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題名 供應鏈風險評估模式建立之研究-以資訊電子產業為例
The Research on Developing a Risk Assessment Model - using Information and Electronics Industry as an example
作者 陳有慶
貢獻者 林我聰
陳有慶
關鍵詞 供應鏈風險管理
模糊理論
失效模式與效應分析法
決策實驗室分析法
分析網路程序法
Supply Chain Risk Management
Fuzzy Theory
FMEA
DEMATEL
ANP
日期 2012
上傳時間 2-Sep-2013 16:02:06 (UTC+8)
摘要 產業分工與全球化因素影響，使企業與顧客、供應商分布在不同國家與地區，形成一個複雜與全球化的供應鏈網路，並導致整體供應鏈的風險大幅提升。企業如何做好供應鏈風險評估，已是目前聚焦的研究重點。那整體供應鏈流程包含採購、製造、配銷與回收階段，然而先前供應鏈風險管理研究上，大部分著重於單一階段進行討論，缺乏以整個供應鏈網路模式來進行研究，且假設風險因子之間為獨立、互不關連，也並未考慮整體供應鏈網路風險因子關聯特性，因而無法正確評估風險事件發生時所帶來的衝擊影響程度，自然無法進一步有效擬定出適當因應的風險管理策略。因此，本研究將針對「如何有效評估供應鏈風險程度」主要問題進行研究。
     那針對此問題來進行研究，本研究提出一個整體供應鏈風險評估模式以有效評估供應鏈的風險程度。首先透過文獻探討確認整理出供應鏈的風險因子，並以SCOR模式（Supply Chain Operations Reference Model）的將風險因子歸類於採購（Source）、製造 (Make)、配銷（Deliver）與回收（Return）各階段內；接著藉由風險因子的發生率、嚴重度、難檢度，應用模糊失效模式與效應分析法(Fuzzy Failure Modes and Effects Analysis；Fuzzy FMEA)篩選出重要的風險因子；再使用模糊決策實驗室分析法(Fuzzy Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory；Fuzzy DEMATEL)建構出供應鏈流程中重要的風險因子間之關連性；由於風險因子間具有相互影響關係，本研究並採用分析網路程序法(Analytic Network Process；ANP)計算風險因子的影響權重。最後結合上述Fuzzy FMEA、Fuzzy DEMATEL與ANP方法，建立出整體供應鏈風險評估模式，並就由計算出風險因子對企業供應鏈的影響度，排列出風險因子的影響度大小，讓企業能夠知道風險因子的優先順序。這將協助企業有效進行供應鏈風險的評估，讓企業瞭解目前所處供應鏈潛在的風險，並據以研擬相關的因應策略，以降低其對供應鏈整體與成員的衝擊。
As part of the division of labor and globalization, enterprises, customers and suppliers are located in various countries and regions. Complex, globalized supply chain network have greatly increased total supply chain risks. Therefore, improving the management of risk associated with the supply chain has become important to many enterprises. And whole supply chain have include four stage, source, make, deliver and return, but previous supply chain risk management research has focused mainly on single-stage risk factors and assumed all risk factors to be mutually as independent and also not consider the whole supply chain risk factors associated characteristics. The lack of consideration for these relationships will lead to incorrect measuring risks and applying improper risk management strategies to solve these risks. Therefore this research concentrates on a topic: How to effectively assess risks.
      About the main issue, this research will propose an effectively risk assessment model. First, the research will consider whole supply chain risk factors from literature and then classify these factors into source stage’s factors, make stage’s factors, deliver stage’s factors and return stage’s factors in accordance with SCOR Model (Supply Chain Operations Reference Model) framework. Second, Fuzzy Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (Fuzzy FMEA), Fuzzy Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (Fuzzy DEMATEL) and Analytic Network Process (ANP) will be adopted and integrated to develop a supply chain risk assessment model.
      The results in this research will enable enterprises to determine in timely manner the effects of various risk events, enabling them to develop strategies to reduce their effect on the all members of the supply chain.
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     中文部份
     [1] 小野寺勝重，民90，實踐FMEA手法，張書文譯，台北：長榮國際股份有限公司。
     [2] 孫宗瀛、楊英魁，民94，Fuzzy控制：理論、實作與理論，台北：全華圖書股份有限公司。
     [3] Lin, C. J. and Wu W. W., A fuzzy extension of the DEMATEL method for group decision making, 第一屆作業研究學會學術研討會論文集，2004，台灣，台北科技大學。
     [4] 胡雪琴，民92，企業問題複雜度之探討及量化研究-以DEMATEL為分析工具，私立中原大學企業管理研究所碩士論文。
     [5] 林宗明，民94，管理問題因果複雜度分析模式建立之研究-以DEMATEL為方法論，私立中原大學企業管理研究所碩士論文。
     [6] 紀岱玲，民94，供應商績效評估研究－結合ANP及DEMATEL之應用，國立政治大學資訊管理學系研究所碩士論文。
     [7] 林盈君，民97，綠色供應鏈中風險評估之研究-以國內某主機板廠商為例，國立政治大學資訊管理學系研究所碩士論文。
     [8] 李佳芳，民97，綠色供應鏈中供應商評選之研究，國立政治大學資訊管理學系研究所碩士論文。
     [9] 張瓊云，民99，建構信任模型探討合作夥伴間資訊分享之意願，國立政治大學資訊管理學系研究所碩士論文。
     [10] 謝長宏，民69，系統動態學-理論．方法與應用，台北：中興管理顧問公司。
     [11] 陳璟鴻，民96，紡織業全球運籌績效指標架構，國立政治大學資訊管理學系研究所碩士論文。
     [12] 潘俊宏，民94，一衡量供應鏈績效之整合性架構，國立中央大學工業管理研究所碩士論文。
描述 碩士
國立政治大學
資訊管理研究所
100356038
101
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0100356038
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 林我聰zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) 陳有慶zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) 陳有慶zh_TW
dc.date (日期) 2012en_US
dc.date.accessioned 2-Sep-2013 16:02:06 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 2-Sep-2013 16:02:06 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 2-Sep-2013 16:02:06 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0100356038en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/59301-
dc.description (描述) 碩士zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 資訊管理研究所zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 100356038zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 101zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) 產業分工與全球化因素影響，使企業與顧客、供應商分布在不同國家與地區，形成一個複雜與全球化的供應鏈網路，並導致整體供應鏈的風險大幅提升。企業如何做好供應鏈風險評估，已是目前聚焦的研究重點。那整體供應鏈流程包含採購、製造、配銷與回收階段，然而先前供應鏈風險管理研究上，大部分著重於單一階段進行討論，缺乏以整個供應鏈網路模式來進行研究，且假設風險因子之間為獨立、互不關連，也並未考慮整體供應鏈網路風險因子關聯特性，因而無法正確評估風險事件發生時所帶來的衝擊影響程度，自然無法進一步有效擬定出適當因應的風險管理策略。因此，本研究將針對「如何有效評估供應鏈風險程度」主要問題進行研究。
     那針對此問題來進行研究，本研究提出一個整體供應鏈風險評估模式以有效評估供應鏈的風險程度。首先透過文獻探討確認整理出供應鏈的風險因子，並以SCOR模式（Supply Chain Operations Reference Model）的將風險因子歸類於採購（Source）、製造 (Make)、配銷（Deliver）與回收（Return）各階段內；接著藉由風險因子的發生率、嚴重度、難檢度，應用模糊失效模式與效應分析法(Fuzzy Failure Modes and Effects Analysis；Fuzzy FMEA)篩選出重要的風險因子；再使用模糊決策實驗室分析法(Fuzzy Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory；Fuzzy DEMATEL)建構出供應鏈流程中重要的風險因子間之關連性；由於風險因子間具有相互影響關係，本研究並採用分析網路程序法(Analytic Network Process；ANP)計算風險因子的影響權重。最後結合上述Fuzzy FMEA、Fuzzy DEMATEL與ANP方法，建立出整體供應鏈風險評估模式，並就由計算出風險因子對企業供應鏈的影響度，排列出風險因子的影響度大小，讓企業能夠知道風險因子的優先順序。這將協助企業有效進行供應鏈風險的評估，讓企業瞭解目前所處供應鏈潛在的風險，並據以研擬相關的因應策略，以降低其對供應鏈整體與成員的衝擊。		zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) As part of the division of labor and globalization, enterprises, customers and suppliers are located in various countries and regions. Complex, globalized supply chain network have greatly increased total supply chain risks. Therefore, improving the management of risk associated with the supply chain has become important to many enterprises. And whole supply chain have include four stage, source, make, deliver and return, but previous supply chain risk management research has focused mainly on single-stage risk factors and assumed all risk factors to be mutually as independent and also not consider the whole supply chain risk factors associated characteristics. The lack of consideration for these relationships will lead to incorrect measuring risks and applying improper risk management strategies to solve these risks. Therefore this research concentrates on a topic: How to effectively assess risks.
      About the main issue, this research will propose an effectively risk assessment model. First, the research will consider whole supply chain risk factors from literature and then classify these factors into source stage’s factors, make stage’s factors, deliver stage’s factors and return stage’s factors in accordance with SCOR Model (Supply Chain Operations Reference Model) framework. Second, Fuzzy Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (Fuzzy FMEA), Fuzzy Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (Fuzzy DEMATEL) and Analytic Network Process (ANP) will be adopted and integrated to develop a supply chain risk assessment model.
      The results in this research will enable enterprises to determine in timely manner the effects of various risk events, enabling them to develop strategies to reduce their effect on the all members of the supply chain.		en_US
dc.description.tableofcontents 第一章 緒論 1
     1.1 研究背景 1
     1.2 研究動機 2
     1.3 研究目的 3
     1.4 論文架構 3
     第二章 文獻探討 4
     2.1 供應鏈管理 4
     2.2 SCOR模式 5
     2.3 供應鏈風險管理 7
      2.3.1 供應鏈風險管理流程 9
      2.3.2 供應鏈風險因子分類 11
     2.4 失效模式和效果分析(Failure Mode & effects Analysis, FMEA) 15
     2.5 模糊理論(Fuzzy Theory) 18
     2.6 決策實驗分析法(Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory, DEMATEL) 20
      2.6.1 DEMATEL簡介與應用 20
      2.6.2 DEMATEL架構與運算步驟 20
     2.7 網路程序分析法(Analytic Network Process, ANP) 24
      2.7.1 ANP簡介與應用 24
      2.7.2 ANP架構與運算步驟 25
     第三章 研究方法 28
     3.1 研究流程與研究對象 28
      3.1.1 研究流程 28
      3.1.2 研究對象 30
     3.2 Fuzzy FMEA方法之篩選出供應鏈流程中重要的風險因子 30
     3.3 Fuzzy DEMATEL方法找出供應鏈風險因子的因果關係 33
     3.4 ANP方法決定風險因子之影響權重 38
     3.5 風險評估模式建立 44
     第四章 風險評估模式建立之範例 45
     4.1 供應鏈風險因子之確立與定義 45
     4.2 利用Fuzzy FMEA方法篩選出重要的供應鏈風險因子 45
     4.3 利用Fuzzy DEMATEL 方法找出重要風險因子間的因果關係 49
     4.4 利用ANP方法找出重要風險因子間的相對影響權重 53
     4.5 結合Fuzzy FMEA、Fuzzy DEMATEL方法建立供應鏈風險評估模式 57
     4.6 風險因子因果關係 58
     第五章 模式之模擬驗證 62
     5.1 模擬系統設計 62
      5.1.1 模擬假設 64
      5.1.2 模擬模型結構 64
     5.2 模擬過程與實驗設計 68
     5.3 模式之效度分析 70
     5.4 模擬之結果 72
     第六章 結論與建議 76
     6.1 研究結論 76
     6.2 未來研究方向 77
     參考文獻 78
     附錄A Fuzzy FMEA 問卷 83
     附錄B Fuzzy DEMATEL問卷 92
     附錄C ANP問卷 100
     附錄D 模擬中使用的參數與定義 108		zh_TW
dc.language.iso en_US-
dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0100356038en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 供應鏈風險管理zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 模糊理論zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 失效模式與效應分析法zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 決策實驗室分析法zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 分析網路程序法zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Supply Chain Risk Managementen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Fuzzy Theoryen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) FMEAen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) DEMATELen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) ANPen_US
dc.title (題名) 供應鏈風險評估模式建立之研究-以資訊電子產業為例zh_TW
dc.title (題名) The Research on Developing a Risk Assessment Model - using Information and Electronics Industry as an exampleen_US
dc.type (資料類型) thesisen
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 英文部份
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