| dc.contributor.advisor | 黃子銘 | zh_TW |
| dc.contributor.advisor | Huang, Tzee Ming | en_US |
| dc.contributor.author (Authors) | 王彥智 | zh_TW |
| dc.contributor.author (Authors) | Wang, Yan Chih | en_US |
| dc.creator (作者) | 王彥智 | zh_TW |
| dc.creator (作者) | Wang, Yan Chih | en_US |
| dc.date (日期) | 2012 | en_US |
| dc.date.accessioned | 3-Sep-2013 09:53:56 (UTC+8) | - |
| dc.date.available | 3-Sep-2013 09:53:56 (UTC+8) | - |
| dc.date.issued (上傳時間) | 3-Sep-2013 09:53:56 (UTC+8) | - |
| dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) | G0100354003 | en_US |
| dc.identifier.uri (URI) | http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/59637 | - |
| dc.description (描述) | 碩士 | zh_TW |
| dc.description (描述) | 國立政治大學 | zh_TW |
| dc.description (描述) | 統計研究所 | zh_TW |
| dc.description (描述) | 100354003 | zh_TW |
| dc.description (描述) | 101 | zh_TW |
| dc.description.abstract (摘要) | 本文研究目的在於預測12-13年NBA總冠軍,蒐集12-13球季NBA常規賽數據,將每場球賽的數據整理分類,主要研究方法是使用B-Spline為基底建模,配適出每個球隊的實力曲線,再根據三種不同概念的指標,DIFF(Difference):比賽得失分差。GmSr(Game Score):自身球隊的效率分數,表示球隊攻擊能力。AntiGmSr(Anti-Game Score):比賽對手的效率分數,表示壓制對手的能力。最後,使用排名積分法和最適加權法來融合這三種不同指標分數,預測當年度總冠軍。此外,本文也將02-12年總共十個球季的總冠軍賽果加入預測判斷條件,使之更能加強對總冠軍預測的準確性。排名積分法預測2013年總冠軍為熱火隊、最適加權法預測為灰熊隊。 | zh_TW |
| dc.description.abstract (摘要) | We apply a B-Spline approach to predict the playoff results of National Basketball Association (NBA). Here the features are composed of the regular seasons. Moreover, we use DIFF(diffentials),GmSr(gamescore) and AntiGmSr(the rival`s gamescore) to rank to predict the final result. With 10-year records, the predict result is that for the best chance of 2013 NBA Championship is Heat. | en_US |
| dc.description.tableofcontents | 1 緒論........................41.1 研究動機與目的..............41.2 本文架構...................42 文獻探討.....................52.1 NBA數據分析起源和發展........52.2 預測NBA冠軍的相關文獻........63 研究方法.....................73.1 建構曲線模型假設............73.2 knots個數選擇..............83.3 指標分數計算................93.4 總冠軍預測方法..............104 2002-2013年~NBA球隊數據分析...114.1 02-12年之總冠軍分析.........124.2 12-13年度總冠軍預測分析......155 總結與討論....................17附錄...........................18 | zh_TW |
| dc.format.extent | 2553454 bytes | - |
| dc.format.mimetype | application/pdf | - |
| dc.language.iso | en_US | - |
| dc.source.uri (資料來源) | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0100354003 | en_US |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | B-樣條 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | 平滑資料 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | 節點 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | 美國男子職業籃球 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | 總冠軍預測 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | B-Spline | en_US |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | knots | en_US |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | NBA | en_US |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | predict | en_US |
| dc.title (題名) | 以B-Spline方法預測NBA冠軍 | zh_TW |
| dc.title (題名) | Predicting NBA Championship By Using B-Spline | en_US |
| dc.type (資料類型) | thesis | en |
| dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) | [1] Martin Manley`s Basketball Heaven: The 1990 Edition. Doubleday, 1989.[2] Dave Heeren. Basketball Abstract 1989-90. Prentice Hall, 1989.[3] John Hollinger. Pro Basketball Forecast: 2005-06. Potomac Books Inc,USA, 2005.9.30.[4] Feifang Hu and James V. Zidek. Forecasting nba basketball playoff out-comes using the weighted likelihood. Institute of Mathematical Statistics,45:385{395, 2004.[5] Michael Lewis. Moneyball: The Art of Winning an Unfair Game. W WNorton & Co Inc, 2011.[6] Mary J. Lindstrom. Penalized estimation of free-knot splines. Journal ofComputational and Graphical Statistics, pages 8:333{352, 1999.[7] Bernard Loeffelholz, Earl Bednar, and Kenneth W. Bauer. Predicting nbagames using neural networks. Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports,5(1), 2009.[8] Dean Oliver. Basketball On Paper: Rules And Tools For PerformanceAnalysis. Potomac Books Inc, 2005.[9] David Ruppert. Selecting the number of knots for penalized splines. Journalof Computational and Graphical Statistics, 11(4):735{757, 2002.[10] Bob Ryan, Sam Smith, Leonard Koppett, Bob Bellotti, and Kenneth A.Shouler. Total Basketball: The Ultimate Basketball Encyclopedia. NatlBook Network, 2003.[11] Thomas W. Sederberg. An introduction to b-spline curves. 3 2005.[12] Na Wei. Predicting the outcome of nba playoffs using the nave bayes algo-rithms. 2010. Department of Biomedical Engineering, College of Engineer-ing, University of South Florida, Tampa, FL 33620, USA.[13] Jackie B. Yang and Ching-Heng Lu. Predicting nba championship by learn-ing from history data. 2012 Spring. | zh_TW |
