chang
羅雅怡
Ya Yi,Lou
關鍵詞 臺北市縣
遷移
羅吉特迴歸模型
the greater Taipei area
mobility decision
logistic regression model
日期 2009
上傳時間 9-Dec-2010 16:27:24 (UTC+8)
摘要 房價可反應家戶負擔能力,在家戶遷移決策上扮演重要角色,鑒於國內遷移相關研究多欠缺房價的考慮,本研究採用2009年「住宅需求動向調查」之已購屋者的資料,以二元羅吉特迴歸模型進行實證,分析臺北縣(市)家戶的遷移決策,了解原居住在臺北市(縣)之家戶選擇在臺北市(縣)內遷移或選擇向臺北縣(市)遷移的影響因素。住宅之單價及屋齡對臺北都會區的家戶均為影響遷移決策的關鍵因素。首購之家戶傾向遷往臺北縣,首次購屋者較非首購家戶會考慮住宅的負擔能力得到證實。教育程度及家戶年所得愈高,傾向遷往臺北市,另購屋決策者搜尋時間增加傾向遷往臺北市,顯示臺北市的住宅市場環境不確定性較臺北縣住宅市場高,亦可能是因為家戶進行遷移決策時帶著先前的參考價格偏誤進入市場,從高評價往低評價地區遷移,會減少搜尋行為而有較快的決策速度。本研究有助於了解臺北都會區之間人口流動的情形,作為政府住宅政策的參考依據。
House price, which is an indicate to household`s ability, plays an important role in the mobility decision. However, few research in Taiwan has touched this issue. Therefore, we use the home buyers` data in the greater Taipei area from 2009`s "Housing Demand Survey" to convey our empirical study by employing a binary logistic regression model. Empirically, we find that the price and age of house are the key determinants of the household mobility in the greater Taipei area. First-time home buyers tend to move to the Taipei County. Our research confirms that the first-time home buyers consider the price much more than those who have previously acquired a house (or more) of their own. The households with a higher education level or greater pay tend to move to the Taipei City. Thoroughly-researched home buyers prefer to move to Taipei City. This indicates that the uncertainty of the Taipei City’s house market is greater than of the Taipei County. Or this is due to the fact that households tend to enter the market with biased previous prices, when households from higher evaluation location move to lower, they make mobility decision faster. The results are meaningful for the supply of housing market and public facility services.
參考文獻 中文參考文獻
1.內政部人口政策委員會,1968,『臺灣四大都會區人口遷移與社會調適之研究』,臺北:內政部人口政策委員會。
2.蕭新煌,1993,『臺北縣移入人口趨勢、現象、問題與對策,臺北縣移入人口之研究』,臺北:臺北縣立文化中心。
3.靳燕玲,2002,『臺灣地區住戶換屋特性之探討』,臺北:內政部建築研究所。
4.王濟川、郭志剛,2008,『logistic迴歸模型—方法與應用』二版三刷,臺北:五南。
5.Florida R.,任卓、馮克芸譯,2009,『尋找你的幸福城市—你住的地方決定你的前途』一版,臺北:天下雜誌。
6.Long, J.S.,鄭旭智等譯,2002,『類別與受限應變項的迴歸統計模式』初版,臺北:弘智。
7.李朝賢,1995,「臺灣城鄉人口遷徙因素之探討」,『臺灣經濟月刊』,218:1-12。
8.陳明吉、蔡怡純、張金鶚,2003,「住宅負擔能力惡化之再檢視-台北市住宅市場分析」,『臺大管理論叢』,14(1):47-78。
9.陳明吉、曾琬婷,2008,「台灣不動產市場從眾行為之檢視」,『管理與系統』15(4):1-11。
10.陳淑美、張金鶚,2002,「家戶遷移決策與路徑選擇之研究—台北縣市的實證研究」,『住宅學報』11(1):1-22。
11.陳淑美、張金鶚、陳建良,2004,「家戶遷移與居住品質變化關係之研究—台北縣市的實證分析」,『住宅學報』13(1):51-74。
12.陳淑美、張金鶚,2004,「三代同堂家庭遷移決策之研究」,『人文及社會科學集刊』16(2):325-349。
13.洪嘉瑜、銀慶貞,2008,「台灣人口遷移屬性與動機的變化」,『東吳經濟商業學報』,61:31-66。
14.曾喜鵬、薛立敏,2004,「家戶在都會區內部之遷移與住宅選擇模型—以住宅消費失衡與調整為觀點的解釋」,『建築與規劃學報』5(1):1-28。
15.曾喜鵬、薛立敏,2008,「家戶住宅消費調整選擇行為之研究—台灣地區擁屋家戶的實證分析」,『台灣土地研究』11(2):105-125。
16.靳燕玲、華昌宜,2004,「住宅改善之居住調整行為初探」,『建築與規劃學報』5(1):69-88。
17.劉小蘭、劉念華,1995,「臺北都會區遷入人口特性之探討」,『國立政治大學學報社會科學類』,70:197-223。
18.薛立敏、曾喜鵬、陳雅君,2002,「區域人口遷入台北都會區地點選擇之實證研究」,『住宅學報』11(2):159-178。
19.邊瑞芬,1991,「臺灣地區縣市社經發展與人口遷移的關係」,『國立臺灣大學人口學刊』,14:83-108。
20.謝高橋、張清富,1997,「城鄉連結—遷移人口特性與適應」。頁259-286,收錄於章英華、蔡勇美編,『臺灣的都市社會』,臺北:巨流。
21.章英華、林季平,2000,「台北縣人口成長與地區特性」,論文發表於〈新世紀台北縣發展藍圖〉主辦單位:臺北,9月22日。
外文參考文獻
1.Andersen,H.S.,2008,”Why do Residents Want to Leave Deprived Neighborhoods? The Importance of Resident’ Subjective Evaluations of Their Neighborhood and Its Reputation”, Journal of Housing and the Built Environment,23:79-101.
2.Brown,D.L.E.G,Moore,1970,The Intra Urban Migration Process: A Perspective”, Economic Geography,55:338-352
3.Brummell,A.C.,1979,”A Model of Intraurban Mobility ”,Economic Geography,55:228-352
4.Berger,M.C.,1992,”Mobility and Destination in Migration Decision: The Role of Earnings, Quality of Life, and Housing Prices”, Journal Of Housing Economics,2:37-59
5.Clark ,W.A.V. and J.O.Huff,1977,”Some Empirical Test of a Joint Model of Residential Mobility and Housing Choice.”Environment and Planning,17,915-930
6.Clark, W.A.V and J.L. Onaka,1983,”Life Cycle and Housing Adjustment as Explanations of Residential Mobility ”,Urban Studies,20:47-57
7.Clark, W.A,V. and Y. Huang ,2003,”Life Cycle and Residential Mobility in British Housing Markets”, Environment And Planning , 35: 323-339.
8.Gilderbloom, J.L. and R.P. Appelbaum,1988,Rethinking Rental Housing. Philadelphia: Temple University Press.
9.Kendig,H.L.,1984,”Housing Careers, Life Cycle and Residential Mobility: Implocations for the Housing Market. ”Urban Studies ”21:271-283.
10.Li,S.M.,2004,”Life Cycle and Residential Mobility in Beijing, China ”, Environment and Planning ,35:323-339.
11.Mcginnis,R.,1968,”A Stochastic Model of Social Mobility“, American Sociological Review,33:712-722
12.Rossi, P.H.,1955 ,Why Families Move:A Study in The Social Psychology of Urban Residential Mobility ,Glencoe, Illinois:The Free Press.
13.Speare,A.Jr.,1974,”Residential Satisfaction as an Intervening Variable in Residential Mobility”,Demography,11:173-188
14.Thomas, A., 1993,”The Influence of Wages and House Prices on British Interregional Migration Decision”, Applied Economics, 1261-1268.
15.Wolpert, J.,1965,”Migration as an Adjustment to Environmental Stress”, Journal of Social Issues,22:91-102.
網頁參考文獻
1.行政院主計處,網址:http://www.dgbas.gov.tw/
2.內政部統計處,網址:http://www.moi.gov.tw/stat/index.aspx
3.內政部戶政司,網址http://www.ris.gov.tw/
描述 碩士
國立政治大學
地政研究所
94257021
98
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0094257021
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 張金鶚zh_TW
dc.contributor.advisor Chin-Oh,Changen_US
dc.contributor.author (Authors) 羅雅怡zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) Ya Yi,Louen_US
dc.creator (作者) 羅雅怡zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) Ya Yi,Louen_US
dc.date (日期) 2009en_US
dc.date.accessioned 9-Dec-2010 16:27:24 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 9-Dec-2010 16:27:24 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 9-Dec-2010 16:27:24 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0094257021en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/50024-
dc.description (描述) 碩士zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 地政研究所zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 94257021zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 98zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) 房價可反應家戶負擔能力,在家戶遷移決策上扮演重要角色,鑒於國內遷移相關研究多欠缺房價的考慮,本研究採用2009年「住宅需求動向調查」之已購屋者的資料,以二元羅吉特迴歸模型進行實證,分析臺北縣(市)家戶的遷移決策,了解原居住在臺北市(縣)之家戶選擇在臺北市(縣)內遷移或選擇向臺北縣(市)遷移的影響因素。住宅之單價及屋齡對臺北都會區的家戶均為影響遷移決策的關鍵因素。首購之家戶傾向遷往臺北縣,首次購屋者較非首購家戶會考慮住宅的負擔能力得到證實。教育程度及家戶年所得愈高,傾向遷往臺北市,另購屋決策者搜尋時間增加傾向遷往臺北市,顯示臺北市的住宅市場環境不確定性較臺北縣住宅市場高,亦可能是因為家戶進行遷移決策時帶著先前的參考價格偏誤進入市場,從高評價往低評價地區遷移,會減少搜尋行為而有較快的決策速度。本研究有助於了解臺北都會區之間人口流動的情形,作為政府住宅政策的參考依據。zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) House price, which is an indicate to household`s ability, plays an important role in the mobility decision. However, few research in Taiwan has touched this issue. Therefore, we use the home buyers` data in the greater Taipei area from 2009`s "Housing Demand Survey" to convey our empirical study by employing a binary logistic regression model. Empirically, we find that the price and age of house are the key determinants of the household mobility in the greater Taipei area. First-time home buyers tend to move to the Taipei County. Our research confirms that the first-time home buyers consider the price much more than those who have previously acquired a house (or more) of their own. The households with a higher education level or greater pay tend to move to the Taipei City. Thoroughly-researched home buyers prefer to move to Taipei City. This indicates that the uncertainty of the Taipei City’s house market is greater than of the Taipei County. Or this is due to the fact that households tend to enter the market with biased previous prices, when households from higher evaluation location move to lower, they make mobility decision faster. The results are meaningful for the supply of housing market and public facility services.en_US
dc.description.tableofcontents 第一章、 緒論 1
第一節 研究動機與問題 1
第二節 研究方法與範圍 5
第三節 研究架構與流程 7
第二章、 相關理論與文獻回顧 9
第一節 居住遷移理論 9
第二節 影響遷移的因素 14
第三節 小結 20
第三章、 資料處理與分析 22
第一節 資料處理 22
第二節 樣本資料分析 24
第三節 樣本檢定分析 27
第四章、 實證結果分析 30
第一節 模型設定與變數選取 30
第二節 實證結果分析 34
第三節 小結 38
第五章、 結論與建議 39
第一節 結論 39
第二節 研究限制與後續建議 40
中文參考文獻 42
外文參考文獻 43
網頁參考文獻 44
附錄一、臺灣地區人口之遷徙情形 45
附錄二、住宅需求動向調查問卷(以2010年上半年為例) 45
zh_TW
dc.format.extent 1107954 bytes-
dc.format.mimetype application/pdf-
dc.language.iso en_US-
dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0094257021en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 臺北市縣zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 遷移zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 羅吉特迴歸模型zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) the greater Taipei areaen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) mobility decisionen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) logistic regression modelen_US
dc.title (題名) 臺北市縣個體家戶遷移因素之分析zh_TW
dc.title (題名) The Analysis of the Determinants of the Household Mobility in the Greater Taipei Areaen_US
dc.type (資料類型) thesisen
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 中文參考文獻zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 1.內政部人口政策委員會,1968,『臺灣四大都會區人口遷移與社會調適之研究』,臺北:內政部人口政策委員會。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 2.蕭新煌,1993,『臺北縣移入人口趨勢、現象、問題與對策,臺北縣移入人口之研究』,臺北:臺北縣立文化中心。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 3.靳燕玲,2002,『臺灣地區住戶換屋特性之探討』,臺北:內政部建築研究所。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 4.王濟川、郭志剛,2008,『logistic迴歸模型—方法與應用』二版三刷,臺北:五南。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 5.Florida R.,任卓、馮克芸譯,2009,『尋找你的幸福城市—你住的地方決定你的前途』一版,臺北:天下雜誌。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 6.Long, J.S.,鄭旭智等譯,2002,『類別與受限應變項的迴歸統計模式』初版,臺北:弘智。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 7.李朝賢,1995,「臺灣城鄉人口遷徙因素之探討」,『臺灣經濟月刊』,218:1-12。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 8.陳明吉、蔡怡純、張金鶚,2003,「住宅負擔能力惡化之再檢視-台北市住宅市場分析」,『臺大管理論叢』,14(1):47-78。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 9.陳明吉、曾琬婷,2008,「台灣不動產市場從眾行為之檢視」,『管理與系統』15(4):1-11。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 10.陳淑美、張金鶚,2002,「家戶遷移決策與路徑選擇之研究—台北縣市的實證研究」,『住宅學報』11(1):1-22。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 11.陳淑美、張金鶚、陳建良,2004,「家戶遷移與居住品質變化關係之研究—台北縣市的實證分析」,『住宅學報』13(1):51-74。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 12.陳淑美、張金鶚,2004,「三代同堂家庭遷移決策之研究」,『人文及社會科學集刊』16(2):325-349。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 13.洪嘉瑜、銀慶貞,2008,「台灣人口遷移屬性與動機的變化」,『東吳經濟商業學報』,61:31-66。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 14.曾喜鵬、薛立敏,2004,「家戶在都會區內部之遷移與住宅選擇模型—以住宅消費失衡與調整為觀點的解釋」,『建築與規劃學報』5(1):1-28。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 15.曾喜鵬、薛立敏,2008,「家戶住宅消費調整選擇行為之研究—台灣地區擁屋家戶的實證分析」,『台灣土地研究』11(2):105-125。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 16.靳燕玲、華昌宜,2004,「住宅改善之居住調整行為初探」,『建築與規劃學報』5(1):69-88。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 17.劉小蘭、劉念華,1995,「臺北都會區遷入人口特性之探討」,『國立政治大學學報社會科學類』,70:197-223。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 18.薛立敏、曾喜鵬、陳雅君,2002,「區域人口遷入台北都會區地點選擇之實證研究」,『住宅學報』11(2):159-178。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 19.邊瑞芬,1991,「臺灣地區縣市社經發展與人口遷移的關係」,『國立臺灣大學人口學刊』,14:83-108。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 20.謝高橋、張清富,1997,「城鄉連結—遷移人口特性與適應」。頁259-286,收錄於章英華、蔡勇美編,『臺灣的都市社會』,臺北:巨流。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 21.章英華、林季平,2000,「台北縣人口成長與地區特性」,論文發表於〈新世紀台北縣發展藍圖〉主辦單位:臺北,9月22日。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 外文參考文獻zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 1.Andersen,H.S.,2008,”Why do Residents Want to Leave Deprived Neighborhoods? The Importance of Resident’ Subjective Evaluations of Their Neighborhood and Its Reputation”, Journal of Housing and the Built Environment,23:79-101.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 2.Brown,D.L.E.G,Moore,1970,The Intra Urban Migration Process: A Perspective”, Economic Geography,55:338-352zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 3.Brummell,A.C.,1979,”A Model of Intraurban Mobility ”,Economic Geography,55:228-352zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 4.Berger,M.C.,1992,”Mobility and Destination in Migration Decision: The Role of Earnings, Quality of Life, and Housing Prices”, Journal Of Housing Economics,2:37-59zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 5.Clark ,W.A.V. and J.O.Huff,1977,”Some Empirical Test of a Joint Model of Residential Mobility and Housing Choice.”Environment and Planning,17,915-930zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 6.Clark, W.A.V and J.L. Onaka,1983,”Life Cycle and Housing Adjustment as Explanations of Residential Mobility ”,Urban Studies,20:47-57zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 7.Clark, W.A,V. and Y. Huang ,2003,”Life Cycle and Residential Mobility in British Housing Markets”, Environment And Planning , 35: 323-339.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 8.Gilderbloom, J.L. and R.P. Appelbaum,1988,Rethinking Rental Housing. Philadelphia: Temple University Press.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 9.Kendig,H.L.,1984,”Housing Careers, Life Cycle and Residential Mobility: Implocations for the Housing Market. ”Urban Studies ”21:271-283.zh_TW
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dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 網頁參考文獻zh_TW
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