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題名 選前民意調查緊張程度與投票率之間的關係－臺灣選舉實證資料為例
Closeness and turnout: evidence from election of Taiwan
作者 曾依婷
Tseng, Yi Ting
貢獻者 王智賢
曾依婷
Tseng, Yi Ting
關鍵詞 緊張程度
投票率
日期 2010
上傳時間 4-Sep-2013 15:09:55 (UTC+8)
摘要 本研究探討臺灣選情緊張程度與投票率之間的實證關係。主要係依據 Downs (1957) 的理性投票者模型及參考 Matsusaka and Palda (1993) 衡量選情緊張程度的方式，不過將選情緊張程度改成使用選前民調資料。本研究結果發現選情緊張程度與投票率之間呈現不顯著關係。加入兩岸經濟差異程度變數之後，結果兩岸經濟差異程度與投票率之間呈現顯著負向關係，選情緊張程度與投票率之間也由不顯著關係變成顯著正向關係，與 Downsian 緊張程度假設結論相反。本文另一方面則探討個別選民的投票意願，結果發現選情緊張程度與選民投票意願之間呈現顯著負向關係，與 Downsian 緊張程度假設結論相同。加入兩岸經濟差異程度變數後，結果兩岸經濟差異程度與選民投票意願之間呈現顯著負向關係。
參考文獻 一、中文部分
盛治仁 (2003)，「理性抉擇理論在政治學運用之探討」，《東吳政治學報》，第 17 期，21-51。

二、英文部分
Cox, G. W. (1988), “Closeness and Turnout: A Methodological Note,” The Journal of Politics, 50, 768-775.
Cox, G. W. and Munger, M. C. (1989), “Closeness, Expenditures, and Turnout in the 1982 U.S. House Elections,” American Political Science Review, 83, 217-31.
Crain, W. M., Leavens, D. R. and Lynn, A. (1987), “Voting and Not Voting at the Same Time,” Public Choice, 53, 221-229.
Denver, D. and Hands, G. (1974), “Marginality and Turnout in British General Elections,” British Journal of Political Science, 4, 17-35.
Denver, D. and Hands, G. (1985), “Marginality and Turnout in General Elections in the 1970`s,” British Journal of Political Science, 15, 381-88.
Downs, A. (1957), “An Economic Theory of Democracy,” New York: Harper and Row.
Foster, C. B. (1984), “The Performance of Rational Voter Models in Recent Presidential Elections,” American Political Science Review, 78, 678-90.
Geys, B. (2006), “Explaining Voter Turnout: A Review of Aggregate-Level Research,” Electoral Studies, 25, 637–663.
Kunce, M. (2001), “Pre-Election Polling and the Rational Voter: Evidence from State Panel Data (1986-1998),” Public Choice, 107, 21-34.
Ledyard, J. O. (1981), “The Paradox of Voting and Candidate Competition: A General Equilibrium Analysis,” In G. Horwich and J.P. Quirk (Eds.), Essays in contemporary fields of economics, West Lafayette, IN: Purdue University Press.
Ledyard, J. O. (1984), “The Pure Theory of Two Candidate Elections,” Public Choice, 44, 7-41.
Matsusaka, J. G. and Palda, F. (1993), “The Downsian Voter Meets the Ecological Fallacy,” Public Choice, 77, 855-878.
描述 碩士
國立政治大學
財政研究所
98255005
99
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0098255005
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 王智賢zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) 曾依婷zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) Tseng, Yi Tingen_US
dc.creator (作者) 曾依婷zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) Tseng, Yi Tingen_US
dc.date (日期) 2010en_US
dc.date.accessioned 4-Sep-2013 15:09:55 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 4-Sep-2013 15:09:55 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 4-Sep-2013 15:09:55 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0098255005en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/60062-
dc.description (描述) 碩士zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 財政研究所zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 98255005zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 99zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) 本研究探討臺灣選情緊張程度與投票率之間的實證關係。主要係依據 Downs (1957) 的理性投票者模型及參考 Matsusaka and Palda (1993) 衡量選情緊張程度的方式，不過將選情緊張程度改成使用選前民調資料。本研究結果發現選情緊張程度與投票率之間呈現不顯著關係。加入兩岸經濟差異程度變數之後，結果兩岸經濟差異程度與投票率之間呈現顯著負向關係，選情緊張程度與投票率之間也由不顯著關係變成顯著正向關係，與 Downsian 緊張程度假設結論相反。本文另一方面則探討個別選民的投票意願，結果發現選情緊張程度與選民投票意願之間呈現顯著負向關係，與 Downsian 緊張程度假設結論相同。加入兩岸經濟差異程度變數後，結果兩岸經濟差異程度與選民投票意願之間呈現顯著負向關係。zh_TW
dc.description.tableofcontents 第一章 前言 1
第二章 資料來源與變數之說明 5
第三章 總體資料實證分析 11
第一節 投票率與選情緊張程度之迴歸結果 11
第二節 投票率與兩岸經濟差異程度之迴歸結果 14
第三節 投票率與選票緊張程度之迴歸結果 17
第四章 個體資料實證分析 20
第一節 實證模型 20
第二節 實證結果 22
第五章 結論 27
參考文獻 29
附錄一 31		zh_TW
dc.format.extent 2293471 bytes-
dc.format.mimetype application/pdf-
dc.language.iso en_US-
dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0098255005en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 緊張程度zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 投票率zh_TW
dc.title (題名) 選前民意調查緊張程度與投票率之間的關係－臺灣選舉實證資料為例zh_TW
dc.title (題名) Closeness and turnout: evidence from election of Taiwanen_US
dc.type (資料類型) thesisen
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 一、中文部分
盛治仁 (2003)，「理性抉擇理論在政治學運用之探討」，《東吳政治學報》，第 17 期，21-51。

二、英文部分
Cox, G. W. (1988), “Closeness and Turnout: A Methodological Note,” The Journal of Politics, 50, 768-775.
Cox, G. W. and Munger, M. C. (1989), “Closeness, Expenditures, and Turnout in the 1982 U.S. House Elections,” American Political Science Review, 83, 217-31.
Crain, W. M., Leavens, D. R. and Lynn, A. (1987), “Voting and Not Voting at the Same Time,” Public Choice, 53, 221-229.
Denver, D. and Hands, G. (1974), “Marginality and Turnout in British General Elections,” British Journal of Political Science, 4, 17-35.
Denver, D. and Hands, G. (1985), “Marginality and Turnout in General Elections in the 1970`s,” British Journal of Political Science, 15, 381-88.
Downs, A. (1957), “An Economic Theory of Democracy,” New York: Harper and Row.
Foster, C. B. (1984), “The Performance of Rational Voter Models in Recent Presidential Elections,” American Political Science Review, 78, 678-90.
Geys, B. (2006), “Explaining Voter Turnout: A Review of Aggregate-Level Research,” Electoral Studies, 25, 637–663.
Kunce, M. (2001), “Pre-Election Polling and the Rational Voter: Evidence from State Panel Data (1986-1998),” Public Choice, 107, 21-34.
Ledyard, J. O. (1981), “The Paradox of Voting and Candidate Competition: A General Equilibrium Analysis,” In G. Horwich and J.P. Quirk (Eds.), Essays in contemporary fields of economics, West Lafayette, IN: Purdue University Press.
Ledyard, J. O. (1984), “The Pure Theory of Two Candidate Elections,” Public Choice, 44, 7-41.
Matsusaka, J. G. and Palda, F. (1993), “The Downsian Voter Meets the Ecological Fallacy,” Public Choice, 77, 855-878.		zh_TW