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題名 台灣房價與少子化關係之探討
The relationship between housing price and low fertility rate in Taiwan.
作者 簡淑苹
貢獻者 林左裕<br>Tsoyu Calvin Lin
簡淑苹
關鍵詞 少子化
房價
共整合
向量誤差修正模型
向量自我回歸模型
Granger因果關係
Low fertility rate
Housing price
Cointegration
Vector Error Correction Model (VECM),
Vector Autoregression (VAR)
Granger Causality
日期 2013
上傳時間 2-Sep-2013 17:09:34 (UTC+8)
摘要 台灣近年來面臨決定性的人口轉型，並邁入少子高齡化社會。根據台灣內政部戶政司的資料顯示，台灣之育齡婦女總生育率(Total Fertility Rate)於西元2003年起皆低於1.3人，成為超低生育率(the lowest-low fertility)之國家。因此，政府目前已將少子化現象視為國家安全問題，極力鼓吹國民正視此議題，同時以生育補貼鼓勵國民生育。過去雖有文獻探討少子化之成因，卻多僅以論述形式從人口及社會的角度切入，鮮少自經濟的觀點來探討。然對於家庭的生育行為而言，經濟因素中生育成本的多寡應是導致少子化的主要因素，且本研究認為，總體經濟因素中的高房價更可能占了舉足輕重之角色。有鑑於此，本研究綜合社會及經濟的變數(房價指數、女性勞動參與比率、失業率、家戶所得年增率、物價指數年增率)以模型實證研究，運用共整合分析檢視影響少子化的因素，並以Granger因果關係檢定了解各變數與生育率之領先落後關係。
研究結果顯示生育率與房價及家戶所得年增率有共整合關係，亦即長期而言有顯著關係。而根據Granger因果關係檢定，生育率領先於房價與女性勞動參與率，但落後於失業率、女性勞動參與比率及消費者物價指數。本實證結果可提供為政策研擬之依據，以改善生育環境，例如住宅政策上的調整、稅負優惠、生育補貼等。未來期能提高台灣的生育率，進而調整人口結構，以增加國家競爭力。
Taiwan has been facing demographic transition in recent years, and turned into an ageing society with fewer children. The total fertility rate (TFR) of Taiwan has been lower than 1.3 children since 2003. From then on, Taiwan has become the lowest-low fertility country. Taiwan’s government regards this situation as a national security issue, and attempts to encourage fertility behavior by subsidy. In order to improve it, the academic researchers have sparked off numerous studies to investigate the underlying reasons affecting the fertility decision. Most of them address this issue from demographic and sociological perspectives, yet few studies emphasize from the economic viewpoints. However, the opportunity cost of raising children might be the main factor leading to low fertility rate. This study therefore integrates sociological and economic factors which are housing price index, female labor force participant rate, unemployment rate, household income growth rate, and consumer price index growth rate to investigate the low fertility rate by Cointegration test. Furthermore, this study also employs Granger Causality test to realize the lead-lag relation among the variables.
Results of this study present evidence that TFR is cointegrated with housing price and household income growth rate, i.e., TFR moves together with these two variables over the long horizon. According to Granger Causality test, TFR Granger causes housing price and female labor force participant; while TFR is Granger caused by unemployment rate, female labor force participant, and consumer price index growth rate. The results may provide suggestions to the policy makers, and improve the environment for enhancing fertility, such as the adjustment of housing policy, tax reduction, and fertility subsidy. In the long run, we expect to reshape the population structure gradually and increase the country’s competitiveness.
參考文獻 Chinese References

Peng, C.-W. & Tsai, I-C. (2012) , “Long- and Short-Term Influences of Homeownership Rates on Fertility Rates: An Application of the Panel Cointegration Model”, Journal of Population Studies, 44:57-86.

Lien, C.-Y. & Huang C.-W.(2009) , “The Exploration of the Effects of Changes in Population Structure toward Land Use Demand in Taiwan”, Minghsin Journal, 35(2):193-212.

English References

Annika, S. & Mulder, C. H. (2008), “Family dynamics and first-time homeownership”, Housing studies, 23(6), 917-933.
Bar, M. & Leukhina, O. (2010), “Demographic transition and industrial revolution: a macroeconomic investigation”, Review of Economic Dynamics, 13(2): 424-451.

Enders, W. (2004), Applies Economic Time Series, New York: John Willey & Sons, Inc.

Freedman, R. (1995), “Asia’s recent fertility decline and prospects for future demographic change”, Asia-Pacific Population Research Reports, 1.

Giannelli, G. C. & Monfardini, C. (2003), “Joint decisions on household membership and human capital accumulation of youths: The role of expected earnings and local markets”, Journal of Population Economics,16(2): 265-285.

Goldstein, J. R., Sobotka, T., & Jasilionienė, A. (2009), “The End of “Lowest-Low” Fertility”, Population & Development Review, 35(4): 663-699.

Hondroyiannis, G. (2010), “Fertility Determinants and Economic Uncertainty: An Assessment Using European Panel Data”, Journal of Family and Economic Issues , 31(1) : 33-50.

Hondroyiannis, G. & Papapetrou, E. (2002), “Demographic transition and economic growth: Empirical evidence from Greece”, Journal of PopulationEconomics, 15(2):221-242.

Huang J.-T., Kao A.-P., and Hung W.-C. (2006), “The Influence of College Tuition and Fees on Fertility Rate in Taiwan”, Journal of Family and Economic Issues 27(4): 626-642.

Hui, E. C. M., Zheng, X., & Hu, J. (2012), “Housing price, elderly dependency and fertility behaviour”, Habitat International, 36(2): 304-311.

Jovan Z., Daniel H.; Thomas L.(2010), “Low Fertility and Long-Run Growth in an Economy with a Large Public Sector”, European Journal of Population 26(2): 183-205.

Krishnan, V. & Krotki, K. J. (1993), “Life cycle effects on
home-ownership in Canada”, Housing Studies, 8(2): 120-127.

Kohler, H.-P., Billari, F. C., & Ortega, J. A.(2002), “ The emergence of lowest-low fertility in Europe during the 1990s”, Population and Development Review, 28(4): 641-680.

Levin, E., Montagnoli, A., & Wright, R. E. (2009), “Demographic change and the housing market: evidence from a comparison of Scotland and England”, Urban Studies, 46(1): 27-43.

Lo, K.-T. (2012), “The Crowding-out Effect of Homeownership on Fertility”, Journal of Family and Economic, 33(1): 108-117.

Lutz, W. and V. Skirbekk (2005), “Policies Addressing the Tempo Effect in Low-Fertility Countries’, Population & Development Review; 31(4):699-720.

Malmberg, B. (2010), “Low fertility and the housing market: evidence from Swedish regional data”, European Journal of Population, 26(2): 229-244.

McNown, R. and Rajbhandary, S. (2003), “Time series analysis of fertility and female labor market behavior”, Journal of Population Economics, 16(3): 501-523.

Murphy, K., Simon, C., & Tamura, R. (2008), “Fertility decline, baby boom, and economic growth”, Journal of Human Capital, 2(3): 262-302.

Mulder, C. (2006), “Home-ownership and family formation”, Journal of Housing and the Built EnvHIRonment, 21(3): 281-298.

Mulder, C. H. & Billari, F. C. (2010), “Homeownership regimes and low fertility”, Housing Studies, 25(4): 527-541.

Narayan, P. K. (2006), “Determinants of Female Fertility in Taiwan, 1966-2001: EmpHIRical Evidence from Cointegration and Variance Decomposition Analysis”, Asian Economic Journal, 20(4): 393-407.

Notestein F. W. (1945), “Population-The long view”, In Theodore W. Schultz (Ed.), Food for the World, Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 36-57.

Schultz, T. P. (2001), “The fertility transition: economic explanations”, Economic Growth Center Discussion, Paper No. 833.

Schultz, T. P. (2007), “Population policies, fertility, women’s human capital, and child quality”, Handbook of Development Economics, 4: 3249-3303.

Simon, C. J. & Tamura, R. (2009), “Do higher rents discourage fertility? Evidence from U.S. cities, 1940-2000”, Regional Science and Urban Economics, 39:33–42.

Wigniolle, B. (2002), “Fertility, intergenerational transfers and economic development”, The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, 11(3): 297-321.

Yakita, A. (2001), “Uncertain lifetime, fertility and social security”, Journal of Population Economics, 14(4): 635-640.

Yi, J. & Zhang, J. (2010), “The effect of house price on fertility evidence from Hong Kong”, Economic Inquiry, 48(3): 635-650.
描述 碩士
國立政治大學
地政研究所
100257022
102
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0100257022
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 林左裕<br>Tsoyu Calvin Linzh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) 簡淑苹zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) 簡淑苹zh_TW
dc.date (日期) 2013en_US
dc.date.accessioned 2-Sep-2013 17:09:34 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 2-Sep-2013 17:09:34 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 2-Sep-2013 17:09:34 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0100257022en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/59501-
dc.description (描述) 碩士zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 地政研究所zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 100257022zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 102zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) 台灣近年來面臨決定性的人口轉型，並邁入少子高齡化社會。根據台灣內政部戶政司的資料顯示，台灣之育齡婦女總生育率(Total Fertility Rate)於西元2003年起皆低於1.3人，成為超低生育率(the lowest-low fertility)之國家。因此，政府目前已將少子化現象視為國家安全問題，極力鼓吹國民正視此議題，同時以生育補貼鼓勵國民生育。過去雖有文獻探討少子化之成因，卻多僅以論述形式從人口及社會的角度切入，鮮少自經濟的觀點來探討。然對於家庭的生育行為而言，經濟因素中生育成本的多寡應是導致少子化的主要因素，且本研究認為，總體經濟因素中的高房價更可能占了舉足輕重之角色。有鑑於此，本研究綜合社會及經濟的變數(房價指數、女性勞動參與比率、失業率、家戶所得年增率、物價指數年增率)以模型實證研究，運用共整合分析檢視影響少子化的因素，並以Granger因果關係檢定了解各變數與生育率之領先落後關係。
研究結果顯示生育率與房價及家戶所得年增率有共整合關係，亦即長期而言有顯著關係。而根據Granger因果關係檢定，生育率領先於房價與女性勞動參與率，但落後於失業率、女性勞動參與比率及消費者物價指數。本實證結果可提供為政策研擬之依據，以改善生育環境，例如住宅政策上的調整、稅負優惠、生育補貼等。未來期能提高台灣的生育率，進而調整人口結構，以增加國家競爭力。		zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) Taiwan has been facing demographic transition in recent years, and turned into an ageing society with fewer children. The total fertility rate (TFR) of Taiwan has been lower than 1.3 children since 2003. From then on, Taiwan has become the lowest-low fertility country. Taiwan’s government regards this situation as a national security issue, and attempts to encourage fertility behavior by subsidy. In order to improve it, the academic researchers have sparked off numerous studies to investigate the underlying reasons affecting the fertility decision. Most of them address this issue from demographic and sociological perspectives, yet few studies emphasize from the economic viewpoints. However, the opportunity cost of raising children might be the main factor leading to low fertility rate. This study therefore integrates sociological and economic factors which are housing price index, female labor force participant rate, unemployment rate, household income growth rate, and consumer price index growth rate to investigate the low fertility rate by Cointegration test. Furthermore, this study also employs Granger Causality test to realize the lead-lag relation among the variables.
Results of this study present evidence that TFR is cointegrated with housing price and household income growth rate, i.e., TFR moves together with these two variables over the long horizon. According to Granger Causality test, TFR Granger causes housing price and female labor force participant; while TFR is Granger caused by unemployment rate, female labor force participant, and consumer price index growth rate. The results may provide suggestions to the policy makers, and improve the environment for enhancing fertility, such as the adjustment of housing policy, tax reduction, and fertility subsidy. In the long run, we expect to reshape the population structure gradually and increase the country’s competitiveness.		en_US
dc.description.tableofcontents Chapter 1 Introduction 9
1.1 General Background and Research Motivation 9
1.1.1 General Background 9
1.1.2 Research motivation 14
1.1.3 Research Purpose 15
1.2 Research Method and Scope 17
1.2.1 Research Method 17
1.2.2 Research Scope 17
1.3 Research Overview 18
1.3.1 Research Framework 18
1.3.2 Research Process 19
Chapter 2 Literature Review 20
2.1 The Exploration of “The Lowest-low Fertility” 20
2.2 Review of Low Fertility Rate Factors 22
2.3 The Relationship Between Housing Price and Low Fertility Rate 24
Chapter 3 Research Method and Data Information 27
3.1 Research Method 27
3.1.1 Cointegration 27
3.1.2 Granger Causality Test 28
3.2 Data Information 30
3.2.1 Variable Selection 30
3.2.2 Data Source 35
Chapter 4 Empirical Results 38
4.1 Structural Change 38
4.2 Unit-root Test 42
4.3 Cointegration Test 43
4.4 Vector Error Correction Model 50
4.5 Vector Autoregressive Model 53
4.6 Granger Causality Test 57
Chapter 5 Conclusions and Discussion ……59
5.1 Conclusions 59
5.2 Suggestions and Limitations 61
References ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….62		zh_TW
dc.format.extent 1590114 bytes-
dc.format.mimetype application/pdf-
dc.language.iso en_US-
dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0100257022en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 少子化zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 房價zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 共整合zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 向量誤差修正模型zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 向量自我回歸模型zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Granger因果關係zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Low fertility rateen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Housing priceen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Cointegrationen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Vector Error Correction Model (VECM),en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Vector Autoregression (VAR)en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Granger Causalityen_US
dc.title (題名) 台灣房價與少子化關係之探討zh_TW
dc.title (題名) The relationship between housing price and low fertility rate in Taiwan.en_US
dc.type (資料類型) thesisen
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Chinese References

Peng, C.-W. & Tsai, I-C. (2012) , “Long- and Short-Term Influences of Homeownership Rates on Fertility Rates: An Application of the Panel Cointegration Model”, Journal of Population Studies, 44:57-86.

Lien, C.-Y. & Huang C.-W.(2009) , “The Exploration of the Effects of Changes in Population Structure toward Land Use Demand in Taiwan”, Minghsin Journal, 35(2):193-212.

English References

Annika, S. & Mulder, C. H. (2008), “Family dynamics and first-time homeownership”, Housing studies, 23(6), 917-933.
Bar, M. & Leukhina, O. (2010), “Demographic transition and industrial revolution: a macroeconomic investigation”, Review of Economic Dynamics, 13(2): 424-451.

Enders, W. (2004), Applies Economic Time Series, New York: John Willey & Sons, Inc.

Freedman, R. (1995), “Asia’s recent fertility decline and prospects for future demographic change”, Asia-Pacific Population Research Reports, 1.

Giannelli, G. C. & Monfardini, C. (2003), “Joint decisions on household membership and human capital accumulation of youths: The role of expected earnings and local markets”, Journal of Population Economics,16(2): 265-285.

Goldstein, J. R., Sobotka, T., & Jasilionienė, A. (2009), “The End of “Lowest-Low” Fertility”, Population & Development Review, 35(4): 663-699.

Hondroyiannis, G. (2010), “Fertility Determinants and Economic Uncertainty: An Assessment Using European Panel Data”, Journal of Family and Economic Issues , 31(1) : 33-50.

Hondroyiannis, G. & Papapetrou, E. (2002), “Demographic transition and economic growth: Empirical evidence from Greece”, Journal of PopulationEconomics, 15(2):221-242.

Huang J.-T., Kao A.-P., and Hung W.-C. (2006), “The Influence of College Tuition and Fees on Fertility Rate in Taiwan”, Journal of Family and Economic Issues 27(4): 626-642.

Hui, E. C. M., Zheng, X., & Hu, J. (2012), “Housing price, elderly dependency and fertility behaviour”, Habitat International, 36(2): 304-311.

Jovan Z., Daniel H.; Thomas L.(2010), “Low Fertility and Long-Run Growth in an Economy with a Large Public Sector”, European Journal of Population 26(2): 183-205.

Krishnan, V. & Krotki, K. J. (1993), “Life cycle effects on
home-ownership in Canada”, Housing Studies, 8(2): 120-127.

Kohler, H.-P., Billari, F. C., & Ortega, J. A.(2002), “ The emergence of lowest-low fertility in Europe during the 1990s”, Population and Development Review, 28(4): 641-680.

Levin, E., Montagnoli, A., & Wright, R. E. (2009), “Demographic change and the housing market: evidence from a comparison of Scotland and England”, Urban Studies, 46(1): 27-43.

Lo, K.-T. (2012), “The Crowding-out Effect of Homeownership on Fertility”, Journal of Family and Economic, 33(1): 108-117.

Lutz, W. and V. Skirbekk (2005), “Policies Addressing the Tempo Effect in Low-Fertility Countries’, Population & Development Review; 31(4):699-720.

Malmberg, B. (2010), “Low fertility and the housing market: evidence from Swedish regional data”, European Journal of Population, 26(2): 229-244.

McNown, R. and Rajbhandary, S. (2003), “Time series analysis of fertility and female labor market behavior”, Journal of Population Economics, 16(3): 501-523.

Murphy, K., Simon, C., & Tamura, R. (2008), “Fertility decline, baby boom, and economic growth”, Journal of Human Capital, 2(3): 262-302.

Mulder, C. (2006), “Home-ownership and family formation”, Journal of Housing and the Built EnvHIRonment, 21(3): 281-298.

Mulder, C. H. & Billari, F. C. (2010), “Homeownership regimes and low fertility”, Housing Studies, 25(4): 527-541.

Narayan, P. K. (2006), “Determinants of Female Fertility in Taiwan, 1966-2001: EmpHIRical Evidence from Cointegration and Variance Decomposition Analysis”, Asian Economic Journal, 20(4): 393-407.

Notestein F. W. (1945), “Population-The long view”, In Theodore W. Schultz (Ed.), Food for the World, Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 36-57.

Schultz, T. P. (2001), “The fertility transition: economic explanations”, Economic Growth Center Discussion, Paper No. 833.

Schultz, T. P. (2007), “Population policies, fertility, women’s human capital, and child quality”, Handbook of Development Economics, 4: 3249-3303.

Simon, C. J. & Tamura, R. (2009), “Do higher rents discourage fertility? Evidence from U.S. cities, 1940-2000”, Regional Science and Urban Economics, 39:33–42.

Wigniolle, B. (2002), “Fertility, intergenerational transfers and economic development”, The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, 11(3): 297-321.

Yakita, A. (2001), “Uncertain lifetime, fertility and social security”, Journal of Population Economics, 14(4): 635-640.

Yi, J. & Zhang, J. (2010), “The effect of house price on fertility evidence from Hong Kong”, Economic Inquiry, 48(3): 635-650.		zh_TW