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題名 匯率制度與經濟成長: APEC會員國之實證
Exchange rate regimes and economic growth rates: empirical studies among APEC`s country members
作者 高育幸
貢獻者 林信助<br>郭炳伸
高育幸
關鍵詞 匯率制度
經濟成長
日期 2011
上傳時間 30-Oct-2012 10:39:33 (UTC+8)
摘要 本文主要研究各國匯率制度對經濟成長的影響。
本文不採用官方所宣稱的匯率制度分類,
而改採用較貼近市場真實狀況的匯率制度分類 (Reinhart and Rogoff, 2004), 選擇 APEC 會員國做為實證研究對象。 本文實證檢驗是否在已開發國家中, 具有彈性的匯率制度對經濟成長有正面影響, 以及是否在開發中國家有相同的結果; 並藉此驗證在現行制度中, 各國是否選擇了幫助經濟成長的匯率制度。 本研究發現, 關於 APEC 國家的實證中, 若以整體做為樣本, 則不具彈性的匯率制度是較佳的選擇。
但若將 APEC 分成已開發國家與開發中國家, 則較具彈性的匯率制度適合已開發的國家, 而釘住的匯率制度適合開發中國家。
This paper empirically investigates the effects of exchange rate regimes on economic growth rates, among APEC’s country members. The classification of de facto exchange rate regime in each country follows that of Reinhart and Rogoff (2004), instead of that by IMF, to reflect the reality. We find that for all APEC members, less flexible exchange rate regime appears to be a better choice for economic growth. However, if we divide APEC members by the degrees of economic development, it is evident that developed countries tend to display positive growth under more flexible exchange rate regime, and that developing countries show the tendency under pegged exchange rate one.
參考文獻 李怡萱 (2005), “東亞匯率制度”, 國際金融參考資料, 第五十一輯, 94–120。
詹滿容、 江啟臣 (2002), “『APEC』 與 『WTO』 國際建制之分析與比較”, 亞太經濟合作評論, 第十
期, 11–22。
Arellano, M. and Bover, O. (1995), “Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of
error-components models”, Journal of Econometrics, 68, 29–52.
Bailliu, J. (2000), “Private capital flows, financial development, and economic growth in devel-
oping countries”, Bank of Canada Working Paper, 2000–15.
Bailliu, J., Lafrance, R., and Perrault, J.F. (2003), “Does exchange rate policy matter for
growth?”, International Finance, 6, 381–414.
Barlevy, G. (2004), “The cost of business cycles under endogenous growth”, American Economic
Review, 94, 964–990.
Barro, R. and Lee., J.W. (2001), “International data on educational attainment: Updates and
implications”, Oxford Economic Papers, 53(3).
Bernanke, B. and Blinder, A. S. (1992), “The federal funds rate and the channels of monetary
transmission”, American Economic Review, 82, 901　921.
Bubula, A. and Otker-Robe, I. (2002), “The evolution of exchange rate regimes since 1990:
Evidence from de facto policies”, IMF Working Paper, No. 02/155.
Calvo, G. A. and Reinhart, C. M. (2002), “Fear of floating”, The Quarterly Journal of Eco-
nomics, 17, 379–408.
Calvo, G. A. and Vegh, C. A. (1994), “Stabilization dynamics and backward-looking contracts”,
Journal of Development Economics, 43, 59–84.
De Vita, G. and Kyaw, K. S. (2011), “Dose the choice of exchange regime affect the economic
growth of developing countries?”, Journal of Developing Areas, 6, 135–153.
Friedman, M. (1953), “The methodology of positive economics”, Essays in Positive Economics.
Ghosh, A., Gulde, A., and Ostry, J. (2002), “Exchange-rate regimes. choices and conse-
quences.”, MIT Press, Cambridge, MA.
Ghosh, A. R., Gulde, A. M., Ostry, J. D., and Wolf, H. C. (1997), “Does the nominal exchange
rate regime matter?”, National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper, W5874.
Kneller, R. and Young, G. (2001), “Business cycle volatility, uncertainty and long-run growth”,
The Manchester School, 69, 534–552.
Levy Yeyati, E. and Sturzenegger, F. (1999), “Classifying exchange rate regimes”, Universidad
Torcuato Di Tella, Buenos Aires.
(2001), “Exchange rate regimes and economic performance”, IMF Staff Papers, 47,
62–98.
(2003), “To float or to trail: Evidence on the impact of exchange rate regimes”, Amer-
ican Economic Review, 93, 4.
Mundell, R. (1995), “Exchange rate systems and economic growth”, Rivista de Politica Eco-
nomica, 85, 1–36.
Nurkse, R. (1944), “International currency experience”, Geneva: League of Nations.
Ramey, G. and Valerie, A. R. (1995), “Cross-country evidence of the link between volatility
and growth”, American Economic Review, 85, 1138–51.
Reinhart, C. and Rogoff, K. (2004), “The modern history of exchange rate arrangements: A
reinterpretation”, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 19, 1–48.
描述 碩士
國立政治大學
國際經營與貿易研究所
100351004
100
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0100351004
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 林信助<br>郭炳伸zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) 高育幸zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) 高育幸zh_TW
dc.date (日期) 2011en_US
dc.date.accessioned 30-Oct-2012 10:39:33 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 30-Oct-2012 10:39:33 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 30-Oct-2012 10:39:33 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0100351004en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/54293-
dc.description (描述) 碩士zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國際經營與貿易研究所zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 100351004zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 100zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) 本文主要研究各國匯率制度對經濟成長的影響。
本文不採用官方所宣稱的匯率制度分類,
而改採用較貼近市場真實狀況的匯率制度分類 (Reinhart and Rogoff, 2004), 選擇 APEC 會員國做為實證研究對象。 本文實證檢驗是否在已開發國家中, 具有彈性的匯率制度對經濟成長有正面影響, 以及是否在開發中國家有相同的結果; 並藉此驗證在現行制度中, 各國是否選擇了幫助經濟成長的匯率制度。 本研究發現, 關於 APEC 國家的實證中, 若以整體做為樣本, 則不具彈性的匯率制度是較佳的選擇。
但若將 APEC 分成已開發國家與開發中國家, 則較具彈性的匯率制度適合已開發的國家, 而釘住的匯率制度適合開發中國家。		zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) This paper empirically investigates the effects of exchange rate regimes on economic growth rates, among APEC’s country members. The classification of de facto exchange rate regime in each country follows that of Reinhart and Rogoff (2004), instead of that by IMF, to reflect the reality. We find that for all APEC members, less flexible exchange rate regime appears to be a better choice for economic growth. However, if we divide APEC members by the degrees of economic development, it is evident that developed countries tend to display positive growth under more flexible exchange rate regime, and that developing countries show the tendency under pegged exchange rate one.en_US
dc.description.tableofcontents 1 緒論 .............................1
2 匯率制度與相關文獻 ...............5
2.1 由歷史發展看匯率制度............5
2.2 浮動匯率制度與固定匯率制度 .....6
2.3 支持不同匯率制度之理論..........8
2.4 支持不同匯率制度之實證..........10
2.5 匯率制度的分類..................11
3 模型設定..........................16
3.1 模型設定與變數定義 .............16
3.2 資料來源........................20
3.3 匯率制度虛擬變數定義............20
4 檢測假說與實證分析................23
4.1 初步實證分析 ...................23
4.2 進一步實證分析..................29
5 結論 .............................36
A 各國 Reinhart and Rogoff (2004)匯率制度分類變化情形.......42		zh_TW
dc.language.iso en_US-
dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0100351004en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 匯率制度zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 經濟成長zh_TW
dc.title (題名) 匯率制度與經濟成長: APEC會員國之實證zh_TW
dc.title (題名) Exchange rate regimes and economic growth rates: empirical studies among APEC`s country membersen_US
dc.type (資料類型) thesisen
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 李怡萱 (2005), “東亞匯率制度”, 國際金融參考資料, 第五十一輯, 94–120。
詹滿容、 江啟臣 (2002), “『APEC』 與 『WTO』 國際建制之分析與比較”, 亞太經濟合作評論, 第十
期, 11–22。
Arellano, M. and Bover, O. (1995), “Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of
error-components models”, Journal of Econometrics, 68, 29–52.
Bailliu, J. (2000), “Private capital flows, financial development, and economic growth in devel-
oping countries”, Bank of Canada Working Paper, 2000–15.
Bailliu, J., Lafrance, R., and Perrault, J.F. (2003), “Does exchange rate policy matter for
growth?”, International Finance, 6, 381–414.
Barlevy, G. (2004), “The cost of business cycles under endogenous growth”, American Economic
Review, 94, 964–990.
Barro, R. and Lee., J.W. (2001), “International data on educational attainment: Updates and
implications”, Oxford Economic Papers, 53(3).
Bernanke, B. and Blinder, A. S. (1992), “The federal funds rate and the channels of monetary
transmission”, American Economic Review, 82, 901　921.
Bubula, A. and Otker-Robe, I. (2002), “The evolution of exchange rate regimes since 1990:
Evidence from de facto policies”, IMF Working Paper, No. 02/155.
Calvo, G. A. and Reinhart, C. M. (2002), “Fear of floating”, The Quarterly Journal of Eco-
nomics, 17, 379–408.
Calvo, G. A. and Vegh, C. A. (1994), “Stabilization dynamics and backward-looking contracts”,
Journal of Development Economics, 43, 59–84.
De Vita, G. and Kyaw, K. S. (2011), “Dose the choice of exchange regime affect the economic
growth of developing countries?”, Journal of Developing Areas, 6, 135–153.
Friedman, M. (1953), “The methodology of positive economics”, Essays in Positive Economics.
Ghosh, A., Gulde, A., and Ostry, J. (2002), “Exchange-rate regimes. choices and conse-
quences.”, MIT Press, Cambridge, MA.
Ghosh, A. R., Gulde, A. M., Ostry, J. D., and Wolf, H. C. (1997), “Does the nominal exchange
rate regime matter?”, National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper, W5874.
Kneller, R. and Young, G. (2001), “Business cycle volatility, uncertainty and long-run growth”,
The Manchester School, 69, 534–552.
Levy Yeyati, E. and Sturzenegger, F. (1999), “Classifying exchange rate regimes”, Universidad
Torcuato Di Tella, Buenos Aires.
(2001), “Exchange rate regimes and economic performance”, IMF Staff Papers, 47,
62–98.
(2003), “To float or to trail: Evidence on the impact of exchange rate regimes”, Amer-
ican Economic Review, 93, 4.
Mundell, R. (1995), “Exchange rate systems and economic growth”, Rivista de Politica Eco-
nomica, 85, 1–36.
Nurkse, R. (1944), “International currency experience”, Geneva: League of Nations.
Ramey, G. and Valerie, A. R. (1995), “Cross-country evidence of the link between volatility
and growth”, American Economic Review, 85, 1138–51.
Reinhart, C. and Rogoff, K. (2004), “The modern history of exchange rate arrangements: A
reinterpretation”, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 19, 1–48.		zh_TW