應用社會網路連結預測理論於政府官員職務繼任分析

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題名	應用社會網路連結預測理論於政府官員職務繼任分析 Applying social network analysis and link prediction for government post succession analysis
作者	沈曜廷 Shen, Yau Ting
貢獻者	劉吉軒 Liu, Jyi Shane 沈曜廷 Shen, Yau Ting
關鍵詞	社會網路分析連結預測政府官員異動 Social Network Analysis Link Prediction Government Post Succession
日期	2011
上傳時間	30-Oct-2012 11:07:47 (UTC+8)
摘要	隨著資訊科技的發達，資訊成長的速度日以倍計，對於大量且片斷的資料，社會網路分析(Social Network Analysis)提供我們可能的研究方法。社會網路主要是由節點以及節點彼此間的連結所形成的網路結構，透過社會網路分析和連結預測理論，我們可以從微觀與巨觀的切入角度，來進行龐大資料量的政府人事異動資料庫進行研究分析。本論文研究，將政府人事異動資料庫中的異動記錄建構為人物與職務兩類不同的社會網路結構，並透過社會網路分析以及連結預測，來發掘人物與不同職務之間的相互影響性，並進一步分析在特定職務的實際接任人選上，實際被影響的因素為何。實驗結果呈現本研究所設計出的模型，對於政府人事異動的互動關係在不同角度的觀察上有所幫助，也從中可以發現在實際接任人選上的考量上，歷任人選的歷任職務有相當程度的影響性，並瞭解社會網路分析與連結預測在實際情境應用下的可能性與限制性。 Information grows up in very fast way with the advancement in information technology. SNA (Social Network Analysis) provides the possible research ways for the large number of fragmentary information. Social network is the network structure which constructed by the links of each nodes in it. Through SNA (Social Network Analysis) and Link Prediction theory, we can investigate government official`s succession database with huge amount of data from micro and macro perspectives. The objective of this study is the construction of two different types of person and position social network structures and the exploration of the interaction between the person and position nodes through link prediction theory. We also discover the impact factors for actual appointee of specific position in further analysis. The study result shows the design model helps us to observe the interaction in government official`s succession from different perspectives. We found that is great influence of successive positions of successive candidates in consideration of actual appointee.
參考文獻	[1] 黃俊生。基於社會網路分析連結預測理論之政府官員職位與職務歷程影響研究。國立政治大學資訊科學系碩士論文，2010。. [2] 林岡隆。政府官員異動之社會網路分析。國立政治大學資訊科學系碩士論文，2009。。 [3] 鄭遠祥、甯格致、劉吉軒。應用動態社會網路之事件參與指標於政府官員權力變化觀察。第十六屆人工智慧與應用研討會 (TAAIDT 2011)。pp.126-133。中壢，台灣。 [4] 顏秋來。政務官與事務官體制運作之研究。國家菁英，第二卷第一期，頁21-28， [5] 林嘉誠。政務首長的流動分析－2000.5-2007.5。國家菁英，第三卷第四期，頁1-28，2007。 [6] 胡龍騰。政黨輪替前後高階行政主官流動之比較。國家菁英，第三卷第四期，頁31-42，2007。 [7] 溫文喆、劉吉軒、甯格致。社會網路連結預測應用於職位接替人選推薦。第十五屆人工智慧與應用研討會 (TAAIDT 2010)。新竹，台灣。 [8] Jyi-Shane Liu, Ke-Chih Ning, Applying Link Prediction to Ranking Candidates for High-Level Government Post. In Proceedings of the IEEE/ACM 2011 International Conference on Advances in Social Networks Analysis and Mining, (ASONAM 2011), Kaohsiung, TAIWAN, pp. 145-152. [9] D. Liben-Nowell and J. Kleinberg. "The Link Prediction Problem for Social Networks". in the proceedings of Journal of the American Society for Information Science and Technology, vol. 58, no. 7, pp.1019–1031, 2007. [10] G. Jeh and J. Widom. "Simrank：a measure of structural-context similarity". in KDD`’02: Proceedings of the eighth ACM SIGKDD international conference on Knowledge discovery and data mining, (New York, NY, USA), pp. 538–543, ACM Press, 2002. [11] Hongseok OH, Giuseppe Labinca and Myung-ho Chung. "A Multilevel Model of Group Social Capital". Academy of Management Review. Vol31,No 3.569-582.2006. [12] Ioannis Antonellis, Hector GarciaMolina and ChiChao Chang. "Simrank++: Query Rewriting through Link Analysis of the Click Graph". PVLDB 1（1）: 408-421, 2008. [13] J. Moody and D.R. White. "Structural Cohesion and Embeddedness：A Hierarchical Concept of Social Groups". American Sociological Review. 68（1）：103-127, 2003. [14] J. Scott. "Social Network Analysis：A HandBook". Sage, Newbury Park, CA, 1992. [15] L. C. Freeman. "The Development of Social Network Analysis：A Study in the Sociology of Science". Empirical Press, Vancouver, CA, 2004. [16] M. E. J. Newman, M.Girvan. "Finding and evaluating community structure in networks".Phys. Rev. E 69：026113, 2004. [17] M. E. J. Newman. "Modularity and community structure in networks". Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA. 130：8577-8582, 1006. [18] M. E. J. Newman. "The structure of scientific collaboration networks". Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA, 98：404-409, 2001. [19] R. S. Burt. "Structural Holes. The Social Structure of Competition". Harvard University Press, Combridge MA, 1992. [20] S. P. Borgatti, M.G. Everett. "Network analysis of 2-mode data". Social Network, 19（3）：243-269, 1997. [21] P. J. Carrington, J. Scott, and S. Wasserman. "Models and methods in social network analysis". Cambridge University Pr, 2005. ISBN 0521809592 [22] V. Krebs. "The social life of reuters". Internet Protocal Journal. 3(December):14-25. 2000. [23] E. P. H. Zeggelink, F.N. Stokman, and G. G. van de bunt. "The emergence of groups in the evolution of friendship networks". Journal of Mathematical Sociology. 21:29-55, 1996.
描述	碩士國立政治大學資訊科學學系 96971004 100
資料來源	http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0096971004
資料類型	thesis

dc.contributor.advisor	劉吉軒	zh_TW
dc.contributor.advisor	Liu, Jyi Shane	en_US
dc.contributor.author (Authors)	沈曜廷	zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors)	Shen, Yau Ting	en_US
dc.creator (作者)	沈曜廷	zh_TW
dc.creator (作者)	Shen, Yau Ting	en_US
dc.date (日期)	2011	en_US
dc.date.accessioned	30-Oct-2012 11:07:47 (UTC+8)	-
dc.date.available	30-Oct-2012 11:07:47 (UTC+8)	-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間)	30-Oct-2012 11:07:47 (UTC+8)	-
dc.identifier (Other Identifiers)	G0096971004	en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI)	http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/54461	-
dc.description (描述)	碩士	zh_TW
dc.description (描述)	國立政治大學	zh_TW
dc.description (描述)	資訊科學學系	zh_TW
dc.description (描述)	96971004	zh_TW
dc.description (描述)	100	zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要)	隨著資訊科技的發達，資訊成長的速度日以倍計，對於大量且片斷的資料，社會網路分析(Social Network Analysis)提供我們可能的研究方法。社會網路主要是由節點以及節點彼此間的連結所形成的網路結構，透過社會網路分析和連結預測理論，我們可以從微觀與巨觀的切入角度，來進行龐大資料量的政府人事異動資料庫進行研究分析。本論文研究，將政府人事異動資料庫中的異動記錄建構為人物與職務兩類不同的社會網路結構，並透過社會網路分析以及連結預測，來發掘人物與不同職務之間的相互影響性，並進一步分析在特定職務的實際接任人選上，實際被影響的因素為何。實驗結果呈現本研究所設計出的模型，對於政府人事異動的互動關係在不同角度的觀察上有所幫助，也從中可以發現在實際接任人選上的考量上，歷任人選的歷任職務有相當程度的影響性，並瞭解社會網路分析與連結預測在實際情境應用下的可能性與限制性。	zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要)	Information grows up in very fast way with the advancement in information technology. SNA (Social Network Analysis) provides the possible research ways for the large number of fragmentary information. Social network is the network structure which constructed by the links of each nodes in it. Through SNA (Social Network Analysis) and Link Prediction theory, we can investigate government official`s succession database with huge amount of data from micro and macro perspectives. The objective of this study is the construction of two different types of person and position social network structures and the exploration of the interaction between the person and position nodes through link prediction theory. We also discover the impact factors for actual appointee of specific position in further analysis. The study result shows the design model helps us to observe the interaction in government official`s succession from different perspectives. We found that is great influence of successive positions of successive candidates in consideration of actual appointee.	en_US
dc.description.tableofcontents	第一章緒論 ....................................................................................................................... 8 1.1 研究背景 .................................................................................................................. 8 1.2 研究資料 .................................................................................................................. 9 1.2.1 總統府公報 ........................................................................................................ 9 1.2.2 政府官員異動資料庫 ...................................................................................... 10 1.3 研究動機與目的 ............................................................................................... 11 1.4 本研究之貢獻 ......................................................................................................... 11 1.5 論文架構 ................................................................................................................ 12 第二章文獻探討.............................................................................................................. 14 2.1 社會網路與分析 ............................................................................................... 14 2.1.1 定義 ............................................................................................................... 14 2.1.2 社會網路1-mode 與2-mode 類型之差異 ..................................................... 15 2.2 連結預測 ................................................................................................................ 16 2.2.1 基本概念與定義 .............................................................................................. 16 2.2.2 演算法.............................................................................................................. 17 2.3 小結 ........................................................................................................................ 20 第三章政府官員職務異動網路模型建置與系統架構 .................................................... 22 3.1 研究設計參數名稱說明 ......................................................................................... 22 3.2 政府官員職務異動網路模型建置 .......................................................................... 23 3.3 連結預測應用於職務繼任之方法分析 .................................................................. 25 3.4 系統架構 ................................................................................................................ 27 3.4.1 系統概述 .......................................................................................................... 28 3.4.2 政府官員異動網路模組（Network Module）................................................. 30 3.4.3 相似度計算模組（Simrank Algorithm Module） ............................................ 35 3.4.4 預測列表建立模組（Prediction List Module） ............................................... 37 第四章實驗設計與分析評估 .......................................................................................... 41 4 4.1 實驗資料 ................................................................................................................ 41 4.2 實驗設計 ................................................................................................................ 44 4.3 實驗結果 ................................................................................................................ 45 4.3.1 MRP(Most Recent Predecessor)參數設定討論 ................................................ 46 4.3.2 MRJ(Most Recent Job)參數設定討論 .............................................................. 52 4.3.3 依部門和職等不同分析面向之討論 ............................................................... 54 4.5 實驗總結 ................................................................................................................ 62 4.6 官員資歷與職務繼任之觀察 .................................................................................. 63 第五章結論與未來研究方向 .......................................................................................... 66 5.1 研究結論 ................................................................................................................ 66 5.2 未來研究方向 ......................................................................................................... 67 參考文獻 ............................................................................................................................. 69 附錄一各預測單位歷任官員人數列表 ............................................................................. 71	zh_TW
dc.language.iso	en_US	-
dc.source.uri (資料來源)	http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0096971004	en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞)	社會網路分析	zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞)	連結預測	zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞)	政府官員異動	zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞)	Social Network Analysis	en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞)	Link Prediction	en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞)	Government Post Succession	en_US
dc.title (題名)	應用社會網路連結預測理論於政府官員職務繼任分析	zh_TW
dc.title (題名)	Applying social network analysis and link prediction for government post succession analysis	en_US
dc.type (資料類型)	thesis	en
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻)	[1] 黃俊生。基於社會網路分析連結預測理論之政府官員職位與職務歷程影響研究。國立政治大學資訊科學系碩士論文，2010。. [2] 林岡隆。政府官員異動之社會網路分析。國立政治大學資訊科學系碩士論文，2009。。 [3] 鄭遠祥、甯格致、劉吉軒。應用動態社會網路之事件參與指標於政府官員權力變化觀察。第十六屆人工智慧與應用研討會 (TAAIDT 2011)。pp.126-133。中壢，台灣。 [4] 顏秋來。政務官與事務官體制運作之研究。國家菁英，第二卷第一期，頁21-28， [5] 林嘉誠。政務首長的流動分析－2000.5-2007.5。國家菁英，第三卷第四期，頁1-28，2007。 [6] 胡龍騰。政黨輪替前後高階行政主官流動之比較。國家菁英，第三卷第四期，頁31-42，2007。 [7] 溫文喆、劉吉軒、甯格致。社會網路連結預測應用於職位接替人選推薦。第十五屆人工智慧與應用研討會 (TAAIDT 2010)。新竹，台灣。 [8] Jyi-Shane Liu, Ke-Chih Ning, Applying Link Prediction to Ranking Candidates for High-Level Government Post. In Proceedings of the IEEE/ACM 2011 International Conference on Advances in Social Networks Analysis and Mining, (ASONAM 2011), Kaohsiung, TAIWAN, pp. 145-152. [9] D. Liben-Nowell and J. Kleinberg. "The Link Prediction Problem for Social Networks". in the proceedings of Journal of the American Society for Information Science and Technology, vol. 58, no. 7, pp.1019–1031, 2007. [10] G. Jeh and J. Widom. "Simrank：a measure of structural-context similarity". in KDD`’02: Proceedings of the eighth ACM SIGKDD international conference on Knowledge discovery and data mining, (New York, NY, USA), pp. 538–543, ACM Press, 2002. [11] Hongseok OH, Giuseppe Labinca and Myung-ho Chung. "A Multilevel Model of Group Social Capital". Academy of Management Review. Vol31,No 3.569-582.2006. [12] Ioannis Antonellis, Hector GarciaMolina and ChiChao Chang. "Simrank++: Query Rewriting through Link Analysis of the Click Graph". PVLDB 1（1）: 408-421, 2008. [13] J. Moody and D.R. White. "Structural Cohesion and Embeddedness：A Hierarchical Concept of Social Groups". American Sociological Review. 68（1）：103-127, 2003. [14] J. Scott. "Social Network Analysis：A HandBook". Sage, Newbury Park, CA, 1992. [15] L. C. Freeman. "The Development of Social Network Analysis：A Study in the Sociology of Science". Empirical Press, Vancouver, CA, 2004. [16] M. E. J. Newman, M.Girvan. "Finding and evaluating community structure in networks".Phys. Rev. E 69：026113, 2004. [17] M. E. J. Newman. "Modularity and community structure in networks". Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA. 130：8577-8582, 1006. [18] M. E. J. Newman. "The structure of scientific collaboration networks". Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA, 98：404-409, 2001. [19] R. S. Burt. "Structural Holes. The Social Structure of Competition". Harvard University Press, Combridge MA, 1992. [20] S. P. Borgatti, M.G. Everett. "Network analysis of 2-mode data". Social Network, 19（3）：243-269, 1997. [21] P. J. Carrington, J. Scott, and S. Wasserman. "Models and methods in social network analysis". Cambridge University Pr, 2005. ISBN 0521809592 [22] V. Krebs. "The social life of reuters". Internet Protocal Journal. 3(December):14-25. 2000. [23] E. P. H. Zeggelink, F.N. Stokman, and G. G. van de bunt. "The emergence of groups in the evolution of friendship networks". Journal of Mathematical Sociology. 21:29-55, 1996.	zh_TW

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