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題名 債券市場從眾行為之研究
Herding in bond market
作者 蔡宗穎
貢獻者 胡聯國
蔡宗穎
關鍵詞 從眾行為
債券市場
herding
bond market
日期 2009
上傳時間 11-Oct-2011 16:49:00 (UTC+8)
摘要 本研究旨在檢視債券市場有無從眾行為產生的現象,並進一步探討其可能產生從眾現象的原因。首先,嘗試將財務工程,在滿足平睹過程下所計算出來債券應有的真實價格,並利用Keynes選美競爭的概念作結合。一般的債券市場存在著兩種交易者,一為同時擁有私人訊息和公開市場資訊的交易者,另一為只具有公開市場資訊的交易者,在資訊不對稱的條件下,兩種交易者的交易策略皆是利用有條件下的理性預期去估算債券的市場價格,然而發現到債券的市場價格會受到本身的真實價格、公開市場資訊和債券的供給衝擊等因素所影響。
最後,由研究模型發現,會不會導致債券市場存在從眾行為的最主要因素,就是債券交易者所擁有的利率行為方程式,藉由利率方程式選取的外生變數,比較會影響債券市場價格因素的權重大小,加以判斷會產生從眾行為的條件。
The objective of this study is to examine the bond market, the phenomenon of herd behavior, and to further explore the possible reasons for the phenomenon of conformity. First, try to combine competitive advantage of Keynes’s concept of beauty contests and the real bond price which satisfies martingale process Bond market in general there are two kinds of traders, one has both public information and private information, the other has only public information. Under conditions of asymmetric information, two kinds of traders’ trading strategies are the use of rational expectations under conditions to estimate the bond’s market price. However, we can find that there are some factors which affect the bond’s market price. Like bond’s true value, public information and supply shock.
Finally, the model is found by the study will not lead to herd behavior bond market the most important factor is the interest rate behavior equation owned by traders. We select the exogenous variables which to compare their weight in order to determine the conditions of herd behavior.
參考文獻 Allen, F., S. Morris and H. S. Shin(2003), “Public Signals and Private Information Acquisition in Asset Prices”, in progress.
Allen, F., S. Morris, and A. Postlewaite, (1993),“Finite bubbles with short sale constraints and asymmetric information”, Journal of Economic Theory, vol.61, pp.206-229.
Banerjee, A.(1992), “A Simple Model of Herding Behavior”, Quarterly Journal of Economics, vol.107, pp.797-817.
Bikhchandani, S., Hirshleifer, D. and Welch, I.(1992), “A Theory of Fads, Fashion, Custom, and Cultural Changes as Informational Cascades”, Journal of Political Economy, vol.100, pp.992-1026.
Black, F. (1986), “Noise”, Journal of Finance, vol.41,pp. 529-543.
Brown D. and R. Jennings(1989), “On Technical Analysis”, Review of Financial Studies vol.2, pp.527-551.
Chamley, C. and D. Gale(1994), “Information Revelation and Strategic Delay in a Model of Investment”, Econometrica, vol.62,pp.1065-1085.
Chang, E. C., Cheng, J. W. and Khorana, A. (2000), “An examination of herd behavior in equity market: An international perspective”, Journal of Banking and Finance, vol.24, pp.1651-1679.
Choe, H. B. Kho and R. Stulz, (1999), “Do foreign investor destabilize stock markets? The Korean experience in 1997”, Journal of Financial Economics, vol.54(2), pp.227-264.
Chowdhry, B. and V. Nanda(1991), “Multimarket Trading and Market Liquidity”, The Review of Financial Studies1991 vol.4(3), pp.483-511.
Cristie, W. G. and Huang, R. D. (1995), “Following the pied piper:Do individual returns herd around the market?”, Financial Analysts Journal ,vol.51, pp.31-37.
Devenow, A. (1996), “Rational herding in financial economics”, European Economic Review 40(1996) pp.603-615.
Froot, K. A.,Scharfstein, D. S. and Stein, J. C.(1992), “Herd on the Street: Informational Inefficiencies in a Market with Short-Term Speculation”, Journal of Finance,vol.147, pp.1461-1484.
Grahams, J. (1999), “Herding among Investment Newsletters: Theory and Evidence”, Journal of Finance vol.54, pp.237-268.
Grundy, B. and M. McNichols(1989), “Trade and Revelation of Information through Prices and Direct Disclosure”, Review of Financial Studies vol.2, pp.495-526.
He, H. and J. Wang(1995), “Differential Information and Dynamic Behavior of Stock Trading Volume”, Review of Financial Studies vol.8, pp.914-972.
Keynes, J. M.(1936), “The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money”, Macmillan London.
Lakonishok , J.,A. Shleifer and R.W. Vishny(1992), “The impact of institutional trading on stock prices, Journal of Financial Economics,vol.32, pp.23-43.
Lin, T., Thomas C. C., Joseph R. M. and Edward N. (2007), “Herding behavior in Chinese stock markets: an examination of A and B shares”, Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, In Press, Accepted Manuscript.
Maug, E. and N. Naik(1995), “Herding and delegated portfolio management: The impact of relative performance evaluation on asset allocation”, Working Paper (London Business School, London).
Morris S. and H. Shin(2002), “The Social Value of Public Information”, American Economic Review, vol.92,pp.1521-1534.
Scharfstein, D. S. and Stein, J.C.(1990), “Herd Behavior and Investment”, American Economic Review, vol.80, pp.465-479.
Shiller, R. (2000), “Irrational Exuberance”, Princeton: Princeton University Press.
Singleton, K. (1987), “Asset Prices in a Time-Series Model with Disparately Informed, Competitive Traders”, in New Approaches to Monetary Economic Theory and Econometrics eds.
Wermers, R. (1999), “Mutual Fund Herding and the Impact on Stock Prices”, The Journal of Finance, vol.54(2), pp.581-622.
Zhang, J.(1997), “Strategic Delay and the Onset of Investment Cascades”, RAND Journal of Economics, vol.28, pp.188-205.
吳孟君,2000,“共同基金從眾行為與價格發現之研究",國立中正大學碩士論文。
林雋琦,2001,“國內共同基金從眾現象及原因分析”,國立雲林科技大學碩士論文。
徐偉翔,2005,“投資人從眾行為之再檢視-就台灣市場產業別分類之觀察”,國立彰化師範大學商業教育系碩士論文。
陳志宏,2007,“台灣股市從眾行為之分析”,國立中山大學財務管理學系碩士論文。
陳柏宏,2005,“避險者、投機者與散戶的從眾行為-以美國S&P500期貨市場為例”,國立中山大學財務管理學系碩士論文。
陳執中,2006,“投資人之從眾行為與股市崩盤之關係研究”,國立政治大學國際貿易研究所碩士論文。
蘇惟宏,2000,“機構法人從眾行為之研究-國內股市集中交易市場為例”, 國立政治大學企業管理研究所碩士論文。
描述 碩士
國立政治大學
國際經營與貿易研究所
97351008
98
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0097351008
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 胡聯國zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) 蔡宗穎zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) 蔡宗穎zh_TW
dc.date (日期) 2009en_US
dc.date.accessioned 11-Oct-2011 16:49:00 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 11-Oct-2011 16:49:00 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 11-Oct-2011 16:49:00 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0097351008en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/51548-
dc.description (描述) 碩士zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國際經營與貿易研究所zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 97351008zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 98zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) 本研究旨在檢視債券市場有無從眾行為產生的現象,並進一步探討其可能產生從眾現象的原因。首先,嘗試將財務工程,在滿足平睹過程下所計算出來債券應有的真實價格,並利用Keynes選美競爭的概念作結合。一般的債券市場存在著兩種交易者,一為同時擁有私人訊息和公開市場資訊的交易者,另一為只具有公開市場資訊的交易者,在資訊不對稱的條件下,兩種交易者的交易策略皆是利用有條件下的理性預期去估算債券的市場價格,然而發現到債券的市場價格會受到本身的真實價格、公開市場資訊和債券的供給衝擊等因素所影響。
最後,由研究模型發現,會不會導致債券市場存在從眾行為的最主要因素,就是債券交易者所擁有的利率行為方程式,藉由利率方程式選取的外生變數,比較會影響債券市場價格因素的權重大小,加以判斷會產生從眾行為的條件。
zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) The objective of this study is to examine the bond market, the phenomenon of herd behavior, and to further explore the possible reasons for the phenomenon of conformity. First, try to combine competitive advantage of Keynes’s concept of beauty contests and the real bond price which satisfies martingale process Bond market in general there are two kinds of traders, one has both public information and private information, the other has only public information. Under conditions of asymmetric information, two kinds of traders’ trading strategies are the use of rational expectations under conditions to estimate the bond’s market price. However, we can find that there are some factors which affect the bond’s market price. Like bond’s true value, public information and supply shock.
Finally, the model is found by the study will not lead to herd behavior bond market the most important factor is the interest rate behavior equation owned by traders. We select the exogenous variables which to compare their weight in order to determine the conditions of herd behavior.
en_US
dc.description.tableofcontents 第一章 緒論 1
第一節 研究動機 1
第二節 研究目的 2
第三節 研究流程與方法 3
第二章 文獻回顧 5
第一節 從眾行為理論發展 5
第二節 從眾行為的衡量 9
第三章 研究方法 15
第四章 結論與建議 33
第二節 研究限制 34
參考文獻 35
附錄一 40
zh_TW
dc.language.iso en_US-
dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0097351008en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 從眾行為zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 債券市場zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) herdingen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) bond marketen_US
dc.title (題名) 債券市場從眾行為之研究zh_TW
dc.title (題名) Herding in bond marketen_US
dc.type (資料類型) thesisen
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Allen, F., S. Morris and H. S. Shin(2003), “Public Signals and Private Information Acquisition in Asset Prices”, in progress.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Allen, F., S. Morris, and A. Postlewaite, (1993),“Finite bubbles with short sale constraints and asymmetric information”, Journal of Economic Theory, vol.61, pp.206-229.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Banerjee, A.(1992), “A Simple Model of Herding Behavior”, Quarterly Journal of Economics, vol.107, pp.797-817.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Bikhchandani, S., Hirshleifer, D. and Welch, I.(1992), “A Theory of Fads, Fashion, Custom, and Cultural Changes as Informational Cascades”, Journal of Political Economy, vol.100, pp.992-1026.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Black, F. (1986), “Noise”, Journal of Finance, vol.41,pp. 529-543.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Brown D. and R. Jennings(1989), “On Technical Analysis”, Review of Financial Studies vol.2, pp.527-551.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Chamley, C. and D. Gale(1994), “Information Revelation and Strategic Delay in a Model of Investment”, Econometrica, vol.62,pp.1065-1085.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Chang, E. C., Cheng, J. W. and Khorana, A. (2000), “An examination of herd behavior in equity market: An international perspective”, Journal of Banking and Finance, vol.24, pp.1651-1679.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Choe, H. B. Kho and R. Stulz, (1999), “Do foreign investor destabilize stock markets? The Korean experience in 1997”, Journal of Financial Economics, vol.54(2), pp.227-264.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Chowdhry, B. and V. Nanda(1991), “Multimarket Trading and Market Liquidity”, The Review of Financial Studies1991 vol.4(3), pp.483-511.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Cristie, W. G. and Huang, R. D. (1995), “Following the pied piper:Do individual returns herd around the market?”, Financial Analysts Journal ,vol.51, pp.31-37.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Devenow, A. (1996), “Rational herding in financial economics”, European Economic Review 40(1996) pp.603-615.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Froot, K. A.,Scharfstein, D. S. and Stein, J. C.(1992), “Herd on the Street: Informational Inefficiencies in a Market with Short-Term Speculation”, Journal of Finance,vol.147, pp.1461-1484.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Grahams, J. (1999), “Herding among Investment Newsletters: Theory and Evidence”, Journal of Finance vol.54, pp.237-268.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Grundy, B. and M. McNichols(1989), “Trade and Revelation of Information through Prices and Direct Disclosure”, Review of Financial Studies vol.2, pp.495-526.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) He, H. and J. Wang(1995), “Differential Information and Dynamic Behavior of Stock Trading Volume”, Review of Financial Studies vol.8, pp.914-972.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Keynes, J. M.(1936), “The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money”, Macmillan London.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Lakonishok , J.,A. Shleifer and R.W. Vishny(1992), “The impact of institutional trading on stock prices, Journal of Financial Economics,vol.32, pp.23-43.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Lin, T., Thomas C. C., Joseph R. M. and Edward N. (2007), “Herding behavior in Chinese stock markets: an examination of A and B shares”, Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, In Press, Accepted Manuscript.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Maug, E. and N. Naik(1995), “Herding and delegated portfolio management: The impact of relative performance evaluation on asset allocation”, Working Paper (London Business School, London).zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Morris S. and H. Shin(2002), “The Social Value of Public Information”, American Economic Review, vol.92,pp.1521-1534.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Scharfstein, D. S. and Stein, J.C.(1990), “Herd Behavior and Investment”, American Economic Review, vol.80, pp.465-479.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Shiller, R. (2000), “Irrational Exuberance”, Princeton: Princeton University Press.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Singleton, K. (1987), “Asset Prices in a Time-Series Model with Disparately Informed, Competitive Traders”, in New Approaches to Monetary Economic Theory and Econometrics eds.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Wermers, R. (1999), “Mutual Fund Herding and the Impact on Stock Prices”, The Journal of Finance, vol.54(2), pp.581-622.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Zhang, J.(1997), “Strategic Delay and the Onset of Investment Cascades”, RAND Journal of Economics, vol.28, pp.188-205.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 吳孟君,2000,“共同基金從眾行為與價格發現之研究",國立中正大學碩士論文。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 林雋琦,2001,“國內共同基金從眾現象及原因分析”,國立雲林科技大學碩士論文。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 徐偉翔,2005,“投資人從眾行為之再檢視-就台灣市場產業別分類之觀察”,國立彰化師範大學商業教育系碩士論文。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 陳志宏,2007,“台灣股市從眾行為之分析”,國立中山大學財務管理學系碩士論文。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 陳柏宏,2005,“避險者、投機者與散戶的從眾行為-以美國S&P500期貨市場為例”,國立中山大學財務管理學系碩士論文。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 陳執中,2006,“投資人之從眾行為與股市崩盤之關係研究”,國立政治大學國際貿易研究所碩士論文。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 蘇惟宏,2000,“機構法人從眾行為之研究-國內股市集中交易市場為例”, 國立政治大學企業管理研究所碩士論文。zh_TW