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題名 海平面上升對土地利用變遷與人口遷移影響之研究─以台北都會區為例
The influence of sea level rise on land use changes and population migration ─ A study of Taipei metropolitan area作者 張伊芳
Chang, Yi Fang貢獻者 劉小蘭
Liu, Hsiao Lan
張伊芳
Chang, Yi Fang關鍵詞 海平面上升
土地利用變遷
二元羅吉斯迴歸
CLUE-s
人口遷移
Sea-level rise
land use change
binary logistic regression
CLUE-s
population migration日期 2009 上傳時間 3-Sep-2013 14:49:52 (UTC+8) 摘要 IPCC於第四次報告書中，模擬氣候持續暖化預測未來海平面上升之情形，而海平面上升對於人口集中的台北都會區將產生莫大之衝擊，同時亦會造成土地利用變遷。本研究目的在於探討海平面上升對台北都會區土地利用變遷之影響，以及受淹沒地區之人口未來可能之遷移區位，主要係從社會經濟發展層面進行分析。運用二元羅吉斯迴歸模式並結合土地利用轉換與影響模型（CLUE-s），以四種不同情境模擬土地利用變遷之情況，其情境分別為海平面上升59公分管制農林地與不管制，以及海平面上升100公分管制農林地與不管制。 研究結果顯示，海平面上升之情形越嚴重，未來的都市建地發展會越趨向擴張的形式，對農林地產生變遷之壓力；而於同一海平面上升水平下，針對農林地進行管制，其建地之發展會較為集中於都市計畫地區範圍內，且多數人口亦將遷移至此，容易形成人口壓力。此外，土地利用變遷模擬所得之新增建地部分，於情境A、C下足以容納受影響之人口，但情境B、D則不足以容納，皆會對台北都會區產生容受力之問題，產生累計人口超過計畫人口之現象。因此，建議未來政府於都市發展上，可調整都市計畫內之土地使用強度或都市範圍，也可利用都市更新之方式減少新的土地開發；此外，從國家層級分析，未來的國土計畫法於立法上，亦可將更多氣候變遷相關影響因子納入四大功能分區，透過適宜性分析進行分類分級，以做為未來土地利用發展之引導。
The 4th IPCC report simulated climate warming and predicted future sea-level rise scenarios. A sea level rise will have a great impact on the population of the Taipei metropolitan area, and it will also produce land-use changes. The purpose of this study is to research the impact of sea level change on land use changes and population migration in Taipei metropolitan, and the areas that will be immigrated by the flooded areas. The method used includes binary logistic regression model combined with Conversion of Land Use and its Effects Model (CLUE-s). Setting the sea-level rise and regulating agricultural land, forest land of the four simulated situations.The results show that the higher sea level rises, the more transformation towards urban development in the future, and the higher sea level will also pressure agriculture and forestry changes. As a result of population pressure on Taipei metropolitan area, the same level of sea-level rise for the regulation of agriculture and forestry land, the development of building sites and population migration will be more concentrated on urban planning areas. In addition, the simulation of land use change generated new building sites, sufficient enough to accommodate the affected population under A and C simulated situations, but B and D couldn’t generate such results. Instead, it will generate a carrying capacity issue. Therefore, this thesis suggests that the government adjust the intensity of land use in urban development, urban areas and urban renewal of urban planning. In addition, the analysis from the national level, the future legislation of Land Planning Act should include the relation of climate change impact factors as a consideration of future land use development.參考文獻 一、中文參考文獻IPCC WGII 第十章，2008，「亞洲氣候變遷衝擊分析」，臺大全球變遷研究中心:1~24。丁敬忠，2007，「土地利用變遷對於農地適宜性之影響分析」，國立台北大學都市計劃研究所碩士論文：台北。丁志堅（2002），「屏東平原土地利用變遷分析與模式建立」，國立台灣大學地理環境資源研究所博士論文：台北。于如陵，1990，「都市土地使用結構之研究─以台中市為例」，國立成功大學都市計畫研究所碩士論文：台南。王彥覃，2008，「應用自上而下與自下而上土地利用及降與─逕流模式模擬土地利用變遷與水文量─以寶橋集水區為例」，國立台灣大學生物環境工程研究所碩士論文：台北。吳振發，2006，「土地利用變遷及景觀生態評估方法之建立」，國立臺北大學都市計劃研究所博士論文：台北。吳佩蓉，2008，「整合土地利用模式與水文模式於集水區景觀生態規劃管理」，國立台灣大學生物環境工程研究所碩士論文：台北。吳治達，2004，「民墾地之地景變遷監測研究」，國立台灣大學森林學研究所碩士論文：台北。周天穎、簡甫任、雷祖強，2003，都市地區土地利用變遷量化分析之研究，台灣土地研究，6(1)：105-130。林裕彬、林允斌、王彥覃，2007，「台北都會區土地使用變遷模式之研究--子計畫一：土地利用變遷與政策之互動影響分析-空間統計模式(II)研究成果報告(完整版)」，行政院國家科學委員會專題研究計畫。林裕彬、吳振發、鄧東波，2004，「景觀生態面指數分析汐止地區1990~2001 年土地利用時空間鑲嵌特徵」，『都市與計畫』，31（3）：195-223。林裕彬、陳虹螢、朱宏杰，2010，「台北都會區土地利用變遷經驗模式之比較與整合研究─土地利用變遷對水文衝擊模擬與評估」，〈台北都會區土地使用變遷模型之比較研究成果發表會會議論文集〉，臺灣大學建築與城鄉研究所：台北。林英彥，1999，「土地經濟學通論」，文笙書局股份有限公司，台北市。林余真，2006，「都會區住宅空間分佈變遷及區位選擇因素之研究--以台北都會區為例」，國立政治大學地政研究所碩士論文：台北。施明元(1995) ，「台中市土地利用空間發展之研究 」，逢甲大學土地管理研究所碩士論文：台中。施學銘，1995，「未來全球變遷對臺灣海岸環境之衝擊與因應研究規劃」，〈全球氣候變遷對台灣之影響與因應研究規劃研討會〉：台北市。莊翰華（2001），「土地變遷中的永續經營課題－員林鎮之實證」，『台灣土地金融季刊』，38（1）：111-131。黃依卿，2005，「都市土地驅動力之研究─以台北市內湖區為例」，國立台北大學不動產與城鄉環境學系碩士論文：台北。黃書禮，2008，「全球環境變遷與都市周邊土地使用改變對都市生態經濟系統影響之研究：以台北─桃園地區為例，第一冊：台北─桃園地區都市周邊土地使用與地表覆蓋變遷」，行政院國家科學委員會專題研究計畫成果報告。黃書禮、蔡靜如，2000，「臺北盆地土地利用變遷趨勢之研究」，『都市與計劃』，27（1）：1~22。黃書禮，2009，環境規劃，課堂講義。鄒克萬、張曜麟，2004，「都市土地使用變遷空間動態模型之研究」，『地理學報』，35：35-51。鄒克萬、 黃書偉，2007，「都市土地利用變遷對自然環境衝擊之空間影響分析」，『地理學報』，48：1-18。蔡佩璇，2008，「土地使用分區管制對都市土地使用變遷之影響」，國立成功大學都市計劃研究所碩士論文：台北。鄭祈全、許立達、賴玉菁，2001，「應用土地利用資訊系統遷測森林地景變遷之研究」，『台灣林業科學』，16(1)：1-19。賴進貴，2001，台灣環境變遷與氣候變遷衝擊之評析─土地利用變遷（Ⅱ），行政院國家科學委員會補助專題研究計畫成果報告，台灣大學地理環境資源學系。賴進貴、葉高華、王韋力，2004，土地利用變遷與空間相依性之探討以臺北盆地聚落變遷為例，台灣地理資訊學刊 ，1：29-40。賴玫綺，2006，「都市蔓延與氣候暖化關係之研究─以台北都會區為例」，國立政治地學地政學系碩士論文：台北。二、英文參考文獻Anderson, S. 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Veldkamp A., 2004, “Land use change modelling: current practice and research priorities,” GeoJournal ,61: 309–324.Veldkamp, A. and Fresco, L.O., 1996, “CLUE: a conceptual model to study the conversion of land use and its effects,” Ecological Modeling, 85: 253-270World Bank,2007, East Asia Environment Monitor 2007 Adapting to Climate Change.World bank, 2009, World Development Report 2010: Development and Climate ChangeWalsh, K.J.E., Betts, H., Church, J., Pittock, A.B., Pittock, K. L., McInnes, D.R., Jackett, T.J., 2002, "Using sea level rise projections for urban planning in Australia ", Journal of Coastal Research: 1-48. 描述 碩士
國立政治大學
地政研究所
97257005
98資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0097257005 資料類型 thesis dc.contributor.advisor 劉小蘭 zh_TW dc.contributor.advisor Liu, Hsiao Lan en_US dc.contributor.author (Authors) 張伊芳 zh_TW dc.contributor.author (Authors) Chang, Yi Fang en_US dc.creator (作者) 張伊芳 zh_TW dc.creator (作者) Chang, Yi Fang en_US dc.date (日期) 2009 en_US dc.date.accessioned 3-Sep-2013 14:49:52 (UTC+8) - dc.date.available 3-Sep-2013 14:49:52 (UTC+8) - dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 3-Sep-2013 14:49:52 (UTC+8) - dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0097257005 en_US dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/59810 - dc.description (描述) 碩士 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 地政研究所 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 97257005 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 98 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) IPCC於第四次報告書中，模擬氣候持續暖化預測未來海平面上升之情形，而海平面上升對於人口集中的台北都會區將產生莫大之衝擊，同時亦會造成土地利用變遷。本研究目的在於探討海平面上升對台北都會區土地利用變遷之影響，以及受淹沒地區之人口未來可能之遷移區位，主要係從社會經濟發展層面進行分析。運用二元羅吉斯迴歸模式並結合土地利用轉換與影響模型（CLUE-s），以四種不同情境模擬土地利用變遷之情況，其情境分別為海平面上升59公分管制農林地與不管制，以及海平面上升100公分管制農林地與不管制。 研究結果顯示，海平面上升之情形越嚴重，未來的都市建地發展會越趨向擴張的形式，對農林地產生變遷之壓力；而於同一海平面上升水平下，針對農林地進行管制，其建地之發展會較為集中於都市計畫地區範圍內，且多數人口亦將遷移至此，容易形成人口壓力。此外，土地利用變遷模擬所得之新增建地部分，於情境A、C下足以容納受影響之人口，但情境B、D則不足以容納，皆會對台北都會區產生容受力之問題，產生累計人口超過計畫人口之現象。因此，建議未來政府於都市發展上，可調整都市計畫內之土地使用強度或都市範圍，也可利用都市更新之方式減少新的土地開發；此外，從國家層級分析，未來的國土計畫法於立法上，亦可將更多氣候變遷相關影響因子納入四大功能分區，透過適宜性分析進行分類分級，以做為未來土地利用發展之引導。 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) The 4th IPCC report simulated climate warming and predicted future sea-level rise scenarios. A sea level rise will have a great impact on the population of the Taipei metropolitan area, and it will also produce land-use changes. The purpose of this study is to research the impact of sea level change on land use changes and population migration in Taipei metropolitan, and the areas that will be immigrated by the flooded areas. The method used includes binary logistic regression model combined with Conversion of Land Use and its Effects Model (CLUE-s). Setting the sea-level rise and regulating agricultural land, forest land of the four simulated situations.The results show that the higher sea level rises, the more transformation towards urban development in the future, and the higher sea level will also pressure agriculture and forestry changes. As a result of population pressure on Taipei metropolitan area, the same level of sea-level rise for the regulation of agriculture and forestry land, the development of building sites and population migration will be more concentrated on urban planning areas. In addition, the simulation of land use change generated new building sites, sufficient enough to accommodate the affected population under A and C simulated situations, but B and D couldn’t generate such results. Instead, it will generate a carrying capacity issue. Therefore, this thesis suggests that the government adjust the intensity of land use in urban development, urban areas and urban renewal of urban planning. In addition, the analysis from the national level, the future legislation of Land Planning Act should include the relation of climate change impact factors as a consideration of future land use development. en_US dc.description.tableofcontents 第一章 緒論第一節 研究動機與目的 1第二節 研究範圍與內容 4第三節 研究方法與流程 8第二章 文獻回顧第一節 海平面上升之形成與衝擊 11第二節 氣候變遷空間規劃 14第三節 土地利用變遷相關理論 20第四節 土地利用變遷模擬 27第五節 小結 33第三章 海平面變化分析與台北都會區發展背景第一節 海平面上升之變化分析 35第二節 台北都會區發展背景分析 38第三節 台北都會區土地利用與計畫發展背景分析 45第四節 小結 59第四章 研究設計第一節 土地利用變遷驅動力變數 62第二節 海平面上升情境模擬 69第三節 土地利用變遷模型模擬設計 75第五章 實證分析第一節 二元羅吉斯迴歸模式分析 83第二節 土地利用變遷模型驗證 90第三節 海平面上升之土地利用變遷模擬與分析 93第四節 海平面上升對台北都會區之衝擊 108第五節 小結 116第六章 結論與建議第一節 結論 119第二節 建議 123參考文獻 參-1附錄 附-1 zh_TW dc.format.extent 8034481 bytes - dc.format.mimetype application/pdf - dc.language.iso en_US - dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0097257005 en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) 海平面上升 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 土地利用變遷 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 二元羅吉斯迴歸 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) CLUE-s zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 人口遷移 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) Sea-level rise en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) land use change en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) binary logistic regression en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) CLUE-s en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) population migration en_US dc.title (題名) 海平面上升對土地利用變遷與人口遷移影響之研究─以台北都會區為例 zh_TW dc.title (題名) The influence of sea level rise on land use changes and population migration ─ A study of Taipei metropolitan area en_US dc.type (資料類型) thesis en dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 一、中文參考文獻IPCC WGII 第十章，2008，「亞洲氣候變遷衝擊分析」，臺大全球變遷研究中心:1~24。丁敬忠，2007，「土地利用變遷對於農地適宜性之影響分析」，國立台北大學都市計劃研究所碩士論文：台北。丁志堅（2002），「屏東平原土地利用變遷分析與模式建立」，國立台灣大學地理環境資源研究所博士論文：台北。于如陵，1990，「都市土地使用結構之研究─以台中市為例」，國立成功大學都市計畫研究所碩士論文：台南。王彥覃，2008，「應用自上而下與自下而上土地利用及降與─逕流模式模擬土地利用變遷與水文量─以寶橋集水區為例」，國立台灣大學生物環境工程研究所碩士論文：台北。吳振發，2006，「土地利用變遷及景觀生態評估方法之建立」，國立臺北大學都市計劃研究所博士論文：台北。吳佩蓉，2008，「整合土地利用模式與水文模式於集水區景觀生態規劃管理」，國立台灣大學生物環境工程研究所碩士論文：台北。吳治達，2004，「民墾地之地景變遷監測研究」，國立台灣大學森林學研究所碩士論文：台北。周天穎、簡甫任、雷祖強，2003，都市地區土地利用變遷量化分析之研究，台灣土地研究，6(1)：105-130。林裕彬、林允斌、王彥覃，2007，「台北都會區土地使用變遷模式之研究--子計畫一：土地利用變遷與政策之互動影響分析-空間統計模式(II)研究成果報告(完整版)」，行政院國家科學委員會專題研究計畫。林裕彬、吳振發、鄧東波，2004，「景觀生態面指數分析汐止地區1990~2001 年土地利用時空間鑲嵌特徵」，『都市與計畫』，31（3）：195-223。林裕彬、陳虹螢、朱宏杰，2010，「台北都會區土地利用變遷經驗模式之比較與整合研究─土地利用變遷對水文衝擊模擬與評估」，〈台北都會區土地使用變遷模型之比較研究成果發表會會議論文集〉，臺灣大學建築與城鄉研究所：台北。林英彥，1999，「土地經濟學通論」，文笙書局股份有限公司，台北市。林余真，2006，「都會區住宅空間分佈變遷及區位選擇因素之研究--以台北都會區為例」，國立政治大學地政研究所碩士論文：台北。施明元(1995) ，「台中市土地利用空間發展之研究 」，逢甲大學土地管理研究所碩士論文：台中。施學銘，1995，「未來全球變遷對臺灣海岸環境之衝擊與因應研究規劃」，〈全球氣候變遷對台灣之影響與因應研究規劃研討會〉：台北市。莊翰華（2001），「土地變遷中的永續經營課題－員林鎮之實證」，『台灣土地金融季刊』，38（1）：111-131。黃依卿，2005，「都市土地驅動力之研究─以台北市內湖區為例」，國立台北大學不動產與城鄉環境學系碩士論文：台北。黃書禮，2008，「全球環境變遷與都市周邊土地使用改變對都市生態經濟系統影響之研究：以台北─桃園地區為例，第一冊：台北─桃園地區都市周邊土地使用與地表覆蓋變遷」，行政院國家科學委員會專題研究計畫成果報告。黃書禮、蔡靜如，2000，「臺北盆地土地利用變遷趨勢之研究」，『都市與計劃』，27（1）：1~22。黃書禮，2009，環境規劃，課堂講義。鄒克萬、張曜麟，2004，「都市土地使用變遷空間動態模型之研究」，『地理學報』，35：35-51。鄒克萬、 黃書偉，2007，「都市土地利用變遷對自然環境衝擊之空間影響分析」，『地理學報』，48：1-18。蔡佩璇，2008，「土地使用分區管制對都市土地使用變遷之影響」，國立成功大學都市計劃研究所碩士論文：台北。鄭祈全、許立達、賴玉菁，2001，「應用土地利用資訊系統遷測森林地景變遷之研究」，『台灣林業科學』，16(1)：1-19。賴進貴，2001，台灣環境變遷與氣候變遷衝擊之評析─土地利用變遷（Ⅱ），行政院國家科學委員會補助專題研究計畫成果報告，台灣大學地理環境資源學系。賴進貴、葉高華、王韋力，2004，土地利用變遷與空間相依性之探討以臺北盆地聚落變遷為例，台灣地理資訊學刊 ，1：29-40。賴玫綺，2006，「都市蔓延與氣候暖化關係之研究─以台北都會區為例」，國立政治地學地政學系碩士論文：台北。二、英文參考文獻Anderson, S. 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