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題名 法人說明會資訊對供應鏈上下游公司分析師預測之影響-以我國半導體產業為例
The effect from up-stream company`s conference call information on down-stream company`s analysts` forecast-an example from semi-conductor industry in Taiwan
作者 涂智翔
貢獻者 金成隆
涂智翔
關鍵詞 半導體供應鏈
法人說明會
資訊移轉
分析師盈餘預測
文字探勘
日期 2011
上傳時間 30-Oct-2012 11:43:22 (UTC+8)
摘要 法人說明會是公司傳遞內部訊息給外部使用者方法之一，透過法人說明會宣佈財務及非財務資訊，藉以消弭因資訊不對稱所產生之代理問題，亦為分析師作出盈餘預測參考依據之一。在半導體供應鏈中，其上、下游產業間關聯緊密，資訊具有垂直移轉效果，因此，本研究欲探討半導體供應鏈中，下游公司分析師參考上游關聯公司法人說明會資訊並作出盈餘預測調整之程度。
本研究針對國內2005年至2011年半導體上市、櫃公司，進行法人說明會資訊與分析師盈餘預測修正之關聯性。實證結果發現，下游公司財務分析師會參考上游關聯公司召開法人說明會所宣佈之預測財務及非財務資料，並修正對公司之盈餘預測；且供應鏈中，上、下游關係越遠及國籍為外國之分析師，對上游關聯公司法人說明會資訊依賴程度越高，作出的盈餘預測調整幅度越大。
參考文獻 王正芬，1999，「台灣資訊電子產業版圖」，財訊出版社(初版)。
利浩廷，2001，月營收宣告資訊移轉效果之研究－以資訊電子業為例，國立政治大學會計學系碩士論文。
吳晉誠，2005，法人說明會與公司治理變數對分析師盈餘預測影響之研究，淡江大學會計學系碩士論文。
金成隆、紀信義與林裕凱，2005，強制性財務預測與法人說明會關聯性之研究，管理學報，第二十二卷第5期：629-651。
金成隆、林美鳳與梁嘉紋，2008，公司治理結構和法人說明會之關聯性研究，管理學報，第二十五卷第二期：221-243。
許靜娟與徐聞天，1999，台灣半導體產業供應鏈管理之探討，資訊與電腦，第229期(8月號)。
廖益興、陳彥綺與王貞靜，2011，年報資訊揭露與資訊不對稱：來自私有資訊交易之證據，經濟研究，第47卷第1期：45-96。
鄭金龍，2002，台灣半導體供應鏈體系之探討，高雄第一科技大學碩士論文。
鄭晃忠，半導體產業趨勢，電子資訊，第2 卷6 期。
林雯瑜，1999， 關聯產業盈餘宣告之資訊移轉研究，國立中興大學會計學研究所未出版碩士論文。
蔡雯旭，2007，公司治理與分析師評等之關聯性研究，天主教輔仁大學會計學系在職專班碩士論文。
黃勝輝，2001，上市公司財務預測更新之資訊移轉效果研究，國立台灣大學財務金融學研究所碩士論文。


Baginski, S. P. 1987. Intraindustry information transfers associated with management forecasts of earnings. Journal of Accounting Research 25 (February): 196-216.
Barron, O., D. Byard, and O. Kim. 2002. Changes in analysts’ information around earnings announcements. The Accounting Review 77(4): 821-846.
Beaver, W. H. 2002, Perspectives on recent capital market research. The Accounting Review 77(2): 453-474.
Bowen, R. M., A. K. Davis, and D. A. Matsumoto. 2002. Do conference calls affect Analysts’ Forecasts. The Accounting Review 77: 285-316.
Brown, S., S. Hillegeist, and K. Lo. 2004. Conference calls and information asymmetry. Journal of Accounting and Economics 47: 208-225.
Bushee, J. B., D. A. Matsumoto, and G. S. Miller. 2003. Open versus closed conference calls: the determinants and effects of broadening access to disclosure. Journal of Accounting and Economics 34: 149-180.
Cotter, J., I. Tuna, and P. D. Wysocki. 2006. Expectations management and beatable targets: How do analysts react to public earnings guidance? Working Paper, University of Southern Queensland.
Dell’Acqua, A., F. Perrini, and S. Caselli. 2010. Conference calls and stock price volatility in the Post-Reg FD era. European Financial Management 16(2): 256-270.
Diamond, D. W. and R. E. Verrecchia. 1991. Disclosure, liquidity and the cost of capital. The Journal of Finance 46(4): 1325-1360.
Easley, D. and M. O’Hara. 2004. Information and the cost of capital. The Journal of Finance 59(4): 1553-1583.
Firth, M. 1996. Dividend changes, abnormal returns, and intra-industry firm valuations. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 31(2): 189-211.
Foster, G. 1981. Intra- industry information transfers associated with earnings releases. Journal of Accounting and Economics 3: 201-232.
Francis, J. R., I. K. Khurana, and R. Pereira. 2005. Disclosure incentives and effect on cost of capital around the world, The Accounting Review 80(4): 1125-1162.
Francis, J., D. Nanda, and P. Olsson. 2008. Voluntary disclosure, earnings quality, and cost of capital. Journal of Accounting Research 46(1): 53-99.
Frankel, R., M. Johnson, and D. J. Skinner. 1999. An empirical examination of conference calls as a voluntary disclosure medium. Journal of Accounting Research 37: 133-150.
Freeman, R. and S. Tse. 1992. An earnings prediction approach to examining inter- company information transfers. Journal of Accounting and Economics 15: 509-24.
Han, J., C. Y., and J. J. Wild. 1990. Unexpected earnings and intra- industry information transfers: further evidence. Journal of Accounting Research 28(Spring): 211-19.
Healy, P. M. and K. G. Palepu. 2001. Information asymmetry, corporate disclosure and the capital markets: a review of the empirical disclosure literature. Journal of Accounting and Economics 31(1-3): 405-440.
Hollander, S., M. Pronk, and E. M. Roelofsen. 2010. Does silence speak? An empirical analysis of disclosure choice during conference calls. Journal of Accounting Research 48(3): 531-563.
Kimbrough, M. D. 2005. The effect of conference calls on analyst and market underreaction to earnings announcements. The Accounting Review 80(1): 189-219.
Kimbrough, M. D. and H. Louis. 2011. Voluntary disclosure to influence investor reactions to merger announcements: an examination of conference calls. The Accounting Review 86(2): 637-667.
Lang, M. H., K. V. Lins, and D. P. Miller. 2004. Concentrated control, analyst following, and valuation: do analysts matter most when investors are protected least? Journal of Accounting Research 42(3): 589-622.
Matsumoto, D., M. Pronkz, and E. Roelofsen. 2011. What makes conference calls useful? The information content of managers’ presentations and analysts’ discussion sessions. The Accounting Review 86(4): 1383-1414.
Mayew, W. J. 2008. Evidence of management discrimination among analysts during earnings conference calls. Journal of Accounting Research 46(3): 627-658.
Malloy, C. J. 2005. The geography of equity analysis. The Journal of Finance 60(2): 719-755.
Olsen, C. and J. R. Dietrich. 1985. Vertical information transfers: the association between retailers sales’ announcements and suppliers’ security returns. Journal of Accounting Research 23: 144-66.
Oranee, T. and D. Ranjan. 2002. Intra-industry reactions to stock split announcements. The Journal of Financial Research 25(1): 39-58.
Pownall, G. and G. Waymire. 1989. Voluntary disclosure choice and earnings information transfer. Journal of Accounting Research 27: 85-110.
Metters, M. 1997. Quantifying the bullwhip effect in supply chains. Journal of Operations Management 15(2): 89-100.
Richardson, S., S. H. Teoh, and P. Wysocki. 2004. The Walk-down to Beatable Analyst Forecasts: The Role of Equity Issuance and Insider Trading Incentives. Contemporary Accounting Research 21(4): 885-924.
Stickel, S. E. 1989. The timing of and incentives for annual earnings forecasts near interim earnings announcements. Journal of Accounting and Economics 11(2-3): 275-292.
Stober, T. 1992. Summary finacial statement measures and analysis’ forecasts of earnings. Journal of Accounting and Economics 15(2-3): 347-372.
Sullivan, D. 2001. Document warehousing and text mining: techniques for improving business operations, marketing and sales. Wiley: Dan Sullivan.
Tasker S. C. 1998. Bridging the information gap: quarterly conference calls as a medium for voluntary disclosure. Review of Accounting Studies 3: 137-167.
描述 碩士
國立政治大學
會計研究所
99353040
100
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0099353040
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 金成隆zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) 涂智翔zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) 涂智翔zh_TW
dc.date (日期) 2011en_US
dc.date.accessioned 30-Oct-2012 11:43:22 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 30-Oct-2012 11:43:22 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 30-Oct-2012 11:43:22 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0099353040en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/54757-
dc.description (描述) 碩士zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 會計研究所zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 99353040zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 100zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) 法人說明會是公司傳遞內部訊息給外部使用者方法之一，透過法人說明會宣佈財務及非財務資訊，藉以消弭因資訊不對稱所產生之代理問題，亦為分析師作出盈餘預測參考依據之一。在半導體供應鏈中，其上、下游產業間關聯緊密，資訊具有垂直移轉效果，因此，本研究欲探討半導體供應鏈中，下游公司分析師參考上游關聯公司法人說明會資訊並作出盈餘預測調整之程度。
本研究針對國內2005年至2011年半導體上市、櫃公司，進行法人說明會資訊與分析師盈餘預測修正之關聯性。實證結果發現，下游公司財務分析師會參考上游關聯公司召開法人說明會所宣佈之預測財務及非財務資料，並修正對公司之盈餘預測；且供應鏈中，上、下游關係越遠及國籍為外國之分析師，對上游關聯公司法人說明會資訊依賴程度越高，作出的盈餘預測調整幅度越大。		zh_TW
dc.description.tableofcontents 第壹章 緒論 1
第一節 研究動機與目的 1
第二節 研究問題 3
第三節 研究貢獻 5
第四節 研究架構 6
第貳章 文獻探討 8
第一節 半導體供應鏈 8
第二節 資訊移轉 11
第三節 法人說明會 14
第四節 公司揭露資訊對分析師盈餘預測之影響 17
第五節 文字探勘工具 19
第參章 研究設計 24
第一節 研究假說 24
第二節 研究方法 27
第三節 實證模型 36
第四節 變數衡量 39
第五節 研究期間與樣本選取 43
第肆章 實證結果與分析 46
第一節 敘述性統計分析 46
第二節 實證結果 52
第三節 敏感性分析 59
第伍章 研究結論、限制與建議 62
第一節 研究結論 62
第二節 研究限制 63
第三節 研究建議 63
參考文獻 64		zh_TW
dc.language.iso en_US-
dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0099353040en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 半導體供應鏈zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 法人說明會zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 資訊移轉zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 分析師盈餘預測zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 文字探勘zh_TW
dc.title (題名) 法人說明會資訊對供應鏈上下游公司分析師預測之影響-以我國半導體產業為例zh_TW
dc.title (題名) The effect from up-stream company`s conference call information on down-stream company`s analysts` forecast-an example from semi-conductor industry in Taiwanen_US
dc.type (資料類型) thesisen
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 王正芬，1999，「台灣資訊電子產業版圖」，財訊出版社(初版)。
利浩廷，2001，月營收宣告資訊移轉效果之研究－以資訊電子業為例，國立政治大學會計學系碩士論文。
吳晉誠，2005，法人說明會與公司治理變數對分析師盈餘預測影響之研究，淡江大學會計學系碩士論文。
金成隆、紀信義與林裕凱，2005，強制性財務預測與法人說明會關聯性之研究，管理學報，第二十二卷第5期：629-651。
金成隆、林美鳳與梁嘉紋，2008，公司治理結構和法人說明會之關聯性研究，管理學報，第二十五卷第二期：221-243。
許靜娟與徐聞天，1999，台灣半導體產業供應鏈管理之探討，資訊與電腦，第229期(8月號)。
廖益興、陳彥綺與王貞靜，2011，年報資訊揭露與資訊不對稱：來自私有資訊交易之證據，經濟研究，第47卷第1期：45-96。
鄭金龍，2002，台灣半導體供應鏈體系之探討，高雄第一科技大學碩士論文。
鄭晃忠，半導體產業趨勢，電子資訊，第2 卷6 期。
林雯瑜，1999， 關聯產業盈餘宣告之資訊移轉研究，國立中興大學會計學研究所未出版碩士論文。
蔡雯旭，2007，公司治理與分析師評等之關聯性研究，天主教輔仁大學會計學系在職專班碩士論文。
黃勝輝，2001，上市公司財務預測更新之資訊移轉效果研究，國立台灣大學財務金融學研究所碩士論文。


Baginski, S. P. 1987. Intraindustry information transfers associated with management forecasts of earnings. Journal of Accounting Research 25 (February): 196-216.
Barron, O., D. Byard, and O. Kim. 2002. Changes in analysts’ information around earnings announcements. The Accounting Review 77(4): 821-846.
Beaver, W. H. 2002, Perspectives on recent capital market research. The Accounting Review 77(2): 453-474.
Bowen, R. M., A. K. Davis, and D. A. Matsumoto. 2002. Do conference calls affect Analysts’ Forecasts. The Accounting Review 77: 285-316.
Brown, S., S. Hillegeist, and K. Lo. 2004. Conference calls and information asymmetry. Journal of Accounting and Economics 47: 208-225.
Bushee, J. B., D. A. Matsumoto, and G. S. Miller. 2003. Open versus closed conference calls: the determinants and effects of broadening access to disclosure. Journal of Accounting and Economics 34: 149-180.
Cotter, J., I. Tuna, and P. D. Wysocki. 2006. Expectations management and beatable targets: How do analysts react to public earnings guidance? Working Paper, University of Southern Queensland.
Dell’Acqua, A., F. Perrini, and S. Caselli. 2010. Conference calls and stock price volatility in the Post-Reg FD era. European Financial Management 16(2): 256-270.
Diamond, D. W. and R. E. Verrecchia. 1991. Disclosure, liquidity and the cost of capital. The Journal of Finance 46(4): 1325-1360.
Easley, D. and M. O’Hara. 2004. Information and the cost of capital. The Journal of Finance 59(4): 1553-1583.
Firth, M. 1996. Dividend changes, abnormal returns, and intra-industry firm valuations. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 31(2): 189-211.
Foster, G. 1981. Intra- industry information transfers associated with earnings releases. Journal of Accounting and Economics 3: 201-232.
Francis, J. R., I. K. Khurana, and R. Pereira. 2005. Disclosure incentives and effect on cost of capital around the world, The Accounting Review 80(4): 1125-1162.
Francis, J., D. Nanda, and P. Olsson. 2008. Voluntary disclosure, earnings quality, and cost of capital. Journal of Accounting Research 46(1): 53-99.
Frankel, R., M. Johnson, and D. J. Skinner. 1999. An empirical examination of conference calls as a voluntary disclosure medium. Journal of Accounting Research 37: 133-150.
Freeman, R. and S. Tse. 1992. An earnings prediction approach to examining inter- company information transfers. Journal of Accounting and Economics 15: 509-24.
Han, J., C. Y., and J. J. Wild. 1990. Unexpected earnings and intra- industry information transfers: further evidence. Journal of Accounting Research 28(Spring): 211-19.
Healy, P. M. and K. G. Palepu. 2001. Information asymmetry, corporate disclosure and the capital markets: a review of the empirical disclosure literature. Journal of Accounting and Economics 31(1-3): 405-440.
Hollander, S., M. Pronk, and E. M. Roelofsen. 2010. Does silence speak? An empirical analysis of disclosure choice during conference calls. Journal of Accounting Research 48(3): 531-563.
Kimbrough, M. D. 2005. The effect of conference calls on analyst and market underreaction to earnings announcements. The Accounting Review 80(1): 189-219.
Kimbrough, M. D. and H. Louis. 2011. Voluntary disclosure to influence investor reactions to merger announcements: an examination of conference calls. The Accounting Review 86(2): 637-667.
Lang, M. H., K. V. Lins, and D. P. Miller. 2004. Concentrated control, analyst following, and valuation: do analysts matter most when investors are protected least? Journal of Accounting Research 42(3): 589-622.
Matsumoto, D., M. Pronkz, and E. Roelofsen. 2011. What makes conference calls useful? The information content of managers’ presentations and analysts’ discussion sessions. The Accounting Review 86(4): 1383-1414.
Mayew, W. J. 2008. Evidence of management discrimination among analysts during earnings conference calls. Journal of Accounting Research 46(3): 627-658.
Malloy, C. J. 2005. The geography of equity analysis. The Journal of Finance 60(2): 719-755.
Olsen, C. and J. R. Dietrich. 1985. Vertical information transfers: the association between retailers sales’ announcements and suppliers’ security returns. Journal of Accounting Research 23: 144-66.
Oranee, T. and D. Ranjan. 2002. Intra-industry reactions to stock split announcements. The Journal of Financial Research 25(1): 39-58.
Pownall, G. and G. Waymire. 1989. Voluntary disclosure choice and earnings information transfer. Journal of Accounting Research 27: 85-110.
Metters, M. 1997. Quantifying the bullwhip effect in supply chains. Journal of Operations Management 15(2): 89-100.
Richardson, S., S. H. Teoh, and P. Wysocki. 2004. The Walk-down to Beatable Analyst Forecasts: The Role of Equity Issuance and Insider Trading Incentives. Contemporary Accounting Research 21(4): 885-924.
Stickel, S. E. 1989. The timing of and incentives for annual earnings forecasts near interim earnings announcements. Journal of Accounting and Economics 11(2-3): 275-292.
Stober, T. 1992. Summary finacial statement measures and analysis’ forecasts of earnings. Journal of Accounting and Economics 15(2-3): 347-372.
Sullivan, D. 2001. Document warehousing and text mining: techniques for improving business operations, marketing and sales. Wiley: Dan Sullivan.
Tasker S. C. 1998. Bridging the information gap: quarterly conference calls as a medium for voluntary disclosure. Review of Accounting Studies 3: 137-167.		zh_TW