台灣政黨體系的變遷：1986-2008

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題名	台灣政黨體系的變遷：1986-2008 The changing process of Taiwan`s party system:1986-2008
作者	莊天憐 Chuang, Tien Lien
貢獻者	劉義周 Liu, I Chou 莊天憐 Chuang, Tien Lien
關鍵詞	政黨體系政黨體系變遷社會分歧政治菁英選舉制度 party system the change of party system social cleavage political elites electoral system
日期	2010
上傳時間	5-Oct-2011 14:49:20 (UTC+8)
摘要	本文討論焦點在於台灣政黨體系的變遷過程，影響台灣政黨體系變遷的因素，以及台灣政黨體系未來的可能走向。分別使用社會分歧理論、政治菁英理論以及制度論來解釋台灣政黨體系的變遷過程，並由各政黨在選舉結果的消長與選民政黨認同的變化兩個指標來觀察我國政黨體系的變遷。試圖建構一個通用的模式來解釋我國政黨體系發展的過程，以預期台灣政黨體系發展的未來走向。經過全面觀察各政黨選舉結果的消長，以及選民政黨認同的變動情形之後，本文發現台灣政黨體系的變遷，主要發生在四個重要的時間點，第一個時間點是1986年民進黨的成立，第二個時間點是1993年新黨的成立，第三個時間點是2000年親民黨的成立與2001年台聯的成立，第四個時間點則是立委選制改變後的2008年立委選舉。在變動的因素方面，雖然每一個變遷的時間點都有新政黨的出現，但是民進黨的出現是整個憲政環境由威權時期轉成民主化的結果，而新黨、親民黨與台聯則都是政治菁英之間的分裂。2008年主要是選舉制度的影響，不但新成立的政黨無法生存，連原有的小黨也都消失無蹤。在穩定不變的因素方面，在台灣的政黨體系整個變遷的過程裡面，藍綠的區分一直都存在著。在藍綠對抗的主軸之下，台灣的政黨體系受到省籍、統獨立場以及國家認同等因素混合在內的分歧結構的長期影響，泛綠基本上掌握三成左右的基本盤，泛藍則是有四成出頭的支持度，中間還有二成多搖擺不定的部分，這個部分就是藍綠角逐的關鍵所在。這個藍綠對抗中第一個最重要的因素就是混雜了統獨立場、國家認同與省籍在內的社會與議題分歧，其次是政治菁英在歷次選舉過程中不斷地去操作這個分歧結構，藉此找到新政黨在意識型態光譜上的定位點，再加上SNTV選制容許小黨有生存空間，因此台灣的政黨體系隨之產生變遷。最後到了2008年，選舉制度的變革發揮了決定性的影響，使得我國的政黨體系確立為兩黨制。在未來的發展趨勢上，研究發現，無論就政黨得票率、政黨支持度以及選舉制度的層面來看，國民黨似乎已經逐漸取回過半的優勢，民進黨則回到四成左右的基本盤。在沒有新議題或是新的政治社會分歧足以重新切割現有政黨體系之下，在目前雙首長制的憲政架構以及單一選區兩票制的國會選舉制度之下，我們預期政治菁英們的互動將朝向由國民黨代表泛藍勢力，民進黨代表泛綠勢力的兩黨政治體系逐步鞏固的方向前進。 The main theme of this thesis focuses on the changing process of Taiwan’s party system, the factors which effecting the changing process of Taiwan’s party system, and the trend of Taiwan’s party system in the future. The author use social cleavage theory、political elite theory and institutional theory to explain the changing process of Taiwan’s party system. The author also uses two indexes including the vote-share of each party in every election, and the changing of voter’s party identification to observe the changing of Taiwan’s party system. This thesis tries to build a general model to explain the developing process of Taiwan’s party system and predict the future trend of Taiwan’s party system. After observing the election outcomes of each party and the changing of voter’s party identification, this thesis points out four important time points of Taiwan’s party system changing. The first time point is the presence of DPP in 1986, the second time point is the presence of NP in 1993, the third time point is the presence of PFP in 2000 and the presence of TSU in 2001, the fourth time point is the changing of electoral rule of legislative election in 2008. About the changing factor, in spite of the new party presence in each changing time point, the presence of DPP is due to the constitutional environment which the authoritarian regime transferred into democracy. The presence of NP、PFP and TSU are the outcome of the separation of political elites. The changing of party system in 2008 is mainly effected by electoral system, not only the new parties can’t survive, but the existing small parties also disappear. About the stable factor, during the changing process of Taiwan’s party system, there’s always a clearly distinction between “blue” and ”green”. Underneath the main stream of the confrontation between “blue” and “green”, Taiwan’s party system has long been effected by the cleavage structure which mixed with ethnic origin、unification or independent with china and national identity. The pan-green group basically maintains about 30% of vote share, the pan-blue group has more than 40% of vote share, the remaining 20% more of vote share is the key point for the struggle of pan-green and pan-blue forces. The most important factor in this confrontation process is the social and issue cleavage mixed with ethnic origin、unification or independent with china and national identity. Meanwhile the political elites are consequently manipulating the cleavage structure in every election process, in order to find some spaces in the ideological spectrum to form new parties. In addition to the SNTV electoral system allows small parties to appear and survive. That’s the reason why Taiwan’s party system changes over time. But in 2008, the changing of electoral system has the decisive influence and turn Taiwan’s party system into the two-party system. In the trend of future development, the research shows that, no matter in party’s vote share、party support rate or electoral system, KMT seems gradually having a leading advantage to get more than 50% of vote share. DPP has about 40% of vote share. If no more new issue or political-social cleavages to cut the existing party system, in the two-head executive constitutional structure and MMM electoral system, the interactions of political elites will tend to a consolidation of the two-party system which including a pan-blue force presented by KMT, and a pan-green force presented by DPP.
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描述	博士國立政治大學政治研究所 902525013 99
資料來源	http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0902525013
資料類型	thesis

dc.contributor.advisor	劉義周	zh_TW
dc.contributor.advisor	Liu, I Chou	en_US
dc.contributor.author (Authors)	莊天憐	zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors)	Chuang, Tien Lien	en_US
dc.creator (作者)	莊天憐	zh_TW
dc.creator (作者)	Chuang, Tien Lien	en_US
dc.date (日期)	2010	en_US
dc.date.accessioned	5-Oct-2011 14:49:20 (UTC+8)	-
dc.date.available	5-Oct-2011 14:49:20 (UTC+8)	-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間)	5-Oct-2011 14:49:20 (UTC+8)	-
dc.identifier (Other Identifiers)	G0902525013	en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI)	http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/51381	-
dc.description (描述)	博士	zh_TW
dc.description (描述)	國立政治大學	zh_TW
dc.description (描述)	政治研究所	zh_TW
dc.description (描述)	902525013	zh_TW
dc.description (描述)	99	zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要)	本文討論焦點在於台灣政黨體系的變遷過程，影響台灣政黨體系變遷的因素，以及台灣政黨體系未來的可能走向。分別使用社會分歧理論、政治菁英理論以及制度論來解釋台灣政黨體系的變遷過程，並由各政黨在選舉結果的消長與選民政黨認同的變化兩個指標來觀察我國政黨體系的變遷。試圖建構一個通用的模式來解釋我國政黨體系發展的過程，以預期台灣政黨體系發展的未來走向。經過全面觀察各政黨選舉結果的消長，以及選民政黨認同的變動情形之後，本文發現台灣政黨體系的變遷，主要發生在四個重要的時間點，第一個時間點是1986年民進黨的成立，第二個時間點是1993年新黨的成立，第三個時間點是2000年親民黨的成立與2001年台聯的成立，第四個時間點則是立委選制改變後的2008年立委選舉。在變動的因素方面，雖然每一個變遷的時間點都有新政黨的出現，但是民進黨的出現是整個憲政環境由威權時期轉成民主化的結果，而新黨、親民黨與台聯則都是政治菁英之間的分裂。2008年主要是選舉制度的影響，不但新成立的政黨無法生存，連原有的小黨也都消失無蹤。在穩定不變的因素方面，在台灣的政黨體系整個變遷的過程裡面，藍綠的區分一直都存在著。在藍綠對抗的主軸之下，台灣的政黨體系受到省籍、統獨立場以及國家認同等因素混合在內的分歧結構的長期影響，泛綠基本上掌握三成左右的基本盤，泛藍則是有四成出頭的支持度，中間還有二成多搖擺不定的部分，這個部分就是藍綠角逐的關鍵所在。這個藍綠對抗中第一個最重要的因素就是混雜了統獨立場、國家認同與省籍在內的社會與議題分歧，其次是政治菁英在歷次選舉過程中不斷地去操作這個分歧結構，藉此找到新政黨在意識型態光譜上的定位點，再加上SNTV選制容許小黨有生存空間，因此台灣的政黨體系隨之產生變遷。最後到了2008年，選舉制度的變革發揮了決定性的影響，使得我國的政黨體系確立為兩黨制。在未來的發展趨勢上，研究發現，無論就政黨得票率、政黨支持度以及選舉制度的層面來看，國民黨似乎已經逐漸取回過半的優勢，民進黨則回到四成左右的基本盤。在沒有新議題或是新的政治社會分歧足以重新切割現有政黨體系之下，在目前雙首長制的憲政架構以及單一選區兩票制的國會選舉制度之下，我們預期政治菁英們的互動將朝向由國民黨代表泛藍勢力，民進黨代表泛綠勢力的兩黨政治體系逐步鞏固的方向前進。	zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要)	The main theme of this thesis focuses on the changing process of Taiwan’s party system, the factors which effecting the changing process of Taiwan’s party system, and the trend of Taiwan’s party system in the future. The author use social cleavage theory、political elite theory and institutional theory to explain the changing process of Taiwan’s party system. The author also uses two indexes including the vote-share of each party in every election, and the changing of voter’s party identification to observe the changing of Taiwan’s party system. This thesis tries to build a general model to explain the developing process of Taiwan’s party system and predict the future trend of Taiwan’s party system. After observing the election outcomes of each party and the changing of voter’s party identification, this thesis points out four important time points of Taiwan’s party system changing. The first time point is the presence of DPP in 1986, the second time point is the presence of NP in 1993, the third time point is the presence of PFP in 2000 and the presence of TSU in 2001, the fourth time point is the changing of electoral rule of legislative election in 2008. About the changing factor, in spite of the new party presence in each changing time point, the presence of DPP is due to the constitutional environment which the authoritarian regime transferred into democracy. The presence of NP、PFP and TSU are the outcome of the separation of political elites. The changing of party system in 2008 is mainly effected by electoral system, not only the new parties can’t survive, but the existing small parties also disappear. About the stable factor, during the changing process of Taiwan’s party system, there’s always a clearly distinction between “blue” and ”green”. Underneath the main stream of the confrontation between “blue” and “green”, Taiwan’s party system has long been effected by the cleavage structure which mixed with ethnic origin、unification or independent with china and national identity. The pan-green group basically maintains about 30% of vote share, the pan-blue group has more than 40% of vote share, the remaining 20% more of vote share is the key point for the struggle of pan-green and pan-blue forces. The most important factor in this confrontation process is the social and issue cleavage mixed with ethnic origin、unification or independent with china and national identity. Meanwhile the political elites are consequently manipulating the cleavage structure in every election process, in order to find some spaces in the ideological spectrum to form new parties. In addition to the SNTV electoral system allows small parties to appear and survive. That’s the reason why Taiwan’s party system changes over time. But in 2008, the changing of electoral system has the decisive influence and turn Taiwan’s party system into the two-party system. In the trend of future development, the research shows that, no matter in party’s vote share、party support rate or electoral system, KMT seems gradually having a leading advantage to get more than 50% of vote share. DPP has about 40% of vote share. If no more new issue or political-social cleavages to cut the existing party system, in the two-head executive constitutional structure and MMM electoral system, the interactions of political elites will tend to a consolidation of the two-party system which including a pan-blue force presented by KMT, and a pan-green force presented by DPP.	en_US
dc.description.tableofcontents	第一章緒論…………………………………………………………………………1 第一節研究動機與目的………………………………………………………1 第二節文獻檢閱………………………………………………………………4 一、政黨體系及其變遷…………………………………………………4 二、政黨體系變遷的解釋……………………………………………..16 三、影響台灣政黨體系變遷的原因…………………………………..27 第三節研究架構、研究方法與論文章節……………………………………29 一、研究架構…………………………………………………………..29 二、研究方法…………………………………………………………..33 三、章節安排……………………………………………......................35 第二章台灣政黨體系變遷的歷程………………………………………………..37 第一節從選舉結果看政黨體系的變遷………………………… ………….37 一、政黨得票分佈的變遷………………………………… ………….37 二、「北藍南綠」的檢視……………………………………………..42 三、縣市藍綠得票的變遷：若干實例的討論…………………………50 第二節從民眾政黨認同的變化看政黨體系的變遷………………………..62 一、台灣民眾政黨認同分佈的變化…………………………………..62 二、藍綠政黨認同分佈的變化………………………………………..65 三、縣市藍綠政黨認同的變化：若干實例的討論……………………66 第三節政黨國會席次分佈的變化………….………………………………72 一、各政黨國會席次的變化情形(1986-2008)………………………..72 二、有效政黨數的變化情形(1986-2008)……………………………..74 第四節小結………………………………………………………………….75 第三章政黨的社會基礎與政黨體系的變遷……………………………………78 第一節各政黨選民基礎的變化…………………………………………….78 一、各政黨選民基礎的差異………………………………………….78 二、各政黨選民基礎的變化………………………………………….79 三、影響政黨體系的選民基礎差異………………………………….81 第二節「台灣人/中國人認同」的變化……………………………………82 一、台灣選民「台灣人/中國人認同」的整體變化…………………83 二、泛藍選民「台灣人/中國人認同」的變化………………………84 三、泛綠選民「台灣人/中國人認同」的變化………………………85 四、影響選民「台灣人/中國人認同」變化的因素…………………86 第三節統獨立場的變化…………………………………………………….88 一、台灣選民統獨立場的整體變化……………….…………………89 二、泛藍選民統獨立場的變化…………………….…………………90 三、泛綠選民統獨立場的變化…………………….…………………90 四、影響選民統獨立場變化的因素………………………………….91 第四節政黨形象的變化……………………………………………………..93 一、各政黨的政黨形象……………….……………………………….94 二、國民黨與民進黨政黨形象的變化……………….……………….95 三、政黨形象與選舉結果的關連……………………………………..99 第五節小結…………………………………………………………………101 第四章社會與政治分歧………………………………………………………...103 第一節台灣的社會與政治分歧…………………………………………..104 一、省籍分歧、統獨立場、國家認同與民主價值……………………104 二、社會分歧與新政黨的出現………………………………………105 第二節社會與政治分歧和台灣政黨體系的發展…………………………106 一、民主價值……………….……………….......................................107 二、省籍分歧…………………………………………………………108 三、統獨立場…………………………………………………………111 第三節社會與政治分歧和藍綠對抗的主軸………………………………117 一、民進黨的支持基礎………………………………………………117 二、新黨的支持基礎…………………………………………………121 三、親民黨的支持基礎………………………………………………131 四、台聯的支持基礎…………………………………………………139 第四節小結…………………………………………………………………143 第五章政治菁英的互動………………………………………………………...146 第一節政治菁英互動與政黨體系的變遷…………………………………146 一、政治菁英互動對政黨體系變遷的影響：以韓國為例…………147 二、台灣政治菁英的互動與政黨體系的發展………………………148 第二節政治菁英互動和台灣政黨體系的發展歷程………………………149 一、威權體制的解體與台灣的政治民主化…………………………149 二、新國民黨連線的出走……………………………………………154 三、國民黨的內部紛爭與宋楚瑜的脫黨參選………………………157 四、李登輝的出走與國民黨的再度分裂……………………………160 第三節政治菁英互動和藍綠對抗的主軸…………………………………163 一、政治菁英的互動與民進黨的興起………………………………163 二、政治菁英和新黨的興起與沒落…………………………………168 三、政治菁英和親民黨的興起與沒落………………………………171 四、政治菁英和台聯的興起與沒落…………………………………185 第四節小結…………………………………………………………………193 第六章憲政體制與選舉制度對政黨體系的影響………………………………196 第一節雙重行政首長制、SNTV選制與台灣政黨體系…………………196 一、雙重行政首長制對我國政黨體系的影響………………………196 二、 SNTV制對我國政黨體系的影響………………………………198 第二節單一選區兩票制對政黨體系的影響………………………………200 一、單一選區兩票聯立制在德國的影響……………………………201 二、單一選區兩票並立制在日本的影響……………………………202 第三節新選制對政治菁英的影響…………………………………………205 一、單一選區相對多數決對政治菁英行為的影響…………………205 二、兩票制對政治菁英的影響………………………………………208 三、立委選制變革對選舉結果的影響………………………………209 第四節新選制對民眾的影響……………………………………................212 一、選民對小黨能否跨越選舉門檻缺乏信心………………………213 二、選民的策略性投票………………………………………………214 三、立委選制變革對選民政黨認同的影響…………………………216 四、立委選制變革與策略性投票……………………………………217 第五節小結…………………………………………………………………222 第七章結論………………………………………………………………………225 第一節主要研究發現………………………………………………………225 一、台灣政黨體系變遷的時間點……………………………………225 二、台灣政黨體系變遷過程與各階段的影響因素..……………......227 三、影響台灣政黨體系變遷的因素…...…………………………….228 第二節檢討與建議…………………………………………………………232 一、研究設計方面……………………………………………………233 二、研究資料方面……………………………………………………233 三、研究方法方面……………………………………………………233 參考書目……………………………………………………………………………235 附錄一國家發展研究院政治版圖說明…………………………………………260 附錄二三次總統大選選前政治版圖分類標準(2000-2008) …………………...263 附錄三各縣市歷年藍綠得票分佈一覽表(1991-2008)…………………………274 附錄四各縣市歷年政黨認同一覽表(1997-2008)………………………………275 附錄五各縣市歷年政黨認同彙整表(1997-2008) ……………………………...287 附錄六深度訪談報告列表(1997-2001)…………………………………………288	zh_TW
dc.language.iso	en_US	-
dc.source.uri (資料來源)	http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0902525013	en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞)	政黨體系	zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞)	政黨體系變遷	zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞)	社會分歧	zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞)	政治菁英	zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞)	選舉制度	zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞)	party system	en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞)	the change of party system	en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞)	social cleavage	en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞)	political elites	en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞)	electoral system	en_US
dc.title (題名)	台灣政黨體系的變遷：1986-2008	zh_TW
dc.title (題名)	The changing process of Taiwan`s party system:1986-2008	en_US
dc.type (資料類型)	thesis	en
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