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題名 以使用者與參與者的角度分析「傳染病預測市場」之可行性
The analysis of feasibility of epidemic prediction markets : from user and participant perspectives作者 李建霆 貢獻者 童振源
李建霆關鍵詞 傳染病預測
預測市場
傳染病預測市場
集體智慧
可行性
nfectious disease Prediction
Prediction Markets
Collective Wisdom
Feasibility
Epidemic Prediction Markets日期 2011 上傳時間 30-Oct-2012 10:23:00 (UTC+8) 摘要 千年以來，人類不斷遭遇各種疫病的侵襲，流行速度更勝戰火蔓延，影響整體人類重大，然而隨著醫學知識的進步與衛生環境的改善，許多傳染病已經受到控制乃至根絕，但是生活周遭仍然面臨諸多威脅生命健康的潛藏危機，如果稍有疏失或不慎，傳染病不僅對於人體造成傷害，甚至恐將危害社會、經濟和政治層面，而近年的SARS、H1N1等流行病毒皆造成全球恐慌。防疫工作重點在於及早掌握疫情趨勢以利制定相關因應政策，目前各國對於傳染病的掌握主要透過層層監測系統與歷史平均，藉以判斷該年特定傳染病流行與散佈程度。這些方法受到各種人為與環境因素影響，導致推估疫情成效有限之外，同時所得資料無法直接反應未來疫情，因此導致各國相關單位逐漸嘗試其他預測方法。近年應用預測市場機制預測疫情模式引起公衛領域的重視，相關學術期刊與著名雜誌相繼介紹此一新興模式，同時肯定其在預測傳染病方面的成效與貢獻，而美國和台灣政府部門先後透過此項機制改善現有防疫體系的不足。那麼，預測市場用以預測疫情的成效是否確實如同其在眾多領域取得的成效一樣出眾？鑑於前述問題，本研究分別透過質化與量化的方式發掘公衛、醫學或流病學等其他領域對於「傳染病預測市場」是否能夠成為有效的預測機制或是成為常規的參考方法，結果證實使用的疾管局人員與參與的專業醫事人員認為「傳染病預測市場」確實可以應用於我國疫情預測的層面，但是兩者意見具有程度的差異。
For centuries, the spread of various diseases damage countless human beings, which surpass wars in the world. Those diseases not only endanger people’s life, but also invade the other dimensions, including society, economic and politics. With the advancement of medical knowledge and the improvement of public health, many infectious diseases have been brought under control and even eradicated. But humans still face and experience threats from pandemic viruses such as SARS and H1N1 constantly. Epidemic prevention work focuses on understanding the variation of situation as soon as possible. Then governments can set up suitable decisions and policies based on epidemic situation. Though the monitoring system and the historical average are the mainstream to control the trends of infections for related departments, scientists believe that the two methods are subject to humans and environmental factors. In other words, it is difficult to draw effective information and direct response of the future trends from present methods. And it leads to national units gradually try other epidemic forecasting methods. In recent years, using prediction markets to predict flu causes the attention of public health. Thus academic journals and well-known magazines not only introduce this application but approve its effectiveness and contribution in predicting infectious diseases. The departments of US and Taiwan have tried to improve the deficiencies of the existing prevention system through prediction markets. Is this application really as successful as PM in many issues and fields? To response the question, this research intends to through qualitative and quantitative ways respectively to explore the evaluations on Epidemic Prediction Markets behind public health, medical, epidemiology, etc. The result confirms that CDC staff and health workers identify the feasibility of Epidemic Prediction Markets, but with the degree of variation.參考文獻 Boschert, S. (2005), “Market Concepts to Predict Influenza Activity,” Internal Medicine News, http://www.internalmedicinenews.com/index.php?id=495&cHash=071010&tx_ttnews[tt_news]=7900CDC, (2009), “See Coordinators Colleagues Letter,” http://www.cdc.gov/stopsyphilis/dear-coord/SEECoordinators-June-2009.pdfCNN, (2003), “Amid furor, Pentagon kills terrorism futures market,” http://edition.cnn.com/2003/ALLPOLITICS/07/29/terror.market/index.htmlCowen, T. (2005), “Avian Flu: What Should Be Done,” Working Paper Series, Mercatus Center, George Mason University. Fama, E. (1991), “Efficient Capital Markets: II,” Journal of Finance 46(5), 1575–1617.Fox News, (2003), “Terrorism Futures Market Plan Canceled,” http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,93190,00.htmlGrossman, S. (1976), “On the Efficiency of Competitive Stock Markets Where Traders Have Diverse Information,” The Journal of Finance, 31(2), 573-85.Hayek, F. (1945), “The Use of Knowledge in Society,” American Economic Review, 35, 519-30.IEHM, (2011), “Predicting a Pandemic,” http://iehm.uiowa.edu/iehm/imgs/Predicting_Pandemic_Brief_final.pdfManski, C. (2006), “Interpreting the Predictions of Prediction Markets,” Economic Letters, 91(3), 425‐29.Masum, H., J. Ranck, and P. Singer (2010), “Five Promising Methods for Health Foresight,” Foresight, 12, 54-66.Moyer, M. (2007), “How to Predict the Future,” Popular Science, 271(1), 69-71.Murray, S. (2003), “Pentagon Retreats From Terror Futures In Face of Criticism,” Wall Street Journal, July 30, P. C1.Pennok, D., S. Lawrence, C. Giles, and F. Nielsen (2001), “The Real Power of Artificial Markets,” Science, 291, 987-988.Polgreen, P., D. Diekema, L. Herwaldt, F. Nelson, and G. Neumann (2007), “A Proposal for the Use of Prediction Markets to Forecast Influenza Activity,” Oxford Journal, 44, 272-279.Polgreen, P., F. Nelson and G. Neumann (2006), “Using Prediction Markets to Forecast Trends in Infectious Disease,” Features, 1, 459-65.Polgreen, P., F. Nelson, and G. Neumann (2007), “Use Prediction Markets to Forecast Infectious Disease Activity,” Health Care Epidemiology, 1(1), 272-79.Squer, S. (2008), “The Sky Is Falling: Risk, Safety, and the Avian Flu,” South Atlantic Quarterly, 107(2), 387-409.Stix, G. (2008), “Super Tuesday: Markets Predict Outcome Better Than Polls,” Scientific American Magazine, February 4.Sun-Chong Wang, Jie-Jun Tseng, Sai-Ping Li, and Shu-Heng Chen (2006), “Prediction Of Bird Flu A(H5N1) Outbreaks In Taiwan By Online Auction: Experimental Results,” New Mathematics and Natural Computation, 2(3), 271-279.Surowiecki, J. (2004), The Wisdom of Crowds: Why the Many Are Smarter Than the Few and How Collective Wisdom Shapes Business, Economies, Societies and Nations. New York: Anchor Books. pp.27-54.Wolfers, J. and E. Zitzewitz (2005), “Interpreting Prediction Market Prices as Probabilities,” NBER Working Paper, No. 10359.中廣新聞網，2011，〈海地30多萬人染霍亂5千多人死亡〉，http://www.bcc.com.tw/news/newsHistoryview.asp?cde=586831，查閱時間：2011/11/19。行政院衛生署疾病管制局，2008，《法定傳染病監測工作指引》，台北：行政院衛生署疾病管制局，頁19-20。行政院衛生署疾病管制局，2011，《季節性流感防治工作指引》，台北：行政院衛生署疾病管制局，頁18-37。行政院衛生署疾病管制局，2011，《傳染病統計暨監視年報》，台北：行政院衛生署疾病管制局，頁40-80。肖水源、劉愛忠，2007，《瘟疫的故事》，台北：知青頻道。林欣靜，2010，〈「未來事件交易所」成交未來〉，《光華雜誌》，35(8)：46-56。金傳春、吳俊霖、陳培詩、宋鴻樟，2007，〈流行病學特徵評估氣候變遷在傳染病流行之重要高危險區、流行趨向及其策略規劃〉，環保署/國科會空污防制科研究合作計畫成果報告書，http://sta.epa.gov.tw/report/Files/NSC95-EPA-Z-002-004.pdf，查閱時間：2011/11/30。張子清，2011，〈西非爆發霍亂疫情 2500人死亡〉，中央廣播電台，http://www.vft.com.tw/RtiNewsWeb/index_newsContent.aspx?nid=322308，查閱時間：2011/11/19。張浚、趙少欽，2006，《人類與瘟疫的故事》。台北：新視野。張鴻仁， 2007，〈建構生物防護及SARS等新興傳染病防護網計畫執行成效分析與政策建議報告〉，行政院研究發展考核委員會九十六年委託研究計畫，http://www.rdec.gov.tw/public/PlanAttach/200806241718573308510.pdf，查閱時間：2011/12/01。陳建仁，1999，《流行病學：原理與方法》，台北：聯經。陳惠惠、施靜茹，2010，〈預測未來疫情 台灣也在嘗試〉，聯合報，4月23日。陳耀祖，2003，〈從全球化的觀點看非典傳染病〉，《亞洲研究》，48：27-54。曾玠郡、王孫崇、李世炳，2008，〈從選舉預測到經濟物理學實驗—談台灣政治期貨交易中心之演進〉，《物理雙月刊》，30（3）：265-266。童振源、林繼文、周子全，2010，〈以預測市場理論建構傳染病預測模式期末報告〉，行政院衛生署疾病管制局研究計畫。童振源、林繼文、周子全，2010，〈傳染病預測市場之建置與評估〉，行政院衛生署疾病管制局研究計畫書。童振源、林馨儀、林繼文、黃光雄、周子全、劉嘉凱、趙文志，2009，〈台灣選舉預測：預測市場的運用與實證分析〉，《選舉研究》，16（2）：131-166。楊伶，2009，〈世衛：全球甲流死亡人數超過7800人〉，http://big5.xinhuanet.com/gate/big5/news.xinhuanet.com/world/2009-11/28/content_12553779.ht，查閱時間：2011/11/19。 描述 碩士
國立政治大學
國家發展研究所
97261012
100資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0097261012 資料類型 thesis dc.contributor.advisor 童振源 zh_TW dc.contributor.author (Authors) 李建霆 zh_TW dc.creator (作者) 李建霆 zh_TW dc.date (日期) 2011 en_US dc.date.accessioned 30-Oct-2012 10:23:00 (UTC+8) - dc.date.available 30-Oct-2012 10:23:00 (UTC+8) - dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 30-Oct-2012 10:23:00 (UTC+8) - dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0097261012 en_US dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/54235 - dc.description (描述) 碩士 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 國家發展研究所 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 97261012 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 100 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) 千年以來，人類不斷遭遇各種疫病的侵襲，流行速度更勝戰火蔓延，影響整體人類重大，然而隨著醫學知識的進步與衛生環境的改善，許多傳染病已經受到控制乃至根絕，但是生活周遭仍然面臨諸多威脅生命健康的潛藏危機，如果稍有疏失或不慎，傳染病不僅對於人體造成傷害，甚至恐將危害社會、經濟和政治層面，而近年的SARS、H1N1等流行病毒皆造成全球恐慌。防疫工作重點在於及早掌握疫情趨勢以利制定相關因應政策，目前各國對於傳染病的掌握主要透過層層監測系統與歷史平均，藉以判斷該年特定傳染病流行與散佈程度。這些方法受到各種人為與環境因素影響，導致推估疫情成效有限之外，同時所得資料無法直接反應未來疫情，因此導致各國相關單位逐漸嘗試其他預測方法。近年應用預測市場機制預測疫情模式引起公衛領域的重視，相關學術期刊與著名雜誌相繼介紹此一新興模式，同時肯定其在預測傳染病方面的成效與貢獻，而美國和台灣政府部門先後透過此項機制改善現有防疫體系的不足。那麼，預測市場用以預測疫情的成效是否確實如同其在眾多領域取得的成效一樣出眾？鑑於前述問題，本研究分別透過質化與量化的方式發掘公衛、醫學或流病學等其他領域對於「傳染病預測市場」是否能夠成為有效的預測機制或是成為常規的參考方法，結果證實使用的疾管局人員與參與的專業醫事人員認為「傳染病預測市場」確實可以應用於我國疫情預測的層面，但是兩者意見具有程度的差異。 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) For centuries, the spread of various diseases damage countless human beings, which surpass wars in the world. Those diseases not only endanger people’s life, but also invade the other dimensions, including society, economic and politics. With the advancement of medical knowledge and the improvement of public health, many infectious diseases have been brought under control and even eradicated. But humans still face and experience threats from pandemic viruses such as SARS and H1N1 constantly. Epidemic prevention work focuses on understanding the variation of situation as soon as possible. Then governments can set up suitable decisions and policies based on epidemic situation. Though the monitoring system and the historical average are the mainstream to control the trends of infections for related departments, scientists believe that the two methods are subject to humans and environmental factors. In other words, it is difficult to draw effective information and direct response of the future trends from present methods. And it leads to national units gradually try other epidemic forecasting methods. In recent years, using prediction markets to predict flu causes the attention of public health. Thus academic journals and well-known magazines not only introduce this application but approve its effectiveness and contribution in predicting infectious diseases. The departments of US and Taiwan have tried to improve the deficiencies of the existing prevention system through prediction markets. Is this application really as successful as PM in many issues and fields? To response the question, this research intends to through qualitative and quantitative ways respectively to explore the evaluations on Epidemic Prediction Markets behind public health, medical, epidemiology, etc. The result confirms that CDC staff and health workers identify the feasibility of Epidemic Prediction Markets, but with the degree of variation. en_US dc.description.tableofcontents 第一章 緒論 1第一節 研究動機與目的 1第二節 研究問題與方法 5第三節 研究架構 9第二章 文獻回顧 10第一節 預測市場 10第二節 應用預測市場模式預測疫情 13第三節 我國現有疫情監測系統與傳染病預測市場 17第四節 預測市場預測傳染病的爭議 21第三章 以使用者的角度探討「傳染病預測市場」之可行性 23第一節 訪談內容 23第二節 歸納與結論 31第四章 以參與者的角度探討「傳染病預測市場」之可行性 33第一節 基本資料與專業背景分布 34第二節 各類問卷受訪者參與原因 41第三節 滿意程度分析 60第四節 適用性與可行性分析 74第五節 宣傳成效及改善途徑 83第六節 其他相關建議事項 86第五章 結論 87第一節 研究發現與貢獻 87第二節 相關建議 92附錄 98附錄一 訪談內容逐字稿 98附錄二 問卷題目 113 zh_TW dc.language.iso en_US - dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0097261012 en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) 傳染病預測 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 預測市場 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 傳染病預測市場 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 集體智慧 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 可行性 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) nfectious disease Prediction en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Prediction Markets en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Collective Wisdom en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Feasibility en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Epidemic Prediction Markets en_US dc.title (題名) 以使用者與參與者的角度分析「傳染病預測市場」之可行性 zh_TW dc.title (題名) The analysis of feasibility of epidemic prediction markets : from user and participant perspectives en_US dc.type (資料類型) thesis en dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Boschert, S. (2005), “Market Concepts to Predict Influenza Activity,” Internal Medicine News, http://www.internalmedicinenews.com/index.php?id=495&cHash=071010&tx_ttnews[tt_news]=7900CDC, (2009), “See Coordinators Colleagues Letter,” http://www.cdc.gov/stopsyphilis/dear-coord/SEECoordinators-June-2009.pdfCNN, (2003), “Amid furor, Pentagon kills terrorism futures market,” http://edition.cnn.com/2003/ALLPOLITICS/07/29/terror.market/index.htmlCowen, T. (2005), “Avian Flu: What Should Be Done,” Working Paper Series, Mercatus Center, George Mason University. Fama, E. (1991), “Efficient Capital Markets: II,” Journal of Finance 46(5), 1575–1617.Fox News, (2003), “Terrorism Futures Market Plan Canceled,” http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,93190,00.htmlGrossman, S. (1976), “On the Efficiency of Competitive Stock Markets Where Traders Have Diverse Information,” The Journal of Finance, 31(2), 573-85.Hayek, F. (1945), “The Use of Knowledge in Society,” American Economic Review, 35, 519-30.IEHM, (2011), “Predicting a Pandemic,” http://iehm.uiowa.edu/iehm/imgs/Predicting_Pandemic_Brief_final.pdfManski, C. (2006), “Interpreting the Predictions of Prediction Markets,” Economic Letters, 91(3), 425‐29.Masum, H., J. Ranck, and P. Singer (2010), “Five Promising Methods for Health Foresight,” Foresight, 12, 54-66.Moyer, M. (2007), “How to Predict the Future,” Popular Science, 271(1), 69-71.Murray, S. (2003), “Pentagon Retreats From Terror Futures In Face of Criticism,” Wall Street Journal, July 30, P. C1.Pennok, D., S. Lawrence, C. Giles, and F. Nielsen (2001), “The Real Power of Artificial Markets,” Science, 291, 987-988.Polgreen, P., D. Diekema, L. Herwaldt, F. Nelson, and G. Neumann (2007), “A Proposal for the Use of Prediction Markets to Forecast Influenza Activity,” Oxford Journal, 44, 272-279.Polgreen, P., F. Nelson and G. 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