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題名 智慧資本、中國區域創新能力與分析師預測行為
Intellectual Capital, Regional Innovation Capability of China, and Analysts` Forecast Behavior
作者 高郁婷
Kao, Yu Ting
貢獻者 詹凌菁
高郁婷
Kao, Yu Ting
關鍵詞 區域創新能力
分析師預測行為
研究發展費用
創新活動的揭露
Regional innovation capability
analysts` forecast behavior
research and development expenditure
innovation disclosure
日期 2012
上傳時間 11-Jul-2013 16:26:46 (UTC+8)
摘要 區域技術創新能力是展現區域將知識轉化為經濟的能力，是區域競爭力的重要內容。由於區域創新能力是造成中國各區域經濟發展差距的主要原因之一。本研究採用中國之上市公司為研究對象，探討公司創新活動的揭露與中國各省（自治區、直轄市）創新能力對分析師預測行為及分析師預測跟隨人數之影響。由三個面向檢視區域創新能力：研究與試驗發展全時人員當量增長率(REGTH)、政府研發投入占GDP比例(GIGDP)、每百萬人平均發明專利授權數(AVPAT)。研究結果發現創新活動揭露越多之公司，分析師之預測誤差程度越低、分析師之離散度越高且能吸引越多分析師對公司做預測。區域創新能力指標REGTH越高地區，分析師預測跟隨人數越少；區域創新能力指標GIGDP越高地區，分析師之預測誤差程度越低、分析師之離散度越低、分析師預測跟隨人數越少；區域創新能力指標AVPAT越高地區，分析師之預測誤差程度越低、分析師之離散度越低、分析師預測跟隨人數越多。
Regional innovation capability is an important competitive ability to improve the economic development in China. Using a sample of Chinese listed companies, this study investigates the extent to which innovation disclosure at the company level and regional innovation capabilities affect analysts’ forecast characteristics in terms of forecast error, and forecast dispersion, and the number of analysts’ following. The indicators of regional innovation capabilities are the growth rate of R&D full-time equivalent personnel (REGTH), regional government`s investment in R&D per GDP (GIGDP), and average of innovation patent authorized per millions of people in one region (AVPAT). The results indicate that firms with more innovation disclosures improve analysts’ forecast error, and regions with higher GIGDP and AVPAT also improve analysts’ forecast error. For firms with more innovation disclosures increase analysts’ forecast dispersion, and for regions with lower GIGDP and AVPAT increase analysts’ forecast dispersion. I also find firms with more innovation disclosures attract more analysts’ following, and regions with higher REGTH and GIGDP have less analysts’ following, while regions with higher AVPAT attract more analysts’ following.
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Abarbanell, J. S., and V. Bernard. 1992. Tests of analysts` overreaction/underreaction to earnings information as an explanation for anomalous stock price behavior. The Journal of Finance 47 (3): 1181-207.
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Amir, E., and B. Lev. 1996. Value-relevance of nonfinancial information: The wireless communications industry. Journal of Accounting & Economics 22: 3–30.
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Atiase, R. K. 1985. Predisclosure information, firm capitalization, and security price behavior around earnings announcements. Journal of Accounting Research 23: 21-36.
Audretsch, D., and M. Feldman. 1996. R&D spillovers and the geography of innovation and production. American Economics Review 86 (3): 630-40.
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Barron, O., D. Byard, C. Kile, and E. J. Riedl. 2002. High-technology intangibles and analysts’ forecasts. Journal of Accounting Research 40 (2): 289–312.
Barth, M., R. Kasznik ,and M. McNichols. 2001. Analyst coverage and intangible assets. Journal of Accounting Research 39 (1): 1-34.
Basu, S., L. Hwang, and C. L. Jan. 1998. International variation in accounting measurement rules and analysts’ earnings forecast errors. Journal of Business Finance and Accounting 25 (9/10): 1207–1247.
Beaver, W. 2002. Perspectives on recent capital market research. The Accounting Review 77 (2): 453-474.
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Chambers, D., R. Jennings, and R. B. Thompson II. 2002. Excess returns to R&D-intensive firms. Review of Accounting Studies 7: 133–158.
Chan, A. L. C. 2012. Innovation activity and corporate financing: evidence from a developing economy. Applied Financial Economics 22 (20): 1665-1678.
Chan, L., J. Lakonishok, and T. Sougiannis. 2000. The stock market valuation of research and development expenditures. Journal of Finance 56: 2431–2456.
Chang, J. J., T. Khanna, and K. G. Palepu. 2000. Analyst Activity Around the World. SSRN Working Paper.
Chin, C. L., H. Chi, A. Anandarajan, and Lee, P. 2006. Patent Citation, R&D Spillover, and Tobin’s Q: Evidence from the Taiwan Semiconductor Industry. Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting 26: 67-84.
Chin, C. L., P. Lee, K. Gary, and P. Y. Chen. 2006. IPO anomalies and innovation capital. Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting 27: 67-91.
Ciccone, S. J. 2001. Analyst forecast properties, financial distress, and business risk. SSRN Working Paper.
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Daniel, K., D. Hirshleifer, and A. Subrahmanyam. 1998. Investor psychology and security market under- and over-reactions. The Journal of Finance 53 (6): 1839-86.
Duru, A., and D. Reeb 2002. International Diversification and Analysts’ Forecast Accuracy and Bias. Accounting Review 77 (2): 415–33.
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Ernst, H. 2001. Patent applications and subsequent changes of performance: evidence from time-series cross-sectional analyses on the firm level. Research Policy 30: 143–157.
Fu, X. 2008. Foreign direct investment, absorptive capacity and regional innovation capabilities: Evidence from China. Oxford Development Studies 36(1): 89-110.
Griliches, Z. 1979. Issues in assessing the contribution of R&D to productivity growth. Bell Journal of Economics 10: 92-116.
Gu, F., and W. Wang. 2005. Intangible assets, information complexity, and analysts’ earnings forecasts. Journal of Business Finance & Accounting 32 (9) & (10): 1673–1702.
Galbraith, J. K. 1969. Ambassador’s Journal: A Personal Account of the Kennedy Years. London, Hamilton.
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Hall, B. H., A. Jaffe, and M. Trajtenberg. 2005. Market value and patent citations. RAND Journal of Economics 36: 16–38.
Haw, I., K. Jung, and W. Ruland. 1994. The accuracy of financial analysts’ forecasts after mergers. Journal of Accounting, Auditing, and Financing 9 (3): 465–87.
Hall, L., and S. Bagchi-Sen. 2002. A study of R&D, innovation, and business performance in the Canadian biotechnology industry. Technovation 22: 231–244.
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Holland, J. 1998. Private Disclosure and Financial Reporting. Accounting and Business Research 28: 255–269.
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描述 碩士
國立政治大學
會計研究所
100353014
101
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0100353014
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 詹凌菁zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) 高郁婷zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) Kao, Yu Tingen_US
dc.creator (作者) 高郁婷zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) Kao, Yu Tingen_US
dc.date (日期) 2012en_US
dc.date.accessioned 11-Jul-2013 16:26:46 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 11-Jul-2013 16:26:46 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 11-Jul-2013 16:26:46 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0100353014en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/58770-
dc.description (描述) 碩士zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 會計研究所zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 100353014zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 101zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) 區域技術創新能力是展現區域將知識轉化為經濟的能力，是區域競爭力的重要內容。由於區域創新能力是造成中國各區域經濟發展差距的主要原因之一。本研究採用中國之上市公司為研究對象，探討公司創新活動的揭露與中國各省（自治區、直轄市）創新能力對分析師預測行為及分析師預測跟隨人數之影響。由三個面向檢視區域創新能力：研究與試驗發展全時人員當量增長率(REGTH)、政府研發投入占GDP比例(GIGDP)、每百萬人平均發明專利授權數(AVPAT)。研究結果發現創新活動揭露越多之公司，分析師之預測誤差程度越低、分析師之離散度越高且能吸引越多分析師對公司做預測。區域創新能力指標REGTH越高地區，分析師預測跟隨人數越少；區域創新能力指標GIGDP越高地區，分析師之預測誤差程度越低、分析師之離散度越低、分析師預測跟隨人數越少；區域創新能力指標AVPAT越高地區，分析師之預測誤差程度越低、分析師之離散度越低、分析師預測跟隨人數越多。zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) Regional innovation capability is an important competitive ability to improve the economic development in China. Using a sample of Chinese listed companies, this study investigates the extent to which innovation disclosure at the company level and regional innovation capabilities affect analysts’ forecast characteristics in terms of forecast error, and forecast dispersion, and the number of analysts’ following. The indicators of regional innovation capabilities are the growth rate of R&D full-time equivalent personnel (REGTH), regional government`s investment in R&D per GDP (GIGDP), and average of innovation patent authorized per millions of people in one region (AVPAT). The results indicate that firms with more innovation disclosures improve analysts’ forecast error, and regions with higher GIGDP and AVPAT also improve analysts’ forecast error. For firms with more innovation disclosures increase analysts’ forecast dispersion, and for regions with lower GIGDP and AVPAT increase analysts’ forecast dispersion. I also find firms with more innovation disclosures attract more analysts’ following, and regions with higher REGTH and GIGDP have less analysts’ following, while regions with higher AVPAT attract more analysts’ following.en_US
dc.description.tableofcontents 1. Introduction 1
2. Literature review and research hypotheses 6
2.1 Intangible assets and innovation process 6
2.1.1 Innovation at the firm-level 6
2.1.2 Innovation at the regional-level 9
2.2 Analysts’ Forecast Behavior 12
2.3 Hypothesis Development 16
3. Research Design 19
3.1 Sample selection 19
3.2 Variables 19
3.3 Research model 23
4. Results 27
4.1 Descriptive Statistics 27
4.2 Empirical findings 36
4.2.1 Analysts’ forecast error, firm-level innovation disclosure, and regional innovation capability 36
4.2.2 Analysts’ forecast dispersion, firm-level innovation disclosure, and regional innovation capability 42
4.2.3 Analysts’ following, firm-level innovation disclosure, and regional innovation capability 47
5. Conclusions 52
References 54		zh_TW
dc.language.iso en_US-
dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0100353014en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 區域創新能力zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 分析師預測行為zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 研究發展費用zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 創新活動的揭露zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Regional innovation capabilityen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) analysts` forecast behavioren_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) research and development expenditureen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) innovation disclosureen_US
dc.title (題名) 智慧資本、中國區域創新能力與分析師預測行為zh_TW
dc.title (題名) Intellectual Capital, Regional Innovation Capability of China, and Analysts` Forecast Behavioren_US
dc.type (資料類型) thesisen
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Aaker, D., and J. Carman .1982. Are you overadvertising? Journal of Adverting Research 22 (4): 57–70.
Abarbanell, J. S. 1991. Do analysts` earnings forecasts incorporate information in prior stock price changes? Journal of Accounting and Economics 14 (2): 147-65.
Abarbanell, J. S., and V. Bernard. 1992. Tests of analysts` overreaction/underreaction to earnings information as an explanation for anomalous stock price behavior. The Journal of Finance 47 (3): 1181-207.
Aboody, D., and Lev, B. 1998. The Value-relevance of intangibles: The case of software capitalization. Journal of Accounting Research 36: 161-191.
Ali, A., A. Klein, and J. Rosenfeld. 1992. Analysts` use of information about permanent and transitory earnings components in forecasting annual EPS. The Accounting Review 67 (1): 183-98.
Amir, E., and B. Lev. 1996. Value-relevance of nonfinancial information: The wireless communications industry. Journal of Accounting & Economics 22: 3–30.
Amir, E., Y. Guan, and G. Livne. 2007. The association of R&D and capital expenditures with subsequent earnings variability. Journal of Business Finance and Accounting 34: 222–246.
Anselin, L., A. Varga, and Z. Acs. 1997. Local geographic spillovers between university research and high technology innovations. Journal of urban economics 42: 422-448.
Arrow, K. J. 1962. Economic welfare and the allocation of resources for invention’, in R. R. Nelson (ed.), The Rate and Direction of Inventive Activity: Economic and Social Factors, Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press for N.B.E.R.: 609–625.
Ashton, A. H., and R. H. Ashton. 1985. Aggregating Subjective Forecasts: Some Empirical Results. Management Science 31 (12): 1499–1508.
Atiase, R. K. 1985. Predisclosure information, firm capitalization, and security price behavior around earnings announcements. Journal of Accounting Research 23: 21-36.
Audretsch, D., and M. Feldman. 1996. R&D spillovers and the geography of innovation and production. American Economics Review 86 (3): 630-40.
Barney, J. 1991. Firm resources and sustained competitive advantage. Journal of Management 17: 99–120.
Barron, O., D. Byard, C. Kile, and E. J. Riedl. 2002. High-technology intangibles and analysts’ forecasts. Journal of Accounting Research 40 (2): 289–312.
Barth, M., R. Kasznik ,and M. McNichols. 2001. Analyst coverage and intangible assets. Journal of Accounting Research 39 (1): 1-34.
Basu, S., L. Hwang, and C. L. Jan. 1998. International variation in accounting measurement rules and analysts’ earnings forecast errors. Journal of Business Finance and Accounting 25 (9/10): 1207–1247.
Beaver, W. 2002. Perspectives on recent capital market research. The Accounting Review 77 (2): 453-474.
Braczyk, H., Cooke, P., Heidenreich, M. (Eds.). 1997. Regional Innovation Systems. UCL Press, London.
Braczyk, HJ., P. Cooke, and M. Heidenreich. 1998. Regional Innovation Systems: The role of governance in a globalized world. London; New York 2004 : Routledge.
Breschi, S., and F. Lissoni. 2001. Knowledge spillovers and local innovation systems: a critical survey. Industrial and Corporate Change 10 (4): 975-1004.
Chambers, D., R. Jennings, and R. B. Thompson II. 2002. Excess returns to R&D-intensive firms. Review of Accounting Studies 7: 133–158.
Chan, A. L. C. 2012. Innovation activity and corporate financing: evidence from a developing economy. Applied Financial Economics 22 (20): 1665-1678.
Chan, L., J. Lakonishok, and T. Sougiannis. 2000. The stock market valuation of research and development expenditures. Journal of Finance 56: 2431–2456.
Chang, J. J., T. Khanna, and K. G. Palepu. 2000. Analyst Activity Around the World. SSRN Working Paper.
Chin, C. L., H. Chi, A. Anandarajan, and Lee, P. 2006. Patent Citation, R&D Spillover, and Tobin’s Q: Evidence from the Taiwan Semiconductor Industry. Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting 26: 67-84.
Chin, C. L., P. Lee, K. Gary, and P. Y. Chen. 2006. IPO anomalies and innovation capital. Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting 27: 67-91.
Ciccone, S. J. 2001. Analyst forecast properties, financial distress, and business risk. SSRN Working Paper.
Cohen, W., and R. Levinthal 1989. Innovation and Learning: The Two Faces of R&D—Implications for the Analysis of R&D Investment. Economic Journal 99: 569–96.
Daniel, K., D. Hirshleifer, and A. Subrahmanyam. 1998. Investor psychology and security market under- and over-reactions. The Journal of Finance 53 (6): 1839-86.
Duru, A., and D. Reeb 2002. International Diversification and Analysts’ Forecast Accuracy and Bias. Accounting Review 77 (2): 415–33.
Edwards, W. 1968. Conservatism in human information processing. In Formal Representation of Human Judgment, ed. B. Kleinmutz, 17-52. New York: Wiley.
Ernst, H. 2001. Patent applications and subsequent changes of performance: evidence from time-series cross-sectional analyses on the firm level. Research Policy 30: 143–157.
Fu, X. 2008. Foreign direct investment, absorptive capacity and regional innovation capabilities: Evidence from China. Oxford Development Studies 36(1): 89-110.
Griliches, Z. 1979. Issues in assessing the contribution of R&D to productivity growth. Bell Journal of Economics 10: 92-116.
Gu, F., and W. Wang. 2005. Intangible assets, information complexity, and analysts’ earnings forecasts. Journal of Business Finance & Accounting 32 (9) & (10): 1673–1702.
Galbraith, J. K. 1969. Ambassador’s Journal: A Personal Account of the Kennedy Years. London, Hamilton.
Hall, B. H. 1993. The stock market valuation of R&D investment during the 1980s. American Economic Review 83: 259–264.
Hall, B. H., A. Jaffe, and M. Trajtenberg. 2005. Market value and patent citations. RAND Journal of Economics 36: 16–38.
Haw, I., K. Jung, and W. Ruland. 1994. The accuracy of financial analysts’ forecasts after mergers. Journal of Accounting, Auditing, and Financing 9 (3): 465–87.
Hall, L., and S. Bagchi-Sen. 2002. A study of R&D, innovation, and business performance in the Canadian biotechnology industry. Technovation 22: 231–244.
Harhoff, D., F. Narin, F. M. Scherer, and K. Vopel. 1999. Citation frequency and the value of patented innovation. Review of Economics and Statistics 81 (3): 511–515.
Hirshleifer, D. 2001. Investor psychology and asset pricing. The Journal of Finance 56 (4): 1533-1596.
Hirshleifer, D., P. H. Hsu, and D. Li. 2013. Innovative efficiency and stock returns. Journal of Financial Economics 107: 632-654.
Holland, J. 1998. Private Disclosure and Financial Reporting. Accounting and Business Research 28: 255–269.
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