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題名 區域差異性對失業率影響之研究
The effect of regional differences on unemployment rate
作者 陳妍汎
貢獻者 劉小蘭
陳妍汎
關鍵詞 失業率
區域差異因素
空間自相關
長期追蹤資料
Unemployment rate
Regional discrepant factor
Spatial autocorrelation
Panel data
日期 2009
上傳時間 3-Sep-2013 14:50:27 (UTC+8)
摘要 區域發展差異現象一直以來為國家政策所關注，而近年來台灣地區失業率有逐漸上升的趨勢，各縣市之表現亦大相逕庭，顯示各地區存在失業差異現象。過去研究較少以空間觀點觀察失業相關議題，此外，關於區域差異因素對失業率之影響鮮少納入政府規劃因素。因此，本研究以空間自相關分析方法檢測失業是否具有空間相關性及聚集性，並應用長期追蹤資料（panel data）迴歸模型，以人口、產業、所得、都市化程度及政府規劃因素，分析台灣22縣市1988至2008近二十年來各區域差異因素對失業率之影響，藉由實證結果提出相關都市及產業政策之建議。實證結果發現，台灣失業分佈具有一定程度的空間相關性，且高低失業率在各縣市間亦有聚集現象。再者，依固定效果模型實證結果發現人口數、工業及服務業就業者百分比、都市化程度、工業區面積百分比與失業率間呈現顯著正向關係；經濟發展支出百分比與失業率呈現顯著負向關係；區域固定效果，即排除自變數影響下，各縣市本身區域特質對失業率之影響，結果顯示台北縣及桃園縣之係數為負向，南投縣、嘉義縣、台東縣與花蓮縣之係數為正向；時間固定效果方面，大部分年度皆具顯著性，且係數有由負轉正之趨勢，代表特定時間衝擊會對失業率造成影響。
Differences in regional development have been a focus on national policies. Recently, there is a increasing trend in the unemployment rate in Taiwan, and it also differs from cities and counties, indicating there exists differences in regional unemployment. Previous research rarely combined unemployment issues with spatial perspective. In addition, the effect of regional discrepant factors on the unemployment rate rarely take government planning factors into account. Therefore, this study uses spatial autocorrelation analysis to detect whether unemployment has spatial correlation and aggregation, and applies panel data regression model with population, industry, income, the degree of urbanization, and government planning factors to analyze the effect of regional discrepant factors on the unemployment rate in Taiwan`s 22 cities and counties from 1988 to 2008. According to the empirical results, we come up with some urban and industrial policy proposals. Empirical results indicate that the distribution of unemployment in Taiwan has a certain degree of spatial correlation, and high or low unemployment rate also has aggregation among cities and counties. Furthermore, according to the results of the fixed effects model, population, the percentage of industrial and service sector employment, the degree of urbanization, and the percentage of industrial area show a significant positive relationship with unemployment rate. The percentage of expenditures for economic development shows a significant negative relationship with unemployment rate. Region-specific fixed effect, which exclude the influence of independent variables, is the effect of regional characteristics of counties and cities on the unemployment rate. This result shows the coefficient of Taipei County and Taoyuan County is negative, and the coefficient of Nantou County, Chiayi County, Taitung County and Hualien County is positive. As for time-specific fixed effect, almost all years are significant, and the coefficient has the trend from negative to positive, indicating that a particular time impact will affect the unemployment rate.
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曾菁敏，2008，「空地開發外部性對住宅土地價格影響之研究─台南市的實證分析」，國立政治大學地政研究所博士論文。
鄒克萬，2000，「區域人口分布之時空分析」，『台灣土地科學學報』，第1期，頁33-50。
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鄔建國，2003，『景觀生態學―格局、過程、尺度與等級』，台北：五南。
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描述 碩士
國立政治大學
地政研究所
97257010
98
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0097257010
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 劉小蘭zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) 陳妍汎zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) 陳妍汎zh_TW
dc.date (日期) 2009en_US
dc.date.accessioned 3-Sep-2013 14:50:27 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 3-Sep-2013 14:50:27 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 3-Sep-2013 14:50:27 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0097257010en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/59813-
dc.description (描述) 碩士zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 地政研究所zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 97257010zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 98zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) 區域發展差異現象一直以來為國家政策所關注，而近年來台灣地區失業率有逐漸上升的趨勢，各縣市之表現亦大相逕庭，顯示各地區存在失業差異現象。過去研究較少以空間觀點觀察失業相關議題，此外，關於區域差異因素對失業率之影響鮮少納入政府規劃因素。因此，本研究以空間自相關分析方法檢測失業是否具有空間相關性及聚集性，並應用長期追蹤資料（panel data）迴歸模型，以人口、產業、所得、都市化程度及政府規劃因素，分析台灣22縣市1988至2008近二十年來各區域差異因素對失業率之影響，藉由實證結果提出相關都市及產業政策之建議。實證結果發現，台灣失業分佈具有一定程度的空間相關性，且高低失業率在各縣市間亦有聚集現象。再者，依固定效果模型實證結果發現人口數、工業及服務業就業者百分比、都市化程度、工業區面積百分比與失業率間呈現顯著正向關係；經濟發展支出百分比與失業率呈現顯著負向關係；區域固定效果，即排除自變數影響下，各縣市本身區域特質對失業率之影響，結果顯示台北縣及桃園縣之係數為負向，南投縣、嘉義縣、台東縣與花蓮縣之係數為正向；時間固定效果方面，大部分年度皆具顯著性，且係數有由負轉正之趨勢，代表特定時間衝擊會對失業率造成影響。zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) Differences in regional development have been a focus on national policies. Recently, there is a increasing trend in the unemployment rate in Taiwan, and it also differs from cities and counties, indicating there exists differences in regional unemployment. Previous research rarely combined unemployment issues with spatial perspective. In addition, the effect of regional discrepant factors on the unemployment rate rarely take government planning factors into account. Therefore, this study uses spatial autocorrelation analysis to detect whether unemployment has spatial correlation and aggregation, and applies panel data regression model with population, industry, income, the degree of urbanization, and government planning factors to analyze the effect of regional discrepant factors on the unemployment rate in Taiwan`s 22 cities and counties from 1988 to 2008. According to the empirical results, we come up with some urban and industrial policy proposals. Empirical results indicate that the distribution of unemployment in Taiwan has a certain degree of spatial correlation, and high or low unemployment rate also has aggregation among cities and counties. Furthermore, according to the results of the fixed effects model, population, the percentage of industrial and service sector employment, the degree of urbanization, and the percentage of industrial area show a significant positive relationship with unemployment rate. The percentage of expenditures for economic development shows a significant negative relationship with unemployment rate. Region-specific fixed effect, which exclude the influence of independent variables, is the effect of regional characteristics of counties and cities on the unemployment rate. This result shows the coefficient of Taipei County and Taoyuan County is negative, and the coefficient of Nantou County, Chiayi County, Taitung County and Hualien County is positive. As for time-specific fixed effect, almost all years are significant, and the coefficient has the trend from negative to positive, indicating that a particular time impact will affect the unemployment rate.en_US
dc.description.tableofcontents 第一章 緒論 1
第一節 研究動機與目的 1
第二節 研究範圍與內容 5
第三節 研究方法與流程 7
第二章 相關理論與文獻回顧 10
第一節 區域發展相關理論 10
第二節 失業現象之意涵與相關影響因素 16
第三節 失業之區域差異性與空間相關性 26
第四節 空間自相關分析 31
第五節 小結 36
第三章 台灣失業現況與趨勢分析 37
第一節 台灣整體失業現況分析 37
第二節 台灣縣市別失業變化分析 39
第三節 小結 44
第四章 研究設計 45
第一節 資料處理與敘述統計 45
第二節 空間自相關檢測 52
第三節 變數選取與模型設定 54
第五章 實證結果分析 61
第一節 空間自相關檢測結果 61
第二節 長期追蹤資料迴歸模型實證結果 67
第三節 實證結果分析 70
第四節 小結 80
第六章 結論與建議 81
第一節 結論 81
第二節 建議 85
參考文獻 88


圖目錄

圖1-1 研究流程圖 9
圖3-1 台灣歷年失業率趨勢圖 38
圖3-2 北部區域縣市之歷年失業率趨勢圖 39
圖3-3 中部區域縣市之歷年失業率趨勢圖 40
圖3-4 南部區域縣市之歷年失業率趨勢圖 41
圖3-5 東部區域縣市之歷年失業率趨勢圖 42



表目錄

表2-1 影響失業率之相關因素與相關研究 24
表2-2 LISA值說明表 34
表2-3 使用空間自相關分析之國內相關文獻 35
表3-1 北、中、南、東部區域各縣市失業率歷年變化統計表 43
表4-1 變數名稱與資料來源 46
表4-2 變數單位與資料時間 46
表4-3 各變數基本敘述統計―縣市別 50
表4-4 各變數基本敘述統計―年度別 51
表4-5 模型變數定義與預期符號 58
表5-1 全域型Moran’s I檢測結果 63
表5-2 LISA分析之結果整理 65
表5-3 1992、1996、2000、2004年之LISA Cluster、Significance Map 66
表5-4 二元固定效果模型實證結果 67
表5-5 各縣市區域固定效果（個別特質效果） 68
表5-6 各年度時間固定效果（時間特質效果） 69
表5-7 各變數預期符號之實證結果 73		zh_TW
dc.format.extent 1149273 bytes-
dc.format.mimetype application/pdf-
dc.language.iso en_US-
dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0097257010en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 失業率zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 區域差異因素zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 空間自相關zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 長期追蹤資料zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Unemployment rateen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Regional discrepant factoren_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Spatial autocorrelationen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Panel dataen_US
dc.title (題名) 區域差異性對失業率影響之研究zh_TW
dc.title (題名) The effect of regional differences on unemployment rateen_US
dc.type (資料類型) thesisen
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 一、中文部分
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