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題名 預售屋、新成屋與中古屋之偏好選擇
Housing choice among presale houses, newly constructed houses and existing houses.
作者 王俊鈞
Wang, Jiun Jiun
貢獻者 張金鶚
王俊鈞
Wang, Jiun Jiun
關鍵詞 住宅選擇
混合多項羅吉特模型
知覺風險
知覺品質
housing choice
mixed multinomial logit model
perceived risk
perceived quality
日期 2009
上傳時間 3-Sep-2013 14:51:12 (UTC+8)
摘要 住宅選擇是每一個家戶都會面臨到的問題，過去文獻發現購屋者先選擇租屋或購屋，若決定購屋，則先決定於何區位購屋，然後再決定購買何種房屋類型之房屋，然而卻未曾提及購屋者於不同市場類型住宅間之選擇。預售屋、新成屋以及中古屋等不同市場類型之住宅，各自隱含不同的效用及風險，影響著購屋者之選擇，因此本研究試圖討論購屋者於不同市場類型住宅間之選擇與偏好。
本研究採用內政部營建署「住宅需求動向調查」資料，利用混合多項羅吉特模型探討不同限制條件下，預售屋、新成屋與中古屋之個體選擇行為。實證結果顯示，投資者較偏好於購買知覺風險較高之預售屋，期待以高知覺風險換取高的報酬；教育程度較高者，因對居住品質要求愈高，因此傾向於選擇設備新穎之預售屋與新成屋；家戶平均月所得較高之購屋者，負擔能力較高，因此選擇總價較高之預售屋機率較高，其次為新成屋。此外，搜尋頻率愈高者，選擇預售屋之機率愈高，因預售屋無實體存在，預售屋購屋者為降低其知覺風險，將花費更高之搜尋成本。在價格彈性分析部分，實證結果顯示預售屋之競爭力最高，但預售屋之受衝擊力亦最高，而中古屋之競爭力於三種市場類型中居次，但中古屋衝擊力最小，因此，當單價屬性發生變動時，較不影響中古屋購屋者之選擇，但卻大幅影響預售屋購屋者之選擇機率。
Every household would face housing choice, the past housing choice study founded that households decided tenure choice first, if they decides to buy a house, they first decided on what location, and then decided what type of housing to buy, but it has not been mentioned the housing choice among different residential market types. Pre-sale houses, newly constructed houses and existing houses implied different effectiveness and risks, affecting the choice of homebuyers. This article tried to discuss homeowners’ choice among different residential market types.
This study use Construction and Planning Agency, "Housing Demand Survey of 2009" data, use mixed multinomial logit model, investigated under different constraints, housing choice behavior among pre-sale houses, newly constructed houses and existing houses. The empirical results showed that investors prefer higher perceived risk in buying pre-sale housing, looking for a high perceived risk and high rewards; higher education level, due to the higher quality requirements for living, so they preferred pre-sale houses and newly constructed houses. Homebuyers which have higher average monthly household income, have more affordable ability, so the probability of choosing pre-sale houses are much higher, followed by the newly constructed houses. In addition, the higher search frequency were more likely to choose pre-sale houses because pre-sale houses for sale no physical presence, pre-sale housing homebuyers in order to reduce their perceived risk, would spend more search costs. In the price elasticity analysis, empirical results showed that the pre-sale houses had the highest competitiveness, but the impact force was also the highest, while the existing houses market, the competitiveness of the third types was the second place, and the competitiveness of the existing houses was the smallest. Thus, when a change in unit price attribute, does not affect existing houses homebuyers, but significantly affected the choice probability of pre-sale houses homebuyers.
參考文獻 白金安、張金鶚，1996，「預期景氣變動對預售屋與成屋價格差異影響之研究」，『中國財務學刊』3(2)：99-114。
朱芳妮、張金鶚、陳淑美，2008，「已購屋者及購屋搜尋者之購屋需求決策比較分析－兼論顯示性偏好及敘述性偏好之差異」，『都市與計畫』35(4)：pp339-359
林祖嘉、陳建良，2005，「租買選擇、貸款選擇、與世代組成：巢式LOGIT模型之應用」，『住宅學報』14(1)：pp1-20
李泓見、張金鶚、花敬群，2006，「台北都會區不同住宅類型價差之研究」，『台灣土地研究』，9(1)：pp63-87
李奇勳，2007，「知覺風險對消費者知覺價值之形成所扮演角色之探討」，『管理學報』24(2)：pp167-190
花敬群、張金鶚，1993，「房地產投機行為之研究」，『經社法制論叢』11：pp327-359
周美伶、張金鶚，2005，「購屋搜尋期間影響因素之研究」，『管理評論』24(1)：pp133-150
周美伶、張金鶚，2005，「購屋者外部資訊搜尋管到選擇行為與搜尋期間之探討」，『住宅學報』14(2)，pp1-25
周美伶、張金鶚，2004，「預售屋、新成屋與中古屋住宅選擇行為之探討」，『中華民國住宅學會論文集』10，pp223-234
封德台、謝雅菱，2006，「製造來源國與品牌名稱對消費者購買意願影響之研究─以國際性服飾品牌為例」，『經營管理論叢』， 2(1)：pp47-63
陳彥仲，1997，「住宅選擇之程序性決策模式」，『住宅學報』5：pp37-49
袁淑湄，2003，「應用混合Logit模型探討台灣家戶住宅選擇之研究」，國立成功大學都市計畫研究所碩士論文。
張金鶚、王健安、陳憶茹，2008，「法拍屋折價之謎：市場競爭程度是否更能解釋折價?」，『交大管理學報』28(2)：pp1-39
張金鶚、范垂爐，1992，「房地產真實交易價格之研究」，『住宅學報』，1：pp75-97
張金鶚，2003，『房地產投資與市場分析理論與實務 上篇：房地產投資分析』初版，台北市：張金鶚出版：華泰總經銷。
張麗姬，1994，「從遠期契約何現貨的角度論預售屋和成屋的價格關係―以台北市為例」，『住宅學報』，2：pp67-85
梁進龍、陳政平，2009，「咖啡連鎖業之體驗行銷、知覺價值與購買意願關係研究」，『經營管理論叢』，5(1)：pp1-11
游淑滿、曾明遜，2009，「預售屋代銷制度之演進與變遷」，『土地問題研究季刊』8(1)：pp29-40
廖仲仁、張金鶚，2009，「景氣期間購屋市場機制選擇集拍賣市場折價效果之再檢視」，『住宅學報』18(1)：pp1-21
薛立敏、陳綉里，1998，「住宅租擁選擇下家計消費支出之比較」，『住宅學報』7：pp21-40
簡淨珍、張金鶚、林秋瑾，2000，「以替代性觀點看住宅租賃與自有市場之關係」，『中華民國住宅學會第九屆年會論文集』
謝文盛、林素菁，2000，「租稅效果對住宅租買選擇影響之分析」，『住宅學報』9(1)：pp1-17
Dodds, Willian B., Kent B. Monroe and Dhruv Grewal, 1991,“The Effects of Price, Brand and Store Information on Buyers’ Product Evaluations.” Journal of Marketing Research, 28(August), pp.307-319.
Gotlieb, J. B.; Grewal, Dhruv and Brown, Stephen W., 1994, “ Consumer satisfaction and perceived quality: Complementary or divergent constructs?” Journal of Applied Psychology. 9(6), pp875-885.
Gwin C. R., Ong S. E., 2001, “Overcoming Adverse Selection in Buying an Existing Home.” Journal of Property Investment & Finance, 19(3), pp:283-395
Henderson J. V. and Ioannides Y. M., 1983, “ A Model of Housing Tenure Choice.”, The American Economic Review, 73(1), pp. 98-113,
Judith Yates and Daniel F. Mackay, 2006, “Discrete Choice Modelling of Urban Housing Markets: A Critiacl Review and an Application.” Urban Studies, 43(3) 559-581
Kauko Tom, 2006, “Expressions of Housing Consumer Preferences: Proposition for a Research Agenda”, Housing, Theory and Society, 23(2), , pp92–108
Mayer, C. J., 1995 “A Model of Negotiated Sales Applied to Real Estate Auctions,” Journal of Urban Economics. 38(1): 1-22.
Mayer, C. J., 1998, “Assessing the Performance of Real Estate Auctions”, Real Estate Economics. 26(1): 41-66.
McFadden, D., 1975 , “ The Revealed Preference of Government Bureaucracy: Theory.”, The Bell Journal of Economics, 6(2):410-416
McFadden, D., Train, K. and Tye, WB., 1977, “An Application of Diagnostic Test for the Independence from Irrelevant Alternatives Property of the Multinominal Logit Model.” Transportation Research Record 637: 39-46
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McFadden, D., and Train, K., 2000, “Mixed MNL Models for Discrete Response.” Journal of Applied Economics 15: 447-470
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Opoku R. A. and Alhassan G. Abdul-Muhmin, 2010, ”Housing preferences and attribute importance among low-income consumers in Saudi Arabia”，Habitat International 34, pp219-227
Rust R. T, Inman J. J., Jia J. and Zahorik A., 1999, “What You Don’t Know About Customer Perceived Quality: The Role of Customer Expectation Distributions.” Marketing Science 1, pp77-92
Sweeney, Jillian C., Geoffrey N. Soutar, and Lester W. Johnson, 1999, “The Role of Perceived Risk in the Quality-Value Relationship: A Study in a Retail Environment” Journal of Retailing, 75 (1), 77-105.
Srebnik, Livingston, Gordon and King, 1995, “Housing Choice and Community Success for Individuals with Serious and Persistent Mental Illness,” Community Mental Health Journal, 31(2)
Timmermans, Molin and Noortwijk, 2005, “The Geography of Opportunity. Race and Housing Choice in Metropolitan America,” Brookings Institution Press.
Waldman Michael, 1996, “Durable Goods Pricing When Quality Matters,” The Journal of Business 69;489~510
Wang D. and Si-ming Li, 2006, “Socio-economic differentials and stated housing preferences in Guangzhou, China”, Habitat International 30 , pp305-326
Yong Tu and Judy Goldfinch, 1996, “A Two-stage Housing Choice Forecasting Model.” Urban Studies, 33(3), pp517-537
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描述 碩士
國立政治大學
地政研究所
97257019
98
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0097257019
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 張金鶚zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) 王俊鈞zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) Wang, Jiun Jiunen_US
dc.creator (作者) 王俊鈞zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) Wang, Jiun Jiunen_US
dc.date (日期) 2009en_US
dc.date.accessioned 3-Sep-2013 14:51:12 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 3-Sep-2013 14:51:12 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 3-Sep-2013 14:51:12 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0097257019en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/59817-
dc.description (描述) 碩士zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 地政研究所zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 97257019zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 98zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) 住宅選擇是每一個家戶都會面臨到的問題，過去文獻發現購屋者先選擇租屋或購屋，若決定購屋，則先決定於何區位購屋，然後再決定購買何種房屋類型之房屋，然而卻未曾提及購屋者於不同市場類型住宅間之選擇。預售屋、新成屋以及中古屋等不同市場類型之住宅，各自隱含不同的效用及風險，影響著購屋者之選擇，因此本研究試圖討論購屋者於不同市場類型住宅間之選擇與偏好。
本研究採用內政部營建署「住宅需求動向調查」資料，利用混合多項羅吉特模型探討不同限制條件下，預售屋、新成屋與中古屋之個體選擇行為。實證結果顯示，投資者較偏好於購買知覺風險較高之預售屋，期待以高知覺風險換取高的報酬；教育程度較高者，因對居住品質要求愈高，因此傾向於選擇設備新穎之預售屋與新成屋；家戶平均月所得較高之購屋者，負擔能力較高，因此選擇總價較高之預售屋機率較高，其次為新成屋。此外，搜尋頻率愈高者，選擇預售屋之機率愈高，因預售屋無實體存在，預售屋購屋者為降低其知覺風險，將花費更高之搜尋成本。在價格彈性分析部分，實證結果顯示預售屋之競爭力最高，但預售屋之受衝擊力亦最高，而中古屋之競爭力於三種市場類型中居次，但中古屋衝擊力最小，因此，當單價屬性發生變動時，較不影響中古屋購屋者之選擇，但卻大幅影響預售屋購屋者之選擇機率。		zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) Every household would face housing choice, the past housing choice study founded that households decided tenure choice first, if they decides to buy a house, they first decided on what location, and then decided what type of housing to buy, but it has not been mentioned the housing choice among different residential market types. Pre-sale houses, newly constructed houses and existing houses implied different effectiveness and risks, affecting the choice of homebuyers. This article tried to discuss homeowners’ choice among different residential market types.
This study use Construction and Planning Agency, "Housing Demand Survey of 2009" data, use mixed multinomial logit model, investigated under different constraints, housing choice behavior among pre-sale houses, newly constructed houses and existing houses. The empirical results showed that investors prefer higher perceived risk in buying pre-sale housing, looking for a high perceived risk and high rewards; higher education level, due to the higher quality requirements for living, so they preferred pre-sale houses and newly constructed houses. Homebuyers which have higher average monthly household income, have more affordable ability, so the probability of choosing pre-sale houses are much higher, followed by the newly constructed houses. In addition, the higher search frequency were more likely to choose pre-sale houses because pre-sale houses for sale no physical presence, pre-sale housing homebuyers in order to reduce their perceived risk, would spend more search costs. In the price elasticity analysis, empirical results showed that the pre-sale houses had the highest competitiveness, but the impact force was also the highest, while the existing houses market, the competitiveness of the third types was the second place, and the competitiveness of the existing houses was the smallest. Thus, when a change in unit price attribute, does not affect existing houses homebuyers, but significantly affected the choice probability of pre-sale houses homebuyers.		en_US
dc.description.tableofcontents 目錄 I
圖目錄 II
表目錄 II
摘要 I
第一章 緒論 1
第一節 研究動機與目的 1
第二節 研究範圍與方法 4
第三節 研究架構與流程 7
第二章 相關理論與文獻回顧 9
第一節 購屋者之住宅選擇 9
第二節 購屋者知覺相關文獻 11
第三節 羅吉特效用模型相關文獻 14
第四節 小結 17
第三章 研究設計與樣本資料分析 18
第一節 研究設計 18
第二節 模型架構 19
第三節 模型適合度判斷(Goodness of fit) 23
第四節 彈性效果 25
第五節 資料說明 28
第四章 實證分析 32
第一節 實證變數定義 32
第二節 混合多項羅吉特模型分析 35
第三節 彈性分析 39
第五章 結論與建議 42
第一節 結論 42
第二節 建議 44
參考文獻 45
附錄一、住宅需求動向調查問卷 49		zh_TW
dc.format.extent 803086 bytes-
dc.format.mimetype application/pdf-
dc.language.iso en_US-
dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0097257019en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 住宅選擇zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 混合多項羅吉特模型zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 知覺風險zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 知覺品質zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) housing choiceen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) mixed multinomial logit modelen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) perceived risken_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) perceived qualityen_US
dc.title (題名) 預售屋、新成屋與中古屋之偏好選擇zh_TW
dc.title (題名) Housing choice among presale houses, newly constructed houses and existing houses.en_US
dc.type (資料類型) thesisen
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 白金安、張金鶚，1996，「預期景氣變動對預售屋與成屋價格差異影響之研究」，『中國財務學刊』3(2)：99-114。
朱芳妮、張金鶚、陳淑美，2008，「已購屋者及購屋搜尋者之購屋需求決策比較分析－兼論顯示性偏好及敘述性偏好之差異」，『都市與計畫』35(4)：pp339-359
林祖嘉、陳建良，2005，「租買選擇、貸款選擇、與世代組成：巢式LOGIT模型之應用」，『住宅學報』14(1)：pp1-20
李泓見、張金鶚、花敬群，2006，「台北都會區不同住宅類型價差之研究」，『台灣土地研究』，9(1)：pp63-87
李奇勳，2007，「知覺風險對消費者知覺價值之形成所扮演角色之探討」，『管理學報』24(2)：pp167-190
花敬群、張金鶚，1993，「房地產投機行為之研究」，『經社法制論叢』11：pp327-359
周美伶、張金鶚，2005，「購屋搜尋期間影響因素之研究」，『管理評論』24(1)：pp133-150
周美伶、張金鶚，2005，「購屋者外部資訊搜尋管到選擇行為與搜尋期間之探討」，『住宅學報』14(2)，pp1-25
周美伶、張金鶚，2004，「預售屋、新成屋與中古屋住宅選擇行為之探討」，『中華民國住宅學會論文集』10，pp223-234
封德台、謝雅菱，2006，「製造來源國與品牌名稱對消費者購買意願影響之研究─以國際性服飾品牌為例」，『經營管理論叢』， 2(1)：pp47-63
陳彥仲，1997，「住宅選擇之程序性決策模式」，『住宅學報』5：pp37-49
袁淑湄，2003，「應用混合Logit模型探討台灣家戶住宅選擇之研究」，國立成功大學都市計畫研究所碩士論文。
張金鶚、王健安、陳憶茹，2008，「法拍屋折價之謎：市場競爭程度是否更能解釋折價?」，『交大管理學報』28(2)：pp1-39
張金鶚、范垂爐，1992，「房地產真實交易價格之研究」，『住宅學報』，1：pp75-97
張金鶚，2003，『房地產投資與市場分析理論與實務 上篇：房地產投資分析』初版，台北市：張金鶚出版：華泰總經銷。
張麗姬，1994，「從遠期契約何現貨的角度論預售屋和成屋的價格關係―以台北市為例」，『住宅學報』，2：pp67-85
梁進龍、陳政平，2009，「咖啡連鎖業之體驗行銷、知覺價值與購買意願關係研究」，『經營管理論叢』，5(1)：pp1-11
游淑滿、曾明遜，2009，「預售屋代銷制度之演進與變遷」，『土地問題研究季刊』8(1)：pp29-40
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