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題名 臺灣民眾退休不足度分析
The analysis of retirement shortfall in Taiwan
作者 陳彥志
貢獻者 王儷玲
陳彥志
關鍵詞 所得替代率
退休不足度
退休金規劃
Replacement Rate
Retirement Shortfall
Retirement Planning
日期 2011
上傳時間 30-Oct-2012 11:24:39 (UTC+8)
摘要 為探討臺灣民眾退休不足度，本研究不同以往問卷式詢問臺灣民眾準備狀況，使用所得替代率(replacement rate)為工具，建構估算模型，透過宏利人壽委託政大民調中心進行的民調數據，實際估算勞工與軍公教民眾退休不足度，其中發現台灣有24%勞工民眾在退休後無法達到60%所得替代率，且低估死亡時間與高估報酬率都會對勞工退休不足度造成影響。而對軍公教民眾而言，以80%所得替代率進行估算，才會有退休不足的問題，而低估死亡時間與高估報酬率對退休不足影響較小。此外探討退休信心與實際估算不一致的情況，主要發現高所得的勞工民眾，較可能發生有信心但準備不足60%所得替代率的情況，而低所得的勞工民眾，較可能發生沒有信心但可以準備80%所得替代率的情況，本研究認為是因為臺灣現行退休金制度下，高所得的勞工民眾若要達到相同所得替代率，所需儲蓄率高於低所得的勞工民眾。
The purpose of this paper is to examine the Retirement Shortfall in Taiwan by using replacement rate. Building model with the poll data which is commissioned by Manulife Life Insurance and conducted by Market Survey Research Center of National Chengchi University, we found that the populations of the civil servants can achieve 60% replacement rate after retirement, but 24 percent of labors can’t reach the 60% income replacement rate. Besides, the retirement shortfall of labors become worse after adjusting by the overestimate of rate of return and underestimate of longevity risk. In short, labor people should contribute more to their pension in case they may have inadequate retirement situation. Using logistic regression, we found that people of high-income have tendency to feel overly optimistic of their retirement shortfall, vice versa. Social security and pension benefit provide less replacement rate for people of high-income, so rich people need highly save rate.
參考文獻 中文部分：
1.行政院主計總處， 100年中老年就業狀況調查統計結果綜合分析，2011年。
2.中央研究院調查研究中心，高齡社會的來臨：為2025年的臺灣社會規劃之整合研究─不同世代對於老年生活的需求、服務提供以及價值偏好的調查研究，2007年。
3.王儷玲，公教人員保險養老給付年金化之財務精算及評估後續研究，考試院銓敘部退撫司委託研究報告，2009。
4.王儷玲，公務人員退撫制度採行雙層制之制度設計及成本分析研究案企畫書。考試院銓敘部退撫司委託研究案，2010。
5.陳仁泓，退休金個人帳戶下投資決策與所得替代率之探討，政大博碩士論文，2001
6.陳麗如，公務人員退休制度資產負債管理與退休所得替代率之模擬分析 : 以雙層式現金餘額兼採確定提撥計劃為例，政大博碩士論文，2002
7.張士傑、林妙姍，確定提撥方式下退休所得的風險評估，風險管理學報，1999。
8.張勝忠，臺灣退休金制度與年金保險之金錢價值與所得替代率探討，政大博碩士論文，2002
9.黃泓智（2010），公務人員退休撫卹基金第4次精算案。考試院銓敘部退撫司委託研究案。
英文部分：
1.Aldrich, Jonathan，Nov. 1982，The Earnings Replacement Rate of Old-Age Benefits in 12 Countries, 1969-80, Social Security Bulletin, 45(11), 3-11.
2.Alicia H. Munnell, Anthony Webb, and Francesca Golub-Sass，2007，Is there really a retirement saving crisis? An NRRI analysis. Trustees of Boston College, Center for Retirement.
3.Bernbeim, B. Douglas，1992，Is the Baby Boom Generation Preparing Adequately for Retirement, Technical Report, Princeton, N. J.:Merrill Lynch.
4.Brady, Peter J.，2010，“Measuring Retirement Resource Adequacy,” Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Vol. 9 (2)
5.Brown, Jeffrey R.，2002，Redistribution and Insurance: Mandatory Annuitization with Mortality Heterogeneity, The Journal of Risk and Insurance.
6.Brown, Jeffrey R., Olivia S. Mitchell and James M. Poterba，2000，Mortality Risk, Inflation Risk, and Annuity Products, Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, Working paper #7812.
7.Brown, Jeffrey R., Olivia S. Mitchell, James M. Poterba, and Mark J. Warshawsky，2001，The Role of Annuity Markets in Financing Retirement, MIT Press.
8.Doyle, Suzanne, Olivia S. Mitchell and John Piggott，2001，Annuity Values in Defined Contribution Retirement, Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, Working paper #8091.
9.Friedman, Benjamin and Mark J. Warshawsky，Feb. 1990，The Cost of Annuities: Implications for Saving Behavior and Bequests, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 135-54.
10.Grad, Susan，Oct. 1990，Earnings Replacement Rates of New Retired Workers, Social Security Bulletin, 53(10), 2-19.
11.Gustman, Alan L. and Thomas L. Steinmeier，Jun. 1999，Effects of Pensions on Savings: Analysis with Data from the Health and Retirement Study, Carnegie Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, 50(99), 271-324.
12.Horlick, Max，Aug. 1988，Earnings Replacement Rate of Old -Age Benefits: An International Comparison: Commentary, Social Security Bulletin, 51(8), 12, 48-49.
13.HSBC’s The Future of Retirement programme Taiwan Report，2011，Why family matters.
14.HSBC’s The Future of Retirement programme Taiwan Report，2009，Why family matters.
15.HSBC’s The Future of Retirement programme Taiwan Report，2008，Why family matters.
16.HSBC’s The Future of Retirement programme Taiwan Report，2007，Why family matters.
17.HSBC’s The Future of Retirement programme Taiwan Report，2005，Why family matters.
18.James, Estelle and Dimitri Vittas，1999，Annuities Markets in Comparative Per-spective: Do Consumers Get Their Money’s Worth?, World Bank.
19.Jee Yoong Folk, Loo See Beh and Diana-Lea Baranovich，2012，Determinant of retirement planning in Malaysia. Journal of Business Management and Economics Vol. 3(2). pp. 069-078, February, 2012
20.Mitchell, Olivia S., James M. Poterba, Mark J. Warshawsky and Jeffrey R. Brown，1999，New Evidence on the Money’s Worth of Individual Annuities, The American Economic Review, 1299-1318.
21.OECD (2011)，Gross pension replacement rates, Pensions at a glance 2011：Retirement-Income Systems in OECD and G20 countries
22.OECD (2011). Gross pension replacement rates: Public and private schemes, Pensions at a glance 2011：Retirement-Income Systems in OECD and G20 countries Papers and Proceedings of the One Hundred Twentieth Annual Meeting of the American Economic Association (May, 2008), pp. 413-417.
23.Olivia S. Mitchell, James F. Moore，1998，Can Americans Afford to Retire? New Evidence on Retirement Saving Adequacy .The Journal of Risk and Insurance, Vol. 65, No. 3 (Sep., 1998), pp. 371-400
24.Olivia S. Mitchell，2006，Financial Literacy and Planning:Implications for Retirement Wellbeing. The American Economic Review, Vol. 98, No. 2,
25.Scheiber, Sylvester J.，2007，Beyond the Golden Age of Retirement, mimeo Ninth Annual Conference of the Retirement Research Consortium
26.Steinberg, Allen, and Lori Lucas，2004， “Shifting Responsibility to Workers: The Future of Retirement Adequacy in the United States,” Benefits Quarterly, Fourth Quarter,
27.Virginia P. Renoand JoniLavery ，2007， “Social Security and Retirement Income Adequacy” (http://www.ncpssm.org/pdf/nasi-report.pdf)
28.Wai Mun Fong，2002，On the Cost of Adverse Selection in Individual Annuity Markets: Evidence from Singapore, The Journal of Risk and Insurance, 69(2), 193-207.
29.Yoonkyung Yuh, Catherine Phillips Montalto, and Sherman Hanna，1998，Are Americans Prepared For Retirement? Financial Counseling and Planning, Volume 9(1), pp1-13.
30.Yoonkyung Yuh, Sherman Hanna, atherine Phillips Montalto，1998，Mean and pessimistic projections of retirement adequacy，Financial Services Review 7, pp175-193.
描述 碩士
國立政治大學
風險管理與保險研究所
99358016
100
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0099358016
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 王儷玲zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) 陳彥志zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) 陳彥志zh_TW
dc.date (日期) 2011en_US
dc.date.accessioned 30-Oct-2012 11:24:39 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 30-Oct-2012 11:24:39 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 30-Oct-2012 11:24:39 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0099358016en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/54598-
dc.description (描述) 碩士zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 風險管理與保險研究所zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 99358016zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 100zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) 為探討臺灣民眾退休不足度，本研究不同以往問卷式詢問臺灣民眾準備狀況，使用所得替代率(replacement rate)為工具，建構估算模型，透過宏利人壽委託政大民調中心進行的民調數據，實際估算勞工與軍公教民眾退休不足度，其中發現台灣有24%勞工民眾在退休後無法達到60%所得替代率，且低估死亡時間與高估報酬率都會對勞工退休不足度造成影響。而對軍公教民眾而言，以80%所得替代率進行估算，才會有退休不足的問題，而低估死亡時間與高估報酬率對退休不足影響較小。此外探討退休信心與實際估算不一致的情況，主要發現高所得的勞工民眾，較可能發生有信心但準備不足60%所得替代率的情況，而低所得的勞工民眾，較可能發生沒有信心但可以準備80%所得替代率的情況，本研究認為是因為臺灣現行退休金制度下，高所得的勞工民眾若要達到相同所得替代率，所需儲蓄率高於低所得的勞工民眾。zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) The purpose of this paper is to examine the Retirement Shortfall in Taiwan by using replacement rate. Building model with the poll data which is commissioned by Manulife Life Insurance and conducted by Market Survey Research Center of National Chengchi University, we found that the populations of the civil servants can achieve 60% replacement rate after retirement, but 24 percent of labors can’t reach the 60% income replacement rate. Besides, the retirement shortfall of labors become worse after adjusting by the overestimate of rate of return and underestimate of longevity risk. In short, labor people should contribute more to their pension in case they may have inadequate retirement situation. Using logistic regression, we found that people of high-income have tendency to feel overly optimistic of their retirement shortfall, vice versa. Social security and pension benefit provide less replacement rate for people of high-income, so rich people need highly save rate.en_US
dc.description.tableofcontents 目次
目次 i
表目次 iii
圖目次 v
第壹章 緒論 1
第一節 研究動機 1
第二節 研究目的 2
第三節 研究架構 2
第貳章 制度介紹與文獻回顧 4
第一節 臺灣退休金制度簡介 4
第二節 退休不足度相關文獻回顧 7
第三節 臺灣民眾相關退休調查 10
第四節 臺灣與各國退休金制度所得替代率 13
第参章 研究方法 23
第一節 研究資料來源與範圍 23
第二節 退休不足度估算模型 24
第三節 羅吉斯迴歸模型 30
第伍章 實證研究結果 36
第一節 問卷調查結果分析 36
第二節 退休不足度估算結果 40
第三節 勞工民眾退休不足度情境分析 48
第四節 退休預期不一致分析 53
第伍章 結論與建議 63
第一節 結論 63
第二節 建議 65
第三節 研究限制與未來研究建議 67
參考文獻 63		zh_TW
dc.language.iso en_US-
dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0099358016en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 所得替代率zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 退休不足度zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 退休金規劃zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Replacement Rateen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Retirement Shortfallen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Retirement Planningen_US
dc.title (題名) 臺灣民眾退休不足度分析zh_TW
dc.title (題名) The analysis of retirement shortfall in Taiwanen_US
dc.type (資料類型) thesisen
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 中文部分：
1.行政院主計總處， 100年中老年就業狀況調查統計結果綜合分析，2011年。
2.中央研究院調查研究中心，高齡社會的來臨：為2025年的臺灣社會規劃之整合研究─不同世代對於老年生活的需求、服務提供以及價值偏好的調查研究，2007年。
3.王儷玲，公教人員保險養老給付年金化之財務精算及評估後續研究，考試院銓敘部退撫司委託研究報告，2009。
4.王儷玲，公務人員退撫制度採行雙層制之制度設計及成本分析研究案企畫書。考試院銓敘部退撫司委託研究案，2010。
5.陳仁泓，退休金個人帳戶下投資決策與所得替代率之探討，政大博碩士論文，2001
6.陳麗如，公務人員退休制度資產負債管理與退休所得替代率之模擬分析 : 以雙層式現金餘額兼採確定提撥計劃為例，政大博碩士論文，2002
7.張士傑、林妙姍，確定提撥方式下退休所得的風險評估，風險管理學報，1999。
8.張勝忠，臺灣退休金制度與年金保險之金錢價值與所得替代率探討，政大博碩士論文，2002
9.黃泓智（2010），公務人員退休撫卹基金第4次精算案。考試院銓敘部退撫司委託研究案。
英文部分：
1.Aldrich, Jonathan，Nov. 1982，The Earnings Replacement Rate of Old-Age Benefits in 12 Countries, 1969-80, Social Security Bulletin, 45(11), 3-11.
2.Alicia H. Munnell, Anthony Webb, and Francesca Golub-Sass，2007，Is there really a retirement saving crisis? An NRRI analysis. Trustees of Boston College, Center for Retirement.
3.Bernbeim, B. Douglas，1992，Is the Baby Boom Generation Preparing Adequately for Retirement, Technical Report, Princeton, N. J.:Merrill Lynch.
4.Brady, Peter J.，2010，“Measuring Retirement Resource Adequacy,” Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Vol. 9 (2)
5.Brown, Jeffrey R.，2002，Redistribution and Insurance: Mandatory Annuitization with Mortality Heterogeneity, The Journal of Risk and Insurance.
6.Brown, Jeffrey R., Olivia S. Mitchell and James M. Poterba，2000，Mortality Risk, Inflation Risk, and Annuity Products, Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, Working paper #7812.
7.Brown, Jeffrey R., Olivia S. Mitchell, James M. Poterba, and Mark J. Warshawsky，2001，The Role of Annuity Markets in Financing Retirement, MIT Press.
8.Doyle, Suzanne, Olivia S. Mitchell and John Piggott，2001，Annuity Values in Defined Contribution Retirement, Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, Working paper #8091.
9.Friedman, Benjamin and Mark J. Warshawsky，Feb. 1990，The Cost of Annuities: Implications for Saving Behavior and Bequests, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 135-54.
10.Grad, Susan，Oct. 1990，Earnings Replacement Rates of New Retired Workers, Social Security Bulletin, 53(10), 2-19.
11.Gustman, Alan L. and Thomas L. Steinmeier，Jun. 1999，Effects of Pensions on Savings: Analysis with Data from the Health and Retirement Study, Carnegie Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, 50(99), 271-324.
12.Horlick, Max，Aug. 1988，Earnings Replacement Rate of Old -Age Benefits: An International Comparison: Commentary, Social Security Bulletin, 51(8), 12, 48-49.
13.HSBC’s The Future of Retirement programme Taiwan Report，2011，Why family matters.
14.HSBC’s The Future of Retirement programme Taiwan Report，2009，Why family matters.
15.HSBC’s The Future of Retirement programme Taiwan Report，2008，Why family matters.
16.HSBC’s The Future of Retirement programme Taiwan Report，2007，Why family matters.
17.HSBC’s The Future of Retirement programme Taiwan Report，2005，Why family matters.
18.James, Estelle and Dimitri Vittas，1999，Annuities Markets in Comparative Per-spective: Do Consumers Get Their Money’s Worth?, World Bank.
19.Jee Yoong Folk, Loo See Beh and Diana-Lea Baranovich，2012，Determinant of retirement planning in Malaysia. Journal of Business Management and Economics Vol. 3(2). pp. 069-078, February, 2012
20.Mitchell, Olivia S., James M. Poterba, Mark J. Warshawsky and Jeffrey R. Brown，1999，New Evidence on the Money’s Worth of Individual Annuities, The American Economic Review, 1299-1318.
21.OECD (2011)，Gross pension replacement rates, Pensions at a glance 2011：Retirement-Income Systems in OECD and G20 countries
22.OECD (2011). Gross pension replacement rates: Public and private schemes, Pensions at a glance 2011：Retirement-Income Systems in OECD and G20 countries Papers and Proceedings of the One Hundred Twentieth Annual Meeting of the American Economic Association (May, 2008), pp. 413-417.
23.Olivia S. Mitchell, James F. Moore，1998，Can Americans Afford to Retire? New Evidence on Retirement Saving Adequacy .The Journal of Risk and Insurance, Vol. 65, No. 3 (Sep., 1998), pp. 371-400
24.Olivia S. Mitchell，2006，Financial Literacy and Planning:Implications for Retirement Wellbeing. The American Economic Review, Vol. 98, No. 2,
25.Scheiber, Sylvester J.，2007，Beyond the Golden Age of Retirement, mimeo Ninth Annual Conference of the Retirement Research Consortium
26.Steinberg, Allen, and Lori Lucas，2004， “Shifting Responsibility to Workers: The Future of Retirement Adequacy in the United States,” Benefits Quarterly, Fourth Quarter,
27.Virginia P. Renoand JoniLavery ，2007， “Social Security and Retirement Income Adequacy” (http://www.ncpssm.org/pdf/nasi-report.pdf)
28.Wai Mun Fong，2002，On the Cost of Adverse Selection in Individual Annuity Markets: Evidence from Singapore, The Journal of Risk and Insurance, 69(2), 193-207.
29.Yoonkyung Yuh, Catherine Phillips Montalto, and Sherman Hanna，1998，Are Americans Prepared For Retirement? Financial Counseling and Planning, Volume 9(1), pp1-13.
30.Yoonkyung Yuh, Sherman Hanna, atherine Phillips Montalto，1998，Mean and pessimistic projections of retirement adequacy，Financial Services Review 7, pp175-193.		zh_TW