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題名 議價空間與住宅不動產市場流動性之研究
Price concession of the residential housing markets
作者 范清益
Fan, Ching Yi Ken
貢獻者 林左裕
Lin, Tsoyu Calvin
范清益
Fan, Ching Yi Ken
關鍵詞 議價空間
銷售期間
流動性
住宅不動產議價空間模型
表價
持有成本
Price concession
Time on market
Housing liquidity
Holding cost
Listing price
日期 2009
上傳時間 3-Sep-2013 14:50:38 (UTC+8)
摘要 不動產由於具有異質性、不可移動性與昂貴性等特性，相較於其他資產而言，最獨特的風險為「流動性風險」(liquidity risk)，也因此其銷售期間比其他標的較長，議價空間也較大。以往探討不動產流動性的研究大都以在市場上的銷售期間(time on the market, TOM)為主，然本研究認為銷售期間和賣方的表價（listing price）與買方心中的價格（offer price）密切相關，買方決策的過程勢必受到賣方表價與本身心中價格之影響，進而決定該不動產在市場之流動性。故本研究則嘗試以賣方表價與最後成交價(transaction price)間的議價空間，探討不動產市場之流動性。議價空間愈大，表示不動產標的在當時市場之流動性愈低，致使賣方愈能接受低於表價的買方出價及成交價。
本研究透過搜尋理論建立住宅不動產議價空間模型，並以實際市場交易資料進行實證分析，探討房屋本身的屬性、總體市場因素、賣方持有的成本、區位因素與賣方定價因素等，對於買賣雙方議價空間之影響，藉以觀察理論與實證是否相符。其中以房屋總坪數與屋齡代表房屋屬性，以房租成長率與經濟成長率代表市場情況，並以利率代表賣方持有成本。實證結果顯示，屋齡太久或賣方定價過高的不動產，其議價空間愈大，流動性愈差；房租成長率和經濟成長率皆與議價空間呈負相關，表市場景氣愈好，議價空間愈小，賣方在議價過程中較能堅守其表價；又利率與議價空間呈正相關，表賣方持有不動產的成本越高，越能接受較大的議價空間；而總坪數愈大及區位較佳之不動產，其議價空間越小，可能受豪宅市場效應以及區域抗跌性有關。此實證結果與過去利用銷售期間衡量不動產市場流動性的搜尋理論相符，也驗證議價空間實可為衡量不動產市場流動性的新指標，並可降低利用銷售期間分析的研究困境。本研究成果不僅可供不動產賣方定價策略、買方議價時機之參考，亦希望透過本研究對議價空間與不動產市場流動性之研究，期望政府儘速建立與公開不動產交易平台，俾利增進不動產市場之流動性，更能牽動不動產市場與整體經濟市場之成長。
The study suggests that not only time on market (TOM) but also price concession between the listing and contract prices could measure housing market liquidity. Departed from past studies, this paper develops theory and constructs a model named Residential Housing Price Concession Model to examine whether key factors influenced housing market liquidity significantly from past studies would have the same effect on price concession. The model includes the listing price of house, the macroeconomic data, the cost of the search and other housing characters in empirical model. Results show that listing price, cost of search and age of house have the predicted positive coefficients, and macroeconomic data , squares of house and location factor are found to be negatively related to the price concession. The corresponding conclusion with time on market (TOM) examined by past studies explains that the price concession also could measure housing market liquidity.
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林祖嘉，1994，「價格分散與搜尋均衡：在台灣地區住宅市場上之驗證」，『經濟論文叢刊』，22：2，237-269。
林秋瑾、黃佩玲，1995，「住宅價格與總體經濟變數關係之研究-以向量自我迴歸模式(VAR) 進行實證」，『政大學報』。
張金鶚，1995 年，「台灣地區住宅價格指數之研究」, 行政院經濟建設委員會委託研究。
林秋瑾，1996，「穩健性住宅租金模式之探討-異常點之分析」，『住宅學報』，4，51-72。
林秋瑾、楊宗憲、張金鶚，1996，「住宅價格指數之研究—以台北市為例」，『住宅學報』。
李春長，1996，「房地產仲介市場交易行為之研究」，國立政治大學地政學系博士論文。
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李月華，1997，「台北市住宅區成屋交易價格影響因素之研究」，『崇右學報』，6，130-142。
彭建文、張金鶚，2000，「總體經濟對房地產景氣影響之研究」，『國家科學委員會研究彙刊：人文社會與科學』，10：3，330-343。
簡淨珍、張金鶚、林秋瑾，2000，「以替代性觀點看租賃與自有市場之關係」，『2000年中華民國住宅學會第九屆年會論文集』，103-121。
蔡曜如，2003，「我國房地產市場之發展、影響暨政府因應對策」，『中央銀行季刊』，25：4，31-64。
黃心儀、彭建文，2004，「住宅租賃市場中房東決策行為之研究」，國立台北大學地政學系碩士論文。
廖仲仁、張金鶚，2004，「搜尋成本與定錨行為對於購屋者價格貼水之影響」，『住宅學報』，13：2，47-62。
周美伶、張金鶚，2004，「購屋搜尋期間影響因素之研究」， 『管理評論』，24：1，133-150。
曾建穎、張金鶚、花敬群，2005，「不同空間、時間住宅租金與其房價關聯性之研究－臺北地區之實證現象分析」，『住宅學報』，14：2，27-49。
彭建文、賴鳴美，2006，「賣方定價策略對成交價格之影響分析」，『住宅學報』，15：1，1-20。
鄒欣樺、張金鶚、花敬群，2007，「建商不動產表價與議價策略之探討：景氣時機、個案區位、及建商類型分析」，『管理評論』，26：3，47-69。
許淑媛、張金鶚，2009，「住宅個案價格水準與價格分散之時空影響」，國立政治大學地政學系碩士論文。
Asabere, P. K., Huffman, F. E., Mehdian, S., 1992, “Mispricing and Optimal Time on the Market”, Journal of Real Estate Research, 8:1: 149-155.
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Anglin, P. M., 1997, “Determinants of Buyer Search in a Housing Market”, Journal of Real Estate Economics, 25: 567-589.
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描述 碩士
國立政治大學
地政研究所
97257013
98
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0097257013
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 林左裕zh_TW
dc.contributor.advisor Lin, Tsoyu Calvinen_US
dc.contributor.author (Authors) 范清益zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) Fan, Ching Yi Kenen_US
dc.creator (作者) 范清益zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) Fan, Ching Yi Kenen_US
dc.date (日期) 2009en_US
dc.date.accessioned 3-Sep-2013 14:50:38 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 3-Sep-2013 14:50:38 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 3-Sep-2013 14:50:38 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0097257013en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/59814-
dc.description (描述) 碩士zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 地政研究所zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 97257013zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 98zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) 不動產由於具有異質性、不可移動性與昂貴性等特性，相較於其他資產而言，最獨特的風險為「流動性風險」(liquidity risk)，也因此其銷售期間比其他標的較長，議價空間也較大。以往探討不動產流動性的研究大都以在市場上的銷售期間(time on the market, TOM)為主，然本研究認為銷售期間和賣方的表價（listing price）與買方心中的價格（offer price）密切相關，買方決策的過程勢必受到賣方表價與本身心中價格之影響，進而決定該不動產在市場之流動性。故本研究則嘗試以賣方表價與最後成交價(transaction price)間的議價空間，探討不動產市場之流動性。議價空間愈大，表示不動產標的在當時市場之流動性愈低，致使賣方愈能接受低於表價的買方出價及成交價。
本研究透過搜尋理論建立住宅不動產議價空間模型，並以實際市場交易資料進行實證分析，探討房屋本身的屬性、總體市場因素、賣方持有的成本、區位因素與賣方定價因素等，對於買賣雙方議價空間之影響，藉以觀察理論與實證是否相符。其中以房屋總坪數與屋齡代表房屋屬性，以房租成長率與經濟成長率代表市場情況，並以利率代表賣方持有成本。實證結果顯示，屋齡太久或賣方定價過高的不動產，其議價空間愈大，流動性愈差；房租成長率和經濟成長率皆與議價空間呈負相關，表市場景氣愈好，議價空間愈小，賣方在議價過程中較能堅守其表價；又利率與議價空間呈正相關，表賣方持有不動產的成本越高，越能接受較大的議價空間；而總坪數愈大及區位較佳之不動產，其議價空間越小，可能受豪宅市場效應以及區域抗跌性有關。此實證結果與過去利用銷售期間衡量不動產市場流動性的搜尋理論相符，也驗證議價空間實可為衡量不動產市場流動性的新指標，並可降低利用銷售期間分析的研究困境。本研究成果不僅可供不動產賣方定價策略、買方議價時機之參考，亦希望透過本研究對議價空間與不動產市場流動性之研究，期望政府儘速建立與公開不動產交易平台，俾利增進不動產市場之流動性，更能牽動不動產市場與整體經濟市場之成長。		zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) The study suggests that not only time on market (TOM) but also price concession between the listing and contract prices could measure housing market liquidity. Departed from past studies, this paper develops theory and constructs a model named Residential Housing Price Concession Model to examine whether key factors influenced housing market liquidity significantly from past studies would have the same effect on price concession. The model includes the listing price of house, the macroeconomic data, the cost of the search and other housing characters in empirical model. Results show that listing price, cost of search and age of house have the predicted positive coefficients, and macroeconomic data , squares of house and location factor are found to be negatively related to the price concession. The corresponding conclusion with time on market (TOM) examined by past studies explains that the price concession also could measure housing market liquidity.en_US
dc.description.tableofcontents 第一章 緒論 1
第一節 研究動機與研究目的 1
第二節 研究問題與研究方法 5
第三節 研究範圍與名詞界定 7
第四節 研究架構與研究流程 9
第二章 理論基礎與文獻回顧 11
第一節 市場搜尋行為之理論基礎 11
第二節 不動產市場流動性與議價空間之相關文獻 15
第三節 研究假說 20
第三章 模型建立與預期效果 25
第一節 模型建立 25
第二節 預期效果 30
第四章 資料說明與敘述統計 32
第一節 資料來源與篩選 32
第二節 區位劃分與議價空間之衡量 34
第三節 敘述統計 37
第五章 模型實證分析與結果 38
第一節 模型實證建立 38
第二節 實證結果 43
第六章 結論與建議 47
第一節 結論 47
第二節 建議 50
參考文獻 52		zh_TW
dc.format.extent 545907 bytes-
dc.format.mimetype application/pdf-
dc.language.iso en_US-
dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0097257013en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 議價空間zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 銷售期間zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 流動性zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 住宅不動產議價空間模型zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 表價zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 持有成本zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Price concessionen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Time on marketen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Housing liquidityen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Holding costen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Listing priceen_US
dc.title (題名) 議價空間與住宅不動產市場流動性之研究zh_TW
dc.title (題名) Price concession of the residential housing marketsen_US
dc.type (資料類型) thesisen
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 林祖嘉，1990，「反向巢型多項式Logit模型下的住屋需求與租買選擇」，『經濟論文』，18：1，137-158。
林祖嘉，1994，「價格分散與搜尋均衡：在台灣地區住宅市場上之驗證」，『經濟論文叢刊』，22：2，237-269。
林秋瑾、黃佩玲，1995，「住宅價格與總體經濟變數關係之研究-以向量自我迴歸模式(VAR) 進行實證」，『政大學報』。
張金鶚，1995 年，「台灣地區住宅價格指數之研究」, 行政院經濟建設委員會委託研究。
林秋瑾，1996，「穩健性住宅租金模式之探討-異常點之分析」，『住宅學報』，4，51-72。
林秋瑾、楊宗憲、張金鶚，1996，「住宅價格指數之研究—以台北市為例」，『住宅學報』。
李春長，1996，「房地產仲介市場交易行為之研究」，國立政治大學地政學系博士論文。
李春長、張金鶚、林祖嘉，1997，「房屋交易市場上銷售期間之研究：存活模型之應用」，『國家科學委員會研究彙刊：人文及社會科學』，7：3，420-437。
李月華，1997，「台北市住宅區成屋交易價格影響因素之研究」，『崇右學報』，6，130-142。
彭建文、張金鶚，2000，「總體經濟對房地產景氣影響之研究」，『國家科學委員會研究彙刊：人文社會與科學』，10：3，330-343。
簡淨珍、張金鶚、林秋瑾，2000，「以替代性觀點看租賃與自有市場之關係」，『2000年中華民國住宅學會第九屆年會論文集』，103-121。
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