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題名 應用克利金法劃分地價區段之研究
Applying kirging estimation to define land value district
作者 廖彬傑
Liao, Pin Chieh
貢獻者 陳奉瑤
Chen, Feng Yao
廖彬傑
Liao, Pin Chieh
關鍵詞 同質區
地價區段
大量估價
克利金法
地理資訊系統
homogeneous area
land value district
kriging estimation
GIS
日期 2011
上傳時間 30-Oct-2012 11:31:04 (UTC+8)
摘要 我國公部門以課徵土地稅、發放土地徵收補償為目的而進行土地大量估價，並以區段價法與路線價法為主要估價方法。由於此二估價方法之評估基礎為平均區段地價，故是否能準確劃分地價區段乃至關重要。然而，地價調查估計規則中有關地價區段之劃分規定，並無具體規範劃分準則與方式，導致地價人員僅能透過參考各項可得之圖表資料，並根據自身認知與前輩經驗，將地價相近、地段相連、情況相同或相似之土地劃為同一區段。因此，地價區段劃分之公平、客觀、準確性往往遭受民眾質疑。
劃分地價區段之目的係為掌握地區特性，故其實屬劃分同質區之概念。惟地區特性乃難以定義或量化之區域因素的空間聚集特性，致使地價人員難以掌握具體劃分準則，並準確劃分地價區段。而過去相關研究指出難以定義或量化之空間因素存於特徵價格模型的殘差之中，遂有分析殘差之空間特性以劃分同質區者。但是，各種劃分方式皆侷限於已知樣本所在位置的空間關係，導致可能出現無法就整體地區劃分同質區，或出現預測樣本不屬於任何同質區的情況。
由於克利金法可依據樣本的空間變異結構特性推估未知空間位置的觀察值，因此本研究以區域化變數理論為基礎，應用克利金法結合地理資訊系統之空間分析功能，進而依殘差之空間特性劃分空間效果同質區。研究結果顯示該同質區可合理呈現空間效果之同質性，應用於大量估價的準確性佳，且不會扭曲地價高低層次。因此，應用克利金法劃分地價區段確實為合理、準確且可行之方式。
Public assessors evaluate official land value for taxing and compensating by land value district approach and street value approach. Since the basis of these two approaches is land value district, whether public assessors could define it accurately or not is an important issue. However, there are no specific defining criterions in Regulations on Land Value Assessment; public assessors could only refer to concerning information, especially their own subjectivity and experience of senior assessors, to define district in terms of “close land value, connected relation and similar circumstances of lands”. Accordingly, district that defined by public assessors not only the fairness and objectivity, but also the accuracy are quite doubtful.
The main purpose of defining land value district is capturing local characteristics; therefore, it’s similar to the task of defining homogeneous area. Nevertheless, local characteristics are agglomerations of spatial effect, which are difficult to define or quantity. Due to the fact that public assessors are unable to get specific defining principles, they cannot define land value district accurately. A few researches indicate that spatial effect is in the residuals of hedonic pricing model, thus, some researches defining homogeneous area according to the spatial distribution of residuals. However, the defining approaches of these researches are all restricted to spatial location of known samples. Hence, it’s possible to fail to segregate different homogeneous area, or fail to take unknown samples into consideration.
For the reason that kriging estimation can predict unknown spatial location’s value in basis of spatial variation structure characteristics, this research apply kriging estimation and GIS to define homogeneous area based on Theory of Regionalized Variables. The research concludes that homogeneous area which is defined by kriging can capture homogeneity of spatial effect. Besides, the prediction accuracy is quite well by adding variables of homogeneous area to hedonic pricing model. On the other hand, predicted land values still remain the exact relation between each other. Therefore, applying kriging estimation to define land value district is a reasonable, accurate and feasible method.
參考文獻 1. 中文參考文獻
牛文杰、朱大培、陳其明，2001，「泛克里金插值法的研究」，『計算機工程與應用』， 13：73-75、99。
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江穎慧，2009，「不動產自動估價與估價師個別估價之比較—以比較法之案例選取、權重調整與估值三階段差異分析」，『住宅學報』，18(1)：39-62。
吳高偉，1995，「電腦輔助地價區段劃分之研究」，私立逢甲大學土地管理硏究所碩士論文：台中。
花敬群、張金鶚，1999，「住宅空間次市場價格比例與市場規模之關係」，『都市與計劃』，26(1)：79-94。
李泳龍、葉光毅、徐國城，2001，「土地公告現值評價作業改進之研究—數量化I類之運用」，論文發表於〈第二屆地政學術研討會〉，國立政治大學地政學系：台北，民國2001年11月。
李達源、莊愷瑋，2003，「應用地理統計界定污染場址中之污染範圍」，『台灣土壤及地下水環境保護協會簡訊』， 7：2-13。
李建德，2009，「住宅區段地價估價模型之建立：臺北縣三峽鎮為例」，國立政治大學地政研究所碩士論文：台北。
何維信，2002，「行政院國家科學委員會補助專題研究計畫成果報告：以空間資訊輔助地價劃分」，臺北：行政院國家科學委員會。
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林尚德，2003，「以反應空間不穩定性為基礎之土地估價模型建立」，國立成功大學都市計劃研究所碩士論文：台南。
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林祖嘉、林素菁，2009，「住宅次市場定義合理性之探討：因素分析法之應用」，『都市與計劃』，36(2)：133-153。
林祖嘉、馬毓駿，2007，「特徵方程式大量估價法在台灣不動產市場之應用」，『住宅學報』，16(2)：1-22。
周筠珮，2002，「地價區段劃分輔助系統之研究」，國立政治大學地政研究所碩士論文：台北。
徐國城、李泳龍，2007，「公告土地現值評價作業中區域因素調整率的合理性檢討」，『土地問題研究季刊』，6(4)：58-67。
陳心怡、陳彥仲，2002，「台北都會區住宅次市場之界定及其價格變動之觀察」。論文發表於〈中華民國住宅學會第十一屆年會論文集〉，住宅學會：南投，民國91年2月。
陳郁文，1997，「地理資訊系統應用於土地估價之研究」，『人與地』，162：22-28。
陳奉瑤，2003，「繁榮街道路線價標準之研究」，內政部委託研究報告。
陳奉瑤、楊依蓁，2007，「個別估價與大量估價之準確性分析」，『住宅學報』， 16(2)：67-84。
梁仁旭、陳奉瑤，2009，『不動產估價(二版)』，臺北：陳奉瑤。
黃瓊瑤，2002，「現行地價區段查估程序、作法之合理性探討(二)」，『現代地政』，247：14-16。
馮益明，2006，『空間統計學理論及其在林業中的應用』，北京：中國林業出版社。
張梅英、施昱年，2004，「台灣大量估價問題分析及其改進方法之研究」，『土地問題研究季刊』，3(3)：89-105。
鄒克萬、張秀玲、張曜麟，2002，「整合空間統計技術之大量土地估價研究」，『都市與計劃』， 29(3)：395-420。
葉惠中，2000，「區域化變數理論與隨機變域模擬在雨量站網設計之研究」，國立台灣大學農業工程學研究所博士論文：台北。
葉惠中、盧光輝，2006，「地理統計應用於公告土地現值之研究」，『華岡農科學報』，18：15-27。
楊文松，1999，「地理資訊系統輔助土地地價區段劃分之研究」，國立政治大學地政研究所碩士論文：台北。
蔡永利，1994，「改進公告土地現值作業—修正地價調查估計規則之研究」，高雄市政府83年度研究報告。
譚釗孟，1998，「台中市民間住宅供給特性之分析」，逢甲大學建築及都市計畫學系碩士論文：台中。
龔永香、江穎慧、張金鶚，2007，「客觀標準化不動產估價之可行性分析—市場比較法應用於大量估價」，『住宅學報』，16(2)：23-42。

2. 外文參考文獻
Adair, A. S., Berry, J. N. and McGreal, W. S., 1996, “Hedonic Modeling, Housing Submarkets and Residential Valuation”, Journal of Property Research, 13(1): 67-83.
Allen, M. T., Springer, T. M. and Waller, N. G., 1995, “Implicit Pricing Across Residential Submarkets”, Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 11(2): 137-151.
Anselin, L., 2001, A Companion to Theoretical Econometrics, Blackwell: Oxford.
Anselin, L. and Griffith, D. A., 1988, “Do Spatial Effects Really Matter in Regression Analysis”, Papers in Regional Science, 65(1): 11-34.
Anselin, L., 2005, Exploring Spatial Data with GeoDaTM : A Workbook, Illinois: Center for Spatially Integrated Social Science.
Bajic, V., 1985, “Housing-Market Segmentation and Demand for Housing Attributes: Some Empirical Findings”, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, 13(1): 58-75.
Basu, S. and Thibodeau, T. G., 1998, “Analysis of Spatial Autocorrelation in House Prices”, The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 17(1): 61-85.
Bourassa, S. C., Cantoni, E. and Hoesli, M., 2007, “Spatial Dependence, Housing Submarkets, and House Price Prediction”, Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 35(2): 143-160.
Bourassa, S. C., Cantoni, E. and Hoesli, M., 2010, “Predicting House Prices with Spatial Dependence: A Comparison of Alternative Methods”, Journal of Real Estate Research, 32(2): 139-159.
Bourassa, S. C., Hamelink, F., Hoesli, M. and MacGregor, B. D., 1999, “Defining Housing Submarkets”, Journal of Housing Economics, 8(2): 160-183.
Bourassa, S. C., Hoesli, M. and Peng, V. S., 2003, “Do Housing Submarkets Really Matter?”, Journal of Housing Economics, 12(1): 12-28.
Can, A., 1992, “Specification and Estimation of Hedonic Housing Price Models”, Regional Science and Urban Economics, 22(3): 453-474.
Case, B., Clapp, J., Dubin, R. and Rodriguez, M., 2004, “Modeling Spatial and Temporal House Price Patterns: A Comparison of Four Models”, The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 29(2): 167-191.
Case, K. E. and Mayer, C. J., 1995, “Housing Price Dynamics within a Metropolitan Area.” NBER Working Paper, No. 5182. Cambridge: MA.
Clapp, J. and Wang, Y., 2004, “Defining Neighborhood Boundaries: Are Census Tracts Obsolete?” Working paper, US.
Cliff, A. and Ord, J., 1981, Spatial processes, models and applications, London: Pion.
Dale-Johnson, D., 1982, “An Alternative Approach to Housing Market Segmentation Using Hedonic Price Data”, Journal of Urban Economics, 11: 311-332.
Delfiner, P., 1976, “Linear Estimation of Non Stationary Spatial Phenomena.” Advanced Geosstatistics in the Mining Industry, Reidel: Dordrecht.
Dubin, R. A., 1988, “Estimation of Regression Coefficients in the Presence of Spatially Autocorrelated Error Terms”, Review of Economics and Statistics, 70(3): 466-474.
Dubin, R. A., 1992, “Spatial Autocorrelation and Neighbourhood Quality”, Regional Science and Urban Economics, 22: 433-452.
Dubin, R. A., 1998, “Predicting House Prices Using Multiple Listings Data”, Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 17(1): 35-48.
Figueroa, R. A., 1999, “Modeling the Value of Location in Regina Using GIS and Spatial Autocorrelation Statistics”, Assessment Journal, 6: 29-37.
Fletcher, M., Gallimore, P. and Mangan, J., 2000, “The Modelling of Housing Submarkets”, Journal of Property Investment and Finance, 18(4): 473-87.
Fotheringham, A. S., Brunsdon, C.A. and Charlton, M.E., 2002, Geographically Weighted Regression: The Analysis of Spatially Varying Relationships, New York: John Wiley & Sons.
Gabriel, S., 1984, “A note on Housing Market Segmentation in an Israeli Development town”, Urban Studies, 21: 1989-1994.
Galster, G.G., 2003, “Neighborhood Dynamics and Housing Markets.” Housing Economics and Public Policy, edited by O’Sullivan, & K. Gibb, Blackwell: Oxford.
Goodman, A. C., 1981, “Housing Submarkets within Urban Areas: Definitions and Evidence”, Journal of Regional Science, 21(2): 175-185.
Goodman, A. C. and Thibodeau, T. G., 1998, “Housing Market Segmentation”, Journal of Housing Economics, 7: 121-143.
Goodman, A. C. and Thibodeau, T. G., 2003, “Housing Market Segmentation and Hedonic Prediction Accuracy”, Journal of Housing Economics, 12(3): 181-201.
Goodman, A. C. and Thibodeau, T. G., 2007, “The Spatial Proximity of Metropolitan Area Housing Submarkets”, Real Estate Economics, 35(2): 209-32.
Kauko, T., Hooimeijer, P. and Hakfoort, J., 2002, “Capturing Housing Segmentation: An Alternative Approach based on Neural Network Modeling”, Housing Studies, 17(6): 875-894.
Kim, J. and P. Goldsmith, 2009, “A Spatial Hedonic Approach to Assess the Impact of Swine Production on Residential Property Value”, Environmental and Resource Economics, 42(4): 509-534.
Kupfer, J. A. and Farris C. A., 2007, “Incorporating Spatial Nonstationarity of Regression Coefficients into Predictive Vegetation Models”, Landscape Ecology, 22(6): 837-852.
Luo, J. and Wei, Y. D., 2004, “A Geostatistical Modeling of Urban Land Values in Milwaukee, Wisconsin”, Geographic Information Sciences, 10(1): 49-57.
Matheron, G., 1963, “Principles of Geostatistics”, Economic Geology, 58: 1246-1266.
Matheron, G., 1971, Theory of Regionalized Variables and Its Applications, Paris: Ecole National Superieure des Mines.
Michaels, R. G. and Smith, V. K., 1990, “Market Segmentation and Valuing Amenities with Hedonic Models: The Case of Hazardous Waste Sites”, Journal of Urban Economics, 28(2): 223-242.
Neill. H. R., Hassenzahl, D. M. and Assane, D. D., 2007, “Estimating the Effect of Air Quality: Spatial versus Traditional Hedonic Price Models”, Southern Economic Journal, 73(4): 1088-1111.
Olmo, J. C., 1995, “Spatial Estimation of Housing Prices and Locational Rents”, Urban Studies, 32(8): 1331-1344.
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Thibodeau, T. G., 2003, “Marking Single-Family Property Values to Market”, Real Estate Economics, 31(1): 1-22.
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Vanderford, S. E., Mimura, Y. and Sweancy, A. L., 2005, “A Hedonic Price Comparison of Manufacture and Site-built Homes in the Non-MSA USA”, The Journal of Real Estate Research, 27(1): 83-104.
Watkins, C. A., 2001, “The Definition and Identification of Housing Submarkets”, Environment and Planning A, 33: 2235-2253.
Yoo, E. H. and Kyriakidis, P. C., 2009, “Area-to-point Kriging in spatial hedonic pricing models”, Journal of Geographical Systems, 11(4): 381-406.
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3. 網頁參考文獻
內政部地政司，2011，第35期都市地區地價指數。http://www.land.moi.gov.tw/chhtml/allpage.asp?cid=102，取用日期：2011年4月1日。
高雄市政府地政局，2010，公告事項：本市100年土地徵收補償地價加成補償標準經地價及標準地價評議委員會第121次會議評定為3.5成。http://landp.kcg.gov.tw/index2.php?idn=365&nid=1124&more=1，取用日期：2011年6月30日。
描述 碩士
國立政治大學
地政研究所
98257018
100
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0098257018
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 陳奉瑤zh_TW
dc.contributor.advisor Chen, Feng Yaoen_US
dc.contributor.author (Authors) 廖彬傑zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) Liao, Pin Chiehen_US
dc.creator (作者) 廖彬傑zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) Liao, Pin Chiehen_US
dc.date (日期) 2011en_US
dc.date.accessioned 30-Oct-2012 11:31:04 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 30-Oct-2012 11:31:04 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 30-Oct-2012 11:31:04 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0098257018en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/54683-
dc.description (描述) 碩士zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 地政研究所zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 98257018zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 100zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) 我國公部門以課徵土地稅、發放土地徵收補償為目的而進行土地大量估價，並以區段價法與路線價法為主要估價方法。由於此二估價方法之評估基礎為平均區段地價，故是否能準確劃分地價區段乃至關重要。然而，地價調查估計規則中有關地價區段之劃分規定，並無具體規範劃分準則與方式，導致地價人員僅能透過參考各項可得之圖表資料，並根據自身認知與前輩經驗，將地價相近、地段相連、情況相同或相似之土地劃為同一區段。因此，地價區段劃分之公平、客觀、準確性往往遭受民眾質疑。
劃分地價區段之目的係為掌握地區特性，故其實屬劃分同質區之概念。惟地區特性乃難以定義或量化之區域因素的空間聚集特性，致使地價人員難以掌握具體劃分準則，並準確劃分地價區段。而過去相關研究指出難以定義或量化之空間因素存於特徵價格模型的殘差之中，遂有分析殘差之空間特性以劃分同質區者。但是，各種劃分方式皆侷限於已知樣本所在位置的空間關係，導致可能出現無法就整體地區劃分同質區，或出現預測樣本不屬於任何同質區的情況。
由於克利金法可依據樣本的空間變異結構特性推估未知空間位置的觀察值，因此本研究以區域化變數理論為基礎，應用克利金法結合地理資訊系統之空間分析功能，進而依殘差之空間特性劃分空間效果同質區。研究結果顯示該同質區可合理呈現空間效果之同質性，應用於大量估價的準確性佳，且不會扭曲地價高低層次。因此，應用克利金法劃分地價區段確實為合理、準確且可行之方式。		zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) Public assessors evaluate official land value for taxing and compensating by land value district approach and street value approach. Since the basis of these two approaches is land value district, whether public assessors could define it accurately or not is an important issue. However, there are no specific defining criterions in Regulations on Land Value Assessment; public assessors could only refer to concerning information, especially their own subjectivity and experience of senior assessors, to define district in terms of “close land value, connected relation and similar circumstances of lands”. Accordingly, district that defined by public assessors not only the fairness and objectivity, but also the accuracy are quite doubtful.
The main purpose of defining land value district is capturing local characteristics; therefore, it’s similar to the task of defining homogeneous area. Nevertheless, local characteristics are agglomerations of spatial effect, which are difficult to define or quantity. Due to the fact that public assessors are unable to get specific defining principles, they cannot define land value district accurately. A few researches indicate that spatial effect is in the residuals of hedonic pricing model, thus, some researches defining homogeneous area according to the spatial distribution of residuals. However, the defining approaches of these researches are all restricted to spatial location of known samples. Hence, it’s possible to fail to segregate different homogeneous area, or fail to take unknown samples into consideration.
For the reason that kriging estimation can predict unknown spatial location’s value in basis of spatial variation structure characteristics, this research apply kriging estimation and GIS to define homogeneous area based on Theory of Regionalized Variables. The research concludes that homogeneous area which is defined by kriging can capture homogeneity of spatial effect. Besides, the prediction accuracy is quite well by adding variables of homogeneous area to hedonic pricing model. On the other hand, predicted land values still remain the exact relation between each other. Therefore, applying kriging estimation to define land value district is a reasonable, accurate and feasible method.		en_US
dc.description.tableofcontents 第一章 緒論 1
第一節 研究動機與目的 1
第二節 研究方法與範圍 4
第三節 研究架構與流程 8
第二章 文獻回顧 11
第一節 地價區段劃分 11
第二節 同質區劃分 15
第三章 研究設計 21
第一節 應用克利金法劃分同質區之設計 21
第二節 資料蒐集與內容 29
第四章 實證與模擬分析 35
第一節 同質區劃分之實證分析 35
第二節 模擬分析 54
第五章 結論與建議 63
第一節 結論 63
第二節 建議 64
參考文獻 65		zh_TW
dc.language.iso en_US-
dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0098257018en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 同質區zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 地價區段zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 大量估價zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 克利金法zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 地理資訊系統zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) homogeneous areaen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) land value districten_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) kriging estimationen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) GISen_US
dc.title (題名) 應用克利金法劃分地價區段之研究zh_TW
dc.title (題名) Applying kirging estimation to define land value districten_US
dc.type (資料類型) thesisen
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3. 網頁參考文獻
內政部地政司，2011，第35期都市地區地價指數。http://www.land.moi.gov.tw/chhtml/allpage.asp?cid=102，取用日期：2011年4月1日。
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