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題名 美元本位制下福利與貨幣政策分析
Welfare and Monetary Policy under a Dollar Standard
作者 賴建男
貢獻者 黃俞寧
賴建男
關鍵詞 美元本位制
動態隨機一般均衡
貨幣政策
Monetary Policy
DSGE
Dollar Standard
日期 2009
上傳時間 11-Oct-2011 17:02:41 (UTC+8)
摘要 美元在世界上具有獨特的地位,大部份在國際上貿易的商品都以美元做為訂價,Devereux, Shi and Xu (2007)依此情況而把美元稱為國際上的參考貨幣(reference currency)。本文即以美元為參考貨幣的情況,建立一兩國動態隨機一般均衡(Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium)模型來探討在世界經濟體系中,有參考貨幣時,貨幣衝擊對兩國經濟體系的影響,以及當面對外在環境衝擊時,兩國政府應該如何選擇適當的貨幣政策。結果發現,擁有參考貨幣的國家發生貨幣衝擊時,對兩國的產出都有正面的影響,然而非參考貨幣國家發生貨幣衝擊時,反而有以鄰為壑(beggar-thy-neighbor)的效果。而在面臨外在環境衝擊時,選擇穩定通貨膨脹的利率法則對兩國而言都會帶來較好的福利效果。
The U.S. dollars in the world possess a unique position; the majority of the international tradable goods are priced in the U.S. dollars. This paper sets up a two-country DSGE model where the U.S. dollar serves as the reference currency to quantitatively examine the impacts caused by the monetary shocks, as well as how both governments should adopt their monetary policies when facing external shocks. The results show that there are positive impacts on both countries` outputs when a monetary shock occurs in the reference-currency-holding country; Conversely, there is a beggar-thy-neighbor effect when the shock takes place in the other country. In general, the inflation-targeting interest rate rule leads to greater welfare in both countries.
參考文獻 Bergin, P. R., Shin, H. C. and Tchakarov, I. (2007), “Does Exchange Rate Variability Matter for Welfare? A Quantitative Investigation of Stabilization Policies,” European Economic Review, v.51, 1041-58.
Betts, C. and Devereux, M. B. (2001), “The International Effects of Monetary and Fiscal Policy in a Two-Country Model,” Money, Capital Mobility, and Trade: Essays in honor of Robert A. Mundell, 9-52.
Corsetti, G.. and Pesenti, P. (2001), “Welfare and Macroeconomic Interdependence,” Quarterly Journal of Economics, v.116, 421-445.
Devereux, M. B. and Engel, C. (2003), “Monetary Policy in the Open Economy Revisited: Price Setting and Exchange Rate Flexibility,” Review of Economic Studies, v.70, 765-783.
Devereux, M. B., Shi, K. and Xu, J. (2007), “Global Monetary Policy under a Dollar Standard,” Journal of International Economics, v.71, iss.1, 113-132.
Goldberg, L. S. and Tille, C. (2005), “Vehicle Currency Use in International Trade,” FRB of New York Staff Report, no.200.
Juillard, M. (1996), “DYNARE: A Program for the Resolution and Simulation of Dynamic Models with Forward Variables Through the Use of a Relaxation Algorithm,” CEPREMAP.
Krugman, P. (1984), “The International Role of the Dollar: Theory and Prospect,” in J. Bilson and R. Marston, eds., Exchange rate theory and practice, Chicago, University of Chicago Press.
Lane, P. R., (2001), “The New Open Economy Macroeconomics: A Survey,” Journal of International Economics, v.54, 235-266.
Lucas, R. E. (1987), “Models of Business Cycles.” Basil Blackwell, New York.
Mckinnon, R. (2001), “The International Dollar Standard and the Sustainability of US Current Account Deficits,” mimeo, Stanford University.
Mundell, R. A. (1968), “International economics,” Macmillan, New York.
Obstfeld, M. and Rogoff, K. (1995), “Exchange Rate Dynamics Redux,” Journal of Political Economy, v.103, no.3, 624-660.
Obstfeld, M. and Rogoff, K. (1996), “Foundations of International Macroeconomics,” MIT Press, Cambridge, MA.
Obstfeld, M. and Rogoff, K. (2000), “New Direction for Stochastic Open Economy Models,” Journal of International Economics, v.50, 117-153.
Schmitt-Grohe, S. and Uribe, M., (2004a), “Solving Dynamic General Equilibrium Models Using a Second-Order Approximation of the Policy Function,” Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, v.28, 755-775.
Tavlas, G. S. (1997), “The International Use of the US dollar: An Optimum Currency Area Perspective,” The World Economy, v.20, 709-747.
Teo, W. L. (2009), “Can exchange rate rules be better than interest rate rules?” Japan and the World Economy, v.21, iss.3, 301-311.
描述 碩士
國立政治大學
經濟學系
96258014
98
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0096258014
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 黃俞寧zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) 賴建男zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) 賴建男zh_TW
dc.date (日期) 2009en_US
dc.date.accessioned 11-Oct-2011 17:02:41 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 11-Oct-2011 17:02:41 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 11-Oct-2011 17:02:41 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0096258014en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/51621-
dc.description (描述) 碩士zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 經濟學系zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 96258014zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 98zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) 美元在世界上具有獨特的地位,大部份在國際上貿易的商品都以美元做為訂價,Devereux, Shi and Xu (2007)依此情況而把美元稱為國際上的參考貨幣(reference currency)。本文即以美元為參考貨幣的情況,建立一兩國動態隨機一般均衡(Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium)模型來探討在世界經濟體系中,有參考貨幣時,貨幣衝擊對兩國經濟體系的影響,以及當面對外在環境衝擊時,兩國政府應該如何選擇適當的貨幣政策。結果發現,擁有參考貨幣的國家發生貨幣衝擊時,對兩國的產出都有正面的影響,然而非參考貨幣國家發生貨幣衝擊時,反而有以鄰為壑(beggar-thy-neighbor)的效果。而在面臨外在環境衝擊時,選擇穩定通貨膨脹的利率法則對兩國而言都會帶來較好的福利效果。zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) The U.S. dollars in the world possess a unique position; the majority of the international tradable goods are priced in the U.S. dollars. This paper sets up a two-country DSGE model where the U.S. dollar serves as the reference currency to quantitatively examine the impacts caused by the monetary shocks, as well as how both governments should adopt their monetary policies when facing external shocks. The results show that there are positive impacts on both countries` outputs when a monetary shock occurs in the reference-currency-holding country; Conversely, there is a beggar-thy-neighbor effect when the shock takes place in the other country. In general, the inflation-targeting interest rate rule leads to greater welfare in both countries.en_US
dc.description.tableofcontents 第1章 緒論 1
第1節 研究動機與目的 1
第2節 研究架構 3
第2章 文獻回顧 4
第3章 模型設定 9
第1節 本國最終財市場 9
第2節 代表性家計部門 12
第3節 中間財市場 15
3.3.1本國中間財廠商 16
3.3.2外國中間財廠商 18
第4節 貨幣政策 20
第5節 市場結清條件 21
第6節 模型均衡解 22
第7節 外生衝擊變數 23
第4章 模擬方法及參數設定 24
第5章 模擬結果 25
第1節 政府的貨幣政策選擇 25
第2節 貨幣衝擊 26
5.2.1 本國貨幣衝擊 26
5.2.2 外國貨幣衝擊 27
第3節 本國生產力衝擊 29
5.3.1 兩國固定貨幣供給 29
5.3.2 兩國利率法則 30
5.3.3 本國利率法則外國固定匯率 30
第4節 外國生產力衝擊 32
5.4.1 兩國固定貨幣供給 32
5.4.2 兩國利率法則 32
5.4.3 本國利率法則外國固定匯率 33
第6章 兩國政策對福利的影響 35
第1節 福利衡量方式 35
第2節 兩國政策對福利的影響 36
第7章 結論與建議 38
參考文獻 39
附錄 41

圖表目錄

圖1 未預期到的本國貨幣衝擊對總體經濟變數的衝擊反應(PCP-LCP) 41
圖2 未預期到的外國貨幣衝擊對總體經濟變數的衝擊反應(PCP-LCP) 42
圖3 未預期到的本國貨幣衝擊對總體經濟變數的衝擊反應(PCP-PCP) 43
圖4 未預期到的本國貨幣衝擊對總體經濟變數的衝擊反應(LCP-LCP) 44
圖5 本國生產力衝擊對總體經濟變數的衝擊反應(固定貨幣供給) 45
圖6 本國生產力衝擊對總體經濟變數的衝擊反應(利率法則) 46
圖7 本國生產力衝擊對總體經濟變數的衝擊反應(固定匯率) 47
圖8 外國生產力衝擊對總體經濟變數的衝擊反應(固定貨幣供給) 48
圖9 外國生產力衝擊對總體經濟變數的衝擊反應(利率法則) 49
圖10 外國生產力衝擊對總體經濟變數的衝擊反應(固定匯率) 50
表 1 參數設定值 51
表 2 PCP-LCP下本國標準差及福利 52
表 3 PCP-LCP下外國標準差及福利 52
表 4 PCP-LCP下政策搭配福利表 52
表 5 PCP-PCP下本國標準差及福利 53
表 6 PCP-PCP下外國標準差及福利 53
表 7 PCP-PCP下政策搭配福利表 53
表 8 LCP-LCP下本國標準差及福利 54
表 9 LCP-LCP下外國標準差及福利 54
表 10 LCP-LCP下政策搭配福利表 54
zh_TW
dc.language.iso en_US-
dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0096258014en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 美元本位制zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 動態隨機一般均衡zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 貨幣政策zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Monetary Policyen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) DSGEen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Dollar Standarden_US
dc.title (題名) 美元本位制下福利與貨幣政策分析zh_TW
dc.title (題名) Welfare and Monetary Policy under a Dollar Standarden_US
dc.type (資料類型) thesisen
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Bergin, P. R., Shin, H. C. and Tchakarov, I. (2007), “Does Exchange Rate Variability Matter for Welfare? A Quantitative Investigation of Stabilization Policies,” European Economic Review, v.51, 1041-58.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Betts, C. and Devereux, M. B. (2001), “The International Effects of Monetary and Fiscal Policy in a Two-Country Model,” Money, Capital Mobility, and Trade: Essays in honor of Robert A. Mundell, 9-52.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Corsetti, G.. and Pesenti, P. (2001), “Welfare and Macroeconomic Interdependence,” Quarterly Journal of Economics, v.116, 421-445.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Devereux, M. B. and Engel, C. (2003), “Monetary Policy in the Open Economy Revisited: Price Setting and Exchange Rate Flexibility,” Review of Economic Studies, v.70, 765-783.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Devereux, M. B., Shi, K. and Xu, J. (2007), “Global Monetary Policy under a Dollar Standard,” Journal of International Economics, v.71, iss.1, 113-132.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Goldberg, L. S. and Tille, C. (2005), “Vehicle Currency Use in International Trade,” FRB of New York Staff Report, no.200.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Juillard, M. (1996), “DYNARE: A Program for the Resolution and Simulation of Dynamic Models with Forward Variables Through the Use of a Relaxation Algorithm,” CEPREMAP.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Krugman, P. (1984), “The International Role of the Dollar: Theory and Prospect,” in J. Bilson and R. Marston, eds., Exchange rate theory and practice, Chicago, University of Chicago Press.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Lane, P. R., (2001), “The New Open Economy Macroeconomics: A Survey,” Journal of International Economics, v.54, 235-266.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Lucas, R. E. (1987), “Models of Business Cycles.” Basil Blackwell, New York.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Mckinnon, R. (2001), “The International Dollar Standard and the Sustainability of US Current Account Deficits,” mimeo, Stanford University.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Mundell, R. A. (1968), “International economics,” Macmillan, New York.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Obstfeld, M. and Rogoff, K. (1995), “Exchange Rate Dynamics Redux,” Journal of Political Economy, v.103, no.3, 624-660.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Obstfeld, M. and Rogoff, K. (1996), “Foundations of International Macroeconomics,” MIT Press, Cambridge, MA.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Obstfeld, M. and Rogoff, K. (2000), “New Direction for Stochastic Open Economy Models,” Journal of International Economics, v.50, 117-153.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Schmitt-Grohe, S. and Uribe, M., (2004a), “Solving Dynamic General Equilibrium Models Using a Second-Order Approximation of the Policy Function,” Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, v.28, 755-775.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Tavlas, G. S. (1997), “The International Use of the US dollar: An Optimum Currency Area Perspective,” The World Economy, v.20, 709-747.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Teo, W. L. (2009), “Can exchange rate rules be better than interest rate rules?” Japan and the World Economy, v.21, iss.3, 301-311.zh_TW