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題名 臺灣不同世代退休消費難題分析
The retirement consumption puzzle for different generations in Taiwan作者 姚憲爵 貢獻者 王儷玲
姚憲爵關鍵詞 退休消費難題
退休年齡
世代差異
Retired-Consumption Puzzle
Retirement Age
Difference between Generations日期 2011 上傳時間 30-Oct-2012 11:24:34 (UTC+8) 摘要 過去國外的實證研究結果指出，民眾在退休後的消費支出會有減少的現象，文獻稱此現象為 “退休消費的難題 （Retirement Consumption Puzzle）”。本研究主要目的在於探討不同世代是否在退休消費難題的程度上有所差異。研究結果顯示，臺灣民眾在退休後，家戶的消費並未有顯著的減少現象，但對不同世代戶長退休後的家戶消費行為進行分析，本研究發現相較於20年代的家戶，40年代的退休家戶其退休後的消費有顯著減少現象，可能的原因在於年輕世代面臨人口平均餘命增加所產生的長壽風險，而人口結構老化使得過去養兒防老的觀念式微，以及年輕世代對未來退休金制度產生疑慮，使得年輕世代家戶退休後的消費有顯著下降的現象，此結論顯示不同世代在退休後的消費行為確有顯著差異。
The world is facing the dual effect of life expectancy and declining fertility, this phenomenon will enable society and individuals exposed to the longevity risk. In this study, we use “The Survey of Family Income and Expenditure” from Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics, Executive Yuan, R.O.C.（Taiwan）.The results show that there is a decline in the expenditure of food after retirement, and younger generations decline less than elder generation obviously. There are also declines in work-related expenditures, including clothing, transportations and communication. It means that retired-consumption puzzle is not obvious to younger generations. While the consumption of home management, recreation and education do not drop after retirement, showing leisure time increase and also increase those consumption. Health and medical expense is related to the age and health status, not to the status of work. Total consumption expenditure is no significant correlation with retirement.Finally, there is a trend of younger generation consumption increase. Comparing, it may have retirement plan to support the increasing consumption.參考文獻 中文部分（依作者姓氏筆畫排列）：1. 王儷玲等（2011）,”臺灣退休基金管理制度之研究”，研考會委託研究案。2. 林左裕，楊博翔（2011），逆向房屋抵押貸款在臺灣推行之需求分析。住宅學報，第二十卷第一期，第109-125頁。3. 張雅琳（2003）。公私部門受雇人員的退休決策－兼論退休制度對退休行為的影響。淡江大學產業經濟研究所碩士論文，台北。4. 楊玉婷 （2004），中年與老年人消費行為因果模式與世代差異之研究，淡江大學企業管理學系碩士論文，台北。5. 楊靜利、董宜禎（2007）"台灣的家戶組成變遷：1990-2050"臺灣社會學刊，第38期，第136-173頁。6. 黃識銘 （1999），「生活型態」、「消費態度」與「消費行為」之關連性研究：臺灣地區世代群剖析，私立元智大學管理研究所碩士論文，桃園。7. 詹維玲 （2009）,“臺灣生命循環消費與退休”,《臺灣經濟預測與政策》,39（2）,129-159.8. 范碧珍（2003），預覽銀髮族消費特性。突破雜誌，220期，2003年11月，頁49-67外文部份（依作者姓氏字母順序排列）：1. Aguiar, M. and E. Hurst （2005）, “Consumption versus Expenditure,” Journal of Political Economy, 113（5）, 919–948.2. Aguiar, M. and E. Hurst （2007）, “Life-Cycle Prices and Production,” American Economic Review, 97（5）, 1533–1559.3. Aguiar, M. and E. Hurst （2007）,”Measuring Trends in Leisure: The Allocation of Time Over Five Decades,“ Quarterly Journal of Economics, August 2007, 122(3), 969-10064. Annabelle S. Slingerland et al.（2007）, “Aging, Retirement, and Changes in Physical Activity: Prospective Cohort Findings from the GLOBE Study,” American Journal of Epidemiology, Vol. 165, No. 12: pp 1356–1363.5. Becker, G. （1965）, “A Theory of the Allocation of Time,” The Economic Journal, 75（299）,493–517.6. Catherine Hervé, Etienne Mullet（2009）"Age and factors influencing consumer behaviour,"International Journal of Consumer Studies, Vol., Issue 3, pp 302–308.7. Carroll,C.D.and A.A.Samwick（1998）,“How omportant is Precautionary Saving? ＂Review of Economics and Statistics,80, pp.410-419.8. Erik Hurst （2008）,”The Retirement of a Consumption puzzle,” US National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper#137899. Erich Battistin et al. （2009）,”The Retirement Consumption Puzzle: Evidence from a Regression Discontinuity Approach,” American Economic Review, Vol.99:5, pp2209-2226.10. F. Cribier（1981）, “Changing Retirement Patterns: The Experience of a Cohort of Parisian Salaried Workers , ”Ageing and Society, Vol.1 : pp 51-7111. Flavin, M. A. （1991）, “The Joint Consumption / Asset Demand Decision: A Case Study in Robust Estimation,” US National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper#3802.12. Hamermesh, D. S. （1984）, “Consumption during Retirement: The Missing Link in the Life Cycle,” Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol.66:1, pp.1-7.13. Hurd, M. D. and S. Rohwedder（2003）, “The Retirement-Consumption Puzzle: Anticipated and Actual Declines in Retirement Spending,” US National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper#958614. Hurd, M. D. and S. Rohwedder (2006), “Some Answers to the Retirement-Consumption Puzzle,” National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper#12057.15. James Banks, Richard Blundell and Sarah Tanner（1998）, “Is There a Retirement-Savings Puzzle?”The American Economic Review, Vol. 88, No. 4, pp. 769-788.16. Jonathan D. Fisher, Joseph T. Marchand（2010） "Does the Retirement Consumption Puzzle Differ Across the Distribution?"US Census Bureau Center for Economic Studies Paper No. CES-WP-11-0917. Kennickell, A.and A.Lusardi（2000）,“Accessing the Importance of the Precautionary Saving Motive, ＂Mimeo,University of Chicago.18. Lusardi, A.（1998）, “On the Importance of the Precautionary Motive, ＂American Economic Review, Vol.88, pp,449-453.19. Lynn Sudbury, Peter Simcock（2009） "Understanding older consumers through cognitive age and the list of values: A U.K.-based perspective," Psychology and Marketing, Vol.26, Issue 1, pp 22–38.20. Richard MacMinn（2006） "Longevity Risk and Capital Markets," Journal of Risk and Insurance, Vol. 73, Issue 4, pp551–55721. Richard W. Johnson , Barbara A. Butrica, Corina Mommaerts（2010）, ”Work and Retirement Patterns for the G.I. Generation, Silent Generation, and Early Boomers: Thirty Years of Change,” Boston College Center for Retirement Research Working Paper #2010-8.22. Shelly Lundberg, Richard Startz, Steven Stillman（2003）, “The retirement-consumption puzzle: a marital bargaining approach,” Journal of Public Economics, Vol.87, pp1199-121823. Sarah Smith （2004）,“Can the retirement-consumption puzzle be resolved?” The Institute For Fiscal Studies, Working Paper#04/0724. Wakabayashi Midori（2006）, “The retirement consumption puzzle in Japan,” Journal of Population Economics, Vol. 21, N0. 4, pp.983-100525. Zhang J. et al. （2007） “Effects of longevity and dependency rates on saving and growth: Evidence from a panel of cross countries,” Journal of Development Economics, Vol. 84, Issue 1, pp. 138–154.網路資料1. 《2010年至2060年臺灣人口推計》，2012年3月25日取自經建會網站：http://www.cepd.gov.tw/m1.aspx?sNo=00004552. 《人口靜態統計》，2012年3月25日取自行政院主計處網站：http://www.dgbas.gov.tw/ct.asp?xItem=15408&CtNode=4594&mp=13. 《97年中老年狀況調查統計結果綜合分析》，2012年3月25日取自行政院主計處網站：http://www.dgbas.gov.tw/public/Attachment/972915445771.doc4. 《臺灣社會變遷全記錄》，2012年7月15日取自中央研究院社會學研究所網站：http://www.ios.sinica.edu.tw/ 描述 碩士
國立政治大學
風險管理與保險研究所
99358003
100資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0099358003 資料類型 thesis dc.contributor.advisor 王儷玲 zh_TW dc.contributor.author (Authors) 姚憲爵 zh_TW dc.creator (作者) 姚憲爵 zh_TW dc.date (日期) 2011 en_US dc.date.accessioned 30-Oct-2012 11:24:34 (UTC+8) - dc.date.available 30-Oct-2012 11:24:34 (UTC+8) - dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 30-Oct-2012 11:24:34 (UTC+8) - dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0099358003 en_US dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/54594 - dc.description (描述) 碩士 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 風險管理與保險研究所 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 99358003 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 100 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) 過去國外的實證研究結果指出，民眾在退休後的消費支出會有減少的現象，文獻稱此現象為 “退休消費的難題 （Retirement Consumption Puzzle）”。本研究主要目的在於探討不同世代是否在退休消費難題的程度上有所差異。研究結果顯示，臺灣民眾在退休後，家戶的消費並未有顯著的減少現象，但對不同世代戶長退休後的家戶消費行為進行分析，本研究發現相較於20年代的家戶，40年代的退休家戶其退休後的消費有顯著減少現象，可能的原因在於年輕世代面臨人口平均餘命增加所產生的長壽風險，而人口結構老化使得過去養兒防老的觀念式微，以及年輕世代對未來退休金制度產生疑慮，使得年輕世代家戶退休後的消費有顯著下降的現象，此結論顯示不同世代在退休後的消費行為確有顯著差異。 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) The world is facing the dual effect of life expectancy and declining fertility, this phenomenon will enable society and individuals exposed to the longevity risk. In this study, we use “The Survey of Family Income and Expenditure” from Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics, Executive Yuan, R.O.C.（Taiwan）.The results show that there is a decline in the expenditure of food after retirement, and younger generations decline less than elder generation obviously. There are also declines in work-related expenditures, including clothing, transportations and communication. It means that retired-consumption puzzle is not obvious to younger generations. While the consumption of home management, recreation and education do not drop after retirement, showing leisure time increase and also increase those consumption. Health and medical expense is related to the age and health status, not to the status of work. Total consumption expenditure is no significant correlation with retirement.Finally, there is a trend of younger generation consumption increase. Comparing, it may have retirement plan to support the increasing consumption. en_US dc.description.tableofcontents 表目錄 6圖目錄 6第一章 緒論 7第一節 研究動機與目的 7第二節 研究架構 9第二章 文獻回顧 11第一節 生命週期理論與消費難題 11第二節 家計人口特性 14第三節 臺灣主計處中老年狀況調查 17第四節 不同世代對退休消費相關之觀念變遷 20第三章 研究方法與資料來源 22第一節 研究假說 22第二節 資料來源與範圍 24第三節 研究模型 26第四章 實證研究結果 28第一節 退休年齡與臺灣中高齡勞動參與率變化 28第二節 不同世代家戶收入與消費輪廓 31第三節 迴歸分析結果 35第五章 研究結論與建議 41第一節 研究結論 41第二節 後續研究建議 43參考文獻 45附錄一：不同世代之主要消費輪廓 51 zh_TW dc.language.iso en_US - dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0099358003 en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) 退休消費難題 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 退休年齡 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 世代差異 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) Retired-Consumption Puzzle en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Retirement Age en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Difference between Generations en_US dc.title (題名) 臺灣不同世代退休消費難題分析 zh_TW dc.title (題名) The retirement consumption puzzle for different generations in Taiwan en_US dc.type (資料類型) thesis en dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 中文部分（依作者姓氏筆畫排列）：1. 王儷玲等（2011）,”臺灣退休基金管理制度之研究”，研考會委託研究案。2. 林左裕，楊博翔（2011），逆向房屋抵押貸款在臺灣推行之需求分析。住宅學報，第二十卷第一期，第109-125頁。3. 張雅琳（2003）。公私部門受雇人員的退休決策－兼論退休制度對退休行為的影響。淡江大學產業經濟研究所碩士論文，台北。4. 楊玉婷 （2004），中年與老年人消費行為因果模式與世代差異之研究，淡江大學企業管理學系碩士論文，台北。5. 楊靜利、董宜禎（2007）"台灣的家戶組成變遷：1990-2050"臺灣社會學刊，第38期，第136-173頁。6. 黃識銘 （1999），「生活型態」、「消費態度」與「消費行為」之關連性研究：臺灣地區世代群剖析，私立元智大學管理研究所碩士論文，桃園。7. 詹維玲 （2009）,“臺灣生命循環消費與退休”,《臺灣經濟預測與政策》,39（2）,129-159.8. 范碧珍（2003），預覽銀髮族消費特性。突破雜誌，220期，2003年11月，頁49-67外文部份（依作者姓氏字母順序排列）：1. Aguiar, M. and E. Hurst （2005）, “Consumption versus Expenditure,” Journal of Political Economy, 113（5）, 919–948.2. Aguiar, M. and E. Hurst （2007）, “Life-Cycle Prices and Production,” American Economic Review, 97（5）, 1533–1559.3. Aguiar, M. and E. Hurst （2007）,”Measuring Trends in Leisure: The Allocation of Time Over Five Decades,“ Quarterly Journal of Economics, August 2007, 122(3), 969-10064. Annabelle S. Slingerland et al.（2007）, “Aging, Retirement, and Changes in Physical Activity: Prospective Cohort Findings from the GLOBE Study,” American Journal of Epidemiology, Vol. 165, No. 12: pp 1356–1363.5. Becker, G. （1965）, “A Theory of the Allocation of Time,” The Economic Journal, 75（299）,493–517.6. Catherine Hervé, Etienne Mullet（2009）"Age and factors influencing consumer behaviour,"International Journal of Consumer Studies, Vol., Issue 3, pp 302–308.7. Carroll,C.D.and A.A.Samwick（1998）,“How omportant is Precautionary Saving? ＂Review of Economics and Statistics,80, pp.410-419.8. Erik Hurst （2008）,”The Retirement of a Consumption puzzle,” US National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper#137899. Erich Battistin et al. （2009）,”The Retirement Consumption Puzzle: Evidence from a Regression Discontinuity Approach,” American Economic Review, Vol.99:5, pp2209-2226.10. F. Cribier（1981）, “Changing Retirement Patterns: The Experience of a Cohort of Parisian Salaried Workers , ”Ageing and Society, Vol.1 : pp 51-7111. Flavin, M. A. （1991）, “The Joint Consumption / Asset Demand Decision: A Case Study in Robust Estimation,” US National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper#3802.12. Hamermesh, D. S. （1984）, “Consumption during Retirement: The Missing Link in the Life Cycle,” Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol.66:1, pp.1-7.13. Hurd, M. D. and S. Rohwedder（2003）, “The Retirement-Consumption Puzzle: Anticipated and Actual Declines in Retirement Spending,” US National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper#958614. Hurd, M. D. and S. Rohwedder (2006), “Some Answers to the Retirement-Consumption Puzzle,” National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper#12057.15. James Banks, Richard Blundell and Sarah Tanner（1998）, “Is There a Retirement-Savings Puzzle?”The American Economic Review, Vol. 88, No. 4, pp. 769-788.16. Jonathan D. Fisher, Joseph T. Marchand（2010） "Does the Retirement Consumption Puzzle Differ Across the Distribution?"US Census Bureau Center for Economic Studies Paper No. CES-WP-11-0917. Kennickell, A.and A.Lusardi（2000）,“Accessing the Importance of the Precautionary Saving Motive, ＂Mimeo,University of Chicago.18. Lusardi, A.（1998）, “On the Importance of the Precautionary Motive, ＂American Economic Review, Vol.88, pp,449-453.19. Lynn Sudbury, Peter Simcock（2009） "Understanding older consumers through cognitive age and the list of values: A U.K.-based perspective," Psychology and Marketing, Vol.26, Issue 1, pp 22–38.20. Richard MacMinn（2006） "Longevity Risk and Capital Markets," Journal of Risk and Insurance, Vol. 73, Issue 4, pp551–55721. Richard W. Johnson , Barbara A. Butrica, Corina Mommaerts（2010）, ”Work and Retirement Patterns for the G.I. Generation, Silent Generation, and Early Boomers: Thirty Years of Change,” Boston College Center for Retirement Research Working Paper #2010-8.22. Shelly Lundberg, Richard Startz, Steven Stillman（2003）, “The retirement-consumption puzzle: a marital bargaining approach,” Journal of Public Economics, Vol.87, pp1199-121823. Sarah Smith （2004）,“Can the retirement-consumption puzzle be resolved?” The Institute For Fiscal Studies, Working Paper#04/0724. Wakabayashi Midori（2006）, “The retirement consumption puzzle in Japan,” Journal of Population Economics, Vol. 21, N0. 4, pp.983-100525. Zhang J. et al. （2007） “Effects of longevity and dependency rates on saving and growth: Evidence from a panel of cross countries,” Journal of Development Economics, Vol. 84, Issue 1, pp. 138–154.網路資料1. 《2010年至2060年臺灣人口推計》，2012年3月25日取自經建會網站：http://www.cepd.gov.tw/m1.aspx?sNo=00004552. 《人口靜態統計》，2012年3月25日取自行政院主計處網站：http://www.dgbas.gov.tw/ct.asp?xItem=15408&CtNode=4594&mp=13. 《97年中老年狀況調查統計結果綜合分析》，2012年3月25日取自行政院主計處網站：http://www.dgbas.gov.tw/public/Attachment/972915445771.doc4. 《臺灣社會變遷全記錄》，2012年7月15日取自中央研究院社會學研究所網站：http://www.ios.sinica.edu.tw/ zh_TW
