| dc.contributor.advisor | 陳信木 | zh_TW |
| dc.contributor.advisor | Chen, Hsin-Mu | en_US |
| dc.contributor.author (Authors) | 黃博群 | zh_TW |
| dc.contributor.author (Authors) | Huang, Po-Chun | en_US |
| dc.creator (作者) | 黃博群 | zh_TW |
| dc.creator (作者) | Huang, Po-Chun | en_US |
| dc.date (日期) | 2009 | en_US |
| dc.date.accessioned | 11-Oct-2011 17:02:27 (UTC+8) | - |
| dc.date.available | 11-Oct-2011 17:02:27 (UTC+8) | - |
| dc.date.issued (上傳時間) | 11-Oct-2011 17:02:27 (UTC+8) | - |
| dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) | G0097254001 | en_US |
| dc.identifier.uri (URI) | http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/51619 | - |
| dc.description (描述) | 碩士 | zh_TW |
| dc.description (描述) | 國立政治大學 | zh_TW |
| dc.description (描述) | 社會學研究所 | zh_TW |
| dc.description (描述) | 97254001 | zh_TW |
| dc.description (描述) | 98 | zh_TW |
| dc.description.abstract (摘要) | 臺灣在二十世紀中完成了人口轉型，特別是生育轉型的幅度與速度最為劇烈。也正因為生育轉型過於成功，臺灣此刻正面臨超低生育率導致的人口衰滅危機。近年來，人口學界針對生育率變遷，熱中於探討生育率的步調（tempo）與數量（quantum）效應，藉此瞭解時期生育率變遷的趨勢。生育步調與數量的分析，本質上仍是時期性測量，未能真正瞭解年輪生育率的變遷，以致對於時期生育率趨勢的分析無法解決根本問題。這個現象，對於臺灣生育率研究特別必須加以處理。然而，臺灣雖然是人口資料的「寶庫」，有關生育的人口統計，卻只有存在於二十世紀下半葉，亦即，二十世紀前半葉的完整生育統計已經無法獲取。本研究試圖結合人口普查、戶籍統計，以及抽樣調查資料，運用參數式模型（parametric mode）和人口轉換（demographic translation）等人口分析方法，嘗試重建二十世紀完整的時期與年輪生育率，藉此，分析年輪生育率與時期生育率之間的變遷關係，最終瞭解未來生育率發展的可能後果。 | zh_TW |
| dc.description.abstract (摘要) | Demographic Transition has been completed during the middle of 20th century in Taiwan, and the extent and speed of transition are spectacularly rapid. Due to the over succeed of the demographic transition, lowest-low fertility pattern has stricken Taiwan society and probably led to a horrible extinction. Recently, in order to project the pattern of fertility rate, demographers endeavored to figure out how tempo and quantum effects contribute to fertility rate.Unfortunately, analysis of tempo and quantum effects is essentially periodic measurement. It leads no way to understand the pattern of cohort fertility in Taiwan. However, although Taiwan’s demographic statistics is well known as the world’s treasure trove, the fertility statistics are available for only 50 years. It means that we are not capable of having the first half 20th century’s fertility rate in Taiwan.We use demographic analytic methods such as parametric mode and demographic translation to analyze combined data which is constituted of census data, vital statistics, and survey data. The object of this research is to re-build the 20th century’s fertility rate in Taiwan. Once we have the intact fertility rate in 20th century, we could realize the pattern of period and cohort fertility transition. Furthermore, we will have a better chance to project Taiwan’s fertility rate in the future. | en_US |
| dc.description.tableofcontents | 致 謝................................................ 壹摘 要................................................ I目 次................................................ i表 次................................................ ii圖 次................................................ iii第壹章 緒論 .......................................... 1第一節、 前言......................................... 1第二節、 研究目的...................................... 3第貳章 文獻回顧 ....................................... 6第一節、 臺灣的人口變遷與生育率測量...................... 6第二節、 臺灣的生育率變遷............................... 9第三節、 探討年輪別生育率的重要性........................ 14第參章 研究設計 ....................................... 16第一節、 資料來源...................................... 16一、內政部戶籍統計 .................................... 16二、人力資源調查─ 婦女婚育與就業附帶調查 ................. 19三、1980年人口普查 .................................... 21第二節、 研究設計...................................... 23第肆章 研究結果 ....................................... 26第一節、 分析方法...................................... 26第二節、 分析結果...................................... 31第伍章 結論與建議 ..................................... 39第一節、 結論.......................................... 39第二節、 研究限制與展望................................. 42一、研究限制 .......................................... 42二、分析方法的限制 ..................................... 43三、未來展望 .......................................... 43第陸章 參考書目 ....................................... 46中文部分：............................................. 46英文部分：............................................. 47 | zh_TW |
| dc.language.iso | en_US | - |
| dc.source.uri (資料來源) | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0097254001 | en_US |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | 生育步調 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | 生育數量 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | 時期生育率 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | 年輪生育率 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | 參數式模型 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | 人口轉換 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | tempo effects | en_US |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | quantum effects | en_US |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | period fertility | en_US |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | cohort fertility | en_US |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | parametric mode | en_US |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | demographic translation | en_US |
| dc.title (題名) | 二十世紀的臺灣生育率變遷─時期與年輪生育率之關係 | zh_TW |
| dc.title (題名) | Period and Cohort Fertility Transition in Taiwan, 1905-2008 | en_US |
| dc.type (資料類型) | thesis | en |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | 中文部分： | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | 內政部。2008。《人口政策白皮書》。 | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | 內政部。2008。《人口政策資料彙集》。 | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | 內政部。歷年。《臺閩地區人口統計》。 | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | 主計處。歷年。《人力資源調查─婦女婚育與就業婦帶調查》。 | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | 主計處。歷年。〈歷次普查概述〉。 | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | 李美玲。1990。《生育步調與生育轉型：台灣地區總生育率之分析》。台中：東海大學社會學研究所博士論文。 | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | 范子華。1992。《人口統計：人口統計理論與實務》。台北：宏星。 | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | 程超澤。1995。《社會人口學》。台北：五南。 | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | 陳肇男、孫得雄、李棟明。2003。《臺灣的人口奇蹟─家庭計劃政策成功探源》。台北：聯經。 | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | 陳正祥、孫得雄、蔡曉畊。1997。《臺灣的人口》。台北：南天。 | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | 黃意萍、余清祥。2002。「臺灣地區生育率推估方法的研究」，〈人口學刊〉，25:145-171。 | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | 楊靜利、陳寬政。2004。「臺灣教育擴張與婚姻變遷」台灣人口學會 2004 年年會暨人口、家庭與國民健康政策回顧與展望研討會論文。台北：台灣人口學會。 | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | 劉一龍、王德睦。2004。「臺灣地區總生育率的分析」台灣人口學會 2004 年年會暨人口、家庭與國民健康政策回顧與展望研討會論文。台北：台灣人口學會。 | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | 鄭保志、林世昌。2009。「女性年輪別未完成生育曲線之推估：美國與臺灣資料的應用」台灣人口學會2009年年會暨人口與永續發展─人口變遷與人口趨勢發展研討會論文。台北：臺灣人口學會 | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | 駱明慶。2007。「臺灣總生育率下降的表現與實際」，〈研究台灣〉，3:38-59。 | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | 英文部分： | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | Bongaarts, John. 2008. "What Can Fertility Indicators Tell Us About Pronatalist Policy Options?" Vienna Yearbook of Population Research 2008(39-55). | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | Bongaarts, John. 2008. "What Can Fertility Indicators Tell Us About Pronatalist Policy Options?" Vienna Yearbook of Population Research 2008(39-55). | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | Bongaarts, John and Griffith Feeney. 1998. "On the Quantum and Tempo of Fertility." Population and Development Review 24(2):271-291. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | —. 2006. "The Quantum and Tempo of Life-Cycle Events." Vienna Yearbook of Population Research 2006:115-151. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | Caselli, G., J. Vallin, et al. 2006. "Cohort Analysis of Fertility."Pp.131-148 in Demography: analysis and synthesis, Elsevier. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | —. 2006. "The Hypothetical Cohort as a Tool for Demographic Analysis."Pp.163-195 in Demography: analysis and synthesis, Elsevier. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | —. 2006. "Demographic Translation: From Period to Cohort Perspective and Back."Pp.215-225 in Demography: analysis and synthesis, Elsevier. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | Chandola, T., D. Coleman, et al. 1999. "Recent European fertility patterns: fitting curves to`distorted`distributions." Population Studies 53(3): 317-329. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | —. 2000. "A reply to J. Antonio Ortega Osona and HP. Kohler." Population Studies 54(3): 351-351. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | —. 2002. "Distinctive features of age-specific fertility profiles in the English-speaking world: Common patterns in Australia, Canada, New Zealand and the United States, 1970-98." Population Studies: 181-200. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | Foster, A. 1990. "Cohort analysis and demographic translation: A comparative study of recent trends in age specific fertility rates from Europe and North America." Population Studies 44(2): 287-315. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | Hoem, J., D. Madsen, et al. 1981. "Experiments in modelling recent Danish fertility curves." Demography 18(2): 231-244. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | Kohler, H. and J. Ortega. 2000. "A Comment on" Recent European Fertility Patterns: Fitting Curves to`Distorted`Distribution" by T. Chandola, DA Coleman and RW Hiorns." Population Studies 54(3): 347-349. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | —. 2002. "Tempo-adjusted period parity progression measures, fertility postponement and completed cohort fertility." Demographic Research 6(6): 91-144. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | Kostaki, A. 2008. "Modeling fertility in modern populations." Demographic Research, Volume 16(6): 141-194. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | Ní Bhrolcháin, Máire. 1992. "Period Paramount? A Critique of the Cohort Approach to Fertility." Population and Development Review 18(4):599-629. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | Ní Bhrolcháin, Máire. 2001. "Demographic Measurement: General Issues and Measures of Fertility." Pp. 3435-3442 in International Encyclopedia of the Social & Behavioral Sciences, edited by N. J. Smelser and P. B. Baltes. New York: Elsevier. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | Rallu, Jean-Louis and Laurent Toulemon. 1994. "Period Fertility Measures: The Construction of Different Indices and Their Application to France, 1946-1989." Population: An English Selection 6:59-93. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | Rodriguez, G. 2006. "Demographic translation and tempo effects: An accelerated failure time perspective." How Long Do We Live?: 69-92. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | Ryder, N. 1964. "The process of demographic translation." Demography: 74-82. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | Schoen, Robert. 2006. Dynamic Population Models. Dordrecht, The Netherlands: Springer. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | Shkolnikov, V., E. Andreev, et al. 2007. "The concentration of reproduction in cohorts of women in Europe and the United States." Population and Development Review 33(1): 67-100. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | Thornton, A., H. Lin, et al. 1994. "The Fertility Transition in Taiwan."Pp.264-304 in Social change and the family in Taiwan, University of Chicago Press. | zh_TW |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | Tung, A. and W. Yang. 2005. "‘Iron Rice Bowl’ Job Security and Pro-Family Policy: A Case Study of Taiwan." Lowest Low Fertility and its Responses: French Experience and East-Asian Realities, Taipei. | zh_TW |
