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題名 以財務遊戲驗證投資者過度自信
Verifying overconfidence of investers through stock investment game
作者 李侃奇
Lee, Kan Chi
貢獻者 姜堯民
Chiang, Yao Ming
李侃奇
Lee, Kan Chi
關鍵詞 行為財務學
過度自信
多角化程度
資產配置
日期 2012
上傳時間 1-Feb-2013 16:50:22 (UTC+8)
摘要 許多研究發現投資人在面對不同情況時，會表現出過度自信之現象，其中最甚者為過度自信現象(overconfidence)，亦有研究探討如何解決過度自信，使得投資人之資產配置更加效率。結果發現雖然無利益衝突之財務建議，的確能夠解決資產配置缺乏效率的問題，然而，採納者少之又少，而採納建議者仍會依照自己想法配置資產，使得財務建議效果下降，故本研究便發想，既然投資人普遍已有成見，何不從最根本的學校教育做起，使情況有所改善。
本研究利用實驗之方式，以政大學生作為研究對象，將樣本分為未修過財管大學生、修過財管大學生以及財管所學生三個子族群，首先以問卷調查其客觀及主觀特性，再進行財務投資遊戲以得出實驗結果，並加以迴歸分析。
實證結果發現，樣本整體呈現男性、年齡越小者容易發生過度自信現象，由於本樣本之年齡可代表財務教育程度之高低，可推論教育程度較高者可降低過度自信；在子族群中，過度自信之情形尤以修過財管之大學生為嚴重，在未修過財管之大學生及財管所研究生中則不顯著，有”半瓶水響叮噹”之可能，而過度自信現象在財管所研究生族群中不顯著，代表財務教育程度的確能夠有效消除過度自信之現象；風險分散程度方面，樣本整體呈現男性、風險態度較高者之多角化程度較低。研究過程中發現，財務教育程度高之族群，較為了解自己之風險態度，會依照其風險承受度來作資產配置，且未修過財管大學生及修過財管大學生中，男性多角化程度顯著較低；在財管所碩士班學生之樣本，此現象則不顯著。若將多角化程度較低，視為過度自信之指標，亦代表財管所碩士班男性較不容易發生過度自信現象。由以上結果作出財務教育程度越高，的確能夠消除行為偏誤之結論，且財務教育程度越高者，更能夠了解自身之風險態度，並作出相應之資產配置。
參考文獻 Ang, A. and Maddaloni, A., 2005, Do demographic changes affect risk premiums? Evidence
from international data, Journal of Business 78(1), 341–379.
Barber, B. M., and T. Odean, 2000, Trading Is Hazardous to Your Wealth: The
Common Stock Investment Performance of Individual Investors, Journal of Finance 55(2), 773–806.
Barber, B. M., and T. Odean, 2001, Boys Will be Boys: Gender, Overconfidence, and
Common Stock Investment, The Quarterly Journal of Economics 116(1), 261-288.
Barber, Lee, Liu and Odean, 2009. Just How Much Do Individual Investors Lose by
Trading? Review of Financial Studies 22(2), 609-632.
Beyer, S., 1990, Gender Differences in the Accuracy of Self-Evaluations of Performance,
Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 59(5), 960–970.
Daniel, D. and G. Huberman, 2005, Talk and Action: What Individual Investors Say and
What They Do, Review of Finance 9(4), 437-481.
Deaux, K., and E. Farris, 1977, Attributing Causes for One’s Own Performance:
The Effects of Sex, Norms, and Outcome, Journal of Research in Personality 11(1), 59–72.
Fischhoff, B., Paul, S., and S. Lichtenstein, 1977, Knowing with Certainty:
The Appropriateness of Extreme Confidence, Journal of Experimental Psychology 3(4), 552–564.
Gervais, S., and T. Odean, Learning to Be Overconfident, 1998, Wharton School,
University of Pennsylvania, Working Paper.
Grinblatt, M. and Keloharju, M., 2001, What makes investor trade?, Journal of Finance
56(2), 589–616.
Griffin, D., and A. Tversky, 1992, The Weighing of Evidence and the Determinants of
Confidence, Cognitive Psychology 24(3), 411–435.
Grossman, S. J., and J. E. Stiglitz, 1980, On the Impossibility of Informationally
Efficient Markets, American Economic Review 70(3), 393–408.
Goyal, A., 2004, Demographics, stock market flows, and stock returns, Journal of Financial
and Qualitative Analysis 39(1), 115–142.
Kapteyn, A. and Teppa, F., 2002, Subjective measures of risk aversion and portfolio
choice. Rand Working Paper.
Kroll, Y., Levy, H. and Rapoport, A. ,1988, Experimental tests of the separation
theorem and the capital asset pricing model, American Economic Review 78(3),
500-519.
Lei F. and M. S. Seasholes, 2005, Do Investor Sophistication and Trading Experience
,Eliminate Behavioral Biases in Financial Markets?, Review of Finance 9(3), 305–351.
Lichtenstein, S., Fischhoff, B., and Lawrence P., 1982, Calibration of
Probabilities:Heuristics and Biases, Daniel Kahneman, Paul Slovic, and Amos Tversky, eds. (Cambridge and New York: Cambridge University Press).
Lundeberg, M. A., Paul, W. F., and Judith, P., 1994, Highly Confident but Wrong:
Gender Differences and Similarities in Confidence Judgments, Journal
of Educational Psychology 86(1) , 114–121.
Meehan, A. M., and Willis F. O., 1986, Gender Differences in Expectancies for
Success and Performance on Piagetian Spatial Tasks, Merrill-Palmer Quarterly 32(4), 427–441.
Odean, T., 1998, Volume, Volatility, Price, and Profit When All Traders Are above
Average, Journal of Finance 53(6), 1887–1934.
Shapira, Z. and Venezia, I., 2001, Patterns of behavior of professionally managed and
Independent investors, Journal of Banking and Finance 25(8), 1573–1587.
Siebenmorgen, N. and Weber, M. ,2001, A Behavioral Model for Asset Allocation.
University of Mannheim, Working Paper.
Uptal, B., Andreas H., Simon K., Benjamin L., and Steffen M., 2012, Is Unbiased Financial
Advice To Retail Investors Sufficient? Answers from a Large Field Study, The Review of Financial Studies 25(4), 975-1032.
Yates, J. Frank, Judgment and Decision Making, 1990 (Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice Hall).
描述 碩士
國立政治大學
財務管理研究所
99357032
101
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0993570322
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 姜堯民zh_TW
dc.contributor.advisor Chiang, Yao Mingen_US
dc.contributor.author (Authors) 李侃奇zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) Lee, Kan Chien_US
dc.creator (作者) 李侃奇zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) Lee, Kan Chien_US
dc.date (日期) 2012en_US
dc.date.accessioned 1-Feb-2013 16:50:22 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 1-Feb-2013 16:50:22 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 1-Feb-2013 16:50:22 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0993570322en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/56830-
dc.description (描述) 碩士zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 財務管理研究所zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 99357032zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 101zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) 許多研究發現投資人在面對不同情況時，會表現出過度自信之現象，其中最甚者為過度自信現象(overconfidence)，亦有研究探討如何解決過度自信，使得投資人之資產配置更加效率。結果發現雖然無利益衝突之財務建議，的確能夠解決資產配置缺乏效率的問題，然而，採納者少之又少，而採納建議者仍會依照自己想法配置資產，使得財務建議效果下降，故本研究便發想，既然投資人普遍已有成見，何不從最根本的學校教育做起，使情況有所改善。
本研究利用實驗之方式，以政大學生作為研究對象，將樣本分為未修過財管大學生、修過財管大學生以及財管所學生三個子族群，首先以問卷調查其客觀及主觀特性，再進行財務投資遊戲以得出實驗結果，並加以迴歸分析。
實證結果發現，樣本整體呈現男性、年齡越小者容易發生過度自信現象，由於本樣本之年齡可代表財務教育程度之高低，可推論教育程度較高者可降低過度自信；在子族群中，過度自信之情形尤以修過財管之大學生為嚴重，在未修過財管之大學生及財管所研究生中則不顯著，有”半瓶水響叮噹”之可能，而過度自信現象在財管所研究生族群中不顯著，代表財務教育程度的確能夠有效消除過度自信之現象；風險分散程度方面，樣本整體呈現男性、風險態度較高者之多角化程度較低。研究過程中發現，財務教育程度高之族群，較為了解自己之風險態度，會依照其風險承受度來作資產配置，且未修過財管大學生及修過財管大學生中，男性多角化程度顯著較低；在財管所碩士班學生之樣本，此現象則不顯著。若將多角化程度較低，視為過度自信之指標，亦代表財管所碩士班男性較不容易發生過度自信現象。由以上結果作出財務教育程度越高，的確能夠消除行為偏誤之結論，且財務教育程度越高者，更能夠了解自身之風險態度，並作出相應之資產配置。		zh_TW
dc.description.tableofcontents 壹、緒論 1
第一節 研究動機 1
第二節 研究目的 1
第三節 研究方法及流程 1
第四節 小結 2
貳、文獻探討 3
第一節 行為偏誤現象 3
第二節 過度自信與投資人特性之關聯 5
第三節 財務建議 7
参、研究方法 10
第一節 研究模型之建構 10
第二節 資料來源及樣本敘述 13
一、樣本採集過程 13
二、樣本敘述 15
肆、實證結果分析 16
第一節 敘述性統計 16
第二節 迴歸分析 19
一、投資績效 19
二、過度自信現象 22
伍、研究結論及研究限制、建議 27
第一節 研究結論 27
第二節 研究限制 29
第三節 研究建議 30
附錄 31
附件A 調查用問卷 31
附件B 財務遊戲說明 32
附件C 個股列表 33
附件D 總經環境 36
參考文獻 37		zh_TW
dc.language.iso en_US-
dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0993570322en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 行為財務學zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 過度自信zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 多角化程度zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 資產配置zh_TW
dc.title (題名) 以財務遊戲驗證投資者過度自信zh_TW
dc.title (題名) Verifying overconfidence of investers through stock investment gameen_US
dc.type (資料類型) thesisen
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Ang, A. and Maddaloni, A., 2005, Do demographic changes affect risk premiums? Evidence
from international data, Journal of Business 78(1), 341–379.
Barber, B. M., and T. Odean, 2000, Trading Is Hazardous to Your Wealth: The
Common Stock Investment Performance of Individual Investors, Journal of Finance 55(2), 773–806.
Barber, B. M., and T. Odean, 2001, Boys Will be Boys: Gender, Overconfidence, and
Common Stock Investment, The Quarterly Journal of Economics 116(1), 261-288.
Barber, Lee, Liu and Odean, 2009. Just How Much Do Individual Investors Lose by
Trading? Review of Financial Studies 22(2), 609-632.
Beyer, S., 1990, Gender Differences in the Accuracy of Self-Evaluations of Performance,
Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 59(5), 960–970.
Daniel, D. and G. Huberman, 2005, Talk and Action: What Individual Investors Say and
What They Do, Review of Finance 9(4), 437-481.
Deaux, K., and E. Farris, 1977, Attributing Causes for One’s Own Performance:
The Effects of Sex, Norms, and Outcome, Journal of Research in Personality 11(1), 59–72.
Fischhoff, B., Paul, S., and S. Lichtenstein, 1977, Knowing with Certainty:
The Appropriateness of Extreme Confidence, Journal of Experimental Psychology 3(4), 552–564.
Gervais, S., and T. Odean, Learning to Be Overconfident, 1998, Wharton School,
University of Pennsylvania, Working Paper.
Grinblatt, M. and Keloharju, M., 2001, What makes investor trade?, Journal of Finance
56(2), 589–616.
Griffin, D., and A. Tversky, 1992, The Weighing of Evidence and the Determinants of
Confidence, Cognitive Psychology 24(3), 411–435.
Grossman, S. J., and J. E. Stiglitz, 1980, On the Impossibility of Informationally
Efficient Markets, American Economic Review 70(3), 393–408.
Goyal, A., 2004, Demographics, stock market flows, and stock returns, Journal of Financial
and Qualitative Analysis 39(1), 115–142.
Kapteyn, A. and Teppa, F., 2002, Subjective measures of risk aversion and portfolio
choice. Rand Working Paper.
Kroll, Y., Levy, H. and Rapoport, A. ,1988, Experimental tests of the separation
theorem and the capital asset pricing model, American Economic Review 78(3),
500-519.
Lei F. and M. S. Seasholes, 2005, Do Investor Sophistication and Trading Experience
,Eliminate Behavioral Biases in Financial Markets?, Review of Finance 9(3), 305–351.
Lichtenstein, S., Fischhoff, B., and Lawrence P., 1982, Calibration of
Probabilities:Heuristics and Biases, Daniel Kahneman, Paul Slovic, and Amos Tversky, eds. (Cambridge and New York: Cambridge University Press).
Lundeberg, M. A., Paul, W. F., and Judith, P., 1994, Highly Confident but Wrong:
Gender Differences and Similarities in Confidence Judgments, Journal
of Educational Psychology 86(1) , 114–121.
Meehan, A. M., and Willis F. O., 1986, Gender Differences in Expectancies for
Success and Performance on Piagetian Spatial Tasks, Merrill-Palmer Quarterly 32(4), 427–441.
Odean, T., 1998, Volume, Volatility, Price, and Profit When All Traders Are above
Average, Journal of Finance 53(6), 1887–1934.
Shapira, Z. and Venezia, I., 2001, Patterns of behavior of professionally managed and
Independent investors, Journal of Banking and Finance 25(8), 1573–1587.
Siebenmorgen, N. and Weber, M. ,2001, A Behavioral Model for Asset Allocation.
University of Mannheim, Working Paper.
Uptal, B., Andreas H., Simon K., Benjamin L., and Steffen M., 2012, Is Unbiased Financial
Advice To Retail Investors Sufficient? Answers from a Large Field Study, The Review of Financial Studies 25(4), 975-1032.
Yates, J. Frank, Judgment and Decision Making, 1990 (Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice Hall).		zh_TW