Publications-Theses
Article View/Open
Publication Export
-
Google ScholarTM
NCCU Library
Citation Infomation
Related Publications in TAIR
題名 軍公教從業身份對生育決策的影響
The impacts of the employment of civil servant on reproductive decision in Taiwan作者 李聖水
Lee, Sheng Shui貢獻者 吳文傑<br>林馨怡
李聖水
Lee, Sheng Shui關鍵詞 從業身分
軍公教人員
生育決策
生育子女數
生育間隔
Civil servants
Employment
Reproductive decision
Number of children
Birth interval日期 2011 上傳時間 30-Oct-2012 11:47:55 (UTC+8) 摘要 本文使用行政院主計處發布的民國99年度「臺灣地區婦女婚育與就業調查」，研究完成生育的樣本其軍公教從業身分對於生育決策的影響，探討生育的四個面向，包括有無生育子女、生育子女數、結婚至生第一胎的間隔和第一胎至第二胎的生育間隔，其中有無生育子女、結婚至生第一胎的間隔和第一胎至第二胎的生育間隔在實證分析上採用二元邏輯斯特迴歸模型(Binary Logistic Model)，生育子女數則是採用順序邏輯斯特迴歸模型(Ordered Logistic Model)與卜瓦松迴歸模型(Poisson Regression Model)分析。迴歸結果顯示（1）配偶的從業身分為軍公教人員，相較於其他從業身分，有子女的機率較高，（2）婦女的從業身分為軍公教人員，相較於其他從業身分，生育子女數會較多，（3）配偶的從業身分為軍公教人員，相較於其他從業身分，第一胎至生第二胎的間隔會較短，而從業身分為軍公教人員的結婚至生第一胎之間隔會較短，則未從實證上獲得驗證。
Using the data “Survey of Women`s Marriage, Fertility and Employment of 2010 in Taiwan” conducted by DGBAS in this context, we want to realize how the women or their spouses who are civil servants will make their reproductive decisions. Moreover, we are concerned about whether they have children or not, their number of children, their intervals between the marriage and the first birth, and their intervals between the first birth and the second birth. In order to know whether they have children or not, their intervals between the marriage and the first birth, and their intervals between the first birth and the second birth, applying Binary logistic model to analysis them. Furthermore, we also apply Ordered logistic model and Poisson regression model to resolve how to make the decision of quantity of children. The empirical results show if the spouses are public servants, there is more probability in having children and short intervals between the first birth and the second birth. They also have more children than the other people. Besides, if the women are civil servants, they have more children than the other people. However, we can’t prove if the women or their spouses are civil servants, they have more probability in short intervals between the marriage and the first birth from this empirical analysis.參考文獻 中文部分李美慧 (2008),“女性勞動參與率、高等教育率、結婚率及女性失業率對台灣地區生育率之影響─以縱斷面VAR模式為實證研究”,多國籍企業管理評論,2(2),93-101.林宇璇、劉怡玟、林惠生 (2002),“台灣婦女生育態度與行為及其轉變”,人口轉型與社會、國民健康研討會之研討會論文.夏曉娟 (2000), “資本國際化下的國際婚姻-以臺灣的「外籍新娘」現象為例”,臺灣社會研究季刊,39,45-92.張素梅 (1976),“臺灣生育率決定因素的分析”,社會科學論叢,25,399-412.張清溪、曹慧玲 (1981), “臺灣地區生育率的決定因素與婦女勞動參與率的聯立模型分析”,臺大人口學刊,5,71-118.張明正、李美慧 (2001),“臺灣地區人口轉型後之生育趨勢與發展”，臺大人口學刊,23,93-112.楊麗秀 (1981),“臺灣地區有偶育齡婦女勞動參與對生育率的影響”,臺大人口學刊,5,119-141.劉一龍、王德睦 （2005）,“台灣地區總生育率的分析：完成生育率與生育步調之變化”,人口學刊,30,97-123.蔡文瑜 (2004), “外籍新娘現象的解析與省思”,社區發展季刊,105,208-216.盧正春 (1995), “透視我國軍公教福利(上)”,律師通訊,164,15-22.盧正春 (1995),“透視我國軍公教福利(下)”,律師通訊,171,26-34.駱明慶 (2007),“台灣總生育率下降的表象與實際”,研究台灣,3,37-60.英文部分Becker, Gary S.(1981),“A treatise on the family”, Harvard University Press, Cambridge, MA.CDC.(1998),“Risk factors for short interpregancy interval-Utah, June 1996-June1997”,Morbidity Mortality Weekly Rep,47,930-934.Conde-Agudelo A and Belizan JM (2000),“Maternal morbidity and mortality associated with interpregnancy interval: cross sectional study”, BMJ ,321:1255-1259.Dey, I.and Wasoff, F. (2010),“ Another child? Fertility ideals, resources and opportunities”. Population Research and Policy Review 29: 921-940.Edwards, M.E.(2002),“Education and occupations: reexamining the conventional wisdom about later first births among American mothers”, SociologicalForum, 17(3):423-443.Kim, S-Y and Stinner, W. F.(1980),“Social origins, education attainment and the timing of marriage and first birth among Korean women”, Journal of marriage and the family,671-679.Kalwij, A.S. (2000),“ The effects of female employment status on the presence and number of children”, Journal of Population Economics 13: 221–239.Kaharuza FM, Sabroe S and Basso, O.(2003),“ Choice and chance: determinants of short interpregnancy intervals in Denmark”, Acta Obstet Gynecol Scand 2001; 80: 532–8.Melki IS, Beydoun HA, Khogali M, Tamim H and Yunis KA (2004),“Household crowding index: a correlate of socioeconomic status and inter-pregnancy spacing in an urban setting” J. Epidemiol. Community Health,58(6):476-80.Nath, D. C., Land, K. C. and Goswami, G. (1999),“Effects of the status of womenon the first-birth interval in Indian urban society:, J. Biosoc. Sci. 31: 55–69.Smith GC, Pell JP and Dobbie R.(2003),“Interpregnancy interval and risk of preterm birth and neonatal death: retrospective cohort study”,BMJ,327.Tu,P.(1991),“Birth spacing patterns and correlates in Shaanxi, China”, Studies in Family Planning,22(4),255-263.Tsay WJ and Cyrus Chu CY (2005) ,“The pattern of birth spacing during Taiwan’s demographictransition”, J Popul Econ ,18(2):323–336.Vitali, A., Billari, F.C., Prskawetz, A., and Testa, M.R. (2009),“ Preference theory and low fertility: A comparative perspective”, European Journal of Population 25(4): 413-438.Zheng, Z. Z.(2000),“ Social-demographic influence on first birth interval in China,1980—1992”, Journal of Biosocial Science 32(2): 315–327.Zhu BP (2005),“ Effect of interpregnancy interval on birth outcomes: findings from three recent US studies”, Int J Gynaecol Obstet,89:s25–s33. 描述 碩士
國立政治大學
經濟學系
99258002
100資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0099258002 資料類型 thesis dc.contributor.advisor 吳文傑<br>林馨怡 zh_TW dc.contributor.author (Authors) 李聖水 zh_TW dc.contributor.author (Authors) Lee, Sheng Shui en_US dc.creator (作者) 李聖水 zh_TW dc.creator (作者) Lee, Sheng Shui en_US dc.date (日期) 2011 en_US dc.date.accessioned 30-Oct-2012 11:47:55 (UTC+8) - dc.date.available 30-Oct-2012 11:47:55 (UTC+8) - dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 30-Oct-2012 11:47:55 (UTC+8) - dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0099258002 en_US dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/54811 - dc.description (描述) 碩士 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 經濟學系 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 99258002 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 100 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) 本文使用行政院主計處發布的民國99年度「臺灣地區婦女婚育與就業調查」，研究完成生育的樣本其軍公教從業身分對於生育決策的影響，探討生育的四個面向，包括有無生育子女、生育子女數、結婚至生第一胎的間隔和第一胎至第二胎的生育間隔，其中有無生育子女、結婚至生第一胎的間隔和第一胎至第二胎的生育間隔在實證分析上採用二元邏輯斯特迴歸模型(Binary Logistic Model)，生育子女數則是採用順序邏輯斯特迴歸模型(Ordered Logistic Model)與卜瓦松迴歸模型(Poisson Regression Model)分析。迴歸結果顯示（1）配偶的從業身分為軍公教人員，相較於其他從業身分，有子女的機率較高，（2）婦女的從業身分為軍公教人員，相較於其他從業身分，生育子女數會較多，（3）配偶的從業身分為軍公教人員，相較於其他從業身分，第一胎至生第二胎的間隔會較短，而從業身分為軍公教人員的結婚至生第一胎之間隔會較短，則未從實證上獲得驗證。 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) Using the data “Survey of Women`s Marriage, Fertility and Employment of 2010 in Taiwan” conducted by DGBAS in this context, we want to realize how the women or their spouses who are civil servants will make their reproductive decisions. Moreover, we are concerned about whether they have children or not, their number of children, their intervals between the marriage and the first birth, and their intervals between the first birth and the second birth. In order to know whether they have children or not, their intervals between the marriage and the first birth, and their intervals between the first birth and the second birth, applying Binary logistic model to analysis them. Furthermore, we also apply Ordered logistic model and Poisson regression model to resolve how to make the decision of quantity of children. The empirical results show if the spouses are public servants, there is more probability in having children and short intervals between the first birth and the second birth. They also have more children than the other people. Besides, if the women are civil servants, they have more children than the other people. However, we can’t prove if the women or their spouses are civil servants, they have more probability in short intervals between the marriage and the first birth from this empirical analysis. en_US dc.description.tableofcontents 摘要………………………………………………………………………………… I英文摘要……………………………………………………………………………II目錄………………………………………………………………………………III圖目錄……………………………………………………………………………… V表目錄………………………………………………………………………………VI第一章 緒論…………………………………………………………………………1第一節 研究背景與動機……………………………………………………………1第二節 研究目的……………………………………………………………………6第三節 研究架構與方法……………………………………………………………6第四節 研究限制……………………………………………………………………7第五節 研究流程……………………………………………………………………8第二章 文獻回顧……………………………………………………………………9第一節 生育率與生育子女數相關文獻…………………………………………9 第二節 生育間隔相關文獻……………………………………………………… 13第三章 實證模型設定…………………………………………………………… 19第一節 假說設定………………………………………………………………… 9第二節 相關模型設定…………………………………………………………… 21 3.2.1 有無生育女…………………………………………………… 21 3.2.2 生育子數……………………………………………………… 23 3.2.3 結婚至生第一胎為短生育隔………………………………… 26 3.2.4 第一胎至第二胎為短生育隔………………………………… 27第三節 變數預測………………………………………………………………… 29 3.3.1 有無生育子女之變數測……………………………………… 29 3.3.2 生育子女數之變數測………………………………………… 32 3.3.3 結婚至生第一胎為短生育間隔之變數測…………………… 34 3.3.4 第一胎至生第二胎為短生育間隔之變數測………………… 36第四章 資料來源與敘述性統計………………………………………………… 41第一節 資料來源………………………………………………………………… 41第二節 樣本的篩選方式………………………………………………………… 41第三節 變數設定………………………………………………………………… 42第四節 完成生育的樣本敘述性統計…………………………………………… 49 4.4.1 被解釋變數敘述計………………………………………… 49 4.4.2 解釋變數敘述計…………………………………………… 52 4.4.3 解釋變數對平均生育子女數、結婚至第一胎的平均生育間隔 與第一胎至第二胎的平均生育間隔之敘述性統計…………… 58第五章 實證分析………………………………………………………………… 71第一節 有無生育子女之實證分析……………………………………………… 71第二節 生育子女數之實證分析………………………………………………… 74 5.2.1 順序邏輯斯特模型之實果………………………………… 74 5.2.2 卜瓦松回歸模型之實果…………………………………… 75第三節 結婚至生第一胎為短生育間隔之實證分析……………………………80第四節 第一胎至生第二胎為短生育間隔之實證分析…………………………83第六章 結論與建議………………………………………………………………87第一節 結論………………………………………………………………………87第二節 建議……………………………………………………………………… 88參考文獻 ………………………………………………………………………… 90圖目錄圖1-1 台灣歷年總生育率趨勢圖(1951年~2011年)……………………………2圖1-2 研究流程圖…………………………………………………………………8圖4-1 有無生育子女圓餅圖…………………………………………………… 49圖4-2 婦女為軍公教人員圓餅圖……………………………………………… 55圖4-3 婦女為外籍配偶圓餅圖………………………………………………… 55圖4-4 配偶為軍公教人員圓餅圖……………………………………………… 58圖4-5 居住地圓餅圖…………………………………………………………… 58圖4-6 婦女從業身分之被解釋變數平均……………………………………… 59圖4-7 配偶的從業身分之被解釋變數平均…………………………………… 60圖4-8 初婚年紀分組之被解釋變數平均……………………………………… 61圖4-9 婦女教育程度之被解釋變數平均……………………………………… 62圖4-10 婦女所得分組之被解釋變數平均………………………………………64圖4-11 外籍配偶與非外籍配偶之被解釋變數平均……………………………65圖4-12 配偶教育程度之被解釋變數平均………………………………………67圖4-13 配偶所得分組之被解釋變數平均………………………………………69圖4-14 居住地之被解釋變數平均………………………………………………70表目錄表1-1 15歲以上女性未率……………………………………………………… 3表1-2 15~49歲已婚女性之初婚年齡……………………………………… 3 表1-3 15歲以上女性之初婚年齡-按教育程度與婚前工作況………………3 表1-4 15歲以上已婚女性之生育子女數-按教育程度………………………… 4 表1-5 提升25至49歲未婚女性結婚意願之主要因素(99年度) …………… 4 表1-6 提升15~49歲有偶同居女性想(再)生育意願之因素…………………… 5表2-1 實證上生育率與生育子女數相關文獻整理(案年份彙整)……………… 17表2-2 實證上結婚到第一胎出生間隔相關文獻整理(案年份彙整)…………… 18表2-3 實證上第一胎到第二胎出生間隔相關文獻整理(案年份彙整)………… 18表3-1 各解釋變數對被解釋變數預期影響的方向……………………………… 40表4-1 被解釋變數和解釋變數定義表…………………………………………… 47表4-2 生育子女數、結婚至生第一胎的間隔和第一胎至生第二胎的間隔之 基本統計量………………………………………………………………… 50表4-3 生育子女數次數分配表…………………………………………………… 51表4-4 結婚至生第一胎間隔次數分配表………………………………………… 51表4-5 第一胎至生第二胎的間隔次數分配表…………………………………… 52表4-6 各變數基本統計量………………………………………………………… 52表4-7 婦女初婚年紀次數分配表………………………………………………… 53表4-8 婦女教育年數次數分配表………………………………………………… 54表4-9 婦女所得次數分配表……………………………………………………… 54表4-10 配偶年紀次數分配表 …………………………………………………… 56表4-11配偶教育年數次數分配表………………………………………………… 56表4-12 配偶所得次數分配表 …………………………………………………… 57表4-13 配偶年紀分組平均子女數 ……………………………………………… 66表5-1 有無生育子女迴歸係數表………………………………………………… 72表5-2 有無生育子女之Odds Ratio表 ………………………………………… 73表5-3 生育子女數迴歸係數表(使用順序邏輯斯特模型)……………………… 76表5-4 生育子女數Odds Ratio表(使用順序邏輯斯特模型)………………… 77表5-5 生育子女數迴歸係數表(使用卜瓦松迴歸模型)………………………… 78表5-6 生育子女數邊際效果表(使用卜瓦松迴歸模型)………………………… 79表5-7 結婚至第一胎為短生育間隔迴歸係數表………………………………… 81表5-8 結婚至第一胎為短生育間隔Odds Ratio表 …………………………… 82表5-9 第一胎至生第二胎為短生育間隔迴歸係數表…………………………… 84表5-10 第一胎至生第二胎為短生育間隔Odds Ratio表……………………… 85表5-11 迴歸結果各變數影響方向……………………………………………… 86 zh_TW dc.language.iso en_US - dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0099258002 en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) 從業身分 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 軍公教人員 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 生育決策 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 生育子女數 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 生育間隔 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) Civil servants en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Employment en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Reproductive decision en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Number of children en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Birth interval en_US dc.title (題名) 軍公教從業身份對生育決策的影響 zh_TW dc.title (題名) The impacts of the employment of civil servant on reproductive decision in Taiwan en_US dc.type (資料類型) thesis en dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 中文部分李美慧 (2008),“女性勞動參與率、高等教育率、結婚率及女性失業率對台灣地區生育率之影響─以縱斷面VAR模式為實證研究”,多國籍企業管理評論,2(2),93-101.林宇璇、劉怡玟、林惠生 (2002),“台灣婦女生育態度與行為及其轉變”,人口轉型與社會、國民健康研討會之研討會論文.夏曉娟 (2000), “資本國際化下的國際婚姻-以臺灣的「外籍新娘」現象為例”,臺灣社會研究季刊,39,45-92.張素梅 (1976),“臺灣生育率決定因素的分析”,社會科學論叢,25,399-412.張清溪、曹慧玲 (1981), “臺灣地區生育率的決定因素與婦女勞動參與率的聯立模型分析”,臺大人口學刊,5,71-118.張明正、李美慧 (2001),“臺灣地區人口轉型後之生育趨勢與發展”，臺大人口學刊,23,93-112.楊麗秀 (1981),“臺灣地區有偶育齡婦女勞動參與對生育率的影響”,臺大人口學刊,5,119-141.劉一龍、王德睦 （2005）,“台灣地區總生育率的分析：完成生育率與生育步調之變化”,人口學刊,30,97-123.蔡文瑜 (2004), “外籍新娘現象的解析與省思”,社區發展季刊,105,208-216.盧正春 (1995), “透視我國軍公教福利(上)”,律師通訊,164,15-22.盧正春 (1995),“透視我國軍公教福利(下)”,律師通訊,171,26-34.駱明慶 (2007),“台灣總生育率下降的表象與實際”,研究台灣,3,37-60.英文部分Becker, Gary S.(1981),“A treatise on the family”, Harvard University Press, Cambridge, MA.CDC.(1998),“Risk factors for short interpregancy interval-Utah, June 1996-June1997”,Morbidity Mortality Weekly Rep,47,930-934.Conde-Agudelo A and Belizan JM (2000),“Maternal morbidity and mortality associated with interpregnancy interval: cross sectional study”, BMJ ,321:1255-1259.Dey, I.and Wasoff, F. (2010),“ Another child? Fertility ideals, resources and opportunities”. Population Research and Policy Review 29: 921-940.Edwards, M.E.(2002),“Education and occupations: reexamining the conventional wisdom about later first births among American mothers”, SociologicalForum, 17(3):423-443.Kim, S-Y and Stinner, W. F.(1980),“Social origins, education attainment and the timing of marriage and first birth among Korean women”, Journal of marriage and the family,671-679.Kalwij, A.S. (2000),“ The effects of female employment status on the presence and number of children”, Journal of Population Economics 13: 221–239.Kaharuza FM, Sabroe S and Basso, O.(2003),“ Choice and chance: determinants of short interpregnancy intervals in Denmark”, Acta Obstet Gynecol Scand 2001; 80: 532–8.Melki IS, Beydoun HA, Khogali M, Tamim H and Yunis KA (2004),“Household crowding index: a correlate of socioeconomic status and inter-pregnancy spacing in an urban setting” J. Epidemiol. Community Health,58(6):476-80.Nath, D. C., Land, K. C. and Goswami, G. (1999),“Effects of the status of womenon the first-birth interval in Indian urban society:, J. Biosoc. Sci. 31: 55–69.Smith GC, Pell JP and Dobbie R.(2003),“Interpregnancy interval and risk of preterm birth and neonatal death: retrospective cohort study”,BMJ,327.Tu,P.(1991),“Birth spacing patterns and correlates in Shaanxi, China”, Studies in Family Planning,22(4),255-263.Tsay WJ and Cyrus Chu CY (2005) ,“The pattern of birth spacing during Taiwan’s demographictransition”, J Popul Econ ,18(2):323–336.Vitali, A., Billari, F.C., Prskawetz, A., and Testa, M.R. (2009),“ Preference theory and low fertility: A comparative perspective”, European Journal of Population 25(4): 413-438.Zheng, Z. Z.(2000),“ Social-demographic influence on first birth interval in China,1980—1992”, Journal of Biosocial Science 32(2): 315–327.Zhu BP (2005),“ Effect of interpregnancy interval on birth outcomes: findings from three recent US studies”, Int J Gynaecol Obstet,89:s25–s33. zh_TW
