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題名 亞洲國家金融海嘯前後股票債券報酬率動態相關性分析-應用AG-DCC GARCH模型
Asymmetric dynamic conditional correlation of Asia stock and bond returns
作者 彭筠珈
Peng, Yun Chia
貢獻者 林修葳
彭筠珈
Peng, Yun Chia
關鍵詞 不對稱動態相關係數模型
flight-to-quality
MSCI指數
J.P. Morgan債券指數
金融海嘯
日期 2011
上傳時間 12-Apr-2012 13:55:31 (UTC+8)
摘要 本文主要針對金融海嘯前後,亞洲國家資本市場報酬動態相關性的變化進行研究,過去對國際資本市場變化研究,著重於股票市場的關係且多假設相關係數為固定。
     本研究應用Cappiello, Engle and Sheppard(2006)提出的AG-DCC GARCH模型(Asymmetric Generalized Dynamic Conditional Correlation GARCH),探討亞洲國家股票與債券市場的動態相關性變化。除了股票市場間報酬相關性的變化之外,同時考量危機發生時可能有flight-to-quality效果,而將台灣、韓國日本之債券市場進行研究,並將資本市場面對正面與負面衝擊時,所可能產生之不同反應納入評估,並採用國際投資者常作為投資參考的MSCI指數與J.P.Morgan指數作為研究資料來源。
     研究發現台灣、中國、韓國及日本的股票指數與台灣、韓國及日本的債券市場的相關係數會隨時間變動而變動,並進一步藉由AG-DCC GARCH發現各指數在金融海嘯前後的相關係數趨勢且市場間在金融海嘯後動態相關性有顯著的差異。
     投資者進行國際投資組合配置或者投資標的選擇,應考量市場間的動態相關性改變所帶來的影響,並配合本身風險傾向找出最適當的避險方式,避免因忽略市場訊息可能產生的投資風險。對政府而言,制訂政策同時尚需考量國際資本移動產生的衝擊,以及其對政策實際執行的效果影響,進而制訂有效的政策。
參考文獻 1. 王冠閔,黃柏農(2004),台灣股﹑匯市與美國股市關聯性探討,臺灣經濟預測與政策,34,31-72
2. 方文碩,王冠閔,董澍琦(2006),亞洲金融危機期間股票市場的蔓延效果,管理評論,25(2),61-82
3. 王冠閔,吳書慧(2006),台灣股、匯市與美國股市傳導機制之實證分析,運籌研究集刊,10,1-15
4. 王冠閔(2007),不對稱訊息下台灣股、匯市與美國股市蔓延效果之預測檢定,人文暨社會科學期刊,3(1),69-80
5. 王怡文,李世昌,李彥賢(2006),日經225股價指數與指數期貨報酬率之動態關係—DCC-GARCH模型分析,元培學報,13,21-34
6. 吳吉林、原鵬飛(2009),信息、政策衝擊和中國股票、债券及外匯市場一體化—基於AG-DCC GARCH模型的金融市市場動態相關性分析,南方經濟,11
7. 李欣儒(2008),以ADCC模型探討衝擊事件對亞洲主要股市間動態相關的影響,台北大學統計所
8. 陳美菊,金融海嘯前後新興亞洲國家資本移動分析,經濟研究,11,321-348
9. 張蕾(2007),金融資產動態相關性方法及應用研究,廈門大學
10. 周雨田,楊士漢(2009),台灣股市與美國那斯達克的動態相關性分析,交通大學企業管理碩士學程
11. 張維敉(2002),金融危機與風險外溢─DCC模型之應用,國立中央大學財務金融研究所
12. 陳盈之(2002),市場訊息變動對外匯波動之不對稱影響與其反轉特性:選擇權市場的證據,國立政治大學財務管理研究所
13. 黎明淵,林修葳,郭憲章,楊聲勇(2003),美、日股市巨幅波動下的股市連動效果-美國、日本與亞洲四小龍股市實證結果,證券市場發展季刊,4,117-144
14. Hyde, Stuart, Don Bredin, and Nghia Nguyen. (2007). “Correlation Dynamics between Asia-Pacific, EU and US Stock Returns.” In Asia-Pacific Financial Market: Integration, Innovation and Challenges, International Finance Review, vol. 8:39–61.
15. Yasushi Hamao, Ronald W. Masulis and Victor Ng. (1990). Correlations in Price Changes and Volatility across International Stock Markets, The Review of Financial Studies, 3(2), 281-307
16. Thomas C. Chiang, Bang Nam Jeon and Huimin Li. (2007). Dynamic correlation analysis of financial contagion: Evidence from Asian markets. Journal of International Money and Finance, pp. 1206–1228
17. Yang, J., Zhou, Y., & Leung, W. K. (2010). Asymmetric correlation and volatility dynamics among stock, bond, and securitized real estate markets. Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, forthcoming.
18. Samitas, A., Kenourgios, D., Paltalidis, N. (2007). Financial crises and stock market dependence. Working paper, EFMA Annual Meeting.
19. Kearney, C., Poti, V. (2006). Correlation dynamics in European equity markets. Research in International Business and Finance 20(3), 305–321.
20. Robert F. Engle (1982). “Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of U.K. Inflation,” Econometrica, 50, 987–1008.
21. Engle, R. F., and K. Kroner (1995). “Multivariate Simultaneous Generalized ARCH,” Econometric Theory, 11, 122–150.
22. Robert F. Engle (2002). “Dynamic Conditional Correlation: A Simple Class of Multivariate GARCH Models,” Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 20, 339–350.
23. Cappiello, L., Engle, R., Sheppard, K. (2006). Asymmetric dynamics in the correlations of global equity and bond returns. Journal of Financial Econometrics 4 (4), 537–572.
24. Bollerslev, T. (1986). Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity. Journal of Econometrics 31, 307–328.
25. R. Engle, V. Ng. (1993). Measuring and testing the impact of news on volatility, Journal of Finance 48 1749–1778.
26. Christos S. Savva(2008). International stock markets interactions and conditional correlations, Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions & Money 19 645–661
27. Brain H. Boyer, Tomomi Kumagai, and Kathy Yuan.(2006). How Do Crises Spread?, Journal of Finance, 957-1003
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38. Yasushi Hamao, Ronald W. Masulis, Victor Ng. (1990). Correlations in Price Changes and Volatility across International Stock Markets Review of Finance Study, 1157-1189
39. Dimitris Kenourgios, Aristeidis Samitas, Nikos Paltalidis. (2010). Financial crises and stock market contagion in a multivariate time-varying asymmetric framework, Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 21(1), 92-106
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描述 碩士
國立政治大學
國際經營與貿易研究所
97351009
100
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0973510091
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 林修葳zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) 彭筠珈zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) Peng, Yun Chiaen_US
dc.creator (作者) 彭筠珈zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) Peng, Yun Chiaen_US
dc.date (日期) 2011en_US
dc.date.accessioned 12-Apr-2012 13:55:31 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 12-Apr-2012 13:55:31 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 12-Apr-2012 13:55:31 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0973510091en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/52522-
dc.description (描述) 碩士zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國際經營與貿易研究所zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 97351009zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 100zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) 本文主要針對金融海嘯前後,亞洲國家資本市場報酬動態相關性的變化進行研究,過去對國際資本市場變化研究,著重於股票市場的關係且多假設相關係數為固定。
     本研究應用Cappiello, Engle and Sheppard(2006)提出的AG-DCC GARCH模型(Asymmetric Generalized Dynamic Conditional Correlation GARCH),探討亞洲國家股票與債券市場的動態相關性變化。除了股票市場間報酬相關性的變化之外,同時考量危機發生時可能有flight-to-quality效果,而將台灣、韓國日本之債券市場進行研究,並將資本市場面對正面與負面衝擊時,所可能產生之不同反應納入評估,並採用國際投資者常作為投資參考的MSCI指數與J.P.Morgan指數作為研究資料來源。
     研究發現台灣、中國、韓國及日本的股票指數與台灣、韓國及日本的債券市場的相關係數會隨時間變動而變動,並進一步藉由AG-DCC GARCH發現各指數在金融海嘯前後的相關係數趨勢且市場間在金融海嘯後動態相關性有顯著的差異。
     投資者進行國際投資組合配置或者投資標的選擇,應考量市場間的動態相關性改變所帶來的影響,並配合本身風險傾向找出最適當的避險方式,避免因忽略市場訊息可能產生的投資風險。對政府而言,制訂政策同時尚需考量國際資本移動產生的衝擊,以及其對政策實際執行的效果影響,進而制訂有效的政策。
zh_TW
dc.description.tableofcontents 第一章 緒論 5
     第一節 研究動機 5
     第二節 研究目的 6
     第三節 研究架構 7
     第二章 文獻回顧 8
     第一節 動態條件相關係數之模型發展 8
     第二節 動態條件相關係數模型之相關應用 10
     第三章 研究方法 13
     第一節 單根檢定 13
     第二節 模型選擇原則 15
     第三節 波動度模型 15
     第四節 動態條件相關係數模型 17
     第四章 實證分析 21
     第一節 資料來源及處理 22
     第二節 資料初步分析 23
     第三節 動態條件相關模型建立 32
     第五章 結論與建議 45
     
     圖目錄
     圖1-1 研究架構 3
     圖4-1 台灣、中國、韓國與日本股票指數趨勢 30
     圖4-2 台灣、中國、韓國與日本報酬率趨勢圖 31
     圖4-3 台灣、韓國與日本債券指數及報酬率趨勢圖 32
     圖4-4 NIC-台灣、韓國與日本股票指數 36
     圖4-5 NIC-台灣與日本債券指數 36
     圖4-6 台灣股市與中國、韓國、日本股市動態相關係數圖 40
     圖4-7 中國股市與台灣、韓國、日本股市動態相關係數圖 41
     圖4-8 韓國股市與台灣、中國、日本股市動態相關係數圖 41
     圖4-9 日本股市與台灣、韓國、中國股市動態相關係數圖 42
     圖4-10 台灣股票與台灣、韓國、日本債券動態相關係數圖 43
     圖4-11 中國股票與台灣、韓國、日本債券動態相關係數圖 43
     圖4-12 韓國股票與台灣、韓國、日本債券動態相關係數圖 44
     圖4-13 日本股票與台灣、韓國、日本債券動態相關係數圖 45
      
     表目錄
     
     表4-1 股票市場報酬率基本統計量: 台灣、韓國、中國及日本 27
     表4-2 債券市場報酬率基本統計量:台灣、韓國及日本 28
     表4-3 分析期間非條件相關係數(2006/1/4~2011/8/31) 29
     表4-4 非條件相關係數-金融海嘯前(2006/1/4~2008/8/29) 29
     表4-5 非條件相關係數-金融海嘯後(2009/9/1~2010/8/31) 29
     表4-6 各指數報酬率之ADF單根檢定結果 33
     表4-7 ARCH效果檢定結果 34
     表4-8 單變量GARCH模型 35
     表4-9 各指數報酬率之符號偏誤檢定結果 35
     表4-10 固定相關係數檢定結果 37
     表4-11 股票指數間報酬動態條件相關係數基本統計量 38
     表4-12 股票與債券指數間動態條件相關係數基本統計量 38
     表4-13 金融海嘯後動態相關係數Mann-Whitney U檢定結果-股票 39
     表4-14 金融海嘯前後動態相關係數Mann-Whitney U檢定結果-股票vs.債券 39
zh_TW
dc.language.iso en_US-
dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0973510091en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 不對稱動態相關係數模型zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) flight-to-qualityzh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) MSCI指數zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) J.P. Morgan債券指數zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 金融海嘯zh_TW
dc.title (題名) 亞洲國家金融海嘯前後股票債券報酬率動態相關性分析-應用AG-DCC GARCH模型zh_TW
dc.title (題名) Asymmetric dynamic conditional correlation of Asia stock and bond returnsen_US
dc.type (資料類型) thesisen
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 1. 王冠閔,黃柏農(2004),台灣股﹑匯市與美國股市關聯性探討,臺灣經濟預測與政策,34,31-72zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 2. 方文碩,王冠閔,董澍琦(2006),亞洲金融危機期間股票市場的蔓延效果,管理評論,25(2),61-82zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 3. 王冠閔,吳書慧(2006),台灣股、匯市與美國股市傳導機制之實證分析,運籌研究集刊,10,1-15zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 4. 王冠閔(2007),不對稱訊息下台灣股、匯市與美國股市蔓延效果之預測檢定,人文暨社會科學期刊,3(1),69-80zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 5. 王怡文,李世昌,李彥賢(2006),日經225股價指數與指數期貨報酬率之動態關係—DCC-GARCH模型分析,元培學報,13,21-34zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 6. 吳吉林、原鵬飛(2009),信息、政策衝擊和中國股票、债券及外匯市場一體化—基於AG-DCC GARCH模型的金融市市場動態相關性分析,南方經濟,11zh_TW
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dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 9. 張蕾(2007),金融資產動態相關性方法及應用研究,廈門大學zh_TW
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dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 12. 陳盈之(2002),市場訊息變動對外匯波動之不對稱影響與其反轉特性:選擇權市場的證據,國立政治大學財務管理研究所zh_TW
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dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 17. Yang, J., Zhou, Y., & Leung, W. K. (2010). Asymmetric correlation and volatility dynamics among stock, bond, and securitized real estate markets. Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, forthcoming.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 18. Samitas, A., Kenourgios, D., Paltalidis, N. (2007). Financial crises and stock market dependence. Working paper, EFMA Annual Meeting.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 19. Kearney, C., Poti, V. (2006). Correlation dynamics in European equity markets. Research in International Business and Finance 20(3), 305–321.zh_TW
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