Publications-Theses
Article View/Open
Publication Export
Google ScholarTM
NCCU Library
Citation Infomation
Related Publications in TAIR
| Title | 外匯利差投資組合之技術分析策略 Technical Analysis Strategy of Exchange Rates Portfolio |
| Creator | 劉偉成 |
| Contributor | 林建秀 劉偉成 |
| Key Words | 利差交易 相對績效指數 技術分析 |
| Date | 2012 |
| Date Issued | 2-Sep-2013 16:05:06 (UTC+8) |
| Summary | 自從金融海嘯過後，利差交易投資人蒙受了巨大的損失，利差交易已不再像過去一樣可以輕易的被利用來獲取超額報酬，本文主要針對各主要國家貨幣兌換美元的外匯匯率，組成各種不同的投資組合，將其匯率差異大小轉換成各種利率差高低的投資組合，去探討UIP (Uncovered Interest Rate Parity) 理論的違背及成立時點，並且引用相對績效指數和數種技術分析策略去切入其買賣時點，以期獲取超額報酬。 結果顯示，不管是針對哪一種相對績效指標投資組合，只要能夠選擇適當的技術分析方法，在適當的時機點買進或賣出，便能夠有效地勝過單純地買進持有的被動型投資方法。所以，當利差交易無法獲得顯著報酬時，我們可以改為運用技術分析來判斷買與賣的時機點以獲取較顯著之超額報酬。 |
| 參考文獻 | 賀蘭芝, 2007, “遠期匯率偏誤交易策略之績效分析,”中央銀行公務出國報告 Anker, P.,1999. “Uncovered Interest Parity, Monetary Policy and Time-varying Risk Premia.” Journal of International Monetary and Finance, 51 (1), 115–144. Backus, D.K., S. Foresi, and C.I. Telmer,2001.“Affine Term Structure Models and the Forward Premium Puzzle. ” Journal of Finance , 12, 503–23. Beine, M., Laurent, S., Lecourt, C., 2003. “ Official central bank interventions and exchange rate volatility: evidence from a regime-switching analysis. ” European Economic Review 47(5): 891-911. Chinn, M. and G. Meredith, 2004. “Monetary Policy and Long Horizon Uncovered Interest Parity, ” IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 51 No. 3, November, pp. 409-430. Chinn M. and G. Meredith , 1999 “Long-Horizon Uncovered Interest Parity,” NBER Working Papers. Fama, Eugene F. , 1984. “Forward and Spot Exchange Rates.” Journal of Monetary Economics,14:319–38. Fama, Eugene F.and French, Kenneth R. , 1993. “ Common Risk Factors in the Returns on Stocks and Bonds. ” Journal of Financial Economics 33 (1): 3–56. Giddy, I. and G. Dufey, 1975.“The Random Behaviour of Flexible Exchange Rates: Implications for Forecasting. ” Journal of International Business Studies, 54:1325–60. Giddy, I., 1976. “An Integrated Theory of Exchange Rate Equilibrium.” Journal of Financial and Quanti- tative Analysis,54:173–82. Hansen, L.P. and R.J. Hodrick , 1980. “ Forward Rates as Optimal Predictors of Future Spot Rates: An Econometric Analysis.” Journal of Political Economy,Vol. 88, pp. 829-53. Hau, H., and H. Rey, 2004. Can Portfolio Rebalancing Explain the Dynamics of Equity Returns, Equity Flows, and Exchange Rates?, The American Economic Review 94, 126-133. Ichiue, H., and K. Koyama, 2011. Regime Switches in Exchange Rate Volatility and Uncovered Interest Parity. Journal of International Money and Finance 30 (2011), 1436–1450. Jacob s., Robert E., 2011. “Trading Relative Performance with Alpha Indexes” working papers series. Kohlhagen, Steven., 1978. “The Behavior of Foreign Exchange Markets-A Critical Survey of the Empirical Literature. ” New York: New York University Monograph Series in Finance and Economics #3. Lustig, H., and A. Verdelhan, 2007. “ The Cross-section of Foreign Currency Risk Premia and Consumption Growth Risk. ”American Economic Review 97:89–117. Lustig.H, N. Roussanov, and A. Verdelhan, 2011. “ Common risk factors in currency markets.”Review of Financial Studies,24 (2011), pp. 3731–3777. Levich, Richard. ,1978. “On the Efficiency of Markets for Foreign Exchange.” International Economic Policy: An Assessment of Theory and Evidence. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins Press, Working paper series. Levich, Richard. ,1979. “Tests of Forecasting Models and Market Efficiency in the International Money Market.” Working paper series. McCallum, Bennett T., 1994. “ A Reconsideration of the Uncovered Interest Parity Relationship, ”Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 33 (February), pp. 105–32. Melvin, Michael, and Mark Taylor, 2009. “The crisis in the FX market,” Journal of International Money and Finance 28, 1317–1330. Szakmary, A.C., Mathur, I., 1997.“Central bank intervention and trading rule profits in foreign exchange markets. ” Journal of International Money and Finance,16,pp.513-535. |
| Description | 碩士 國立政治大學 金融研究所 100352017 101 |
| 資料來源 | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G100352017-1 |
| Type | thesis |
| dc.contributor.advisor | 林建秀 | zh_TW |
| dc.contributor.author (Authors) | 劉偉成 | zh_TW |
| dc.creator (作者) | 劉偉成 | zh_TW |
| dc.date (日期) | 2012 | en_US |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2-Sep-2013 16:05:06 (UTC+8) | - |
| dc.date.available | 2-Sep-2013 16:05:06 (UTC+8) | - |
| dc.date.issued (上傳時間) | 2-Sep-2013 16:05:06 (UTC+8) | - |
| dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) | G100352017-1 | en_US |
| dc.identifier.uri (URI) | http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/59313 | - |
| dc.description (描述) | 碩士 | zh_TW |
| dc.description (描述) | 國立政治大學 | zh_TW |
| dc.description (描述) | 金融研究所 | zh_TW |
| dc.description (描述) | 100352017 | zh_TW |
| dc.description (描述) | 101 | zh_TW |
| dc.description.abstract (摘要) | 自從金融海嘯過後，利差交易投資人蒙受了巨大的損失，利差交易已不再像過去一樣可以輕易的被利用來獲取超額報酬，本文主要針對各主要國家貨幣兌換美元的外匯匯率，組成各種不同的投資組合，將其匯率差異大小轉換成各種利率差高低的投資組合，去探討UIP (Uncovered Interest Rate Parity) 理論的違背及成立時點，並且引用相對績效指數和數種技術分析策略去切入其買賣時點，以期獲取超額報酬。 結果顯示，不管是針對哪一種相對績效指標投資組合，只要能夠選擇適當的技術分析方法，在適當的時機點買進或賣出，便能夠有效地勝過單純地買進持有的被動型投資方法。所以，當利差交易無法獲得顯著報酬時，我們可以改為運用技術分析來判斷買與賣的時機點以獲取較顯著之超額報酬。 | zh_TW |
| dc.description.tableofcontents | 目錄 I 圖目錄 II 表目錄 III 第一章 緒論 1 第一節 研究背景與動機 1 第二節 研究架構 5 第二章 利差交易策略介紹 7 第一節 利差交易說明 7 第二節 利差交易策略 8 第三章 文獻回顧 16 第一節 利差交易&違反UIP (Uncovered Interest Rate Parity) 16 第二節 技術分析 17 第四章 研究方法與步驟 20 第一節 相對績效指數 20 第二節 技術分析模型設定 22 第五章 實證結果與分析 27 第六章 結論與建議 40 第一節 結論 40 第二節 建議 41 參考文獻 42 | zh_TW |
| dc.format.extent | 1228921 bytes | - |
| dc.format.mimetype | application/pdf | - |
| dc.language.iso | en_US | - |
| dc.source.uri (資料來源) | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G100352017-1 | en_US |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | 利差交易 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | 相對績效指數 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | 技術分析 | zh_TW |
| dc.title (題名) | 外匯利差投資組合之技術分析策略 | zh_TW |
| dc.title (題名) | Technical Analysis Strategy of Exchange Rates Portfolio | en_US |
| dc.type (資料類型) | thesis | en |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | 賀蘭芝, 2007, “遠期匯率偏誤交易策略之績效分析,”中央銀行公務出國報告 Anker, P.,1999. “Uncovered Interest Parity, Monetary Policy and Time-varying Risk Premia.” Journal of International Monetary and Finance, 51 (1), 115–144. Backus, D.K., S. Foresi, and C.I. Telmer,2001.“Affine Term Structure Models and the Forward Premium Puzzle. ” Journal of Finance , 12, 503–23. Beine, M., Laurent, S., Lecourt, C., 2003. “ Official central bank interventions and exchange rate volatility: evidence from a regime-switching analysis. ” European Economic Review 47(5): 891-911. Chinn, M. and G. Meredith, 2004. “Monetary Policy and Long Horizon Uncovered Interest Parity, ” IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 51 No. 3, November, pp. 409-430. Chinn M. and G. Meredith , 1999 “Long-Horizon Uncovered Interest Parity,” NBER Working Papers. Fama, Eugene F. , 1984. “Forward and Spot Exchange Rates.” Journal of Monetary Economics,14:319–38. Fama, Eugene F.and French, Kenneth R. , 1993. “ Common Risk Factors in the Returns on Stocks and Bonds. ” Journal of Financial Economics 33 (1): 3–56. Giddy, I. and G. Dufey, 1975.“The Random Behaviour of Flexible Exchange Rates: Implications for Forecasting. ” Journal of International Business Studies, 54:1325–60. Giddy, I., 1976. “An Integrated Theory of Exchange Rate Equilibrium.” Journal of Financial and Quanti- tative Analysis,54:173–82. Hansen, L.P. and R.J. Hodrick , 1980. “ Forward Rates as Optimal Predictors of Future Spot Rates: An Econometric Analysis.” Journal of Political Economy,Vol. 88, pp. 829-53. Hau, H., and H. Rey, 2004. Can Portfolio Rebalancing Explain the Dynamics of Equity Returns, Equity Flows, and Exchange Rates?, The American Economic Review 94, 126-133. Ichiue, H., and K. Koyama, 2011. Regime Switches in Exchange Rate Volatility and Uncovered Interest Parity. Journal of International Money and Finance 30 (2011), 1436–1450. Jacob s., Robert E., 2011. “Trading Relative Performance with Alpha Indexes” working papers series. Kohlhagen, Steven., 1978. “The Behavior of Foreign Exchange Markets-A Critical Survey of the Empirical Literature. ” New York: New York University Monograph Series in Finance and Economics #3. Lustig, H., and A. Verdelhan, 2007. “ The Cross-section of Foreign Currency Risk Premia and Consumption Growth Risk. ”American Economic Review 97:89–117. Lustig.H, N. Roussanov, and A. Verdelhan, 2011. “ Common risk factors in currency markets.”Review of Financial Studies,24 (2011), pp. 3731–3777. Levich, Richard. ,1978. “On the Efficiency of Markets for Foreign Exchange.” International Economic Policy: An Assessment of Theory and Evidence. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins Press, Working paper series. Levich, Richard. ,1979. “Tests of Forecasting Models and Market Efficiency in the International Money Market.” Working paper series. McCallum, Bennett T., 1994. “ A Reconsideration of the Uncovered Interest Parity Relationship, ”Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 33 (February), pp. 105–32. Melvin, Michael, and Mark Taylor, 2009. “The crisis in the FX market,” Journal of International Money and Finance 28, 1317–1330. Szakmary, A.C., Mathur, I., 1997.“Central bank intervention and trading rule profits in foreign exchange markets. ” Journal of International Money and Finance,16,pp.513-535. | zh_TW |