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題名 自殺的經濟分析
Economic studies on suicide
作者 黃勢璋
Huang, Shin Chang
貢獻者 陳國樑
Chen, Joe
黃勢璋
Huang, Shin Chang
關鍵詞 自殺
社會風俗
自殺的位移性
自殺的持續性
多重均衡
自殺性別差異
日期 2011
上傳時間 30-Oct-2012 14:05:03 (UTC+8)
摘要 自殺議題已成為各國政府非常重視且亟欲解決的問題之一。觀察日本近20年的自殺率的變化，發現兩種在文獻上未曾被討論的特殊現象。第一，日本自殺率在1998年出現幅度高達34.21%的大幅跳躍增加，本文將此跳躍現象稱為自殺的位移性 (displacement)。第二，自殺率在1998年出現大幅跳躍上升之後，縱使後來經濟情勢好轉，自殺率卻未曾再明顯回跌至1997年以前的較低自殺率，本文將此現象稱為自殺的持續性 (persistence)。不論是位移或持續性效果，目前的經濟相關理論的文獻，在社會經濟變數沒有相對應巨幅變化的情況下，並無法針對上述自殺率的特殊現象提出適當解釋。本文第三章將針對自殺的位移與持續性做深入討論。

另外，儘管世界各國的自殺率高低及趨勢存在差異，但從不同性別的自殺率角度切入，卻存在相當一致的現象，就是男性自殺率都明顯高於女性自殺率。既有的經濟相關理論文獻，就自殺率在性別差異的情況，並無相關理論模型解釋此一現象。本文第四章將針對男女性別在自殺率的差異現象做詳細分析。

第三章根據OECD與臺灣共34個國家的自殺率資料，首先根據實證檢定方法證實位移與持續性等特殊現象，並非僅存在於日本而已，有9個國家的自殺率具有位移與持續性現象。在理論模型分析方面，本文提出自殺的社會風俗模型，用來說明自殺率的位移與持續性現象。模型結果發現，自殺率在理論上可能存在多重均衡解。在社會自殺率很低的情形下，以自殺作為解決問題所必須承受的社會壓力與心理成本越大，此時的個人自殺機率與社會自殺率將維持在一個相對“好”的低自殺率均衡水準。相反地，若一般社會、經濟情況發生惡化，許多人透過自殺尋求解脫，使得社會自殺率出現明顯增加，此時以自殺解決問題逐漸成為一種被默許的社會氛圍時，欲尋求自殺必須承受的社會壓力與心理成本會大大降低。自殺率甚至會出現以跳躍上升的方式，迅速移往一個相對“壞”的高自殺率均衡水準。此時，如果社會經濟變數沒有出現巨幅改善，均衡自殺率將無法回到原先相對“好”的低水準而持續維持在相對“壞”的高水準，如同日本自殺率在1989至2009年間所呈現的位移及持續性現象。

第四章則透過經濟理論模型提出，預期壽命、天生基因以及風險趨避程度，是導致各國自殺率具有性別差異的主要因素。因為，預期壽命越高所帶來個人的預期終生效用現值越大，自殺行為或自殺率越低；使得各國女性預期壽命皆大於男性的情況下，得到男性自殺率高於女性之結果。心理醫學、生物學發現的性別天生基因不同，導致自殺率產生明顯差異的說法，也透過經濟理論模型進一步呈現。而工作選擇的風險趨避程度越低所伴隨工作所得變異性越大，導致個人落入貧窮的機會大增，自殺行為或自殺率提高；使得文獻發現女性風險趨避程度高於男性的結論，得到現實生活中男性自殺率高於女性的結果。在實證分析方面，根據從OECD成員國與臺灣共34個選樣國家資料，透過結合橫斷面與時間序列的統計資料，檢驗預期壽命與自殺率之間的關係是否與理論模型的結果相一致。結果發現，不論在哪一種Panel Data模型下，預期壽命與自殺率之間確實呈現顯著的負向關係，表示整體國家的預期壽命增加將使得社會自殺率降低。
參考文獻 中文部分

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聯合報 (2010) 「稚女救母，自殺防治體系禁得起檢驗？」，06月07日，社論。
劉謙慧 (2011) 「富士康第17跳！　員工不明原因墜樓」，今日新聞網，07月19日。
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其他：
WHO (2009.05) Suicide prevention, http://www.who.int/mental_health/ prevention/suicide/suicideprevent/en/
WHO (2009.12) Prevention of suicidal behaviors: a task for all, http://www.who.intmental_health/prevention/suicide/background/en/index.html
描述 博士
國立政治大學
財政研究所
96255504
100
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0096255504
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 陳國樑zh_TW
dc.contributor.advisor Chen, Joeen_US
dc.contributor.author (Authors) 黃勢璋zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) Huang, Shin Changen_US
dc.creator (作者) 黃勢璋zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) Huang, Shin Changen_US
dc.date (日期) 2011en_US
dc.date.accessioned 30-Oct-2012 14:05:03 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 30-Oct-2012 14:05:03 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 30-Oct-2012 14:05:03 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0096255504en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/54885-
dc.description (描述) 博士zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 財政研究所zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 96255504zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 100zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) 自殺議題已成為各國政府非常重視且亟欲解決的問題之一。觀察日本近20年的自殺率的變化，發現兩種在文獻上未曾被討論的特殊現象。第一，日本自殺率在1998年出現幅度高達34.21%的大幅跳躍增加，本文將此跳躍現象稱為自殺的位移性 (displacement)。第二，自殺率在1998年出現大幅跳躍上升之後，縱使後來經濟情勢好轉，自殺率卻未曾再明顯回跌至1997年以前的較低自殺率，本文將此現象稱為自殺的持續性 (persistence)。不論是位移或持續性效果，目前的經濟相關理論的文獻，在社會經濟變數沒有相對應巨幅變化的情況下，並無法針對上述自殺率的特殊現象提出適當解釋。本文第三章將針對自殺的位移與持續性做深入討論。

另外，儘管世界各國的自殺率高低及趨勢存在差異，但從不同性別的自殺率角度切入，卻存在相當一致的現象，就是男性自殺率都明顯高於女性自殺率。既有的經濟相關理論文獻，就自殺率在性別差異的情況，並無相關理論模型解釋此一現象。本文第四章將針對男女性別在自殺率的差異現象做詳細分析。

第三章根據OECD與臺灣共34個國家的自殺率資料，首先根據實證檢定方法證實位移與持續性等特殊現象，並非僅存在於日本而已，有9個國家的自殺率具有位移與持續性現象。在理論模型分析方面，本文提出自殺的社會風俗模型，用來說明自殺率的位移與持續性現象。模型結果發現，自殺率在理論上可能存在多重均衡解。在社會自殺率很低的情形下，以自殺作為解決問題所必須承受的社會壓力與心理成本越大，此時的個人自殺機率與社會自殺率將維持在一個相對“好”的低自殺率均衡水準。相反地，若一般社會、經濟情況發生惡化，許多人透過自殺尋求解脫，使得社會自殺率出現明顯增加，此時以自殺解決問題逐漸成為一種被默許的社會氛圍時，欲尋求自殺必須承受的社會壓力與心理成本會大大降低。自殺率甚至會出現以跳躍上升的方式，迅速移往一個相對“壞”的高自殺率均衡水準。此時，如果社會經濟變數沒有出現巨幅改善，均衡自殺率將無法回到原先相對“好”的低水準而持續維持在相對“壞”的高水準，如同日本自殺率在1989至2009年間所呈現的位移及持續性現象。

第四章則透過經濟理論模型提出，預期壽命、天生基因以及風險趨避程度，是導致各國自殺率具有性別差異的主要因素。因為，預期壽命越高所帶來個人的預期終生效用現值越大，自殺行為或自殺率越低；使得各國女性預期壽命皆大於男性的情況下，得到男性自殺率高於女性之結果。心理醫學、生物學發現的性別天生基因不同，導致自殺率產生明顯差異的說法，也透過經濟理論模型進一步呈現。而工作選擇的風險趨避程度越低所伴隨工作所得變異性越大，導致個人落入貧窮的機會大增，自殺行為或自殺率提高；使得文獻發現女性風險趨避程度高於男性的結論，得到現實生活中男性自殺率高於女性的結果。在實證分析方面，根據從OECD成員國與臺灣共34個選樣國家資料，透過結合橫斷面與時間序列的統計資料，檢驗預期壽命與自殺率之間的關係是否與理論模型的結果相一致。結果發現，不論在哪一種Panel Data模型下，預期壽命與自殺率之間確實呈現顯著的負向關係，表示整體國家的預期壽命增加將使得社會自殺率降低。		zh_TW
dc.description.tableofcontents 目 錄 v
表 目 viii
圖 目 ix

第一章 緒論 1
1.1 前言 1
1.2 從經濟學觀點看自殺議題 3
1.3 研究目的 6
1.3.1 自殺的社會風俗模型 7
1.3.2 自殺的性別差異 9
1.4 本文架構 16

第二章 文獻回顧 17
2.1 自殺的經濟理論文獻 17
2.1.1 預期效用學派 17
2.1.2 實質選擇權學派 18
2.2 自殺的實證分析文獻 20
2.3 社會風俗理論模型 23

第三章 自殺的社會風俗模型 26
3.1 自殺的位移與持續性現象 26
3.1.1 資料來源 26
3.1.2 檢定方法：位移效果 26
3.1.3 檢定方法：持續性效果 28
3.1.4 敘述統計量 29
3.1.5 檢定結果：位移效果 31
3.1.6 檢定結果：持續性效果 34
3.2 理論模型 38
3.2.1 自殺的社會風俗模型 38
3.2.2 均衡與動態調整 40
3.3 圖解說明 42
3.3.1 原始情況 42
3.3.2 均衡自殺率之分析：以老化程度為例 45
3.3.3 均衡自殺率之分析：以恆常所得為例 48
3.3.4 自殺對策對均衡自殺率之影響 51
3.4 理論模型之應用：性別年齡層與自殺率—以日本為例 53
3.4.1 位移與持續性效果之檢定 53
3.4.2 男性自殺率之圖解狀況 54
3.4.3 女性自殺率之圖解狀況 57
3.5 小結 58

第四章 自殺的性別差異 60
4.1 理論模型 60
4.1.1 預期壽命對自殺率之影響 60
4.1.2 天生基因對自殺率之影響 62
4.1.3 風險趨避程度對自殺率之影響 63
4.2 資料與迴歸模型 66
4.2.1 資料來源 66
4.2.2 敘述統計 66
4.2.3 追蹤資料迴歸模型 68
4.2.4 模型檢測方法 69
4.2.5 自殺率與預期壽命之迴歸分析 70
4.2.6 自殺率性別差異與預期壽命之迴歸分析 73
4.3 小結 75

第五章 結論 77

參考文獻 80
附錄1：具位移效果之各國自殺率趨勢與結構轉變點 90
附錄2：各國歷年不同性別之自殺率趨勢 92		zh_TW
dc.language.iso en_US-
dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0096255504en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 自殺zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 社會風俗zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 自殺的位移性zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 自殺的持續性zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 多重均衡zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 自殺性別差異zh_TW
dc.title (題名) 自殺的經濟分析zh_TW
dc.title (題名) Economic studies on suicideen_US
dc.type (資料類型) thesisen
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 中文部分

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其他：
WHO (2009.05) Suicide prevention, http://www.who.int/mental_health/ prevention/suicide/suicideprevent/en/
WHO (2009.12) Prevention of suicidal behaviors: a task for all, http://www.who.intmental_health/prevention/suicide/background/en/index.html		zh_TW