dc.contributor.advisor | 黃智聰 | zh_TW |
dc.contributor.author (作者) | 許怡君 | zh_TW |
dc.creator (作者) | 許怡君 | zh_TW |
dc.date (日期) | 2010 | en_US |
dc.date.accessioned | 29-九月-2011 18:33:35 (UTC+8) | - |
dc.date.available | 29-九月-2011 18:33:35 (UTC+8) | - |
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) | 29-九月-2011 18:33:35 (UTC+8) | - |
dc.identifier (其他 識別碼) | G0098921004 | en_US |
dc.identifier.uri (URI) | http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/51062 | - |
dc.description (描述) | 碩士 | zh_TW |
dc.description (描述) | 國立政治大學 | zh_TW |
dc.description (描述) | 行政管理碩士學程 | zh_TW |
dc.description (描述) | 98921004 | zh_TW |
dc.description (描述) | 99 | zh_TW |
dc.description.abstract (摘要) | 隨著高度的經濟發展,對於溫室氣體的排放逐年遞增,進一步造成了溫室效應以及全球暖化的現象。而全球暖化造成的影響除了極地冰原融化,海平面上升,淹沒較低窪的沿海陸地,衝擊低地國及多數國家沿海精華區。也造成全球氣候變遷,導致不正常暴雨、乾旱現象以及沙漠化現象擴大,對於生態體系、水土資源、經濟成長與生命安全等都會造成傷害。 文獻上對於經濟成長造成的碳排放量增加,導致溫室效應的研究比比皆是,但是對於全球暖化導致的氣候變遷,對於經濟成長的影響卻是寥寥可數。尤其中國作為世界最大、經濟成長最快的發展中國家,氣候變遷是否會影響其經濟發展,是本研究相當感興趣的議題。因此,本研究將利用1994-2009年中國各主要城市氣候的追蹤資料,搭配雙因子固定效果模型的估計,希望透過本研究,瞭解並分析中國經濟的發展歷程、現況與未來發展趨勢;分析中國氣候變遷對經濟成長的影響,並提出具體的因應對策。 結果顯示,氣候變遷變數的確會影響中國各省市的經濟成長,表示氣溫越高,對於經濟成長有顯著的負面影響,而且氣溫的穩定性的確會影響經濟成長,符合本研究的假設。接著考慮氣候變遷對於農業產值比重高的地區是否有較大的影響時,發現在農業比重高的地區,降雨量的穩定性會影響經濟成長,也就是說降雨量越不穩定,越不利於經濟成長。若將中國各省市區分為沿海與非沿海地區,也大致得到上述結果。而本研究所得到的結論,證明了氣候變遷對於經濟成長有顯著負面的影響,未來將會是中國追求高度經濟成長所面臨的嚴峻考驗。 | zh_TW |
dc.description.tableofcontents | 第一章 緒論 1 第一節 研究背景與目的 1 第二節 研究架構與研究流程 6 第二章 文獻回顧 8 第一節 氣候變遷的定義及其成因 8 第二節 氣候變遷的影響與因應 12 第三節 氣候變遷與經濟成長之相關文獻 20 第四節 本章小節 24 第三章 中國氣候變遷與經濟發展歷程與現況 26 第一節 中國氣候變遷的歷程與現況 26 第二節 中國氣候變遷影響經濟發展的現況分析 33 第三節 本章小節 40 第四章 研究設計 42 第一節 研究方法說明 42 第二節 資料來源與實證模型設定 45 第三節 實證變數假設 48 第四節 本章小節 51 第五章 實證結果與模型檢定 53 第一節 實證結果分析 53 第二節 實證模型正確性之檢定 60 第三節 本章小節 63 第六章 結論與政策意涵 66 第一節 結論 66 第二節 政策意涵 68 | zh_TW |
dc.language.iso | en_US | - |
dc.source.uri (資料來源) | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0098921004 | en_US |
dc.subject (關鍵詞) | 中國 | zh_TW |
dc.subject (關鍵詞) | 氣候變遷 | zh_TW |
dc.subject (關鍵詞) | 經濟成長 | zh_TW |
dc.subject (關鍵詞) | 雙因子固定效果模型 | zh_TW |
dc.title (題名) | 中國氣候變遷對經濟成長影響之研究 | zh_TW |
dc.title (題名) | The impacts of climate change on China’s economic growth | en_US |
dc.type (資料類型) | thesis | en |
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