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題名 小區域人口遷徙推估研究
A Study of Migration Projection for Small Area Population作者 黃亭綺
Huang Ting-Chi貢獻者 余清祥<br>蔡紋琦
黃亭綺
Huang Ting-Chi關鍵詞 小區域人口推估
遷徙
人口變動要素合成法
區塊拔靴法
電腦模擬
Small Area Projection
Internal Migration
Cohort Component Method
Block Bootstrap
Computer Simulation日期 2012 上傳時間 2-Sep-2013 15:36:43 (UTC+8) 摘要 國家政策之制定須配合未來人口總數及其結構等特性，藉以達到提高國民福祉的願景，因此各國均定期公佈人口推估(Population Projection)的結果，目前臺灣官方人口推估為每兩年公布一次。人口推估主要考量三個要素：出生、死亡、遷移，以國家層級而言，通常遷徙對未來人口的影響遠小於出生與死亡，所以過去行政院經濟建設委員會的官方全國人口推估一般專注於出生與死亡。然而，各國研究發現遷徙是小區域人口推估為最重要的因素，人口數愈少、影響程度有愈大的傾向，但文獻中較缺乏臺灣內部遷移的研究。如能掌握臺灣小區域人口遷徙的變遷，將能使政策因地制宜，有助地方政府提高推行政策的有效性，也是本研究之目標。由於缺乏完整的縣市、鄉鎮市區層級的詳細遷移資料，本研究以人口平衡公式反推淨遷移人數，找出各地區的遷移特性後，代入人口變動要素合成法(Cohort Component Method)，搭配屬於機率推估的區塊拔靴法(Block Bootstrap)，推估小區域的未來人口。關於出生及死亡的推估，過去研究發現使用區塊拔靴法用於小區域的生育率（曹育欣，2012）及死亡率（金碩，2011），皆有不錯的推估結果。本研究以臺北市為範例，討論區塊拔靴法在小區域遷徙人口數、年齡別遷徙人口的推估效果，及是否適合運用在其他不同縣市。
The population projection is used to provide information for the policy planning of governments. In Taiwan, the Council for Economic Planning and Development is in charge of the official population projection and it release projection results every two years. Basically, three factors are considered in population projection: birth, death, and migration. Since the migration has little impacts in country-level projection, many countries (including Taiwan) assume the future migration is zero or close to zero, and the focus of projection is usually on the birth and death. However, for the projection of small area (such as county- or township-level), past studies found that the effect of migration cannot be ignored. But, partly due to the limitation of migration data, there are not many studies explore the migration patterns of counties or townships in Taiwan.In this study, we use the population records (births and deaths) and the population equation to derive the county-level records of internal migration in Taiwan. We use these data to explore the migration patterns of all counties in Taiwan, and then applying block bootstrap method to modify the county-level population projection. Note that, the block bootstrap is shown to be reliable in forecasting fertility (Tsao, 2012) and mortality (Jin, 2011) for small areas. In this study, we also use the Taipei City to demonstrate the population projection which includes the internal migration, and the result is promising.參考文獻 中文部分吳欣修(1993)。城鄉人口遷移型態之研究。國立成功大學都市計畫研究所碩士論文。金碩(2011)。修勻與小區域人口之研究。國立政治大學統計學研究所碩士論文。柯文勝(2001)。都會區內非核心都市遷入人口之研究－以臺南縣永康市為例。彰化師範大學地理學系碩士論文。洪嘉瑜與銀慶貞(2008)。臺灣人口遷移屬性與動機的變化。東吳經濟商學學報，61:31-66。孫得雄與張明正(1989)。人口學與家庭計畫。臺北：國立空中大學。張慈佳(2010)。區域間人口遷移行為的性別差異:女性受限於性別角色的代價。人口變遷與社會發展聯合研討會。曹郁欣(2012)。小區域生育率與人口推計研究。國立政治大學統計學系碩士論文。許道欣(1982)。人口遷移決策及影響因素—臺灣地區人口內部遷移之研究。中興大學都市計畫研究所碩士論文。郭孟坤與余清祥(2007)。電腦模擬，隨機方法與人口推估的實證研究。人口學刊，36:67-98。陳信木與林佳瑩(2010)。臺灣生育率變遷對於人口成長的慣性作用。人口學刊，40:1-39。陳順宇(2005)。多變量分析。臺北：華泰出版。陳肇男(1990)。臺灣地區各類型之選擇性與差異性。人口學刊，13:43-57。陳寬政與廖正宏(1984)。人口遷移與就業。人口學刊，7:107-128。彭建文、吳文傑與龔書玉（2009）。縣市內部人口遷徙影響因素分析。人口學刊，39:85-118。溫素雲(1978)。臺灣南區區域人口遷移與區域發展之研究。文化大學政治研究所碩士論文。廖正宏(1985)。人口遷移。臺北：三民書局。廖正宏(1987)。臺灣地區人口遷移研究方向。臺灣地區人口遷移分布與區域發展研討會論文集，臺北：中國人口學會。廖怡萍(1997)。臺北基隆都會區人口遷移類型分析。政治大學社會系碩士論文。大學地政研究所碩士論文。蔡宏進(1978)。臺灣的發展政策及島內人口移動。人口學刊，3:27-58。鄭彩夷(1985)。臺中都會區的人口分布及其變遷之研究。東海大學社會學研究所碩士論文。薛立敏、李中文與曾喜鵬(2003)。臺灣地區人口遷移、及其與就業市場、住宅市場關係之實證研究。都市與計畫，30(1):37-61。薛立敏、曾喜鵬與陳雅君(2002)。區域間人口遷入臺北都會區地點選擇之實證研究。住宅學報，11(2):159-178。薛立敏、曾喜鵬與謝鈺偉(2007)。臺灣地區近年來遷移行為變化之影響因素分析—家戶遷移決策與遷移地點選擇之聯合估計。人口學刊，34:69-107。謝高橋(1981)。都市人口遷移與社會適應-高雄市個案研究。臺北：巨流圖書。謝高橋與張清富(1997)。城鄉連結－遷移人口的特性與適應。臺灣的都市社會，臺北：巨流出版。英文部分Alho, J.M. and Spencer, B.D. (2006), Statistical demography and forecasting, Springer, New York.Alonso, A. M. and Peña, D. (2003),“On sieve bootstrap prediction intervals”, Statistics and Probability Letters, 65(1): 13-20.Bühlmann., P. (2002),“Bootstraps for time series”, Statistical Science, 17(1), 52-72.Cannan, E. (1895),“The probability of a cessation of the growth of population in England and Wales during the next century”, The Economic Journal, 5(20): 505-515.Denton, F.T., Feaver, C.H., and Spencer, B.G. (2005),“Time Series Analysis andStochastic Forecasting: An Econometric Study of Mortality and LifeExpectancy”, Journal of Population Economics, 18: 203-227.Greenwood, M. J. (1985),“Human Migration: Theory, Models, and Empirical Studies”, Journal of Regional Science, 25: 521-44.Hall, P. (1985),“Resampling a Coverage Pattern”, Stochastic Processes Applications, 20: 231-246.Künsch, H.R. (1989),“The Jackknife and the Bootstrap for General Stationary Observations”, The Annuals of Statistics, 17: 1217-1261.Lee, E.S. (1966),“A Theory of Migration”, Demography, 3: 47-57.Lee, R.D. and S. Tuljapurkar (1994),“Stochastic Population Forecasts for the United States: Beyond High, Medium and Low”, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 89: 1175-1189.Leslie P. H. (1945), On the use of matrices in certain population dynamics. Biometrika, 33: 183–212.Lutz, W., Sanderson, W.C., and Scherbov, S. (1998), “Expert-based probabilistic population projections”, Population and Development Review, 24: 139-155.Rao, J.N.K. (2003), Small area estimation, John Wiley and Sons Inc.Rogers, A. (1988),“Age patterns of elderly migration: an international comparison”, Demography, 25(3): 355-370.Sanderson, W.C., Scherbov, S., O’Neill, B.C. and Lutz, W. (2004),“Conditional probabilistic population forecasting”, International Statistical Review, 72(2): 157-166.Smith, S. K. and Sincich, T. (1990), “The relationship between the length of the base period and population forecast errors”, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 85: 367-375.Smith, S. K. (1987),“Tests of forecast accuracy and bias for county population projections”, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 82(400): 991-1003.Stoto, M. A. (1983),“The accuracy of population projections”, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 78: 13-20.Whelpton, P. (1928), “Population of the United States, 1925 to 1975 ”, American Journal of Sociology, 34: 253-270. 描述 碩士
國立政治大學
統計研究所
100354016
101資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0100354016 資料類型 thesis dc.contributor.advisor 余清祥<br>蔡紋琦 zh_TW dc.contributor.author (Authors) 黃亭綺 zh_TW dc.contributor.author (Authors) Huang Ting-Chi en_US dc.creator (作者) 黃亭綺 zh_TW dc.creator (作者) Huang Ting-Chi en_US dc.date (日期) 2012 en_US dc.date.accessioned 2-Sep-2013 15:36:43 (UTC+8) - dc.date.available 2-Sep-2013 15:36:43 (UTC+8) - dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 2-Sep-2013 15:36:43 (UTC+8) - dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0100354016 en_US dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/59287 - dc.description (描述) 碩士 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 統計研究所 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 100354016 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 101 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) 國家政策之制定須配合未來人口總數及其結構等特性，藉以達到提高國民福祉的願景，因此各國均定期公佈人口推估(Population Projection)的結果，目前臺灣官方人口推估為每兩年公布一次。人口推估主要考量三個要素：出生、死亡、遷移，以國家層級而言，通常遷徙對未來人口的影響遠小於出生與死亡，所以過去行政院經濟建設委員會的官方全國人口推估一般專注於出生與死亡。然而，各國研究發現遷徙是小區域人口推估為最重要的因素，人口數愈少、影響程度有愈大的傾向，但文獻中較缺乏臺灣內部遷移的研究。如能掌握臺灣小區域人口遷徙的變遷，將能使政策因地制宜，有助地方政府提高推行政策的有效性，也是本研究之目標。由於缺乏完整的縣市、鄉鎮市區層級的詳細遷移資料，本研究以人口平衡公式反推淨遷移人數，找出各地區的遷移特性後，代入人口變動要素合成法(Cohort Component Method)，搭配屬於機率推估的區塊拔靴法(Block Bootstrap)，推估小區域的未來人口。關於出生及死亡的推估，過去研究發現使用區塊拔靴法用於小區域的生育率（曹育欣，2012）及死亡率（金碩，2011），皆有不錯的推估結果。本研究以臺北市為範例，討論區塊拔靴法在小區域遷徙人口數、年齡別遷徙人口的推估效果，及是否適合運用在其他不同縣市。 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) The population projection is used to provide information for the policy planning of governments. In Taiwan, the Council for Economic Planning and Development is in charge of the official population projection and it release projection results every two years. Basically, three factors are considered in population projection: birth, death, and migration. Since the migration has little impacts in country-level projection, many countries (including Taiwan) assume the future migration is zero or close to zero, and the focus of projection is usually on the birth and death. However, for the projection of small area (such as county- or township-level), past studies found that the effect of migration cannot be ignored. But, partly due to the limitation of migration data, there are not many studies explore the migration patterns of counties or townships in Taiwan.In this study, we use the population records (births and deaths) and the population equation to derive the county-level records of internal migration in Taiwan. We use these data to explore the migration patterns of all counties in Taiwan, and then applying block bootstrap method to modify the county-level population projection. Note that, the block bootstrap is shown to be reliable in forecasting fertility (Tsao, 2012) and mortality (Jin, 2011) for small areas. In this study, we also use the Taipei City to demonstrate the population projection which includes the internal migration, and the result is promising. en_US dc.description.tableofcontents 中文摘要....................I英文摘要....................II目錄....................III表目錄....................V圖目錄........................................VI第一章、緒論....................1第一節、研究動機....................1第二節、研究背景....................2第三節、研究目的....................4第二章、文獻回顧....................6第一節、人口推估方法....................6第二節、人口變動要素合成法....................7第三節、機率人口推估....................10第四節、區塊拔靴法....................11第三章、臺灣地區人口遷徙因素與遷徙概況....................14第一節、遷徙行為概述....................15第二節、臺灣地區目前遷徙概況....................20第四章、研究方法與模擬....................35第一節、資料介紹....................35第二節、研究方法....................36第三節、實證模擬研究....................37第五章、結論與建議....................53第一節、結論....................53第二節、討論與建議....................55參考文獻....................57 zh_TW dc.format.extent 1551248 bytes - dc.format.mimetype application/pdf - dc.language.iso en_US - dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0100354016 en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) 小區域人口推估 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 遷徙 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 人口變動要素合成法 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 區塊拔靴法 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 電腦模擬 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) Small Area Projection en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Internal Migration en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Cohort Component Method en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Block Bootstrap en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Computer Simulation en_US dc.title (題名) 小區域人口遷徙推估研究 zh_TW dc.title (題名) A Study of Migration Projection for Small Area Population en_US dc.type (資料類型) thesis en dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 中文部分吳欣修(1993)。城鄉人口遷移型態之研究。國立成功大學都市計畫研究所碩士論文。金碩(2011)。修勻與小區域人口之研究。國立政治大學統計學研究所碩士論文。柯文勝(2001)。都會區內非核心都市遷入人口之研究－以臺南縣永康市為例。彰化師範大學地理學系碩士論文。洪嘉瑜與銀慶貞(2008)。臺灣人口遷移屬性與動機的變化。東吳經濟商學學報，61:31-66。孫得雄與張明正(1989)。人口學與家庭計畫。臺北：國立空中大學。張慈佳(2010)。區域間人口遷移行為的性別差異:女性受限於性別角色的代價。人口變遷與社會發展聯合研討會。曹郁欣(2012)。小區域生育率與人口推計研究。國立政治大學統計學系碩士論文。許道欣(1982)。人口遷移決策及影響因素—臺灣地區人口內部遷移之研究。中興大學都市計畫研究所碩士論文。郭孟坤與余清祥(2007)。電腦模擬，隨機方法與人口推估的實證研究。人口學刊，36:67-98。陳信木與林佳瑩(2010)。臺灣生育率變遷對於人口成長的慣性作用。人口學刊，40:1-39。陳順宇(2005)。多變量分析。臺北：華泰出版。陳肇男(1990)。臺灣地區各類型之選擇性與差異性。人口學刊，13:43-57。陳寬政與廖正宏(1984)。人口遷移與就業。人口學刊，7:107-128。彭建文、吳文傑與龔書玉（2009）。縣市內部人口遷徙影響因素分析。人口學刊，39:85-118。溫素雲(1978)。臺灣南區區域人口遷移與區域發展之研究。文化大學政治研究所碩士論文。廖正宏(1985)。人口遷移。臺北：三民書局。廖正宏(1987)。臺灣地區人口遷移研究方向。臺灣地區人口遷移分布與區域發展研討會論文集，臺北：中國人口學會。廖怡萍(1997)。臺北基隆都會區人口遷移類型分析。政治大學社會系碩士論文。大學地政研究所碩士論文。蔡宏進(1978)。臺灣的發展政策及島內人口移動。人口學刊，3:27-58。鄭彩夷(1985)。臺中都會區的人口分布及其變遷之研究。東海大學社會學研究所碩士論文。薛立敏、李中文與曾喜鵬(2003)。臺灣地區人口遷移、及其與就業市場、住宅市場關係之實證研究。都市與計畫，30(1):37-61。薛立敏、曾喜鵬與陳雅君(2002)。區域間人口遷入臺北都會區地點選擇之實證研究。住宅學報，11(2):159-178。薛立敏、曾喜鵬與謝鈺偉(2007)。臺灣地區近年來遷移行為變化之影響因素分析—家戶遷移決策與遷移地點選擇之聯合估計。人口學刊，34:69-107。謝高橋(1981)。都市人口遷移與社會適應-高雄市個案研究。臺北：巨流圖書。謝高橋與張清富(1997)。城鄉連結－遷移人口的特性與適應。臺灣的都市社會，臺北：巨流出版。英文部分Alho, J.M. and Spencer, B.D. (2006), Statistical demography and forecasting, Springer, New York.Alonso, A. M. and Peña, D. (2003),“On sieve bootstrap prediction intervals”, Statistics and Probability Letters, 65(1): 13-20.Bühlmann., P. (2002),“Bootstraps for time series”, Statistical Science, 17(1), 52-72.Cannan, E. (1895),“The probability of a cessation of the growth of population in England and Wales during the next century”, The Economic Journal, 5(20): 505-515.Denton, F.T., Feaver, C.H., and Spencer, B.G. (2005),“Time Series Analysis andStochastic Forecasting: An Econometric Study of Mortality and LifeExpectancy”, Journal of Population Economics, 18: 203-227.Greenwood, M. J. (1985),“Human Migration: Theory, Models, and Empirical Studies”, Journal of Regional Science, 25: 521-44.Hall, P. (1985),“Resampling a Coverage Pattern”, Stochastic Processes Applications, 20: 231-246.Künsch, H.R. (1989),“The Jackknife and the Bootstrap for General Stationary Observations”, The Annuals of Statistics, 17: 1217-1261.Lee, E.S. (1966),“A Theory of Migration”, Demography, 3: 47-57.Lee, R.D. and S. Tuljapurkar (1994),“Stochastic Population Forecasts for the United States: Beyond High, Medium and Low”, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 89: 1175-1189.Leslie P. H. (1945), On the use of matrices in certain population dynamics. Biometrika, 33: 183–212.Lutz, W., Sanderson, W.C., and Scherbov, S. (1998), “Expert-based probabilistic population projections”, Population and Development Review, 24: 139-155.Rao, J.N.K. (2003), Small area estimation, John Wiley and Sons Inc.Rogers, A. (1988),“Age patterns of elderly migration: an international comparison”, Demography, 25(3): 355-370.Sanderson, W.C., Scherbov, S., O’Neill, B.C. and Lutz, W. (2004),“Conditional probabilistic population forecasting”, International Statistical Review, 72(2): 157-166.Smith, S. K. and Sincich, T. (1990), “The relationship between the length of the base period and population forecast errors”, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 85: 367-375.Smith, S. K. (1987),“Tests of forecast accuracy and bias for county population projections”, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 82(400): 991-1003.Stoto, M. A. (1983),“The accuracy of population projections”, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 78: 13-20.Whelpton, P. (1928), “Population of the United States, 1925 to 1975 ”, American Journal of Sociology, 34: 253-270. zh_TW
