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題名 結合模擬效果之回顧分析—以中國汽車市場為例
Retrospective Analysis of the Effect of Merger Simulation－An Example in China`s Auto Market作者 巫婉萍 貢獻者 胡偉民
巫婉萍關鍵詞 結合模擬
中國汽車產業
差異中之差異法日期 2012 上傳時間 23-Jul-2013 13:50:34 (UTC+8) 摘要 產業組織理論中，企業的結合行為，可能產生嚴重的反競爭效果，故在反壟斷法規有關於結合的反競爭分析中，結合模擬（Merger Simulation）是結合審查過程中常用的工具，作為評估結合適當性的經濟證據。而模擬的方法，是利用結合前的資料，預測結合後的經濟後果，但結果是否失真，還需運用事後實際市場資料，回顧模擬預測的結果，而這長期效果之評估，將有助於增加判決的品質。本研究將以結合模擬的回顧分析方向出發，以中國汽車市場為例，分析以實際資料衡量的結合效果是否與模擬預測有異。模擬預測之結合效果，本文以Hu, Lu, and Zhu（2013）之結論為主要參考：結合行為會使得結合企業的產品價格提升，增強結合廠商的市場能力。實際資料衡量的結合效果，本研究以 2009 年 1 月至 2011 年 11 月中國汽車 295 個車款的混合資料，運用自然實驗（Natural Experiment）法的差異中之差異法 （Difference in Difference，DID）分析 2009 年 11 月中國三家汽車公司發生結合對價格的影響效果。然而，由於結合模擬諸多的假設上以及未考量企業結合後的綜效，例如靜態模型估計設定、成本協同（Cost Synergy）效應、產品進行重新定位（Reposition）等，導致結合模擬預測結果與實際資料估計出之實證結果並不完全相符。 參考文獻 中文部分：中國汽車工業協會汽車技術中心（2010），《2010年版中國汽車工業年鑑》，北京市：機械工業。中國汽車工業協會汽車技術中心（2011），《2011年版中國汽車工業年鑑》，北京市：機械工業。中國汽車工業協會汽車技術中心（2012），《2012年版中國汽車工業年鑑》，北京市：機械工業。平新喬和魏軍鋒（2001）,《中國汽車工業市場規模和企業數量》，北京大學中國經濟研究中心討論稿系列，編號：C2001007。胡偉民（2012），「結合模擬（merger simulation）與價格上漲壓力（UPP）之介紹與應用–以中國汽車和速食麵市場為例」，工作論文。夏樂生（1997），「中國大陸汽車工業發展現況—兼論台商赴大陸投資汽車產業情形」，《共黨問題研究》，23（4），54-70。路風、封凱棟（2005），《發展我國自主知識產權汽車工業的政策選擇》，北京：北京大學出版。英文部分：Angrist, J. D. & J.S. Pischke (2010), “The Credibility Revolution in Empirical Economics: How Better Research Design Is Taking the Con out of Econometrics.” Journal of Economic Perspectives, 24(2), 3-30.Ashenfelter, O. & D. Card (1985), “Using the Longitudinal Structure of Earnings to Estimate the Effect of Training Programs,” The Review of Economics and Statistics, 648-660.Ashenfelter, O. & D. Hosken (2008) , “The Effect of Mergers on Consumer Prices: Evidence from Five Selected Case Studies,” Working Paper, (No. w13859), National Bureau of Economic Research.Berry, S., J. Levinsohn & A. Pakes (1995), “Automobile Prices in Market Equilibrium,” Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 841-890.Bertrand, M., E. Duflo & S. Mullainathan (2004), “How Much Should We Trust Differences-in-Differences Estimates?” The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 119(1), 249-275.Bjornerstedt, J. & F. Verboven (2012), “Does Merger Simulation Work? A Natural Experiment in the Swedish Analgesics Market,” Katholieke Universiteit Leuven Discussion Paper Series, 12.Budzinski, O. & I. Ruhmer (2010), “Merger Simulation in Competition Policy: A Survey,” Journal of Competition Law and Economics, 6(2), 277-319.Card, D. & A. B. Krueger (1994), “Minimum Wages and Employment: A Case Study of the Fast-Food Industry in New Jersey and Pennsylvania,” American Economic Review, 84(4), 772-93.Donohue, J. & S. D. Levitt (2001), “The impact of legalized abortion on crime,” Quarterly Journal of Economics, 116(2), 379-420.Eissa, N. (1995), “Taxation and Labor Supply of Married Women: The Tax Reform Act of 1986 as a Natural Experiment,” National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper, 5023.Eissa, N. & J. B. Liebman (1996), “Labor supply response to the earned income tax credit,” The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 111(2), 605-637.Ellwood, D. T. (2000), “The Impact of the Earned Income Tax Credit and Social Policy Reforms on Work, Marriage, and Living Arrangements,” National Tax Journal, 53(4), 1063-1106.Epstein, R. J. & D. L. Rubinfeld (2002), “Merger simulation: A simplified approach with new applications,” Antitrust Law Journal, 69(3), 883-919.Farrell, J. & C. Shapiro (1990), “Horizontal Mergers: An Equilibrium Analysis,” The American Economic Review, 107-126.Focarelli, D. & F. Panetta (2003), “Are Mergers Beneficial to Consumers? Evidence from the Market for Bank Deposits,” American Economic Review, 1152-1172.Goldberg, P. K. (1995), “Product Differentiation and Oligopoly in International Markets: The Case of the US Automobile Industry,” Econometrica, 63(4), 891-951.Hausman, J., G. Leonard & J. D. Zona (1994), “Competitive Analysis with Differenciated Products,” Annales d`Economie et de Statistique, 159-180.Holweg, M., J. Luo & N. Oliver (2009), “The Past, Present and Future of China`s Automotive Industry: A Value Chain Perspective,” International Journal of Technological Learning, Innovation and Development, 2(1), 76-118.Hu, W., Z. Lu & D. Zhu (2013), “Demand Estimation of the Chinese New Car Market: a BLP Estimation with Incomplete Price Data,” Working Paper.Hu, W., J. Xiao & X. Zhou (2011), “Corporate Group and Inter-firm Relationship of Chinese Passenger-vehicle Industry,” Working Paper.Mariuzzo, F. (2005), “The Effect of Differences in Buyer and Non-Buyer Characteristics on Equilibrium Price-Elasticities: An Empirical Study on the Italian Automobile Market,” Working Paper, (No. 2000513). Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.Molnar, J. (2008), “Market Power and Merger Simulation in Retail Banking,” Bank of Finland Research Discussion Paper, (No. 4).Nevo, A. (2000), “Mergers with Differentiated Products: The Case of the Ready-to-Eat Cereal Industry,” The RAND Journal of Economics, 395-421.Nevo, A. & M. D. Whinston (2010), “Taking the Dogma Out of Econometrics: Structural Modeling and Credible Inference,” The Journal of Economic Perspectives, 24(2), 69-81.Peters, C. (2006), “Evaluating the Performance of Merger Simulation: Evidence from the US Airline Industry,” Journal of Law and Economics, 49(2), 627-649.Petrin, A. (2002), “Quantifying the Benefits of New Products: The Case of the Minivan,” Journal of Political Economy, 110(4), 705-729.Weinberg, M. C. (2011), “More Evidence on the Performance of Merger Simulations,” The American Economic Review, 101(3), 51-55.Weinberg, M. C. & D. Hosken (2008), “Using Mergers to Test a Model of Oligopoly,” Working Paper.Werden, G. J. & L. M. Froeb (1994), “The Effects of Mergers in Differentiated Products Industries: Logit Demand and Merger Policy,” Journal of Law Economics and Organization, 10(2), 407-407. 描述 碩士
國立政治大學
財政研究所
100255001
101資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0100255001 資料類型 thesis dc.contributor.advisor 胡偉民 zh_TW dc.contributor.author (Authors) 巫婉萍 zh_TW dc.creator (作者) 巫婉萍 zh_TW dc.date (日期) 2012 en_US dc.date.accessioned 23-Jul-2013 13:50:34 (UTC+8) - dc.date.available 23-Jul-2013 13:50:34 (UTC+8) - dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 23-Jul-2013 13:50:34 (UTC+8) - dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0100255001 en_US dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/59003 - dc.description (描述) 碩士 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 財政研究所 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 100255001 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 101 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) 產業組織理論中，企業的結合行為，可能產生嚴重的反競爭效果，故在反壟斷法規有關於結合的反競爭分析中，結合模擬（Merger Simulation）是結合審查過程中常用的工具，作為評估結合適當性的經濟證據。而模擬的方法，是利用結合前的資料，預測結合後的經濟後果，但結果是否失真，還需運用事後實際市場資料，回顧模擬預測的結果，而這長期效果之評估，將有助於增加判決的品質。本研究將以結合模擬的回顧分析方向出發，以中國汽車市場為例，分析以實際資料衡量的結合效果是否與模擬預測有異。模擬預測之結合效果，本文以Hu, Lu, and Zhu（2013）之結論為主要參考：結合行為會使得結合企業的產品價格提升，增強結合廠商的市場能力。實際資料衡量的結合效果，本研究以 2009 年 1 月至 2011 年 11 月中國汽車 295 個車款的混合資料，運用自然實驗（Natural Experiment）法的差異中之差異法 （Difference in Difference，DID）分析 2009 年 11 月中國三家汽車公司發生結合對價格的影響效果。然而，由於結合模擬諸多的假設上以及未考量企業結合後的綜效，例如靜態模型估計設定、成本協同（Cost Synergy）效應、產品進行重新定位（Reposition）等，導致結合模擬預測結果與實際資料估計出之實證結果並不完全相符。 zh_TW dc.description.tableofcontents 第一章 前言 1 第一節 研究動機與目的 1 第二節 章節安排 3第二章 中國汽車工業發展概況 4第三章 文獻回顧 9 第一節 結合模擬相關文獻探討 9 第二節 汽車產業相關文獻探討 12 第三節 DID 方法相關文獻探討 13第四章 研究方法 15 第一節 實證模型 15 第二節 資料來源與變數說明 17第五章 實證分析 20 第一節 中國汽車結合前後的價格趨勢 20 第二節 DID 方法估計之價格效果 24第六章 結論 30參考文獻 31 zh_TW dc.format.extent 793652 bytes - dc.format.mimetype application/pdf - dc.language.iso en_US - dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0100255001 en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) 結合模擬 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 中國汽車產業 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 差異中之差異法 zh_TW dc.title (題名) 結合模擬效果之回顧分析—以中國汽車市場為例 zh_TW dc.title (題名) Retrospective Analysis of the Effect of Merger Simulation－An Example in China`s Auto Market en_US dc.type (資料類型) thesis en dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 中文部分：中國汽車工業協會汽車技術中心（2010），《2010年版中國汽車工業年鑑》，北京市：機械工業。中國汽車工業協會汽車技術中心（2011），《2011年版中國汽車工業年鑑》，北京市：機械工業。中國汽車工業協會汽車技術中心（2012），《2012年版中國汽車工業年鑑》，北京市：機械工業。平新喬和魏軍鋒（2001）,《中國汽車工業市場規模和企業數量》，北京大學中國經濟研究中心討論稿系列，編號：C2001007。胡偉民（2012），「結合模擬（merger simulation）與價格上漲壓力（UPP）之介紹與應用–以中國汽車和速食麵市場為例」，工作論文。夏樂生（1997），「中國大陸汽車工業發展現況—兼論台商赴大陸投資汽車產業情形」，《共黨問題研究》，23（4），54-70。路風、封凱棟（2005），《發展我國自主知識產權汽車工業的政策選擇》，北京：北京大學出版。英文部分：Angrist, J. D. & J.S. Pischke (2010), “The Credibility Revolution in Empirical Economics: How Better Research Design Is Taking the Con out of Econometrics.” Journal of Economic Perspectives, 24(2), 3-30.Ashenfelter, O. & D. Card (1985), “Using the Longitudinal Structure of Earnings to Estimate the Effect of Training Programs,” The Review of Economics and Statistics, 648-660.Ashenfelter, O. & D. Hosken (2008) , “The Effect of Mergers on Consumer Prices: Evidence from Five Selected Case Studies,” Working Paper, (No. w13859), National Bureau of Economic Research.Berry, S., J. Levinsohn & A. Pakes (1995), “Automobile Prices in Market Equilibrium,” Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 841-890.Bertrand, M., E. Duflo & S. Mullainathan (2004), “How Much Should We Trust Differences-in-Differences Estimates?” The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 119(1), 249-275.Bjornerstedt, J. & F. Verboven (2012), “Does Merger Simulation Work? A Natural Experiment in the Swedish Analgesics Market,” Katholieke Universiteit Leuven Discussion Paper Series, 12.Budzinski, O. & I. Ruhmer (2010), “Merger Simulation in Competition Policy: A Survey,” Journal of Competition Law and Economics, 6(2), 277-319.Card, D. & A. B. Krueger (1994), “Minimum Wages and Employment: A Case Study of the Fast-Food Industry in New Jersey and Pennsylvania,” American Economic Review, 84(4), 772-93.Donohue, J. & S. D. Levitt (2001), “The impact of legalized abortion on crime,” Quarterly Journal of Economics, 116(2), 379-420.Eissa, N. (1995), “Taxation and Labor Supply of Married Women: The Tax Reform Act of 1986 as a Natural Experiment,” National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper, 5023.Eissa, N. & J. B. Liebman (1996), “Labor supply response to the earned income tax credit,” The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 111(2), 605-637.Ellwood, D. T. (2000), “The Impact of the Earned Income Tax Credit and Social Policy Reforms on Work, Marriage, and Living Arrangements,” National Tax Journal, 53(4), 1063-1106.Epstein, R. J. & D. L. Rubinfeld (2002), “Merger simulation: A simplified approach with new applications,” Antitrust Law Journal, 69(3), 883-919.Farrell, J. & C. Shapiro (1990), “Horizontal Mergers: An Equilibrium Analysis,” The American Economic Review, 107-126.Focarelli, D. & F. Panetta (2003), “Are Mergers Beneficial to Consumers? Evidence from the Market for Bank Deposits,” American Economic Review, 1152-1172.Goldberg, P. K. (1995), “Product Differentiation and Oligopoly in International Markets: The Case of the US Automobile Industry,” Econometrica, 63(4), 891-951.Hausman, J., G. Leonard & J. D. Zona (1994), “Competitive Analysis with Differenciated Products,” Annales d`Economie et de Statistique, 159-180.Holweg, M., J. Luo & N. Oliver (2009), “The Past, Present and Future of China`s Automotive Industry: A Value Chain Perspective,” International Journal of Technological Learning, Innovation and Development, 2(1), 76-118.Hu, W., Z. Lu & D. Zhu (2013), “Demand Estimation of the Chinese New Car Market: a BLP Estimation with Incomplete Price Data,” Working Paper.Hu, W., J. Xiao & X. Zhou (2011), “Corporate Group and Inter-firm Relationship of Chinese Passenger-vehicle Industry,” Working Paper.Mariuzzo, F. (2005), “The Effect of Differences in Buyer and Non-Buyer Characteristics on Equilibrium Price-Elasticities: An Empirical Study on the Italian Automobile Market,” Working Paper, (No. 2000513). Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.Molnar, J. (2008), “Market Power and Merger Simulation in Retail Banking,” Bank of Finland Research Discussion Paper, (No. 4).Nevo, A. (2000), “Mergers with Differentiated Products: The Case of the Ready-to-Eat Cereal Industry,” The RAND Journal of Economics, 395-421.Nevo, A. & M. D. Whinston (2010), “Taking the Dogma Out of Econometrics: Structural Modeling and Credible Inference,” The Journal of Economic Perspectives, 24(2), 69-81.Peters, C. (2006), “Evaluating the Performance of Merger Simulation: Evidence from the US Airline Industry,” Journal of Law and Economics, 49(2), 627-649.Petrin, A. (2002), “Quantifying the Benefits of New Products: The Case of the Minivan,” Journal of Political Economy, 110(4), 705-729.Weinberg, M. C. (2011), “More Evidence on the Performance of Merger Simulations,” The American Economic Review, 101(3), 51-55.Weinberg, M. C. & D. Hosken (2008), “Using Mergers to Test a Model of Oligopoly,” Working Paper.Werden, G. J. & L. M. Froeb (1994), “The Effects of Mergers in Differentiated Products Industries: Logit Demand and Merger Policy,” Journal of Law Economics and Organization, 10(2), 407-407. zh_TW
