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題名 波蘭加入歐盟對其外貿影響之研究
The Impact on Poland`s Foreign Trade for Joining EU
作者 趙翊如
貢獻者 魏艾
趙翊如
關鍵詞 波蘭
歐盟
對外貿易
引力模型
日期 2012
上傳時間 4-Feb-2013 09:42:13 (UTC+8)
摘要 波蘭於2004年正式加入歐盟，加入歐盟至今已有八年，並於2011年成為歐盟輪值主席國。波蘭加入歐盟是否對其外貿具影響力?本論文透過波蘭參與歐盟的過程、加入歐盟後的經濟面向，以及引力模型進行實證分析。\r\n\r\n 從引力模型實證分析結果發現：一、歐盟雖然對波蘭進、出口貿易都具有正相關，但相較於進口方面，對波蘭出口影響程度卻相當微小。可能因素為波蘭加入歐盟後，在進口歐盟地區商品方面，受惠於歐盟規範下的貿易自由化，進口商品更為多元；而波蘭自1993年至2010年以來，出口貿易對象高達九成以上都屬歐洲地區，當然包含歐盟國家，因此無法確切指出波蘭出口額逐年增長的趨勢，完全是受到加入歐盟的影響。不過，整體而言，加入歐盟對波蘭外貿還是具有相當正面的效益。二、貿易國家的國民生產毛額變數，對波蘭外貿具有正面效益，換言之，貿易國家的經濟水準逐漸提升後，使得人民可支配所得增加，進而增加對波蘭商品的購買次數。三、貿易國家的人口變數，對波蘭外貿具有正面效益，表示當貿易國家的人口增加，對波蘭商品的需求量增加，使得兩國貿易量也隨之增加。四、兩國首都距離變數，對波蘭外貿具有負面效益：當兩國首都距離較近時，運輸成本也較低，因此兩國貿易次數頻繁；而當兩國首都距離較遠時，運輸成本提高，使得兩國貿易量減少。
參考文獻 一、中文\r\n(一)書籍\r\n洪茂雄，歐盟的深化與廣化：中東歐國家加入歐盟的意義及其影響(臺北：前衛\r\n 出版社，2003年)。\r\n郭秋慶，歐洲聯盟概論(臺北：五南出版社，1999年)。\r\n張亞中，歐洲統合：政府間主義與超國家主義的互動(臺北：揚智出版社，1998\r\n 年)。\r\n\r\n(二)期刊論文\r\n楊三億，「歐盟東擴及其對波蘭衝擊：政治經濟面向之分析」，全球政治評論，第\r\n 11期(2005)，頁79~110。\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n二、英文\r\n(一) 書籍\r\nAlan Mayhew, Recreating Europe—The European Union`s Policy towards Central \r\n and Eastern Europe, (England: Cambridge University Press, 1998).\r\nDennis Swann, European Economic Integration: the Common Market, European \r\n Union and beyond, (Cheltenham: Edward Elgar Pub, 1996).\r\nMatthias Pechstein, Philipp Kubicki, “The Legal Framework of Accession to the \r\n European Union,” (Warsaw, 2002). \r\nPhilipp Schröder, “Eastern Enlargement: The New Challenge,” (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2001).\r\n \r\n(二)期刊\r\nAnderson, J. E., “A Theoretical Foundation for the Gravity Equation,” American \r\n Economic Review, Vol.69, No.1 (1979), pp.106~116.\r\nBergstrand, J. H., “The Gravity Equation in International Trade: Some\r\n Microeconomic Foundations and Empirical Evidence,” Review of Economics and\r\n Statistics, Vol.67, No.3(1985), pp. 474~481.\r\nBergstrand, J. H., “The Generalized Gravity Equation Monopolistic Competition, and\r\n the Factor-proportions Theory in International Trade,” Review of Economics and\r\n Statistics, Vol.71, No.1 (1989), pp.143~153.\r\nBlaszczuk Marzenna, Kaliszuk Ewa, “Poland`s Accession to the EU and its Effects on\r\n Trade with Russia and Ukraine,” Indeunis Papers, No. 516721(2006), pp.1~26.\r\nBrodzicki Tomasz, “Extended Gravity Panel Data Model of Poland`s Foreign Trade,”\r\n (2007), pp.1~16.\r\nBussière Matthieu, Fidrmuc Jarko, Schnatz Bernd, “EU Enlargement and Trade \r\n Integration: Lessons from a Gravity Model,” Review of Development Economic, \r\n Vol. 12, No. 3,(2002), pp.562~576.\r\nCzarny Elzbieta, Lang Gunter, “Accession Poland`s to the EU,” Bank i Kredyt, Vol.33\r\n (2002), pp.20~30.\r\nDeardorff, Alan V., “Determinants of Bilateral Trade: Does Gravity Work in a\r\n Neoclassical World?” The Regionalization of the World Economy, (1998), pp.7~32.\r\nFallenbuchl Zbigniew M., “Foreign Trade in the Process of Transformation in \r\n Poland,” Atlantic Economic Journal, Vol. 22, No. 2(1994), pp.51~60.\r\nFaucompret Erik, Konings Jozef, “The integration of Poland into the European Union, \r\n (2001).\r\nGurgul Henryk, Lach Lukasz, “International Trade and Economic Growth in the \r\n Polish Economy,” Operations Research and Decisions, No. 3-4(2010), pp.5~29.\r\n Heather Grabbe, “European Union Conditionality and the Acquis Communautaire,” \r\n International Political Science Review, Vol.23, No.3(2002), pp. 250~252.\r\nHorska Elena, Ubreziova Iveta, Krzysztof Wach, “Foreign Trade Changes in \r\n Poland and Slovakia as an Effect of Europeanization Before and After the\r\n Accession,” (2007), pp.177~186.\r\nImmaculada Martinez-Zarzoso, Felicitas Nowak-Lehmann, “Augmented Gravity \r\n Model: An Empirical Application to Mercosur-European Union Trade Flows,”\r\n Journal of Applied Economics, Vol. 6, No. 2(2003), pp.291~316.\r\nIsard, W., “Location Theory and Trade Theory: Short-Run Analysis,” Quarterly\r\n Journal of Economics, Vol.68(1954), pp.305~322.\r\nJan Borkowski, “Polish Integration Policy in the Context of the European Union`s \r\n Accession Strategy,” Yearbook of the Polish European Studies, Vol.5(2001), pp. \r\n 37~44\r\nJaroslaw Kundera, “Poland in the European Union: from dynamic to slow economic \r\n growth,” (2011), pp.455~479.\r\nKisiel-Lowczyc Anna B., “Poland`s trade in the BSR after the EU \r\n enlargement, ”Baltic Rim Economies, Vol. 389(2009), pp.40~41.\r\nKjell Engelbrekt, “Multiple Asymmetries: The European Union`s Neo-Byzantine \r\n Approach to Eastern Enlargement,” International Politics, Vol.39, No.1(2003), \r\n pp.37~52.\r\nLaaser Claus-Friedrich, Schrader Klaus, Heid Benedikt, “Trade Integration in an\r\n Enlarged European Union－Poland’s Road to Success？”World Economy Research \r\n Institute, Vol. 286(2008).\r\nLinnemann, H., An Econometric Analysis of International Trade Flows,\r\n North-Holland: Amsterdam. (1966).\r\nMisala Jozef, “Importance and Patterns of Poland`s Trade with Germany,” Kiel \r\n Working Paper, No.537(1998), pp.1~42.\r\nMorawczynski Rafal, Wach Krzysztof, “Does Polish Foreign Trade Impact \r\n Employment? Empirical Investigation,”(2004), pp.55~66.\r\nNowak Aloizy Z., “Poland in the European Union Initial Balance of Two Years: \r\n Selected Aspects,” ISPI Working Papers, Vol. 17(2007).\r\nPawlak Karolina, “Polish Foreign Trade in Dairy Products in the Aspect of the \r\n European Integration,” Roczniki Akademii Rolniczej w Poznaniu, Vol.17(2005), \r\n pp.67~77.\r\nPisarski Maciej, “Relations between Poland and the United States,” Yearbook of \r\n Polish Foreign Policy, (2007), pp.79~91.\r\nPöyhonen, P., “A Tentative Model for the Volume of Trade between Countries,”\r\n Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv , Vol.90(1963), pp.93~99.\r\nStone Susan F., Jeon Bang Nam, “Foreign Direct Investment and Trade in the \r\n Asia-Pacific Region: Complementarity, Distance and Regional Economic\r\n Integration,” Journal of Economic Integration, Vol.15, No.3(2000), pp.460~485.\r\nSüleyman Tulug Ok, “What Determines Intra-EU Trade? The Gravity Model\r\n Revisited,” international Research Journal of Finance and Economics, Vol. 39,\r\n (2010), pp.244~250.\r\nTaspinar Aytac, “Causal Relationship Between Export and Economic Growth. The \r\n Poland and Sweden Case,” Hogskolan i Halmstad, (2009), pp.1~25.\r\nTinbergen, J., Shaping the World Economy: Suggestions for an International\r\n Economic Policy, New York(1962).\r\n\r\n(三)網路資料\r\nCity Distance Tool\r\n <http://www.geobytes.com/citydistancetool.htm> (6/8/2012)\r\nCouncil of the European Union\r\n <http://www.consilium.europa.eu/council?lang=en> (10/7/2012)\r\nCourt of Auditors\r\n <http://eca.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/aboutus/abouttheeca> (10/7/2012)\r\nCourt of Justice\r\n <http://curia.europa.eu/jcms/jcms/Jo2_7024/> (10/7/2012)\r\nDascal Dana, Mattas Konstadinos, Tzouvelekas Vangelis, “An analysis of EU wine \r\n trade: a gravity model approach,” International Advances in Economic \r\n Research,(2002) (19/02/2012)\r\nEuropean Commission \r\n <http://ec.europa.eu/atwork/index_en.htm> (10/7/2012)\r\nEuropean Parliament \r\n<http://www.europarl.europa.eu/aboutparliament/en/0076b966cf/Powers-and-function\r\n s.html> (10/7/2012)\r\nEuropean Union, \"Countries\"\r\n <http://europa.eu/about-eu/countries/index_en.htm>(6/8/2012)\r\nInternational Monetary Fund, \" World Economic Outlook Database \"\r\n <http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2012/01/weodata/weoselgr.aspx>\r\n (6/8/2012)\r\nUnited Nation Conference on Trade and Development, \" UnctadStat \" \r\n <http://unctadstat.unctad.org/TableViewer/tableView.aspx> (6/8/2012)\r\n波蘭中央統計局\r\n <http://www.stat.gov.pl/gus/5840_6704_ENG_HTML.htm?action=show_archive>\r\n (19/10/2012)
描述 碩士
國立政治大學
俄羅斯研究所
99263007
101
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0992630071
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 魏艾zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) 趙翊如zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) 趙翊如zh_TW
dc.date (日期) 2012en_US
dc.date.accessioned 4-Feb-2013 09:42:13 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 4-Feb-2013 09:42:13 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 4-Feb-2013 09:42:13 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0992630071en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI) https://ah.lib.nccu.edu.tw/item?item_id=64488-
dc.description (描述) 碩士zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 俄羅斯研究所zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 99263007zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 101zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) 波蘭於2004年正式加入歐盟，加入歐盟至今已有八年，並於2011年成為歐盟輪值主席國。波蘭加入歐盟是否對其外貿具影響力?本論文透過波蘭參與歐盟的過程、加入歐盟後的經濟面向，以及引力模型進行實證分析。\r\n\r\n 從引力模型實證分析結果發現：一、歐盟雖然對波蘭進、出口貿易都具有正相關，但相較於進口方面，對波蘭出口影響程度卻相當微小。可能因素為波蘭加入歐盟後，在進口歐盟地區商品方面，受惠於歐盟規範下的貿易自由化，進口商品更為多元；而波蘭自1993年至2010年以來，出口貿易對象高達九成以上都屬歐洲地區，當然包含歐盟國家，因此無法確切指出波蘭出口額逐年增長的趨勢，完全是受到加入歐盟的影響。不過，整體而言，加入歐盟對波蘭外貿還是具有相當正面的效益。二、貿易國家的國民生產毛額變數，對波蘭外貿具有正面效益，換言之，貿易國家的經濟水準逐漸提升後，使得人民可支配所得增加，進而增加對波蘭商品的購買次數。三、貿易國家的人口變數，對波蘭外貿具有正面效益，表示當貿易國家的人口增加，對波蘭商品的需求量增加，使得兩國貿易量也隨之增加。四、兩國首都距離變數，對波蘭外貿具有負面效益：當兩國首都距離較近時，運輸成本也較低，因此兩國貿易次數頻繁；而當兩國首都距離較遠時，運輸成本提高，使得兩國貿易量減少。zh_TW
dc.description.tableofcontents 第壹章 緒論........................................................1 第一節 研究動機與目的..........................................1 \r\n 一、研究背景與動機..........................................1 \r\n 二、研究目的................................................2 \r\n 第二節 文獻探討................................................3\r\n 一、波蘭對外貿易相關文獻....................................3\r\n 二、引力模型的發展與實證.....................................9\r\n 第三節 研究方法與途徑.........................................14\r\n 第四節 研究範圍與限制.........................................15\r\n 一、研究範圍................................................15\r\n 二、研究限制................................................15\r\n 第五節 研究架構與章節安排.....................................16\r\n 一、研究架構................................................16\r\n 二、章節安排................................................17\r\n第貳章 波蘭加入歐盟的動機與過程...................................18\r\n 第一節 歐洲聯盟的框架.........................................18\r\n 一、歐洲聯盟成立的起源與特色................................18\r\n 二、歐洲聯盟的作用..........................................20\r\n 三、歐洲聯盟的主要機構......................................24\r\n 四、歐洲聯盟的擴大..........................................26\r\n 第二節 波蘭參與歐盟過程.......................................30\r\n 第三節 波蘭加入歐盟後的經濟面向...............................38\r\n\r\n\r\n第参章 模型說明與變數設定.........................................45\r\n 第一節 引力模型...............................................45\r\n 一、引力模型之介紹..........................................45\r\n 二、其他變數之介紹..........................................46\r\n 第二節 實證分析...............................................47\r\n 一、模型的建立..............................................47\r\n 二、數據來源................................................50\r\n第肆章 波蘭加入歐盟對外貿易的實證結果分析.........................60\r\n 第一節 統計分析...............................................60\r\n 一、波蘭與貿易地區分析......................................60\r\n 二、波蘭與歐盟國家貿易分析..................................66\r\n 第二節 實證結果分析...........................................69\r\n第伍章 結論.......................................................77\r\n 第一節 研究發現...............................................77\r\n 第二節 後續研究建議...........................................80\r\n參考文獻...........................................................81zh_TW
dc.language.iso en_US-
dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0992630071en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 波蘭zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 歐盟zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 對外貿易zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 引力模型zh_TW
dc.title (題名) 波蘭加入歐盟對其外貿影響之研究zh_TW
dc.title (題名) The Impact on Poland`s Foreign Trade for Joining EUen_US
dc.type (資料類型) thesisen
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 一、中文\r\n(一)書籍\r\n洪茂雄，歐盟的深化與廣化：中東歐國家加入歐盟的意義及其影響(臺北：前衛\r\n 出版社，2003年)。\r\n郭秋慶，歐洲聯盟概論(臺北：五南出版社，1999年)。\r\n張亞中，歐洲統合：政府間主義與超國家主義的互動(臺北：揚智出版社，1998\r\n 年)。\r\n\r\n(二)期刊論文\r\n楊三億，「歐盟東擴及其對波蘭衝擊：政治經濟面向之分析」，全球政治評論，第\r\n 11期(2005)，頁79~110。\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n二、英文\r\n(一) 書籍\r\nAlan Mayhew, Recreating Europe—The European Union`s Policy towards Central \r\n and Eastern Europe, (England: Cambridge University Press, 1998).\r\nDennis Swann, European Economic Integration: the Common Market, European \r\n Union and beyond, (Cheltenham: Edward Elgar Pub, 1996).\r\nMatthias Pechstein, Philipp Kubicki, “The Legal Framework of Accession to the \r\n European Union,” (Warsaw, 2002). \r\nPhilipp Schröder, “Eastern Enlargement: The New Challenge,” (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2001).\r\n \r\n(二)期刊\r\nAnderson, J. E., “A Theoretical Foundation for the Gravity Equation,” American \r\n Economic Review, Vol.69, No.1 (1979), pp.106~116.\r\nBergstrand, J. H., “The Gravity Equation in International Trade: Some\r\n Microeconomic Foundations and Empirical Evidence,” Review of Economics and\r\n Statistics, Vol.67, No.3(1985), pp. 474~481.\r\nBergstrand, J. H., “The Generalized Gravity Equation Monopolistic Competition, and\r\n the Factor-proportions Theory in International Trade,” Review of Economics and\r\n Statistics, Vol.71, No.1 (1989), pp.143~153.\r\nBlaszczuk Marzenna, Kaliszuk Ewa, “Poland`s Accession to the EU and its Effects on\r\n Trade with Russia and Ukraine,” Indeunis Papers, No. 516721(2006), pp.1~26.\r\nBrodzicki Tomasz, “Extended Gravity Panel Data Model of Poland`s Foreign Trade,”\r\n (2007), pp.1~16.\r\nBussière Matthieu, Fidrmuc Jarko, Schnatz Bernd, “EU Enlargement and Trade \r\n Integration: Lessons from a Gravity Model,” Review of Development Economic, \r\n Vol. 12, No. 3,(2002), pp.562~576.\r\nCzarny Elzbieta, Lang Gunter, “Accession Poland`s to the EU,” Bank i Kredyt, Vol.33\r\n (2002), pp.20~30.\r\nDeardorff, Alan V., “Determinants of Bilateral Trade: Does Gravity Work in a\r\n Neoclassical World?” The Regionalization of the World Economy, (1998), pp.7~32.\r\nFallenbuchl Zbigniew M., “Foreign Trade in the Process of Transformation in \r\n Poland,” Atlantic Economic Journal, Vol. 22, No. 2(1994), pp.51~60.\r\nFaucompret Erik, Konings Jozef, “The integration of Poland into the European Union, \r\n (2001).\r\nGurgul Henryk, Lach Lukasz, “International Trade and Economic Growth in the \r\n Polish Economy,” Operations Research and Decisions, No. 3-4(2010), pp.5~29.\r\n Heather Grabbe, “European Union Conditionality and the Acquis Communautaire,” \r\n International Political Science Review, Vol.23, No.3(2002), pp. 250~252.\r\nHorska Elena, Ubreziova Iveta, Krzysztof Wach, “Foreign Trade Changes in \r\n Poland and Slovakia as an Effect of Europeanization Before and After the\r\n Accession,” (2007), pp.177~186.\r\nImmaculada Martinez-Zarzoso, Felicitas Nowak-Lehmann, “Augmented Gravity \r\n Model: An Empirical Application to Mercosur-European Union Trade Flows,”\r\n Journal of Applied Economics, Vol. 6, No. 2(2003), pp.291~316.\r\nIsard, W., “Location Theory and Trade Theory: Short-Run Analysis,” Quarterly\r\n Journal of Economics, Vol.68(1954), pp.305~322.\r\nJan Borkowski, “Polish Integration Policy in the Context of the European Union`s \r\n Accession Strategy,” Yearbook of the Polish European Studies, Vol.5(2001), pp. \r\n 37~44\r\nJaroslaw Kundera, “Poland in the European Union: from dynamic to slow economic \r\n growth,” (2011), pp.455~479.\r\nKisiel-Lowczyc Anna B., “Poland`s trade in the BSR after the EU \r\n enlargement, ”Baltic Rim Economies, Vol. 389(2009), pp.40~41.\r\nKjell Engelbrekt, “Multiple Asymmetries: The European Union`s Neo-Byzantine \r\n Approach to Eastern Enlargement,” International Politics, Vol.39, No.1(2003), \r\n pp.37~52.\r\nLaaser Claus-Friedrich, Schrader Klaus, Heid Benedikt, “Trade Integration in an\r\n Enlarged European Union－Poland’s Road to Success？”World Economy Research \r\n Institute, Vol. 286(2008).\r\nLinnemann, H., An Econometric Analysis of International Trade Flows,\r\n North-Holland: Amsterdam. (1966).\r\nMisala Jozef, “Importance and Patterns of Poland`s Trade with Germany,” Kiel \r\n Working Paper, No.537(1998), pp.1~42.\r\nMorawczynski Rafal, Wach Krzysztof, “Does Polish Foreign Trade Impact \r\n Employment? Empirical Investigation,”(2004), pp.55~66.\r\nNowak Aloizy Z., “Poland in the European Union Initial Balance of Two Years: \r\n Selected Aspects,” ISPI Working Papers, Vol. 17(2007).\r\nPawlak Karolina, “Polish Foreign Trade in Dairy Products in the Aspect of the \r\n European Integration,” Roczniki Akademii Rolniczej w Poznaniu, Vol.17(2005), \r\n pp.67~77.\r\nPisarski Maciej, “Relations between Poland and the United States,” Yearbook of \r\n Polish Foreign Policy, (2007), pp.79~91.\r\nPöyhonen, P., “A Tentative Model for the Volume of Trade between Countries,”\r\n Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv , Vol.90(1963), pp.93~99.\r\nStone Susan F., Jeon Bang Nam, “Foreign Direct Investment and Trade in the \r\n Asia-Pacific Region: Complementarity, Distance and Regional Economic\r\n Integration,” Journal of Economic Integration, Vol.15, No.3(2000), pp.460~485.\r\nSüleyman Tulug Ok, “What Determines Intra-EU Trade? The Gravity Model\r\n Revisited,” international Research Journal of Finance and Economics, Vol. 39,\r\n (2010), pp.244~250.\r\nTaspinar Aytac, “Causal Relationship Between Export and Economic Growth. 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