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題名 波蘭加入歐盟對其外貿影響之研究
The Impact on Poland`s Foreign Trade for Joining EU作者 趙翊如 貢獻者 魏艾
趙翊如關鍵詞 波蘭
歐盟
對外貿易
引力模型日期 2012 上傳時間 4-Feb-2013 09:42:13 (UTC+8) 摘要 波蘭於2004年正式加入歐盟，加入歐盟至今已有八年，並於2011年成為歐盟輪值主席國。波蘭加入歐盟是否對其外貿具影響力?本論文透過波蘭參與歐盟的過程、加入歐盟後的經濟面向，以及引力模型進行實證分析。 從引力模型實證分析結果發現：一、歐盟雖然對波蘭進、出口貿易都具有正相關，但相較於進口方面，對波蘭出口影響程度卻相當微小。可能因素為波蘭加入歐盟後，在進口歐盟地區商品方面，受惠於歐盟規範下的貿易自由化，進口商品更為多元；而波蘭自1993年至2010年以來，出口貿易對象高達九成以上都屬歐洲地區，當然包含歐盟國家，因此無法確切指出波蘭出口額逐年增長的趨勢，完全是受到加入歐盟的影響。不過，整體而言，加入歐盟對波蘭外貿還是具有相當正面的效益。二、貿易國家的國民生產毛額變數，對波蘭外貿具有正面效益，換言之，貿易國家的經濟水準逐漸提升後，使得人民可支配所得增加，進而增加對波蘭商品的購買次數。三、貿易國家的人口變數，對波蘭外貿具有正面效益，表示當貿易國家的人口增加，對波蘭商品的需求量增加，使得兩國貿易量也隨之增加。四、兩國首都距離變數，對波蘭外貿具有負面效益：當兩國首都距離較近時，運輸成本也較低，因此兩國貿易次數頻繁；而當兩國首都距離較遠時，運輸成本提高，使得兩國貿易量減少。 參考文獻 一、中文 (一)書籍 洪茂雄，歐盟的深化與廣化：中東歐國家加入歐盟的意義及其影響(臺北：前衛 出版社，2003年)。 郭秋慶，歐洲聯盟概論(臺北：五南出版社，1999年)。 張亞中，歐洲統合：政府間主義與超國家主義的互動(臺北：揚智出版社，1998 年)。 (二)期刊論文 楊三億，「歐盟東擴及其對波蘭衝擊：政治經濟面向之分析」，全球政治評論，第 11期(2005)，頁79~110。 二、英文 (一) 書籍 Alan Mayhew, Recreating Europe—The European Union`s Policy towards Central and Eastern Europe, (England: Cambridge University Press, 1998). Dennis Swann, European Economic Integration: the Common Market, European Union and beyond, (Cheltenham: Edward Elgar Pub, 1996). Matthias Pechstein, Philipp Kubicki, “The Legal Framework of Accession to the European Union,” (Warsaw, 2002). Philipp Schröder, “Eastern Enlargement: The New Challenge,” (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2001). (二)期刊 Anderson, J. E., “A Theoretical Foundation for the Gravity Equation,” American Economic Review, Vol.69, No.1 (1979), pp.106~116. Bergstrand, J. H., “The Gravity Equation in International Trade: Some Microeconomic Foundations and Empirical Evidence,” Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol.67, No.3(1985), pp. 474~481. Bergstrand, J. H., “The Generalized Gravity Equation Monopolistic Competition, and the Factor-proportions Theory in International Trade,” Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol.71, No.1 (1989), pp.143~153. Blaszczuk Marzenna, Kaliszuk Ewa, “Poland`s Accession to the EU and its Effects on Trade with Russia and Ukraine,” Indeunis Papers, No. 516721(2006), pp.1~26. Brodzicki Tomasz, “Extended Gravity Panel Data Model of Poland`s Foreign Trade,” (2007), pp.1~16. Bussière Matthieu, Fidrmuc Jarko, Schnatz Bernd, “EU Enlargement and Trade Integration: Lessons from a Gravity Model,” Review of Development Economic, Vol. 12, No. 3,(2002), pp.562~576. Czarny Elzbieta, Lang Gunter, “Accession Poland`s to the EU,” Bank i Kredyt, Vol.33 (2002), pp.20~30. Deardorff, Alan V., “Determinants of Bilateral Trade: Does Gravity Work in a Neoclassical World?” The Regionalization of the World Economy, (1998), pp.7~32. Fallenbuchl Zbigniew M., “Foreign Trade in the Process of Transformation in Poland,” Atlantic Economic Journal, Vol. 22, No. 2(1994), pp.51~60. Faucompret Erik, Konings Jozef, “The integration of Poland into the European Union, (2001). Gurgul Henryk, Lach Lukasz, “International Trade and Economic Growth in the Polish Economy,” Operations Research and Decisions, No. 3-4(2010), pp.5~29. Heather Grabbe, “European Union Conditionality and the Acquis Communautaire,” International Political Science Review, Vol.23, No.3(2002), pp. 250~252. Horska Elena, Ubreziova Iveta, Krzysztof Wach, “Foreign Trade Changes in Poland and Slovakia as an Effect of Europeanization Before and After the Accession,” (2007), pp.177~186. Immaculada Martinez-Zarzoso, Felicitas Nowak-Lehmann, “Augmented Gravity Model: An Empirical Application to Mercosur-European Union Trade Flows,” Journal of Applied Economics, Vol. 6, No. 2(2003), pp.291~316. Isard, W., “Location Theory and Trade Theory: Short-Run Analysis,” Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol.68(1954), pp.305~322. Jan Borkowski, “Polish Integration Policy in the Context of the European Union`s Accession Strategy,” Yearbook of the Polish European Studies, Vol.5(2001), pp. 37~44 Jaroslaw Kundera, “Poland in the European Union: from dynamic to slow economic growth,” (2011), pp.455~479. Kisiel-Lowczyc Anna B., “Poland`s trade in the BSR after the EU enlargement, ”Baltic Rim Economies, Vol. 389(2009), pp.40~41. Kjell Engelbrekt, “Multiple Asymmetries: The European Union`s Neo-Byzantine Approach to Eastern Enlargement,” International Politics, Vol.39, No.1(2003), pp.37~52. Laaser Claus-Friedrich, Schrader Klaus, Heid Benedikt, “Trade Integration in an Enlarged European Union－Poland’s Road to Success？”World Economy Research Institute, Vol. 286(2008). Linnemann, H., An Econometric Analysis of International Trade Flows, North-Holland: Amsterdam. (1966). Misala Jozef, “Importance and Patterns of Poland`s Trade with Germany,” Kiel Working Paper, No.537(1998), pp.1~42. Morawczynski Rafal, Wach Krzysztof, “Does Polish Foreign Trade Impact Employment? Empirical Investigation,”(2004), pp.55~66. Nowak Aloizy Z., “Poland in the European Union Initial Balance of Two Years: Selected Aspects,” ISPI Working Papers, Vol. 17(2007). Pawlak Karolina, “Polish Foreign Trade in Dairy Products in the Aspect of the European Integration,” Roczniki Akademii Rolniczej w Poznaniu, Vol.17(2005), pp.67~77. Pisarski Maciej, “Relations between Poland and the United States,” Yearbook of Polish Foreign Policy, (2007), pp.79~91. Pöyhonen, P., “A Tentative Model for the Volume of Trade between Countries,” Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv , Vol.90(1963), pp.93~99. Stone Susan F., Jeon Bang Nam, “Foreign Direct Investment and Trade in the Asia-Pacific Region: Complementarity, Distance and Regional Economic Integration,” Journal of Economic Integration, Vol.15, No.3(2000), pp.460~485. Süleyman Tulug Ok, “What Determines Intra-EU Trade? The Gravity Model Revisited,” international Research Journal of Finance and Economics, Vol. 39, (2010), pp.244~250. Taspinar Aytac, “Causal Relationship Between Export and Economic Growth. The Poland and Sweden Case,” Hogskolan i Halmstad, (2009), pp.1~25. Tinbergen, J., Shaping the World Economy: Suggestions for an International Economic Policy, New York(1962). (三)網路資料 City Distance Tool 描述 碩士
國立政治大學
俄羅斯研究所
99263007
101資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0992630071 資料類型 thesis dc.contributor.advisor 魏艾 zh_TW dc.contributor.author (Authors) 趙翊如 zh_TW dc.creator (作者) 趙翊如 zh_TW dc.date (日期) 2012 en_US dc.date.accessioned 4-Feb-2013 09:42:13 (UTC+8) - dc.date.available 4-Feb-2013 09:42:13 (UTC+8) - dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 4-Feb-2013 09:42:13 (UTC+8) - dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0992630071 en_US dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/56922 - dc.description (描述) 碩士 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 俄羅斯研究所 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 99263007 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 101 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) 波蘭於2004年正式加入歐盟，加入歐盟至今已有八年，並於2011年成為歐盟輪值主席國。波蘭加入歐盟是否對其外貿具影響力?本論文透過波蘭參與歐盟的過程、加入歐盟後的經濟面向，以及引力模型進行實證分析。 從引力模型實證分析結果發現：一、歐盟雖然對波蘭進、出口貿易都具有正相關，但相較於進口方面，對波蘭出口影響程度卻相當微小。可能因素為波蘭加入歐盟後，在進口歐盟地區商品方面，受惠於歐盟規範下的貿易自由化，進口商品更為多元；而波蘭自1993年至2010年以來，出口貿易對象高達九成以上都屬歐洲地區，當然包含歐盟國家，因此無法確切指出波蘭出口額逐年增長的趨勢，完全是受到加入歐盟的影響。不過，整體而言，加入歐盟對波蘭外貿還是具有相當正面的效益。二、貿易國家的國民生產毛額變數，對波蘭外貿具有正面效益，換言之，貿易國家的經濟水準逐漸提升後，使得人民可支配所得增加，進而增加對波蘭商品的購買次數。三、貿易國家的人口變數，對波蘭外貿具有正面效益，表示當貿易國家的人口增加，對波蘭商品的需求量增加，使得兩國貿易量也隨之增加。四、兩國首都距離變數，對波蘭外貿具有負面效益：當兩國首都距離較近時，運輸成本也較低，因此兩國貿易次數頻繁；而當兩國首都距離較遠時，運輸成本提高，使得兩國貿易量減少。 zh_TW dc.description.tableofcontents 第壹章 緒論........................................................1 第一節 研究動機與目的..........................................1 一、研究背景與動機..........................................1 二、研究目的................................................2 第二節 文獻探討................................................3 一、波蘭對外貿易相關文獻....................................3 二、引力模型的發展與實證.....................................9 第三節 研究方法與途徑.........................................14 第四節 研究範圍與限制.........................................15 一、研究範圍................................................15 二、研究限制................................................15 第五節 研究架構與章節安排.....................................16 一、研究架構................................................16 二、章節安排................................................17 第貳章 波蘭加入歐盟的動機與過程...................................18 第一節 歐洲聯盟的框架.........................................18 一、歐洲聯盟成立的起源與特色................................18 二、歐洲聯盟的作用..........................................20 三、歐洲聯盟的主要機構......................................24 四、歐洲聯盟的擴大..........................................26 第二節 波蘭參與歐盟過程.......................................30 第三節 波蘭加入歐盟後的經濟面向...............................38 第参章 模型說明與變數設定.........................................45 第一節 引力模型...............................................45 一、引力模型之介紹..........................................45 二、其他變數之介紹..........................................46 第二節 實證分析...............................................47 一、模型的建立..............................................47 二、數據來源................................................50 第肆章 波蘭加入歐盟對外貿易的實證結果分析.........................60 第一節 統計分析...............................................60 一、波蘭與貿易地區分析......................................60 二、波蘭與歐盟國家貿易分析..................................66 第二節 實證結果分析...........................................69 第伍章 結論.......................................................77 第一節 研究發現...............................................77 第二節 後續研究建議...........................................80 參考文獻...........................................................81 zh_TW dc.language.iso en_US - dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0992630071 en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) 波蘭 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 歐盟 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 對外貿易 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 引力模型 zh_TW dc.title (題名) 波蘭加入歐盟對其外貿影響之研究 zh_TW dc.title (題名) The Impact on Poland`s Foreign Trade for Joining EU en_US dc.type (資料類型) thesis en dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 一、中文 (一)書籍 洪茂雄，歐盟的深化與廣化：中東歐國家加入歐盟的意義及其影響(臺北：前衛 出版社，2003年)。 郭秋慶，歐洲聯盟概論(臺北：五南出版社，1999年)。 張亞中，歐洲統合：政府間主義與超國家主義的互動(臺北：揚智出版社，1998 年)。 (二)期刊論文 楊三億，「歐盟東擴及其對波蘭衝擊：政治經濟面向之分析」，全球政治評論，第 11期(2005)，頁79~110。 二、英文 (一) 書籍 Alan Mayhew, Recreating Europe—The European Union`s Policy towards Central and Eastern Europe, (England: Cambridge University Press, 1998). Dennis Swann, European Economic Integration: the Common Market, European Union and beyond, (Cheltenham: Edward Elgar Pub, 1996). Matthias Pechstein, Philipp Kubicki, “The Legal Framework of Accession to the European Union,” (Warsaw, 2002). Philipp Schröder, “Eastern Enlargement: The New Challenge,” (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2001). (二)期刊 Anderson, J. E., “A Theoretical Foundation for the Gravity Equation,” American Economic Review, Vol.69, No.1 (1979), pp.106~116. Bergstrand, J. H., “The Gravity Equation in International Trade: Some Microeconomic Foundations and Empirical Evidence,” Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol.67, No.3(1985), pp. 474~481. Bergstrand, J. H., “The Generalized Gravity Equation Monopolistic Competition, and the Factor-proportions Theory in International Trade,” Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol.71, No.1 (1989), pp.143~153. Blaszczuk Marzenna, Kaliszuk Ewa, “Poland`s Accession to the EU and its Effects on Trade with Russia and Ukraine,” Indeunis Papers, No. 516721(2006), pp.1~26. Brodzicki Tomasz, “Extended Gravity Panel Data Model of Poland`s Foreign Trade,” (2007), pp.1~16. Bussière Matthieu, Fidrmuc Jarko, Schnatz Bernd, “EU Enlargement and Trade Integration: Lessons from a Gravity Model,” Review of Development Economic, Vol. 12, No. 3,(2002), pp.562~576. Czarny Elzbieta, Lang Gunter, “Accession Poland`s to the EU,” Bank i Kredyt, Vol.33 (2002), pp.20~30. Deardorff, Alan V., “Determinants of Bilateral Trade: Does Gravity Work in a Neoclassical World?” The Regionalization of the World Economy, (1998), pp.7~32. Fallenbuchl Zbigniew M., “Foreign Trade in the Process of Transformation in Poland,” Atlantic Economic Journal, Vol. 22, No. 2(1994), pp.51~60. Faucompret Erik, Konings Jozef, “The integration of Poland into the European Union, (2001). Gurgul Henryk, Lach Lukasz, “International Trade and Economic Growth in the Polish Economy,” Operations Research and Decisions, No. 3-4(2010), pp.5~29. Heather Grabbe, “European Union Conditionality and the Acquis Communautaire,” International Political Science Review, Vol.23, No.3(2002), pp. 250~252. Horska Elena, Ubreziova Iveta, Krzysztof Wach, “Foreign Trade Changes in Poland and Slovakia as an Effect of Europeanization Before and After the Accession,” (2007), pp.177~186. Immaculada Martinez-Zarzoso, Felicitas Nowak-Lehmann, “Augmented Gravity Model: An Empirical Application to Mercosur-European Union Trade Flows,” Journal of Applied Economics, Vol. 6, No. 2(2003), pp.291~316. Isard, W., “Location Theory and Trade Theory: Short-Run Analysis,” Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol.68(1954), pp.305~322. Jan Borkowski, “Polish Integration Policy in the Context of the European Union`s Accession Strategy,” Yearbook of the Polish European Studies, Vol.5(2001), pp. 37~44 Jaroslaw Kundera, “Poland in the European Union: from dynamic to slow economic growth,” (2011), pp.455~479. Kisiel-Lowczyc Anna B., “Poland`s trade in the BSR after the EU enlargement, ”Baltic Rim Economies, Vol. 389(2009), pp.40~41. Kjell Engelbrekt, “Multiple Asymmetries: The European Union`s Neo-Byzantine Approach to Eastern Enlargement,” International Politics, Vol.39, No.1(2003), pp.37~52. Laaser Claus-Friedrich, Schrader Klaus, Heid Benedikt, “Trade Integration in an Enlarged European Union－Poland’s Road to Success？”World Economy Research Institute, Vol. 286(2008). Linnemann, H., An Econometric Analysis of International Trade Flows, North-Holland: Amsterdam. (1966). Misala Jozef, “Importance and Patterns of Poland`s Trade with Germany,” Kiel Working Paper, No.537(1998), pp.1~42. Morawczynski Rafal, Wach Krzysztof, “Does Polish Foreign Trade Impact Employment? Empirical Investigation,”(2004), pp.55~66. Nowak Aloizy Z., “Poland in the European Union Initial Balance of Two Years: Selected Aspects,” ISPI Working Papers, Vol. 17(2007). Pawlak Karolina, “Polish Foreign Trade in Dairy Products in the Aspect of the European Integration,” Roczniki Akademii Rolniczej w Poznaniu, Vol.17(2005), pp.67~77. Pisarski Maciej, “Relations between Poland and the United States,” Yearbook of Polish Foreign Policy, (2007), pp.79~91. Pöyhonen, P., “A Tentative Model for the Volume of Trade between Countries,” Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv , Vol.90(1963), pp.93~99. Stone Susan F., Jeon Bang Nam, “Foreign Direct Investment and Trade in the Asia-Pacific Region: Complementarity, Distance and Regional Economic Integration,” Journal of Economic Integration, Vol.15, No.3(2000), pp.460~485. Süleyman Tulug Ok, “What Determines Intra-EU Trade? The Gravity Model Revisited,” international Research Journal of Finance and Economics, Vol. 39, (2010), pp.244~250. Taspinar Aytac, “Causal Relationship Between Export and Economic Growth. The Poland and Sweden Case,” Hogskolan i Halmstad, (2009), pp.1~25. Tinbergen, J., Shaping the World Economy: Suggestions for an International Economic Policy, New York(1962). (三)網路資料 City Distance Tool zh_TW
