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題名 區域差異性對失業率影響之研究
The effect of regional differences on unemployment rate作者 陳妍汎 貢獻者 劉小蘭
陳妍汎關鍵詞 失業率
區域差異因素
空間自相關
長期追蹤資料
Unemployment rate
Regional discrepant factor
Spatial autocorrelation
Panel data日期 2009 上傳時間 3-九月-2013 14:50:27 (UTC+8) 摘要 區域發展差異現象一直以來為國家政策所關注，而近年來台灣地區失業率有逐漸上升的趨勢，各縣市之表現亦大相逕庭，顯示各地區存在失業差異現象。過去研究較少以空間觀點觀察失業相關議題，此外，關於區域差異因素對失業率之影響鮮少納入政府規劃因素。因此，本研究以空間自相關分析方法檢測失業是否具有空間相關性及聚集性，並應用長期追蹤資料（panel data）迴歸模型，以人口、產業、所得、都市化程度及政府規劃因素，分析台灣22縣市1988至2008近二十年來各區域差異因素對失業率之影響，藉由實證結果提出相關都市及產業政策之建議。實證結果發現，台灣失業分佈具有一定程度的空間相關性，且高低失業率在各縣市間亦有聚集現象。再者，依固定效果模型實證結果發現人口數、工業及服務業就業者百分比、都市化程度、工業區面積百分比與失業率間呈現顯著正向關係；經濟發展支出百分比與失業率呈現顯著負向關係；區域固定效果，即排除自變數影響下，各縣市本身區域特質對失業率之影響，結果顯示台北縣及桃園縣之係數為負向，南投縣、嘉義縣、台東縣與花蓮縣之係數為正向；時間固定效果方面，大部分年度皆具顯著性，且係數有由負轉正之趨勢，代表特定時間衝擊會對失業率造成影響。
Differences in regional development have been a focus on national policies. Recently, there is a increasing trend in the unemployment rate in Taiwan, and it also differs from cities and counties, indicating there exists differences in regional unemployment. Previous research rarely combined unemployment issues with spatial perspective. In addition, the effect of regional discrepant factors on the unemployment rate rarely take government planning factors into account. Therefore, this study uses spatial autocorrelation analysis to detect whether unemployment has spatial correlation and aggregation, and applies panel data regression model with population, industry, income, the degree of urbanization, and government planning factors to analyze the effect of regional discrepant factors on the unemployment rate in Taiwan`s 22 cities and counties from 1988 to 2008. According to the empirical results, we come up with some urban and industrial policy proposals. Empirical results indicate that the distribution of unemployment in Taiwan has a certain degree of spatial correlation, and high or low unemployment rate also has aggregation among cities and counties. Furthermore, according to the results of the fixed effects model, population, the percentage of industrial and service sector employment, the degree of urbanization, and the percentage of industrial area show a significant positive relationship with unemployment rate. The percentage of expenditures for economic development shows a significant negative relationship with unemployment rate. Region-specific fixed effect, which exclude the influence of independent variables, is the effect of regional characteristics of counties and cities on the unemployment rate. This result shows the coefficient of Taipei County and Taoyuan County is negative, and the coefficient of Nantou County, Chiayi County, Taitung County and Hualien County is positive. As for time-specific fixed effect, almost all years are significant, and the coefficient has the trend from negative to positive, indicating that a particular time impact will affect the unemployment rate.參考文獻 一、中文部分王春源，2008，『台灣總體經濟發展與失業問題分析』，台北市：三民書局。王姿尹，2009，「住宅整建之不動產價格外溢效果分析」，國立政治大學地政研究所碩士論文。行政院經濟建設委員會，2001，「地方政府在區域發展中所扮演之角色」，行政院經濟建設委員會，全國經濟發展會議90年1月。江豐富、劉克智，2005，「台灣縣市失業率的長期追蹤研究：1987-2001」，『人口學刊』，第31期，頁1-39。林主恩，2002，「全民健保的實施對醫療資源分布之空間統計分析」，國立台灣大學經濟研究所碩士論文。辛炳隆，2001，「英荷韓政府因應失業問題之作法評析」，『主要國家產經政策動態季刊』，第2期。辛炳隆，2009，「台灣失業問題與對策」，『新世紀智庫論壇』，第45期。李士杰，2009，「台灣地區鄉鎮市地價影響因素之探討－空間計量之應用」，世新大學管理學院經濟學系碩士論文。李其桓，2003，「中國大陸西部區域經濟發展與策略研究」，國立中山大學大陸研究所碩士論文。紀凱婷，2008，「台北市新推個案訂價之時間與空間相依性分析」，國立政治大學地政學系碩士論文。陶在樸，2001，「失業現象的宏觀詮釋」，財團法人國家政策研究基金會，國改評論，科經（評）090-006號。陳怡如，2009，「A Study of Regional Unemployment Rates in Taiwan」，國立中央大學產業經濟研究所博士論文。陳奕奇、劉子銘，2008，「教育成就與城鄉差距：空間群聚之分析」，『人口學刊』，第37期，頁1-43。陳振光，2008，「中國的區域差異」，香港大學城市規劃及環境管理研究中心。郭浩然、蘇慧貞、龍世俊，2007，「氣象因子變化及異常天候對台灣地區傳染性疾病之衝擊」，行政院國家科學委員會研究計畫。曾黛如、謝敏文，2008，「促使老舊工業區再生活化產業發展」，台灣經濟論衡，第6卷，第4期，頁36-43。黃仁德、鍾建屏，2008，「台灣產業結構變動與失業率關係之探討」，『法制論叢』，第41期，頁67-108。黃紹東，2004，「台南市東區住宅價格之空間自我迴歸分析」，國立成功大學都市計劃研究所碩士論文。黃雅燕，2006，「中國大陸地級城市經濟成長收斂性假說驗證─空間 Panel計量的應用」，世新大學財務金融學系碩士論文。黃聖峰，2004，「台灣各縣市經濟指標空間自相關分析—兼論薪資收斂性假說」，世新大學管理學院經濟學系碩士論文。黃煜彬，2005，「區域所得空間分佈之時空變遷情形之探討」，國立成功大學都市計劃研究所碩士論文。張隆宏，2005，「景氣波動與產業結構調整對台灣失業率之影響」，『經濟情勢暨評論』，第11卷，第1期，頁98-115。曾菁敏，2006，「空地再利用及鄰里土地開發對新建住宅土地價格影響之研究－台南市之觀察與實證」，『規劃學報』，第33期，頁21-37。曾菁敏，2008，「空地開發外部性對住宅土地價格影響之研究─台南市的實證分析」，國立政治大學地政研究所博士論文。鄒克萬，2000，「區域人口分布之時空分析」，『台灣土地科學學報』，第1期，頁33-50。詹火生、林慧芬，2002，「失業率攀升中的挑戰與對策」，財團法人國家政策研究基金會，國政研究報告，社會（研）091-033號。鄔建國，2003，『景觀生態學―格局、過程、尺度與等級』，台北：五南。廖德琦，2004，「擴大服務業每年可增加十五萬人就業」，『新台灣新聞週刊』，第414期。 劉君雅、鄧志松、唐代彪，2009，「臺灣低生育率之空間分析」，『人口學刊』，第 39期，頁119-155。薛益忠，2006，「都市在區域發展上的角色」，『華岡地理學報』，第19期，頁1-21。鄭婷尹，2009，「捷運、人口、產業對空氣品質之影響－以台北市為例」，國立政治大學地政研究所碩士論文。謝明瑞，2002，「失業問題與失業政策」，財團法人國家政策研究基金會，國政研究報告，財金（評）091-256號。謝純瑩、周國屏，2002，「自相關分析於人口老化時空變遷之研究」，『人口學刊』，第25期，頁91-119。戴安蕙，2003，「臺灣北部區域空間經濟變遷之研究（1970-1999）」，中國文化大學地學研究所博士論文。 龔書玉，2009，「縣市內部人口遷徙影響因素之研究」，國立台北大學不動產與城鄉環境學系碩士論文。二、外文部分Anselin, L., 1988, Spatial econometrics methods and models, Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht.Anselin, L., 1995, “Local Indicators of Spatial Association: LISA”, Geographical Analysis, 27(2): 93-115.Aschauer, D., 1989, “Is public infrastructure productive?”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 23: 177–200.Badinger, H. and Url, T., 2002, “Determinants of Regional Unemployment: Some Evidence from Austria”, Regional Stidies, 36: 977-988.Bande and Karanassou, 2009, “Labour market flexibility and regional unemployment rate dynamics: Spain 1980-1995”, The Annals of Regional Science, 88(1): 181-207.Bar-El, R., 2006, “Inter-regional labor market equilibrium: another pattern of spatial mismatch”, The Annals of Regional Science, 40: 393-405.Baum, S. and O`Connor, K., 2005, “Regional Population and Employment Change in Australia 1991-2001: Inertia in the Face of Rapid Change?”, GeoJournal, 62(1-2): 85. 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國立政治大學
地政研究所
97257010
98資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0097257010 資料類型 thesis dc.contributor.advisor 劉小蘭 zh_TW dc.contributor.author (作者) 陳妍汎 zh_TW dc.creator (作者) 陳妍汎 zh_TW dc.date (日期) 2009 en_US dc.date.accessioned 3-九月-2013 14:50:27 (UTC+8) - dc.date.available 3-九月-2013 14:50:27 (UTC+8) - dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 3-九月-2013 14:50:27 (UTC+8) - dc.identifier (其他 識別碼) G0097257010 en_US dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/59813 - dc.description (描述) 碩士 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 地政研究所 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 97257010 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 98 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) 區域發展差異現象一直以來為國家政策所關注，而近年來台灣地區失業率有逐漸上升的趨勢，各縣市之表現亦大相逕庭，顯示各地區存在失業差異現象。過去研究較少以空間觀點觀察失業相關議題，此外，關於區域差異因素對失業率之影響鮮少納入政府規劃因素。因此，本研究以空間自相關分析方法檢測失業是否具有空間相關性及聚集性，並應用長期追蹤資料（panel data）迴歸模型，以人口、產業、所得、都市化程度及政府規劃因素，分析台灣22縣市1988至2008近二十年來各區域差異因素對失業率之影響，藉由實證結果提出相關都市及產業政策之建議。實證結果發現，台灣失業分佈具有一定程度的空間相關性，且高低失業率在各縣市間亦有聚集現象。再者，依固定效果模型實證結果發現人口數、工業及服務業就業者百分比、都市化程度、工業區面積百分比與失業率間呈現顯著正向關係；經濟發展支出百分比與失業率呈現顯著負向關係；區域固定效果，即排除自變數影響下，各縣市本身區域特質對失業率之影響，結果顯示台北縣及桃園縣之係數為負向，南投縣、嘉義縣、台東縣與花蓮縣之係數為正向；時間固定效果方面，大部分年度皆具顯著性，且係數有由負轉正之趨勢，代表特定時間衝擊會對失業率造成影響。 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) Differences in regional development have been a focus on national policies. Recently, there is a increasing trend in the unemployment rate in Taiwan, and it also differs from cities and counties, indicating there exists differences in regional unemployment. Previous research rarely combined unemployment issues with spatial perspective. In addition, the effect of regional discrepant factors on the unemployment rate rarely take government planning factors into account. Therefore, this study uses spatial autocorrelation analysis to detect whether unemployment has spatial correlation and aggregation, and applies panel data regression model with population, industry, income, the degree of urbanization, and government planning factors to analyze the effect of regional discrepant factors on the unemployment rate in Taiwan`s 22 cities and counties from 1988 to 2008. According to the empirical results, we come up with some urban and industrial policy proposals. Empirical results indicate that the distribution of unemployment in Taiwan has a certain degree of spatial correlation, and high or low unemployment rate also has aggregation among cities and counties. Furthermore, according to the results of the fixed effects model, population, the percentage of industrial and service sector employment, the degree of urbanization, and the percentage of industrial area show a significant positive relationship with unemployment rate. The percentage of expenditures for economic development shows a significant negative relationship with unemployment rate. Region-specific fixed effect, which exclude the influence of independent variables, is the effect of regional characteristics of counties and cities on the unemployment rate. This result shows the coefficient of Taipei County and Taoyuan County is negative, and the coefficient of Nantou County, Chiayi County, Taitung County and Hualien County is positive. As for time-specific fixed effect, almost all years are significant, and the coefficient has the trend from negative to positive, indicating that a particular time impact will affect the unemployment rate. en_US dc.description.tableofcontents 第一章 緒論 1第一節 研究動機與目的 1第二節 研究範圍與內容 5第三節 研究方法與流程 7第二章 相關理論與文獻回顧 10第一節 區域發展相關理論 10第二節 失業現象之意涵與相關影響因素 16第三節 失業之區域差異性與空間相關性 26第四節 空間自相關分析 31第五節 小結 36第三章 台灣失業現況與趨勢分析 37第一節 台灣整體失業現況分析 37第二節 台灣縣市別失業變化分析 39第三節 小結 44第四章 研究設計 45第一節 資料處理與敘述統計 45第二節 空間自相關檢測 52第三節 變數選取與模型設定 54第五章 實證結果分析 61第一節 空間自相關檢測結果 61第二節 長期追蹤資料迴歸模型實證結果 67第三節 實證結果分析 70第四節 小結 80第六章 結論與建議 81第一節 結論 81第二節 建議 85參考文獻 88 圖目錄圖1-1 研究流程圖 9圖3-1 台灣歷年失業率趨勢圖 38圖3-2 北部區域縣市之歷年失業率趨勢圖 39圖3-3 中部區域縣市之歷年失業率趨勢圖 40圖3-4 南部區域縣市之歷年失業率趨勢圖 41圖3-5 東部區域縣市之歷年失業率趨勢圖 42 表目錄表2-1 影響失業率之相關因素與相關研究 24表2-2 LISA值說明表 34表2-3 使用空間自相關分析之國內相關文獻 35表3-1 北、中、南、東部區域各縣市失業率歷年變化統計表 43表4-1 變數名稱與資料來源 46表4-2 變數單位與資料時間 46表4-3 各變數基本敘述統計―縣市別 50表4-4 各變數基本敘述統計―年度別 51表4-5 模型變數定義與預期符號 58表5-1 全域型Moran’s I檢測結果 63表5-2 LISA分析之結果整理 65表5-3 1992、1996、2000、2004年之LISA Cluster、Significance Map 66表5-4 二元固定效果模型實證結果 67表5-5 各縣市區域固定效果（個別特質效果） 68表5-6 各年度時間固定效果（時間特質效果） 69表5-7 各變數預期符號之實證結果 73 zh_TW dc.format.extent 1149273 bytes - dc.format.mimetype application/pdf - dc.language.iso en_US - dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0097257010 en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) 失業率 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 區域差異因素 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 空間自相關 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 長期追蹤資料 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) Unemployment rate en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Regional discrepant factor en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Spatial autocorrelation en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Panel data en_US dc.title (題名) 區域差異性對失業率影響之研究 zh_TW dc.title (題名) The effect of regional differences on unemployment rate en_US dc.type (資料類型) thesis en dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 一、中文部分王春源，2008，『台灣總體經濟發展與失業問題分析』，台北市：三民書局。王姿尹，2009，「住宅整建之不動產價格外溢效果分析」，國立政治大學地政研究所碩士論文。行政院經濟建設委員會，2001，「地方政府在區域發展中所扮演之角色」，行政院經濟建設委員會，全國經濟發展會議90年1月。江豐富、劉克智，2005，「台灣縣市失業率的長期追蹤研究：1987-2001」，『人口學刊』，第31期，頁1-39。林主恩，2002，「全民健保的實施對醫療資源分布之空間統計分析」，國立台灣大學經濟研究所碩士論文。辛炳隆，2001，「英荷韓政府因應失業問題之作法評析」，『主要國家產經政策動態季刊』，第2期。辛炳隆，2009，「台灣失業問題與對策」，『新世紀智庫論壇』，第45期。李士杰，2009，「台灣地區鄉鎮市地價影響因素之探討－空間計量之應用」，世新大學管理學院經濟學系碩士論文。李其桓，2003，「中國大陸西部區域經濟發展與策略研究」，國立中山大學大陸研究所碩士論文。紀凱婷，2008，「台北市新推個案訂價之時間與空間相依性分析」，國立政治大學地政學系碩士論文。陶在樸，2001，「失業現象的宏觀詮釋」，財團法人國家政策研究基金會，國改評論，科經（評）090-006號。陳怡如，2009，「A Study of Regional Unemployment Rates in Taiwan」，國立中央大學產業經濟研究所博士論文。陳奕奇、劉子銘，2008，「教育成就與城鄉差距：空間群聚之分析」，『人口學刊』，第37期，頁1-43。陳振光，2008，「中國的區域差異」，香港大學城市規劃及環境管理研究中心。郭浩然、蘇慧貞、龍世俊，2007，「氣象因子變化及異常天候對台灣地區傳染性疾病之衝擊」，行政院國家科學委員會研究計畫。曾黛如、謝敏文，2008，「促使老舊工業區再生活化產業發展」，台灣經濟論衡，第6卷，第4期，頁36-43。黃仁德、鍾建屏，2008，「台灣產業結構變動與失業率關係之探討」，『法制論叢』，第41期，頁67-108。黃紹東，2004，「台南市東區住宅價格之空間自我迴歸分析」，國立成功大學都市計劃研究所碩士論文。黃雅燕，2006，「中國大陸地級城市經濟成長收斂性假說驗證─空間 Panel計量的應用」，世新大學財務金融學系碩士論文。黃聖峰，2004，「台灣各縣市經濟指標空間自相關分析—兼論薪資收斂性假說」，世新大學管理學院經濟學系碩士論文。黃煜彬，2005，「區域所得空間分佈之時空變遷情形之探討」，國立成功大學都市計劃研究所碩士論文。張隆宏，2005，「景氣波動與產業結構調整對台灣失業率之影響」，『經濟情勢暨評論』，第11卷，第1期，頁98-115。曾菁敏，2006，「空地再利用及鄰里土地開發對新建住宅土地價格影響之研究－台南市之觀察與實證」，『規劃學報』，第33期，頁21-37。曾菁敏，2008，「空地開發外部性對住宅土地價格影響之研究─台南市的實證分析」，國立政治大學地政研究所博士論文。鄒克萬，2000，「區域人口分布之時空分析」，『台灣土地科學學報』，第1期，頁33-50。詹火生、林慧芬，2002，「失業率攀升中的挑戰與對策」，財團法人國家政策研究基金會，國政研究報告，社會（研）091-033號。鄔建國，2003，『景觀生態學―格局、過程、尺度與等級』，台北：五南。廖德琦，2004，「擴大服務業每年可增加十五萬人就業」，『新台灣新聞週刊』，第414期。 劉君雅、鄧志松、唐代彪，2009，「臺灣低生育率之空間分析」，『人口學刊』，第 39期，頁119-155。薛益忠，2006，「都市在區域發展上的角色」，『華岡地理學報』，第19期，頁1-21。鄭婷尹，2009，「捷運、人口、產業對空氣品質之影響－以台北市為例」，國立政治大學地政研究所碩士論文。謝明瑞，2002，「失業問題與失業政策」，財團法人國家政策研究基金會，國政研究報告，財金（評）091-256號。謝純瑩、周國屏，2002，「自相關分析於人口老化時空變遷之研究」，『人口學刊』，第25期，頁91-119。戴安蕙，2003，「臺灣北部區域空間經濟變遷之研究（1970-1999）」，中國文化大學地學研究所博士論文。 龔書玉，2009，「縣市內部人口遷徙影響因素之研究」，國立台北大學不動產與城鄉環境學系碩士論文。二、外文部分Anselin, L., 1988, Spatial econometrics methods and models, Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht.Anselin, L., 1995, “Local Indicators of Spatial Association: LISA”, Geographical Analysis, 27(2): 93-115.Aschauer, D., 1989, “Is public infrastructure productive?”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 23: 177–200.Badinger, H. and Url, T., 2002, “Determinants of Regional Unemployment: Some Evidence from Austria”, Regional Stidies, 36: 977-988.Bande and Karanassou, 2009, “Labour market flexibility and regional unemployment rate dynamics: Spain 1980-1995”, The Annals of Regional Science, 88(1): 181-207.Bar-El, R., 2006, “Inter-regional labor market equilibrium: another pattern of spatial mismatch”, The Annals of Regional Science, 40: 393-405.Baum, S. and O`Connor, K., 2005, “Regional Population and Employment Change in Australia 1991-2001: Inertia in the Face of Rapid Change?”, GeoJournal, 62(1-2): 85. 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