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題名 中國大陸地方財政分權對房產價格的影響-以空間計量模型分析
The Impact of Fiscal Decentralization on House Price in China – Spatial Analysis作者 劉育嘉
Yu-Chia Liu貢獻者 黃智聰
Jr-Tsung Huang
劉育嘉
Yu-Chia Liu關鍵詞 中國
財政分權
房價
空間計量
China
Fiscal Decentralization
House Price
Spatial Econometrics日期 2012 上傳時間 2-Sep-2013 17:23:08 (UTC+8) 摘要 This study tries to investigate the impact of fiscal decentralization on house price in China, applying spatial econometrics models to conduct the empirical analysis. This study uses official panel data for 31 provinces from 2000 to 2010 and the provincial price of commercialized buildings in China as the dependent variable, the primary finding of this study is that the relationship between fiscal decentralization and house price in China is like a U-shaped curve in which we can find an appropriate degree of fiscal decentralization minimizing the house price. In addition, the results show that the spatial dependence has a statistically significant and positive influence on house price in China. Therefore, the Chinese government could implement some fiscal policies to control the fiscal decentralization across provinces. By adjusting the degree of fiscal decentralization to an appropriate level, the houses prices between the developed provinces and developing provinces can achieve a stable equilibrium. Keywords: China, Fiscal Decentralization, House Price, Spatial Econometrics 參考文獻 Akai, Nobuo and Masayo Sakata (2002), “Fiscal Decentralization Contributes to Economic Growth: Evidence from State-Level Cross-Section Data for the United State. ” Journal of Economics, 52, 93-108. Can, Ayse and Isaac Megbolugbe (1997), “Spatial Dependence and House Price Index Construction.” Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 14: 203–222. Bradbury, Katharine L., Christopher J. Mayer, and Karl E. Case (2001), “Property Tax Limits, Local Fiscal Behavior, and Property Values: Evidence from Massachusetts under Proposition 2.5.” Journal of Public Economics, 80, 287-311. Chen, Hu-Chun, Wei-Xian Ku, Lu Liu, and Lin Cheng (2012), “An Empirical Analysis of the Factors Affecting the Housing Price in China.” Oriental Enterprise Culture, 1-2. Cheng, Anchih (2006), “The Role of Fiscal Decentralization in Regional Economic Growth in China.” The Master Thesis of National Chengchi University, Republic of China (Taiwan). Ghebreegziabiher Debrezion, Eric A. J. H. Pels, and Piet Rietveld (2007) “Modelling the Joint Access Mode and Railway Station Choice” Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper, No. 07-012/3. Huang, Jr-Tsung, Kuang-Ta Lo, and Po-Wen She (2011), “The Impact of Fiscal Decentralization on the Tax Effort of China`s Local Governments after the Tax Sharing System.” Accepted by Singapore Economic Review, Forthcoming. (SSCI). Elhorst, J. Paul (2010), “MATLAB SOFTWARE FOR SPATIAL PANELS” World Conference of the Spatial Econometrics Association (SEA), Chicago, June 9-12, 2010. Lin, Ting-Ting (2011), “The Influence of Fiscal Decentralization on the Real Estate Price in China” The Master Thesis of National Chengchi University, Republic of China (Taiwan). Liu, Zong-Ming (2012), “Fiscal Decentralization, Institutional Shocks and House-price Dynamics.” Industrial Economics Research, Vol. 4, 2012, 42-50. Anselin, Luc (1988), “Lagrange Multiplier Test Diagnostics for Spatial Dependence and Spatial Heterogeneity” Geographical Analysis, Vol. 20, No. 1, January 1988. Anselin, Luc (1988), Spatial Econometrics: Methods and Models, Netherlands Kluwer Academic Publishers, 1988. Oates and Wallace E. (1969), “The Effects of Property Taxes and Local Public Spending on Property Values：An Empirical Study of Tax Capitalization and the Tiebout Hypothesis.” Journal of Political Economics, 77, 957-971. Rosenthal L. (1999), “House Prices and Local Taxes in the UK.” Fiscal Studies, 20(1), 61-76. Gong, Ru-kai and Zong-Yuan Huang (2012), “What Pushes up Housing Prices? Evidence from Intuitional Factors in China”, South China Journal of Economics, Vol. 9, 2012, 3-16. Basu, Sabyasachi and Thomas G. Thibodeau (1998), “Analysis of Spatial Autocorrelation in House Prices.” Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Vol. 17:1, 61-85. State Statistical Bureau (1999-2011), China Statistical Yearbook. Beijing: Chinese Statistical Press. Bourassa, Steven C., Eva Cantoni, and Martin Hoesli (2008), “Predicting House Prices with Spatial Dependence: Impacts of Alternative Submarket Definitions.” paper presented at the “Hard to Tax: An International Perspective.” Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series, No. 08- 01. Thomas, A. (1993), “The Influence of Wages and House Prices on British Interregional Migration Decisions.” Applied Economics, 25, 1261-1268. Wen, Hai-Zhen, Zhi-Li Zhang, and Ling Zhang (2011), “An Empirical Analysis on Spatial Effects of the Housing Price Based on Spatial Econometrics Models.” Systems Engineering- Theory& Practice, Vol. 31, No. 9, Jul.,1661-1667. Yan, Lei (2007), “A Spatial Analysis of Housing Market in China.” The Master Thesis of Xiamen University, the People`s Republic of China. Yang, Jun-Ru and Chen Qiu (2012), “Fiscal Decentralization, Government Investment and Housing Price”, Macroeconomics, Vol. 9, 2012, 70-92. Zhang Q., Gay Fung, and H. (2006), “China’s Social Capital and Financial Performance of Private Enterprises.” Journal of Small Business and Enterprise Development, 13(2), 98-207. Zhong, Hong and Jie Jin (2007), “Spatial Variation Analysis of Urban Land Price: A Case Study in Kunming City, Yunnan Province.” Resources Science, Vol. 29, No. 4, Jul., 27-32. Zhou, Wen-Xing and Xin-Lang Lin (2012), “The Relationship between Housing Price and Urbanization: An Empirical Study Based on Dynamic Panel Data and Spatial Econometrics.” Journal of Chongqing University (Social Science Edition), Vol. 18, No. 5, 140-143. 描述 碩士
國立政治大學
財政研究所
100255027
101資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G1002550271 資料類型 thesis dc.contributor.advisor 黃智聰 zh_TW dc.contributor.advisor Jr-Tsung Huang en_US dc.contributor.author (Authors) 劉育嘉 zh_TW dc.contributor.author (Authors) Yu-Chia Liu en_US dc.creator (作者) 劉育嘉 zh_TW dc.creator (作者) Yu-Chia Liu en_US dc.date (日期) 2012 en_US dc.date.accessioned 2-Sep-2013 17:23:08 (UTC+8) - dc.date.available 2-Sep-2013 17:23:08 (UTC+8) - dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 2-Sep-2013 17:23:08 (UTC+8) - dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G1002550271 en_US dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/59537 - dc.description (描述) 碩士 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 財政研究所 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 100255027 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 101 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) This study tries to investigate the impact of fiscal decentralization on house price in China, applying spatial econometrics models to conduct the empirical analysis. This study uses official panel data for 31 provinces from 2000 to 2010 and the provincial price of commercialized buildings in China as the dependent variable, the primary finding of this study is that the relationship between fiscal decentralization and house price in China is like a U-shaped curve in which we can find an appropriate degree of fiscal decentralization minimizing the house price. In addition, the results show that the spatial dependence has a statistically significant and positive influence on house price in China. Therefore, the Chinese government could implement some fiscal policies to control the fiscal decentralization across provinces. By adjusting the degree of fiscal decentralization to an appropriate level, the houses prices between the developed provinces and developing provinces can achieve a stable equilibrium. Keywords: China, Fiscal Decentralization, House Price, Spatial Econometrics en_US dc.description.tableofcontents CHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTION 1 1.1 Introduction 1 1.2 Research Framework 6 CHAPTER 2. LITERATURE REVIEW 8 2.1 Literature of the Relationship between House Price and Fiscal Decentralization 8 2.2 Literature of House Price Using Spatial Analysis 13 CHAPTER 3. HOUSE MARKET AND FISCAL DECENTRALIZATION IN CHINA 18 3.1 The House Market in China 18 3.2 The Fiscal Decentralization in China 26 3.3 The Fiscal Reforms in China 29 CHAPTER 4. METHODOLOGY AND VARIABLES 36 4.1 Spatial Dependence 36 4.2 Spatial Econometrics Models 38 4.3 Variables Description and Data 42 CHAPTER 5. EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS 47 5.1 Model Estimation without Spatial Dependence 48 5.2 Spatial Econometrics Model Estimation 54 CHAPTER 6. CONCLUSIONS AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS 66 6.1 Conclusions 66 6.2 Policy Implications 67 REFERENCES 69 APPENDIX 73 zh_TW dc.language.iso en_US - dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G1002550271 en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) 中國 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 財政分權 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 房價 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 空間計量 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) China en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Fiscal Decentralization en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) House Price en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Spatial Econometrics en_US dc.title (題名) 中國大陸地方財政分權對房產價格的影響-以空間計量模型分析 zh_TW dc.title (題名) The Impact of Fiscal Decentralization on House Price in China – Spatial Analysis en_US dc.type (資料類型) thesis en dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Akai, Nobuo and Masayo Sakata (2002), “Fiscal Decentralization Contributes to Economic Growth: Evidence from State-Level Cross-Section Data for the United State. ” Journal of Economics, 52, 93-108. Can, Ayse and Isaac Megbolugbe (1997), “Spatial Dependence and House Price Index Construction.” Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 14: 203–222. Bradbury, Katharine L., Christopher J. Mayer, and Karl E. Case (2001), “Property Tax Limits, Local Fiscal Behavior, and Property Values: Evidence from Massachusetts under Proposition 2.5.” Journal of Public Economics, 80, 287-311. Chen, Hu-Chun, Wei-Xian Ku, Lu Liu, and Lin Cheng (2012), “An Empirical Analysis of the Factors Affecting the Housing Price in China.” Oriental Enterprise Culture, 1-2. Cheng, Anchih (2006), “The Role of Fiscal Decentralization in Regional Economic Growth in China.” The Master Thesis of National Chengchi University, Republic of China (Taiwan). Ghebreegziabiher Debrezion, Eric A. J. H. Pels, and Piet Rietveld (2007) “Modelling the Joint Access Mode and Railway Station Choice” Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper, No. 07-012/3. Huang, Jr-Tsung, Kuang-Ta Lo, and Po-Wen She (2011), “The Impact of Fiscal Decentralization on the Tax Effort of China`s Local Governments after the Tax Sharing System.” Accepted by Singapore Economic Review, Forthcoming. (SSCI). Elhorst, J. Paul (2010), “MATLAB SOFTWARE FOR SPATIAL PANELS” World Conference of the Spatial Econometrics Association (SEA), Chicago, June 9-12, 2010. Lin, Ting-Ting (2011), “The Influence of Fiscal Decentralization on the Real Estate Price in China” The Master Thesis of National Chengchi University, Republic of China (Taiwan). Liu, Zong-Ming (2012), “Fiscal Decentralization, Institutional Shocks and House-price Dynamics.” Industrial Economics Research, Vol. 4, 2012, 42-50. Anselin, Luc (1988), “Lagrange Multiplier Test Diagnostics for Spatial Dependence and Spatial Heterogeneity” Geographical Analysis, Vol. 20, No. 1, January 1988. Anselin, Luc (1988), Spatial Econometrics: Methods and Models, Netherlands Kluwer Academic Publishers, 1988. Oates and Wallace E. (1969), “The Effects of Property Taxes and Local Public Spending on Property Values：An Empirical Study of Tax Capitalization and the Tiebout Hypothesis.” Journal of Political Economics, 77, 957-971. Rosenthal L. (1999), “House Prices and Local Taxes in the UK.” Fiscal Studies, 20(1), 61-76. Gong, Ru-kai and Zong-Yuan Huang (2012), “What Pushes up Housing Prices? Evidence from Intuitional Factors in China”, South China Journal of Economics, Vol. 9, 2012, 3-16. Basu, Sabyasachi and Thomas G. Thibodeau (1998), “Analysis of Spatial Autocorrelation in House Prices.” Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Vol. 17:1, 61-85. State Statistical Bureau (1999-2011), China Statistical Yearbook. Beijing: Chinese Statistical Press. Bourassa, Steven C., Eva Cantoni, and Martin Hoesli (2008), “Predicting House Prices with Spatial Dependence: Impacts of Alternative Submarket Definitions.” paper presented at the “Hard to Tax: An International Perspective.” Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series, No. 08- 01. Thomas, A. (1993), “The Influence of Wages and House Prices on British Interregional Migration Decisions.” Applied Economics, 25, 1261-1268. Wen, Hai-Zhen, Zhi-Li Zhang, and Ling Zhang (2011), “An Empirical Analysis on Spatial Effects of the Housing Price Based on Spatial Econometrics Models.” Systems Engineering- Theory& Practice, Vol. 31, No. 9, Jul.,1661-1667. Yan, Lei (2007), “A Spatial Analysis of Housing Market in China.” The Master Thesis of Xiamen University, the People`s Republic of China. Yang, Jun-Ru and Chen Qiu (2012), “Fiscal Decentralization, Government Investment and Housing Price”, Macroeconomics, Vol. 9, 2012, 70-92. Zhang Q., Gay Fung, and H. (2006), “China’s Social Capital and Financial Performance of Private Enterprises.” Journal of Small Business and Enterprise Development, 13(2), 98-207. Zhong, Hong and Jie Jin (2007), “Spatial Variation Analysis of Urban Land Price: A Case Study in Kunming City, Yunnan Province.” Resources Science, Vol. 29, No. 4, Jul., 27-32. Zhou, Wen-Xing and Xin-Lang Lin (2012), “The Relationship between Housing Price and Urbanization: An Empirical Study Based on Dynamic Panel Data and Spatial Econometrics.” Journal of Chongqing University (Social Science Edition), Vol. 18, No. 5, 140-143. zh_TW
