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題名 總體景氣波動對我國地方政府租稅努力之不對稱影響-以土地稅為例
作者 吳明彥
貢獻者 羅光達
吳明彥
關鍵詞 總體景氣循環
租稅努力
地價稅
土地增值稅
不對稱影響
日期 2010
上傳時間 29-Sep-2011 18:33:08 (UTC+8)
摘要 我國地方政府租稅努力程度有普遍不足的現象,且稅收會隨景氣波動呈現不穩定的情況。本篇文章的研究目的,從土地稅租稅努力角度切入,來探討總體景氣波動對於我國地方政府租稅努力程度的影響,並進一步分析景氣繁榮與衰退期間對我國租稅努力是否具有不對稱效果。除此之外,本文建立迴歸計量模型,配合1982年到2009年我國總體經濟的時間序列資料,來驗證總體經濟變數以及景氣波動對於我國租稅努力的影響,是呈現正向或反向循環關係,以及景氣波動對租稅努力是否有不對稱影響。
     本文主要的結論有兩點,第一點可由迴歸結果中證明,無論是單獨探討景氣波動的影響效果,或是放入其他總體變數所建構較完整的模型之下,都顯示總體景氣衰退期間的失業率,和全國土地稅租稅努力呈現負向關係,而實證結果也證明我國總體經濟景氣波動與土地稅租稅努力呈現正循環,也就是同方向變動的關係,表示我國地方政府在面臨景氣衰退期間,對於土地租的努力程度較低,而在景氣繁榮期間的土地稅租稅努力則較高。本文的第二發現,乃是若將景氣波動分為繁榮與衰退期間,可發現景氣衰退期間影響大於景氣繁榮期間,這也表示總體景氣於衰退期間對於土地稅租稅努力程度的影響效果較大。且經由Wald test的檢測結果中可看出總體景氣的繁榮與衰退期間對我國土地稅租稅努力有不對稱影響,故可推論景氣好壞會影響地方政府的租稅努力行為。據此,在地方政府自主性增加之後,地方政府需要更有目地的提升自我租稅努力程度,若地方政府能夠判斷景氣波動對財政造成的影響,或許可制定輔合時宜的租稅政策。
參考文獻 中文部分
李新仁(1987),《地方政府財政能力與租稅努力之研究》,碩士論文,政治大學財政研究所。
林健次、蔡吉源(2003),《地方財政自我負責機制與財政收支劃分》,公共行政學報,第9期,頁1-33。
陳佳利(2006),《景氣波動不對稱傳遞效果之實證研究》,碩士論文,東華大學國際經濟研究所。
陳曉瑩(2002),《台灣地區以土地稅作為地方主要財源之研究》,碩士論文,成功大學都市計劃研究所。
高銘駿(2005),《臺灣銀行業的資本適足性與景氣循環之關係》,碩士論文,國立雲林科技大學財務金融研究所。
翁百郁(2004),《期間利差、股票報酬與景氣循環關聯性之探討》,碩士論文,淡江大學財務金融研究所。
許雯(2010),《總體景氣波動對銀行不良債權比率之不對稱性影響》,碩士論文,政治大學財政研究所。
黃耀輝(2006),《中央統籌分配稅款對調節地方財政之成效評估》,行政院研考會委託研究報告。
黃建興(2001),《地方財政努力之分析》,財稅研究,33卷5期,頁47-55。
曾巨威(2001),《如何透過中央統籌分配稅款及補助款之分配激勵地方政府開闢財源》,行政院研究發展考核委員會研究計畫。
行政院經濟建設委員會健全經社法規工作小組(1988),『平均地權條例之立法沿革及理由』,台北:編者。
鄧凱方(2007),《金融自由化與經濟景氣對所得過度敏感性之再探討》,碩士論文,國立清華大學統計學研究所。
鄭閔華(2001),《中央統籌分配稅款之模擬分析》,碩士論文,政治大學財政研究所。
賴麗仙(2003),《估測我國財政能力與租稅努力之研究》,碩士論文,逢甲大學會計與財稅研究所。
英文部分
Alm, James, Jorge Martinez-Vazquez and Friedich Schneider (2004), “Sizing the Problem of the Hard-To-Tax.” paper presented at the “Hard to Tax: An International Perspective.” In Alm, J., J. Martinez-Vazquez, and S. Wallace (eds.), Taxing the Hard-to-Tax. Amsterdam: Elsevier Publisher.
Bahl, R. W. (1971)“A regression approach to tax effort and tax ratio analysis. IMF Staff Papers, n. 18, p. 570-607.
Bahl R.W.(2003), “Reaching the hardest to tax: Consequences and possibilities”, paper presented at the “Hard to Tax: An international Perspective” conference, Andrew Young School of Policy Studies, Georgia State University.
Bird, Richard and François Vaillancourt (1998) Fiscal Decentralization in Developing Countries Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1998, 318 pages.
Chelliah, R. J. (1971). “Trends in Taxation in Developing Countries,” IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 18, No. 2, pp.254-325.
Chelliah, Raja J., Hessel J. Baas, and Margaret R. Kelly (1975), “Tax Ratios and Tax Effort in Developing Countries,” Staff Papers, International Monetary Fund, Vol.2, pp. 187-205.
Dickey, D. A. and W. A. Fuller (1981), “Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root.” Econometrica, 49, 1057-1072.
Eltony, M. N. (2002)“Measuring Tax Effort in Arab Countries”. Arab Planning Institute, Kuwait.
Hodrick, R., and E.P. Prescott (1997),“PostwarBusiness Cycles: An Empirical Investigation,” Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, 29(1), 1–16.
Leuthold, J. H. (1991). “Tax Shares in Developing Economies: A Panel Study,” Journal of Development Economics, Vol. 35, pp. 173-185.
Lotz, J. R. and E. R. Morss (1967). “Measuring ‘Tax Effort’ in Developing Countries,” IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 14, pp. 478-499.
Lotz, J. R. and E. R. Morss (1970). “A Theory of Tax Level Determinants for Developing Countries,” Economic Development and Cultural Change, Vol. 18, pp. 328-341.
Lutfunnahar, Begum (2007). “A Panel Study on Tax Effort and Tax Buoyancy with Special Reference to Bangladesh”, Working Paper 715: Policy Analysis Unit (PAU) Research Department Bangladesh Bank.
Musgrave, R.A. (1969). Fiscal Systems, New Haven: Yale University Press.
Okun, A. M.(1962), “Potential GNP: ItsMeasurement and Significance.” in American Statistical Association (ed.), Proceedings of the Business and Economic Statistics Section, 98–103.
Piancastelli, M. (2001). “Measuring the Tax Effort of Developed and Developing Countries, Cross Country Panel Data Analysis ---- 1985/95,” Discussion Paper, IPEA, Rio deJaneiro.
Shin, K. (1969). “International Difference in Tax Ratio,” The Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 51, pp. 213-220.
Stotsky, Janet G., and Asegedech WoldeMariam, (1997), “Tax Effort in Sub-Saharan Africa,” IMF Working Paper 97/107 (Washington: International Monetary Fund).
Tanzi, Vito (1992). “Structural Factors and Tax Revenue in Developing Countries: A Decade of Evidence”,in: I. Goldin and L. A. Winters (eds.), Open Economies: Structural Adjustment and Agriculture.Cambridge: Cambridge University Press: 267-281.
Wu, Wen-Chieh and Cheng, Hui-Pei (2010),“Symmetric Mortality and Asymmetric Suicide Cycles”, Social Science and Medicine, 70, 1974-1981.
描述 碩士
國立政治大學
財政研究所
98255025
99
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0098255025
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 羅光達zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) 吳明彥zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) 吳明彥zh_TW
dc.date (日期) 2010en_US
dc.date.accessioned 29-Sep-2011 18:33:08 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 29-Sep-2011 18:33:08 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 29-Sep-2011 18:33:08 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0098255025en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/51044-
dc.description (描述) 碩士zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 財政研究所zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 98255025zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 99zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) 我國地方政府租稅努力程度有普遍不足的現象,且稅收會隨景氣波動呈現不穩定的情況。本篇文章的研究目的,從土地稅租稅努力角度切入,來探討總體景氣波動對於我國地方政府租稅努力程度的影響,並進一步分析景氣繁榮與衰退期間對我國租稅努力是否具有不對稱效果。除此之外,本文建立迴歸計量模型,配合1982年到2009年我國總體經濟的時間序列資料,來驗證總體經濟變數以及景氣波動對於我國租稅努力的影響,是呈現正向或反向循環關係,以及景氣波動對租稅努力是否有不對稱影響。
     本文主要的結論有兩點,第一點可由迴歸結果中證明,無論是單獨探討景氣波動的影響效果,或是放入其他總體變數所建構較完整的模型之下,都顯示總體景氣衰退期間的失業率,和全國土地稅租稅努力呈現負向關係,而實證結果也證明我國總體經濟景氣波動與土地稅租稅努力呈現正循環,也就是同方向變動的關係,表示我國地方政府在面臨景氣衰退期間,對於土地租的努力程度較低,而在景氣繁榮期間的土地稅租稅努力則較高。本文的第二發現,乃是若將景氣波動分為繁榮與衰退期間,可發現景氣衰退期間影響大於景氣繁榮期間,這也表示總體景氣於衰退期間對於土地稅租稅努力程度的影響效果較大。且經由Wald test的檢測結果中可看出總體景氣的繁榮與衰退期間對我國土地稅租稅努力有不對稱影響,故可推論景氣好壞會影響地方政府的租稅努力行為。據此,在地方政府自主性增加之後,地方政府需要更有目地的提升自我租稅努力程度,若地方政府能夠判斷景氣波動對財政造成的影響,或許可制定輔合時宜的租稅政策。
zh_TW
dc.description.tableofcontents 第一章 緒論...........1
     第一節 研究背景與動機............1
     第二節 研究目的與研究架構........6
     第二章 文獻回顧.................8
     第一節 租稅努力相關文獻..........8
     第二節 景氣不對稱性相關文獻......16
     第三章 我國土地稅制度介紹........19
     第一節 地價稅...................19
     第二節 土地增值稅...............25
     第三節 土地稅對地方政府的重要性...29
     第四章 實證模型.................35
     第一節 研究方法及實證模型........35
     第二節 變數設定與資料來源........42
     第三節 實證結果.................49
     第五章 結論與建議...............60
     第一節 主要發現.................60
     第二節 政策建議與研究限制........61
     參考文獻.........................64
zh_TW
dc.language.iso en_US-
dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0098255025en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 總體景氣循環zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 租稅努力zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 地價稅zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 土地增值稅zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 不對稱影響zh_TW
dc.title (題名) 總體景氣波動對我國地方政府租稅努力之不對稱影響-以土地稅為例zh_TW
dc.type (資料類型) thesisen
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 中文部分zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 李新仁(1987),《地方政府財政能力與租稅努力之研究》,碩士論文,政治大學財政研究所。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 林健次、蔡吉源(2003),《地方財政自我負責機制與財政收支劃分》,公共行政學報,第9期,頁1-33。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 陳佳利(2006),《景氣波動不對稱傳遞效果之實證研究》,碩士論文,東華大學國際經濟研究所。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 陳曉瑩(2002),《台灣地區以土地稅作為地方主要財源之研究》,碩士論文,成功大學都市計劃研究所。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 高銘駿(2005),《臺灣銀行業的資本適足性與景氣循環之關係》,碩士論文,國立雲林科技大學財務金融研究所。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 翁百郁(2004),《期間利差、股票報酬與景氣循環關聯性之探討》,碩士論文,淡江大學財務金融研究所。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 許雯(2010),《總體景氣波動對銀行不良債權比率之不對稱性影響》,碩士論文,政治大學財政研究所。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 黃耀輝(2006),《中央統籌分配稅款對調節地方財政之成效評估》,行政院研考會委託研究報告。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 黃建興(2001),《地方財政努力之分析》,財稅研究,33卷5期,頁47-55。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 曾巨威(2001),《如何透過中央統籌分配稅款及補助款之分配激勵地方政府開闢財源》,行政院研究發展考核委員會研究計畫。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 行政院經濟建設委員會健全經社法規工作小組(1988),『平均地權條例之立法沿革及理由』,台北:編者。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 鄧凱方(2007),《金融自由化與經濟景氣對所得過度敏感性之再探討》,碩士論文,國立清華大學統計學研究所。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 鄭閔華(2001),《中央統籌分配稅款之模擬分析》,碩士論文,政治大學財政研究所。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 賴麗仙(2003),《估測我國財政能力與租稅努力之研究》,碩士論文,逢甲大學會計與財稅研究所。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 英文部分zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Alm, James, Jorge Martinez-Vazquez and Friedich Schneider (2004), “Sizing the Problem of the Hard-To-Tax.” paper presented at the “Hard to Tax: An International Perspective.” In Alm, J., J. Martinez-Vazquez, and S. Wallace (eds.), Taxing the Hard-to-Tax. Amsterdam: Elsevier Publisher.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Bahl, R. W. (1971)“A regression approach to tax effort and tax ratio analysis. IMF Staff Papers, n. 18, p. 570-607.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Bahl R.W.(2003), “Reaching the hardest to tax: Consequences and possibilities”, paper presented at the “Hard to Tax: An international Perspective” conference, Andrew Young School of Policy Studies, Georgia State University.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Bird, Richard and François Vaillancourt (1998) Fiscal Decentralization in Developing Countries Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1998, 318 pages.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Chelliah, R. J. (1971). “Trends in Taxation in Developing Countries,” IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 18, No. 2, pp.254-325.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Chelliah, Raja J., Hessel J. Baas, and Margaret R. Kelly (1975), “Tax Ratios and Tax Effort in Developing Countries,” Staff Papers, International Monetary Fund, Vol.2, pp. 187-205.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Dickey, D. A. and W. A. Fuller (1981), “Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root.” Econometrica, 49, 1057-1072.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Eltony, M. N. (2002)“Measuring Tax Effort in Arab Countries”. Arab Planning Institute, Kuwait.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Hodrick, R., and E.P. Prescott (1997),“PostwarBusiness Cycles: An Empirical Investigation,” Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, 29(1), 1–16.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Leuthold, J. H. (1991). “Tax Shares in Developing Economies: A Panel Study,” Journal of Development Economics, Vol. 35, pp. 173-185.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Lotz, J. R. and E. R. Morss (1967). “Measuring ‘Tax Effort’ in Developing Countries,” IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 14, pp. 478-499.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Lotz, J. R. and E. R. Morss (1970). “A Theory of Tax Level Determinants for Developing Countries,” Economic Development and Cultural Change, Vol. 18, pp. 328-341.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Lutfunnahar, Begum (2007). “A Panel Study on Tax Effort and Tax Buoyancy with Special Reference to Bangladesh”, Working Paper 715: Policy Analysis Unit (PAU) Research Department Bangladesh Bank.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Musgrave, R.A. (1969). Fiscal Systems, New Haven: Yale University Press.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Okun, A. M.(1962), “Potential GNP: ItsMeasurement and Significance.” in American Statistical Association (ed.), Proceedings of the Business and Economic Statistics Section, 98–103.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Piancastelli, M. (2001). “Measuring the Tax Effort of Developed and Developing Countries, Cross Country Panel Data Analysis ---- 1985/95,” Discussion Paper, IPEA, Rio deJaneiro.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Shin, K. (1969). “International Difference in Tax Ratio,” The Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 51, pp. 213-220.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Stotsky, Janet G., and Asegedech WoldeMariam, (1997), “Tax Effort in Sub-Saharan Africa,” IMF Working Paper 97/107 (Washington: International Monetary Fund).zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Tanzi, Vito (1992). “Structural Factors and Tax Revenue in Developing Countries: A Decade of Evidence”,in: I. Goldin and L. A. Winters (eds.), Open Economies: Structural Adjustment and Agriculture.Cambridge: Cambridge University Press: 267-281.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Wu, Wen-Chieh and Cheng, Hui-Pei (2010),“Symmetric Mortality and Asymmetric Suicide Cycles”, Social Science and Medicine, 70, 1974-1981.zh_TW