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題名 模組化經濟下雙占產業之演化與競爭: 基於代理人基模型模擬之分析
Pricing competition in the duopolistic market: analysis based on agent-based simulation
作者 蘇信璋
Su, Hsin Chang
貢獻者 陳樹衡
Chen, Shu Heng
蘇信璋
Su, Hsin Chang
關鍵詞 模組化經濟
代理人基模型
價格競爭
市占率
Modular economy
Agent-Based model
Pricing competition
Market share
日期 2011
上傳時間 30-Oct-2012 11:48:00 (UTC+8)
摘要 本研究是利用代理人基模型 (Agent-Based model) 結合遺傳規劃法(genetic programming) 在模組化經濟體系下價格動態對市占率之影響。現今企業多數以市占率作為公司在市場上表現的主要指標，如果擁有高市占率的廠商，可以確定在這產業中生存。以往的文獻顯示模組化經濟下高價格廠商在市場上的表現會優於低價格廠商，取決重要因素為品質，因為高價產品通常品質也較高，容易取得消費者喜愛。本研究想探討是否在這個體系下，消費者所考量的都是以品質高低來決定是否購買產品，是否會有過去以往的價格競爭情形，以及在價格動態體系，市場所呈現的風貌如何。本研究設計39組的加成率參數組，並依據兩間廠商的決策上製作成價格動態矩陣圖表。試圖以這些已知參數組與線性內插法所預測之市占率的參數組進行分析。此研究模擬中發現，在模組化經濟下，價格競爭並不一定會讓市占率趨向於某一點均衡，也可能會趨向於一條路徑上。而且不一定是高價位的廠商會有很大機會獲得市場，也沒有所謂的贏家擁有超高市占率的情況產生。
This study is the use of agent-based model combined with genetic programming to explore the impact of the price dynamics for the market share in the modular economy. Nowadays, the majority of enterprises use market share as the key performance indicators in the market, if the enterprise has a high market share, it can be determined to survive in this industry. The previous literature shows that manufacturers of high prices on the market under the modular economy will be better than the low-price manufacturers, depending on the important factors for quality. Expensive products are usually higher quality, easily favorite by consumers. My study is to investigate whether consumers consider in this system are based on the level of quality to decide to buy the product or not, and whether there will be price competitive situation, as well as the outlook presented by the market price dynamics system.
      In this paper, we design 39 markup rate’s parameter set and making price dynamic matrix diagram in accordance with the decisions of two manufacturers. Trying to analyze these known parameter set and the parameter set of the market share predicted by the linear interpolation. The simulation of the study found that in the modular economy price competition does not necessarily make the market share tends to a equilibrium point, or it may also tend to be a equilibrium path. But not necessarily high-priced manufacturers get to the market, there is no so-called winners with higher market share.
參考文獻 (一)中文部分
     約瑟夫 • 熊彼得著, 何畏、易家詳合譯, 2005, 經濟發展概論, 左岸文化.
     
     池秉聰, 2007, "經濟學中的創新:代理人基計算建模", 國立政治大學經濟學系研究所博士論文。
     
     (二)英文部分
     Ahrweiler, Petra, Andreas Pyka and Nigel Gilbert, 2011, "A New Model for University-industry Links in Knowledge-based Economies", Journal of Product Innovation Management 28 (2), 218-235.
     
     Baye, M., J. Morgan and P. Scholten, 2006, "Information, Search, and Price Dispersion", Chapter 6 in Handbook on Economics and Information, T. Hendershott edt., Elsevier, Amsterdam 2006.
     
     Cabral, L., 2007, "Dynamic Price Competition with Network Effects", Working Paper, New York University and CEPR.
     
     Chan, C.C. Henry, Chi Bin Cheng and Wen Chen Hsien, 2011, "Pricing and Promotion Strategies of an Online Shop Based on Customer Segmentation and Multiple Objective Decision Making", Expert Systems with Applications 38, 14585-14591.
     
     Chang, M.H., 2009, "Industry Dynamics with Knowledge-based Competition: A Computational Study of Entry and Exit Patterns", Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination 4, 73–114.
     
     Chang, Ray M., Wonseok Oh and Alain Pinsonneault, 2010, "A Network Perspective of Digital Competition in Online Advertising Industries: A Simulation-Based Approach", Information Systems Research 21(3), 571–593.
     
     Chen, Shu Heng and Bin Tzong Chie, 2007, "Modularity, Product Innovation, and Consumer Satisfaction: An Agent-based Approach", in Intelligent Data Engineering and Automated Learning, Lecture Notes in Computer Science, edited by H. Yin, P. Tino, E. Corchado, W. Byrne and X. Yao. Berlin: Springer, 1053–1062.
     
     Chen, S.H. and C.C. Ni, 1999, "Using Genetic Algorithms to Simulate the Evolution of an Oligopoly Game", Second Asia-Pacific Conference on Simulation Evolution and Learning, SEAL98, LNCS 1585, 293-300.
     
     Chie, Bin Tzong and Shu Heng Chen, 2010, "Social Interactions and Innovation: Simulation Based on an Agent-based Modular Economy", in Marco LiCalzi, Lucia Milone and Paolo Pellizzari (eds.), Progress in Artificial Economics: Computational and Agent-Based Models, Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems, Vol. 645, Springer, 127-138.
     
     Chie, Bin Tzong and Shu Heng Chen, 2011, "Non-Price Competition in an Agent-Based Modular Economy", 37th Eastern Economic Association Annual Conference, New York City, New York, Feb 25-27.
     
     Chung, K.Y., 2000, "Hotel Room Pricing Strategy for Market Share in Oligopolistic Competition – Eight-year Longitudinal Study of Super Deluxe Hotels in Seoul", Tourism Management 21, 135-145.
     
     Clemenz, Gerhard and Klaus Gugler, 2006, "Locational Choice and Price Competition: Some Empirical Results for the Austrian Gasoline Market", Empirical Economics 31(2), 291–312.
     
     Currie, C.S.M., R.C.H. Cheng and H.K. Smith, 2008, "Dynamic Pricing of Airline Tickets with Competition", Journal of the Operational Research Society 59, 1026-1037.
     
     Dawid, H. and M. Reimann, 2011, "Diversification: A Road to Inefficiency in Product Innovations?", The Journal of Evolutionary Economics 21(2), 191–229.
     
     Fleckinger, P. and T. Lafay, 2010, "Product Flexibility and Price Competition in Hotelling`s Duopoly", Mathematical Social Sciences 60(1), 61-68.
     
     Garcia, R., 2005, "Uses of Agent-based Modeling in Innovation/new Product Development Research", The Journal of Product Innovation Management 22 (1), 380-398.
     
     Gilbert, N., P. Ahrweiler and A. Pyka, 2007, "Learning in Innovation Networks: Some Simulation Experiments", Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and Its Applications 378 (1), 100–109.
     
     Goettler, R. and B. Gordon, 2011, "Does AMD Spur Intel to Innovate More?", manuscript, Journal of Political Economy 119(6), 1141-1200.
     
     Griva, K. and N. Vettas, 2005, "Price Competition in a Differentiated Products Duopoly under Network Effects", CEPR Discussion Paper.
     
     Hoppe, H. and U. Lehmann-Grube, 2008, "Price Competition in Markets with Customer Testing: The Captive Customer Effect", Economic Theory 35, 497–521.
     
     Ivaldi, M. and C. Vibes, 2008, "Price Competition in the Intercity Passenger Transport Market: A Simulation Model", Journal of Transport Economics and Policy 42(2), 225-262.
     
     Iwu, C.G., 2010, "Impact of Product Development and Innovation on Market Share", African Journal of Business Management 4(13), 2659-2667.
     
     Iyer, G. and P.B. Seetharaman, 2008, "Too Close to be Similar: Product and Price Competition in Retail Gasoline Markets", Quant. Marketing Economic 6, 205-234.
     
     Lenz-Cesar, Fla’vio and Heshmati Almas, 2012, "An Econometric Approach to Identify Determinants of Cooperation for Innovation among Firms", Applied Economics Letters 19, 227–235.
     
     Khorana, Ajay and Henri Servaes, 2012, "What Drives Market Share in the Mutual Fund Industry? ", Review of Finance 16, 81-113.
     
     Kim, S., K. Lee, J.K. Cho and C.O. Kim, 2011, "Agent-Based Diffusion Model for an Automobile Market with Fuzzy TOPSIS-based Product Adoption Process", Expert Systems with Applications 38(6), 7270–7276.
     
     Matsubayashi, N., 2007, "Price and Quality Competition: The Effect of Differentiation and Vertical Integration", European Journal of Operational Research 180, 907-921.
     
     Mukherjee, A., 2005, "Price and Quantity Competition under Free Entry", Research in Economics 59, 335-344.
     
     Parlar, M. and Z.K. Weng, 2006, "Coordinating Pricing and Production Decisions in the Presence of Price Competition", European Journal of Operational Research 170, 211–227.
     
     Said, L.B., T. Bouron and A. Drogoul, 2002, "Agent-Based Interaction Analysis of Consumer Behavior", In Proceedings of the first international joint conference on Autonomous agents and multiagent systems, 184–190, ACM Press.
     
     Tay, N.S.P. and R.F. Lusch., 2005, "A Preliminary Test of Hunt’s General Theory of Competition: Using Artificial Adaptive Agents to Study Complex and Ill-Defined Environments", Journal of Business Research 58, 1155-1168.
     
     Van Eck, P.S., W. Jager, and P.S.H. Leeflang, 2011, "Opinion Leaders’ Role in Innovation Diffusion: A Simulation Study", The Journal of Product Innovation Management 28 (2), 187-203.
     
     Wersching, Klaus, 2010, "Schumpeterian Competition, Technological Regimes and Learning Through Knowledge Spillover", Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization 75, 482-493.
     
     Wu, D.D., X. Kefan, L. Hua, Z. Shi and D.L. Olson, 2010, "Modeling Technological Innovation Risks of an Entrepreneurial Team Using System Dynamics: An agent-based perspective", Technological Forecasting and Social Change 77(6), 857-869.
     
     Yue, X., S.K. Mukhopadhyay and X. Zhu, 2006, "A Bertrand Model of Pricing of Complementary Goods under Information Asymmetry", Journal of Business Research 59, 1182-1192.
     
     Zhang, T. and W. Nuttall, 2011, "Evaluating Government’s Policies on Promoting Smart Metering in Retail Electricity Markets via Agent Based Simulation", Journal of Product Innovation Management 28(2), 169-186.
     
     Zhang, L., D.M. Levinson and S. Zhu, 2008, "Agent-Based Model of Price Competition, Capacity Choice, and Product Differentiation on Congested Networks", Journal of Transport Economics and Policy 42(3), 435–461.
     
     Zhang, Tong and B. Wade Brorsen, 2011, "Oligopoly Firms with Quantity-price Strategic Decisions", The Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination 6, 157-170.
描述 碩士
國立政治大學
經濟學系
99258029
100
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0099258029
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 陳樹衡zh_TW
dc.contributor.advisor Chen, Shu Hengen_US
dc.contributor.author (Authors) 蘇信璋zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) Su, Hsin Changen_US
dc.creator (作者) 蘇信璋zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) Su, Hsin Changen_US
dc.date (日期) 2011en_US
dc.date.accessioned 30-Oct-2012 11:48:00 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 30-Oct-2012 11:48:00 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 30-Oct-2012 11:48:00 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0099258029en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/54814-
dc.description (描述) 碩士zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 經濟學系zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 99258029zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 100zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) 本研究是利用代理人基模型 (Agent-Based model) 結合遺傳規劃法(genetic programming) 在模組化經濟體系下價格動態對市占率之影響。現今企業多數以市占率作為公司在市場上表現的主要指標，如果擁有高市占率的廠商，可以確定在這產業中生存。以往的文獻顯示模組化經濟下高價格廠商在市場上的表現會優於低價格廠商，取決重要因素為品質，因為高價產品通常品質也較高，容易取得消費者喜愛。本研究想探討是否在這個體系下，消費者所考量的都是以品質高低來決定是否購買產品，是否會有過去以往的價格競爭情形，以及在價格動態體系，市場所呈現的風貌如何。本研究設計39組的加成率參數組，並依據兩間廠商的決策上製作成價格動態矩陣圖表。試圖以這些已知參數組與線性內插法所預測之市占率的參數組進行分析。此研究模擬中發現，在模組化經濟下，價格競爭並不一定會讓市占率趨向於某一點均衡，也可能會趨向於一條路徑上。而且不一定是高價位的廠商會有很大機會獲得市場，也沒有所謂的贏家擁有超高市占率的情況產生。zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) This study is the use of agent-based model combined with genetic programming to explore the impact of the price dynamics for the market share in the modular economy. Nowadays, the majority of enterprises use market share as the key performance indicators in the market, if the enterprise has a high market share, it can be determined to survive in this industry. The previous literature shows that manufacturers of high prices on the market under the modular economy will be better than the low-price manufacturers, depending on the important factors for quality. Expensive products are usually higher quality, easily favorite by consumers. My study is to investigate whether consumers consider in this system are based on the level of quality to decide to buy the product or not, and whether there will be price competitive situation, as well as the outlook presented by the market price dynamics system.
      In this paper, we design 39 markup rate’s parameter set and making price dynamic matrix diagram in accordance with the decisions of two manufacturers. Trying to analyze these known parameter set and the parameter set of the market share predicted by the linear interpolation. The simulation of the study found that in the modular economy price competition does not necessarily make the market share tends to a equilibrium point, or it may also tend to be a equilibrium path. But not necessarily high-priced manufacturers get to the market, there is no so-called winners with higher market share.		en_US
dc.description.tableofcontents 謝 辭 I
     摘 要 II
     Abstract III
     表 目 錄 VI
     圖 目 錄 VII
     第一章 前言....................1
     第二章 文獻回顧.................4
     第一節 創新與代理人基模型.........4
     第二節 價格競爭相關文獻..........11
     第三章 模型介紹.................18
     第一節 模型架構簡介..............18
     3.1.1 創新活動..................18
     3.1.2 消費者與產品...............22
     3.1.3 廠商與投資者互動關係.........23
     3.1.4 市場之動態體系..............24
     第二節 模擬設計與規劃.............28
     3.2.1 模擬參數設計Ⅰ...............29
     3.2.2 模擬參數設計Ⅱ...............30
     第四章 模擬結果分析...............33
     第一節 總體觀點..................33
     第二節 個體角度..................50
     第五章 結論.....................52
     參考資料..........................54
     附錄 各系列參數市占率動態圖...........58
     附錄A 模擬參數設計Ⅰ.................58
     附錄B 模擬參數設計Ⅱ................66		zh_TW
dc.language.iso en_US-
dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0099258029en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 模組化經濟zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 代理人基模型zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 價格競爭zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 市占率zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Modular economyen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Agent-Based modelen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Pricing competitionen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Market shareen_US
dc.title (題名) 模組化經濟下雙占產業之演化與競爭: 基於代理人基模型模擬之分析zh_TW
dc.title (題名) Pricing competition in the duopolistic market: analysis based on agent-based simulationen_US
dc.type (資料類型) thesisen
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) (一)中文部分
     約瑟夫 • 熊彼得著, 何畏、易家詳合譯, 2005, 經濟發展概論, 左岸文化.
     
     池秉聰, 2007, "經濟學中的創新:代理人基計算建模", 國立政治大學經濟學系研究所博士論文。
     
     (二)英文部分
     Ahrweiler, Petra, Andreas Pyka and Nigel Gilbert, 2011, "A New Model for University-industry Links in Knowledge-based Economies", Journal of Product Innovation Management 28 (2), 218-235.
     
     Baye, M., J. Morgan and P. Scholten, 2006, "Information, Search, and Price Dispersion", Chapter 6 in Handbook on Economics and Information, T. Hendershott edt., Elsevier, Amsterdam 2006.
     
     Cabral, L., 2007, "Dynamic Price Competition with Network Effects", Working Paper, New York University and CEPR.
     
     Chan, C.C. Henry, Chi Bin Cheng and Wen Chen Hsien, 2011, "Pricing and Promotion Strategies of an Online Shop Based on Customer Segmentation and Multiple Objective Decision Making", Expert Systems with Applications 38, 14585-14591.
     
     Chang, M.H., 2009, "Industry Dynamics with Knowledge-based Competition: A Computational Study of Entry and Exit Patterns", Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination 4, 73–114.
     
     Chang, Ray M., Wonseok Oh and Alain Pinsonneault, 2010, "A Network Perspective of Digital Competition in Online Advertising Industries: A Simulation-Based Approach", Information Systems Research 21(3), 571–593.
     
     Chen, Shu Heng and Bin Tzong Chie, 2007, "Modularity, Product Innovation, and Consumer Satisfaction: An Agent-based Approach", in Intelligent Data Engineering and Automated Learning, Lecture Notes in Computer Science, edited by H. Yin, P. Tino, E. Corchado, W. Byrne and X. Yao. Berlin: Springer, 1053–1062.
     
     Chen, S.H. and C.C. Ni, 1999, "Using Genetic Algorithms to Simulate the Evolution of an Oligopoly Game", Second Asia-Pacific Conference on Simulation Evolution and Learning, SEAL98, LNCS 1585, 293-300.
     
     Chie, Bin Tzong and Shu Heng Chen, 2010, "Social Interactions and Innovation: Simulation Based on an Agent-based Modular Economy", in Marco LiCalzi, Lucia Milone and Paolo Pellizzari (eds.), Progress in Artificial Economics: Computational and Agent-Based Models, Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems, Vol. 645, Springer, 127-138.
     
     Chie, Bin Tzong and Shu Heng Chen, 2011, "Non-Price Competition in an Agent-Based Modular Economy", 37th Eastern Economic Association Annual Conference, New York City, New York, Feb 25-27.
     
     Chung, K.Y., 2000, "Hotel Room Pricing Strategy for Market Share in Oligopolistic Competition – Eight-year Longitudinal Study of Super Deluxe Hotels in Seoul", Tourism Management 21, 135-145.
     
     Clemenz, Gerhard and Klaus Gugler, 2006, "Locational Choice and Price Competition: Some Empirical Results for the Austrian Gasoline Market", Empirical Economics 31(2), 291–312.
     
     Currie, C.S.M., R.C.H. Cheng and H.K. Smith, 2008, "Dynamic Pricing of Airline Tickets with Competition", Journal of the Operational Research Society 59, 1026-1037.
     
     Dawid, H. and M. Reimann, 2011, "Diversification: A Road to Inefficiency in Product Innovations?", The Journal of Evolutionary Economics 21(2), 191–229.
     
     Fleckinger, P. and T. Lafay, 2010, "Product Flexibility and Price Competition in Hotelling`s Duopoly", Mathematical Social Sciences 60(1), 61-68.
     
     Garcia, R., 2005, "Uses of Agent-based Modeling in Innovation/new Product Development Research", The Journal of Product Innovation Management 22 (1), 380-398.
     
     Gilbert, N., P. Ahrweiler and A. Pyka, 2007, "Learning in Innovation Networks: Some Simulation Experiments", Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and Its Applications 378 (1), 100–109.
     
     Goettler, R. and B. Gordon, 2011, "Does AMD Spur Intel to Innovate More?", manuscript, Journal of Political Economy 119(6), 1141-1200.
     
     Griva, K. and N. Vettas, 2005, "Price Competition in a Differentiated Products Duopoly under Network Effects", CEPR Discussion Paper.
     
     Hoppe, H. and U. Lehmann-Grube, 2008, "Price Competition in Markets with Customer Testing: The Captive Customer Effect", Economic Theory 35, 497–521.
     
     Ivaldi, M. and C. Vibes, 2008, "Price Competition in the Intercity Passenger Transport Market: A Simulation Model", Journal of Transport Economics and Policy 42(2), 225-262.
     
     Iwu, C.G., 2010, "Impact of Product Development and Innovation on Market Share", African Journal of Business Management 4(13), 2659-2667.
     
     Iyer, G. and P.B. Seetharaman, 2008, "Too Close to be Similar: Product and Price Competition in Retail Gasoline Markets", Quant. Marketing Economic 6, 205-234.
     
     Lenz-Cesar, Fla’vio and Heshmati Almas, 2012, "An Econometric Approach to Identify Determinants of Cooperation for Innovation among Firms", Applied Economics Letters 19, 227–235.
     
     Khorana, Ajay and Henri Servaes, 2012, "What Drives Market Share in the Mutual Fund Industry? ", Review of Finance 16, 81-113.
     
     Kim, S., K. Lee, J.K. Cho and C.O. Kim, 2011, "Agent-Based Diffusion Model for an Automobile Market with Fuzzy TOPSIS-based Product Adoption Process", Expert Systems with Applications 38(6), 7270–7276.
     
     Matsubayashi, N., 2007, "Price and Quality Competition: The Effect of Differentiation and Vertical Integration", European Journal of Operational Research 180, 907-921.
     
     Mukherjee, A., 2005, "Price and Quantity Competition under Free Entry", Research in Economics 59, 335-344.
     
     Parlar, M. and Z.K. Weng, 2006, "Coordinating Pricing and Production Decisions in the Presence of Price Competition", European Journal of Operational Research 170, 211–227.
     
     Said, L.B., T. Bouron and A. Drogoul, 2002, "Agent-Based Interaction Analysis of Consumer Behavior", In Proceedings of the first international joint conference on Autonomous agents and multiagent systems, 184–190, ACM Press.
     
     Tay, N.S.P. and R.F. Lusch., 2005, "A Preliminary Test of Hunt’s General Theory of Competition: Using Artificial Adaptive Agents to Study Complex and Ill-Defined Environments", Journal of Business Research 58, 1155-1168.
     
     Van Eck, P.S., W. Jager, and P.S.H. Leeflang, 2011, "Opinion Leaders’ Role in Innovation Diffusion: A Simulation Study", The Journal of Product Innovation Management 28 (2), 187-203.
     
     Wersching, Klaus, 2010, "Schumpeterian Competition, Technological Regimes and Learning Through Knowledge Spillover", Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization 75, 482-493.
     
     Wu, D.D., X. Kefan, L. Hua, Z. Shi and D.L. Olson, 2010, "Modeling Technological Innovation Risks of an Entrepreneurial Team Using System Dynamics: An agent-based perspective", Technological Forecasting and Social Change 77(6), 857-869.
     
     Yue, X., S.K. Mukhopadhyay and X. Zhu, 2006, "A Bertrand Model of Pricing of Complementary Goods under Information Asymmetry", Journal of Business Research 59, 1182-1192.
     
     Zhang, T. and W. Nuttall, 2011, "Evaluating Government’s Policies on Promoting Smart Metering in Retail Electricity Markets via Agent Based Simulation", Journal of Product Innovation Management 28(2), 169-186.
     
     Zhang, L., D.M. Levinson and S. Zhu, 2008, "Agent-Based Model of Price Competition, Capacity Choice, and Product Differentiation on Congested Networks", Journal of Transport Economics and Policy 42(3), 435–461.
     
     Zhang, Tong and B. Wade Brorsen, 2011, "Oligopoly Firms with Quantity-price Strategic Decisions", The Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination 6, 157-170.		zh_TW