1. NCCU Academic Hub
  2. Publications
  3. College of Social Science
  4. Theses
  5. Item

Publications-Theses

Article View/Open

Publication Export

Google ScholarTM

NCCU Library

Citation Infomation

Related Publications in TAIR

題名 尋找可耕地有限國家之生質燃料發展策略的利基－全球可計算一般均衡模型之應用分析
Find the advantage of biofuel policy for limited arable land countries-global computable general equilibrium model
作者 鄧壬德
Deng, Ren Der
貢獻者 李慧琳
鄧壬德
Deng, Ren Der
關鍵詞 生質燃料
生質酒精
生質柴油
全球可計算一般均衡模型
日期 2009
上傳時間 5-Sep-2013 14:18:32 (UTC+8)
摘要 許多國家視生質燃料之發展為解決能源安全問題的方法。大部份的國家往往會訂定一個目標年並設定生質燃料的使用量目標。美國設定2008年時要達到90億加侖生質燃料的使用量目標，而2022年時產量要逐步達到360億加侖；歐盟訂定生質燃料占運輸部門總使用燃料比例於2010年時要達到5.75%之目標；日本設定2010年時其生質燃料產量達到50萬公秉油當量；台灣則是設定生質酒精及生質柴油之2010年使用量分別需達到100-300萬公秉及10萬公秉。各國為達成其生質燃料使用量目標，若僅考慮第一代生質燃料技術，勢必需要足夠的土地種植能源作物，方能滿足生質燃料目標量。可耕地有限的國家若執意發展生質燃料，該國是否有充足的耕地可供生產其設定之生質燃料使用量？若透過國外進口生質燃料或是作物以達成其使用量目標，其在能源安全方面仍是依賴國外供給。此外，生質燃料的發展將造成土地利用改變與農產品價格及產量變動，進而影響全球農業貿易。
本研究應用Hertel(1997)全球貿易可計算一般均衡模型(Global Trade Analysis Project，簡稱GTAP)，並加入土地利用模型，以探討可耕地受限國家發展生質燃料之利基所在，包括糧食供需、貿易與糧價、土地利用、私人家計單位消費、福利等所受到的影響。同時，我們也設計一個指標(Rij)來衡量一國達成其生質燃料發展目標之潛力，並利用該指標篩選出所謂的「可耕地受限國家」作為本研究分析之重點國家。
本研究模擬結果發現，以第一代生質燃料技術作考量之下，「可耕地受限國家」面對各地區生質燃料的發展，將會造成「可耕地受限國家」的農業市場產出、價格與貿易量的變化，例如：可作為提煉生質燃料作物的小麥、其他穀類作物、油脂作物因應各地區生質燃料發展而使得各地區普遍產出增加，而這些作物作為能源用途之需求增加也普遍導致其價格上升。各地區農作物貿易受到國際間相對價格改變之影響，例如：荷蘭的食品與菸酒部門在各地區發展生質燃料後需面對漲幅較國產為大的小麥進口價格，因此，其對國產小麥的需求增幅相對高於對進口品小麥之需求增幅。
本文模擬結果亦顯示：(1)「可耕地受限國家」也面臨農耕地受限制而有生質燃料「與糧爭地」的現象，例如：荷蘭的小麥部門在增加生產過程中，願意支付更高的地租以吸引更多土地投入小麥之種植，因此，排擠掉其他農業部門的土地使用；(2)「可耕地受限國家」之私人家計單位亦間接受到「與人爭糧」的影響，例如：荷蘭的食品與菸酒部門面對小麥的價格上升，其生產成本增加，進而影響其產品價格，最終造成荷蘭私人家計單位對食品與菸酒的消費減少；(3)各「可耕地受限國家」的福利普遍皆降低，例如：義大利福利水準惡化最為嚴重，減少了276.55百萬美元，其次為德國，其福利減少205.5百萬美元。
參考文獻 Adenäuer, M. (2008). CAPRI versus AGLINK-COSIMO Two partial equilibrium models-Two baseline approaches. Paper presented at the 2008 International Congress, August 26-29, Ghent, Belgium.
APEC. (2008). The Future of Liquid Biofuels for APEC Economies: Energy Working Group.
Banse, M., & Grethe, H. (2008). Effects of a potential new biofuel directive on EU land use and agricultural markets. Paper presented at the 107th EAAE Seminar. Sevilla, Spain.
Banse, M., Meijl, H. v., Tabeau, A., & Woltjer, G. (2008). Will EU biofuel policies affect global agricultural markets? European Review of Agricultural Economics 35(2), 117-141.
Birur, D. K., Hertel, T. W., & Tyner, W. E. (2008). Impact of Biofuel Production on World Agricultural Markets:A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis. GTAPWorking Paper No. 53. Center for Global Trade Analysis, Purdue University,West Lafayette, USA.
Boeters, S., Veenendaal, P., Leeuwen, N. v., & Rojas-Romagoza, H. (2008). The potential for biofuels alongside the EU-ETS. Paper presented at the 11th Annual GTAP Conference. Helsinki, Finland.
Britz, W., & Hertel, T. W. (2009). Impacts of EU biofuels directives on global markets and EU environmental quality: An integrated PE, global CGE analysis Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment, Article in Press, Corrected Proof
Burniaux, J.-M., & Truong, T. P. (2002). GTAP-E: An Energy-Environmental Version of the GTAP Model. GTAP Technical Paper No. 16.
Dixon, P. B., Bowles, S., & Kendrick, D. (1980). Notes and problems in microeconomic theory Amsterdam: North-Holland.
Dixon, P. B., Osborne, S., & Rimmer, M. T. (2007). The economy-wide effects in the United States of replacing crude petroleum with biomass. Energy & Environment, 18(6), 709-722.
Förster, E., Aßmann, D., & Clashausen, C. (2006). Biofuels for Transportation - Results of the Regional Studies. Paper presented at the Biofuels –Global Potential and Implications for Sustainable Agriculture and Energy in the 21st Century.
FAO. (2000). Land Cover Classification System: Classification Concepts and User Manual (with CD-Rom). Rome: Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations.
FAO. (2006). FAOSTAT. Rome: FAO.
FAO. (2008). The State of Food and Agriculture. Rome: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations.
Fargione, J., Hill, J., Tilman, D., Polasky, S., & Hawthorne, P. (2008). Land Clearing and the Biofuel Carbon Debt. Science, 319(5867), 1235-1238.
Fischer, G., Shah, M., Velthuizen, H. v., & Nachtergaele, F. (2002). Global agro-ecological assessment for agriculture in the 21st century: Laxenburg, Austria: IIASA and FAO.
Gardner, B. (2007). Fuel Ethanol Subsidies and Farm Price Support. Journal of Agricultural & Food Industrial Organization, 5(2), Article 4.
Gouel, C., & Hertel, T. W. (2006). Introducing Forest Access Cost Functions into a General Equilibrium Model. Retrieved 12/24, 2009, from https://www.gtap.agecon.purdue.edu/resources/download/2899.pdf
Gurgel, A., Reilly, J. M., & Paltsev, S. (2007). Potential Land Use Implications of a Global Biofuels Industry. Journal of Agricultural & Food Industrial Organization, 5(2), Article 9.
Hanoch, G. (1975). Production and Demand Models with Direct or Indirect Implicit Additivity. Econometrica, 43(3).
Harrison, W. J., Horridge, J. M., & Pearson, K. R. (2000). Decomposing Simulation Results with Respect to Exogenous Shocks Computational Economics, 15(3), 227-249.
Hertel, T. W. (1997). Global Trade Analysis: Modeling and Applications: Cambridge University Press.
Hertel, T. W., Tyner, W. E., & Birur, D. K. (2008). Biofuels for all? Understanding the Global Impacts of Multinational Mandates. Center for Global Trade Analysis Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University. GTAP Working Paper No. 51.
Huang, H., Tongeren, F. v., Dewbre, J., & Meijl, H. v. (2004). A New Representation of Ag-ricultural Production Technology in GTAP. Paper presented at the 7th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis, Washington DC.
IEA. (2006a). Energy Balance of Non-OECD Countries. Paris: IEA.
IEA. (2006b). Energy Balances of OECD Countries. Paris: IEA.
IEA. (2006c). World Energy Outlook 2006: International Energy Agency, Paris.
Koizumi, T., & Ohga, K. (2007). Biofuels Policies in Asian Countries: Impact of the Expanded Biofuels Programs on World Agricultural Markets. Journal of Agricultural & Food Industrial Organization, 5(2), 1190-1190.
Kretschmer, B., & Peterson, S. Integrating bioenergy into computable general equilibrium models -- A survey. [doi: DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2009.09.011]. Energy Economics, In Press, Corrected Proof.
Kretschmer, B., Peterson, S., & Ignaciuk, A. (2008). Integrating biofuels into the DART model. Kiel Working Paper 1472. Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Kiel, Germany.
Lee, H., Clark, W. C., & Devereaux, C. (2008). Biofuels and Sustainable Development.Unpublished manuscript, Center for International Development at Harvard University.
Lee, H. L., Hertel, T. W., Rose, S., & Sohngen, B. (2008). Modeling Land-use Related Greenhouse Gas Sources and Sinks and their Mitigation Potential. Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University. .
Matsumoto, N., Sano, D., & Elder, M. (2009). Biofuel initiatives in Japan: Strategies, policies, and future potential Applied Energy, 86(supplement 1), 569-576.
McDougall, R. (2003). A New Regional Household Demand System for GTAP. GTAP Technical Paper No. 20.
Meijla, H. v., Rheenen, T. v., Tabeau, A., & Eickhout, B. (2006). The impact of different policy environments on agricultural land use in Europe. Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment, 114(1), 21-38
Melillo, J. M., Gurgel, A. C., Kicklighter, D. W., Reilly, J. M., Cronin, T. W., Felzer, B. S., et al. (2009). Unintended Environmental Consequences of a Global Biofuels Program: MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Report No. 168. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Cambridge, USA. January.
Miller, R. A., & Blair, P. D. (1985). Input-output analysis: Foundations and extensions. Englewood Cliffs. NJ: Prentice Hall.
Msangi, S., Sulser, T., Rosegrant, M., & Valmonte-Santos, R. (2007). Global Scenarios for Biofuels: Impacts And Implications For Food Security And Water Use. Paper presented at the Tenth Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis special session on “CGE Modeling of Climate, Land Use, and Water: Challenges and Applications”. 7-9 June 2007.
OECD-FAO. (2007). Agricultural Outlook 2007-2016: Cooperation and Development, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations.
OECD-FAO. (2008). Agricultural Outlook 2008-2017: Cooperation and Development, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations.
OECD-FAO. (2009). Agricultural Outlook 2009-2018 Organisation for Economic: Cooperation and Development, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations.
OECD. (2006). Agricultural market impacts of future growth in the production of biofuels. Working Party on Agricultural Policies and Markets, AGR/CA/APM(2005)24/FINAL.OECD, Paris.
OECD. (2007). Documentation of the AGLINK/COSIMO model. from http://www.olis.oecd.org/olis/2006doc.nsf/LinkTo/NT00009066/$FILE/JT03223642.PDF
Özdemir, E. D., Härdtlein, M., & Eltrop, L. (2009). Land substitution effects of biofuel side products and implications on the land area requirement for EU 2020 biofuel targets Energy Policy, 37(8), 2986-2996
Reilly, J., & Paltsev, S. (2007). Biomass Energy and Competition for Land: MIT Joint Program on theScience and Policy of Global Change, Report No. 145. Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, USA.
REN21. (2008). Renewables 2007 Global Status Report. Paris: REN21 Secretariat and Washington: DC:Worldwatch Institute. Copyright © 2008 Deutsche Gesellschaft für Technische Zusammenarbeit (GTZ) GmbH.
REN21. (2009). Renewables 2009 Global Status Report: 2009 Update. Paris: REN21 Secretariat and Washington: DC:Worldwatch Institute. Copyright © 2009 Deutsche Gesellschaft für Technische Zusammenarbeit (GTZ) GmbH.
Saunders, C., Kaye-Blake, W., Marshall, L., Greenhalgh, S., & Pereira, M. d. A. (2009). Impacts of a United States’ biofuel policy on New Zealand`s agricultural sector Energy Policy, 37(9), 3448-3454
Schmitz, A., Moss, C. B., & Schmitz, T. G. (2007). Ethanol: No Free Lunch. Journal of Agricultural & Food Industrial Organization, 5(2), 1186-1186.
Sohngen, B., Tennity, C., Hnytka, M., & Meeusen, K. (2008). Global Forestry Data for the Economic Modeling of Land Use. In S. R. Tom Hertel, Richard Tol (Ed.), Economic Analysis of Land Use in Global Climate Change Policy: Routledge.
Solberg, B., Dornburg, V., Bolkesjø, T. F., Faaij, A., Junginger, M., & Trømborg, E. (2007). Bioenergy and biomass trade: Evaluation of models` suitability for analyzing international trade of biomass and bioenergy production. Research study for the IEA Bioenergy Task 40. Aas and Utrecht.
Taheripour, F., Hertel, T. W., & Tyner, W. E. (2008). Biofuels and their By-Products: Global Economic and Environmental Implications. Paper presented at the American Agricultural Economics Association Annual Meeting, Orlando, FL, July 27–29.
Taheripour, F., Hertel, T. W., & Tyner, W. E. (2009). Implications of the Biofuels Boom for the Global Livestock Industry: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis. Background paper for the 2009 State of Food and Agriculture (SOFA) from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN (FAO). from http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/bitstream/49330/2/AAEA_Taheripour_Hertel_Tyner_613185.pdf
Trostle, R. (2008). Global Agricultural Supply and Demand: Factors Contributing to the Recent Increase in Food Commodity Prices (No. WRS 0801). Washington: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
USDA. (2008). EU-27 Bio-Fuels Annual 2008 (No. GAIN Report, E48063). Washington, D.C: USDA/FAS.
USDA. (2009a). Argentina Biofuel Annual (No. GAIN Report, AR9018). Washington, D.C.: USDA/FAS.
USDA. (2009b). EU-27 Bio-Fuels Annual 2009 (No. GAIN Report, NL9014). Washington, D.C: USDA/FAS.
USDA. (2009c). Netherlands-Germany EU-27 BIOFUELS ANNUAL Annual Report 2009. Washington, D.C: USDA/FAS.
WorldBank. (2009). Quick Query select from World Development Indicators. Retrieved 10/16, 2009, from http://ddp-ext.worldbank.org/ext/DDPQQ/member.do?method=getMembers&userid=1&queryId=135
Yu, W., Hertel, T. W., Preckel, P., & Eales, J. (2003). Projecting world food demand using alternative demand systems. Economic Modelling, 21(1), 99-129.


中華人民共和國國家發展和改革委員會（2007）。可再生能源中長期發展規劃。上網日期：2009，12/19。檢自：http://www.ccchina.gov.cn/WebSite/CCChina/UpFile/2007/20079583745145.pdf
王志賢（2006）。台灣種植能源作物以提煉生質酒精之可行性分析。未出版之，碩士論文，中興大學應用經濟系所中興大學應用經濟系所。
古森本（2008）。生質能源作物之開發與潛力。農業生技產業季刊，13，46-53。
左峻德（2006）。「發展能源作物內部經濟效益分析」科技計畫。農委會農糧署九十五年度科技計畫研究報告，95 農科-1.3.1-糧-Z8。財團法人台灣經濟研究院、台灣大學農業濟學系(所)。
行政院主計處（2008）。政府統計總覽。上網日期：2009，10/16。檢自：http://www.dgbas.gov.tw/ct.asp?xItem=13213&CtNode=3504
行政院農業委員會（2006）。農業統計年報。上網日期：2009，10/16。檢自：http://www.coa.gov.tw/view.php?catid=12934
林幸君、徐世勳、左峻德（2006）。國內發展能源作物對農業及總體經濟影響之投入產出分析。在台灣經濟學會2006年年會學術論文發表會。民國95年12月17日，政治大學，台北市，政治大學，台北市。
陳孝宇（2006）。發展生質柴油和生質酒精對台灣農業部門之影響分析。未出版之，碩士論文，台灣大學農業經濟研究所。
經濟部能源局（2009）。94 年全國能源會議結論執行成效與檢討。上網日期：2009，12/18。檢自：http://www.moeaboe.gov.tw/Policy/98EnergyMeeting/meetingpolicy/important/94年全國能源會議結論執行成效與檢討.pdf
描述 碩士
國立政治大學
經濟學系
96258010
98
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0096258010
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 李慧琳zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) 鄧壬德zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) Deng, Ren Deren_US
dc.creator (作者) 鄧壬德zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) Deng, Ren Deren_US
dc.date (日期) 2009en_US
dc.date.accessioned 5-Sep-2013 14:18:32 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 5-Sep-2013 14:18:32 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 5-Sep-2013 14:18:32 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0096258010en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/60324-
dc.description (描述) 碩士zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 經濟學系zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 96258010zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 98zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) 許多國家視生質燃料之發展為解決能源安全問題的方法。大部份的國家往往會訂定一個目標年並設定生質燃料的使用量目標。美國設定2008年時要達到90億加侖生質燃料的使用量目標，而2022年時產量要逐步達到360億加侖；歐盟訂定生質燃料占運輸部門總使用燃料比例於2010年時要達到5.75%之目標；日本設定2010年時其生質燃料產量達到50萬公秉油當量；台灣則是設定生質酒精及生質柴油之2010年使用量分別需達到100-300萬公秉及10萬公秉。各國為達成其生質燃料使用量目標，若僅考慮第一代生質燃料技術，勢必需要足夠的土地種植能源作物，方能滿足生質燃料目標量。可耕地有限的國家若執意發展生質燃料，該國是否有充足的耕地可供生產其設定之生質燃料使用量？若透過國外進口生質燃料或是作物以達成其使用量目標，其在能源安全方面仍是依賴國外供給。此外，生質燃料的發展將造成土地利用改變與農產品價格及產量變動，進而影響全球農業貿易。
本研究應用Hertel(1997)全球貿易可計算一般均衡模型(Global Trade Analysis Project，簡稱GTAP)，並加入土地利用模型，以探討可耕地受限國家發展生質燃料之利基所在，包括糧食供需、貿易與糧價、土地利用、私人家計單位消費、福利等所受到的影響。同時，我們也設計一個指標(Rij)來衡量一國達成其生質燃料發展目標之潛力，並利用該指標篩選出所謂的「可耕地受限國家」作為本研究分析之重點國家。
本研究模擬結果發現，以第一代生質燃料技術作考量之下，「可耕地受限國家」面對各地區生質燃料的發展，將會造成「可耕地受限國家」的農業市場產出、價格與貿易量的變化，例如：可作為提煉生質燃料作物的小麥、其他穀類作物、油脂作物因應各地區生質燃料發展而使得各地區普遍產出增加，而這些作物作為能源用途之需求增加也普遍導致其價格上升。各地區農作物貿易受到國際間相對價格改變之影響，例如：荷蘭的食品與菸酒部門在各地區發展生質燃料後需面對漲幅較國產為大的小麥進口價格，因此，其對國產小麥的需求增幅相對高於對進口品小麥之需求增幅。
本文模擬結果亦顯示：(1)「可耕地受限國家」也面臨農耕地受限制而有生質燃料「與糧爭地」的現象，例如：荷蘭的小麥部門在增加生產過程中，願意支付更高的地租以吸引更多土地投入小麥之種植，因此，排擠掉其他農業部門的土地使用；(2)「可耕地受限國家」之私人家計單位亦間接受到「與人爭糧」的影響，例如：荷蘭的食品與菸酒部門面對小麥的價格上升，其生產成本增加，進而影響其產品價格，最終造成荷蘭私人家計單位對食品與菸酒的消費減少；(3)各「可耕地受限國家」的福利普遍皆降低，例如：義大利福利水準惡化最為嚴重，減少了276.55百萬美元，其次為德國，其福利減少205.5百萬美元。		zh_TW
dc.description.tableofcontents 第1章 緒論 1
1.1 研究動機與研究目的 1
1.2 研究方法 3
1.3 本文架構 5
第2章 文獻回顧 7
2.1 各國發展生質燃料概況 7
2.1.1 A類國家 11
2.1.2 B類國家 12
2.1.3 C類國家 14
2.1.4 D類國家 16
2.2 生質燃料政策相關之研究分析 18
2.2.1 部分均衡與一般均衡模型之生質燃料政策分析 18
2.2.2 生質燃料政策發展 21
2.2.3 國內生質燃料發展 26
第3章 理論架構 29
3.1 GTAP模型基本架構 29
3.1.1 開放體系下之GTAP基本架構 29
3.1.2 區域家計單位需求結構 32
3.1.3 生產者生產需求結構 33
3.2 GTAP土地利用模型與土地利用資料庫 34
3.2.1 土地利用資料庫 34
3.2.2 GTAP土地利用模型 37
3.3 私人家計單位行為方程式 39
3.4 福利變動拆解行為方程式 42
3.4.1 對等變量 42
3.4.2 福利效果之拆解 43
3.5 模型的修改 48
第4章 政策模擬 51
4.1 情境設計 51
4.2 GTAP資料庫之部門及區域加總與參數設定 52
4.3 GTAP第六版資料庫更新 59
4.3.1 2002年至2008年各國經濟成長趨勢 59
4.3.2 2002年至2008年各國人口成長趨勢 64
4.4 OECD-FAO(2009)預測之作物需求成長率 68
4.4.1 AGLINK-COSIMO模型 68
4.4.2 OECD-FAO(2009)之總體面假設 72
4.4.3 各國生質燃料發展目標下的作物需求預測 81
第5章 可耕地面積受限國家衡量指標 95
5.1 可耕地面積受限國家衡量指標(Rij)之介紹 95
5.2 計算Rij之步驟 97
5.2.1 第一步驟 97
5.2.2 第二步驟 102
5.2.3 第三步驟 104
5.3 本研究認定之「可耕地受限國家」 105
5.3.1 計算Rij之限制與假設 105
5.3.2 依據Rij值所認定之「可耕地受限國家」 106
第6章 模擬結果與分析 115
6.1 對農產品市場的影響 115
6.1.1 小麥市場 116
6.1.2 其他穀類作物市場 122
6.1.3 油脂作物市場 125
6.2 與糧爭地－對農業部門之土地利用的影響 128
6.3 與人爭糧－對私人家計消費的影響 142
6.4 對福利變動的影響 150
第7章 結論 163
參考文獻 169
附錄 175
附錄A 以效用的支出彈性表示之需求函數 177
附錄B 私人家計單位之效用的支出彈性變動百分比的推導 181
附錄C 艾倫部分替代彈性(Allen partial elasticity of substitution)之推導 183
附錄D 可耕地受限國家衡量指標 187		zh_TW
dc.format.extent 14433909 bytes-
dc.format.mimetype application/pdf-
dc.language.iso en_US-
dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0096258010en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 生質燃料zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 生質酒精zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 生質柴油zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 全球可計算一般均衡模型zh_TW
dc.title (題名) 尋找可耕地有限國家之生質燃料發展策略的利基－全球可計算一般均衡模型之應用分析zh_TW
dc.title (題名) Find the advantage of biofuel policy for limited arable land countries-global computable general equilibrium modelen_US
dc.type (資料類型) thesisen
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Adenäuer, M. (2008). CAPRI versus AGLINK-COSIMO Two partial equilibrium models-Two baseline approaches. Paper presented at the 2008 International Congress, August 26-29, Ghent, Belgium.
APEC. (2008). The Future of Liquid Biofuels for APEC Economies: Energy Working Group.
Banse, M., & Grethe, H. (2008). Effects of a potential new biofuel directive on EU land use and agricultural markets. Paper presented at the 107th EAAE Seminar. Sevilla, Spain.
Banse, M., Meijl, H. v., Tabeau, A., & Woltjer, G. (2008). Will EU biofuel policies affect global agricultural markets? European Review of Agricultural Economics 35(2), 117-141.
Birur, D. K., Hertel, T. W., & Tyner, W. E. (2008). Impact of Biofuel Production on World Agricultural Markets:A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis. GTAPWorking Paper No. 53. Center for Global Trade Analysis, Purdue University,West Lafayette, USA.
Boeters, S., Veenendaal, P., Leeuwen, N. v., & Rojas-Romagoza, H. (2008). The potential for biofuels alongside the EU-ETS. Paper presented at the 11th Annual GTAP Conference. Helsinki, Finland.
Britz, W., & Hertel, T. W. (2009). Impacts of EU biofuels directives on global markets and EU environmental quality: An integrated PE, global CGE analysis Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment, Article in Press, Corrected Proof
Burniaux, J.-M., & Truong, T. P. (2002). GTAP-E: An Energy-Environmental Version of the GTAP Model. GTAP Technical Paper No. 16.
Dixon, P. B., Bowles, S., & Kendrick, D. (1980). Notes and problems in microeconomic theory Amsterdam: North-Holland.
Dixon, P. B., Osborne, S., & Rimmer, M. T. (2007). The economy-wide effects in the United States of replacing crude petroleum with biomass. Energy & Environment, 18(6), 709-722.
Förster, E., Aßmann, D., & Clashausen, C. (2006). Biofuels for Transportation - Results of the Regional Studies. Paper presented at the Biofuels –Global Potential and Implications for Sustainable Agriculture and Energy in the 21st Century.
FAO. (2000). Land Cover Classification System: Classification Concepts and User Manual (with CD-Rom). Rome: Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations.
FAO. (2006). FAOSTAT. Rome: FAO.
FAO. (2008). The State of Food and Agriculture. Rome: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations.
Fargione, J., Hill, J., Tilman, D., Polasky, S., & Hawthorne, P. (2008). Land Clearing and the Biofuel Carbon Debt. Science, 319(5867), 1235-1238.
Fischer, G., Shah, M., Velthuizen, H. v., & Nachtergaele, F. (2002). Global agro-ecological assessment for agriculture in the 21st century: Laxenburg, Austria: IIASA and FAO.
Gardner, B. (2007). Fuel Ethanol Subsidies and Farm Price Support. Journal of Agricultural & Food Industrial Organization, 5(2), Article 4.
Gouel, C., & Hertel, T. W. (2006). Introducing Forest Access Cost Functions into a General Equilibrium Model. Retrieved 12/24, 2009, from https://www.gtap.agecon.purdue.edu/resources/download/2899.pdf
Gurgel, A., Reilly, J. M., & Paltsev, S. (2007). Potential Land Use Implications of a Global Biofuels Industry. Journal of Agricultural & Food Industrial Organization, 5(2), Article 9.
Hanoch, G. (1975). Production and Demand Models with Direct or Indirect Implicit Additivity. Econometrica, 43(3).
Harrison, W. J., Horridge, J. M., & Pearson, K. R. (2000). Decomposing Simulation Results with Respect to Exogenous Shocks Computational Economics, 15(3), 227-249.
Hertel, T. W. (1997). Global Trade Analysis: Modeling and Applications: Cambridge University Press.
Hertel, T. W., Tyner, W. E., & Birur, D. K. (2008). Biofuels for all? Understanding the Global Impacts of Multinational Mandates. Center for Global Trade Analysis Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University. GTAP Working Paper No. 51.
Huang, H., Tongeren, F. v., Dewbre, J., & Meijl, H. v. (2004). A New Representation of Ag-ricultural Production Technology in GTAP. Paper presented at the 7th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis, Washington DC.
IEA. (2006a). Energy Balance of Non-OECD Countries. Paris: IEA.
IEA. (2006b). Energy Balances of OECD Countries. Paris: IEA.
IEA. (2006c). World Energy Outlook 2006: International Energy Agency, Paris.
Koizumi, T., & Ohga, K. (2007). Biofuels Policies in Asian Countries: Impact of the Expanded Biofuels Programs on World Agricultural Markets. Journal of Agricultural & Food Industrial Organization, 5(2), 1190-1190.
Kretschmer, B., & Peterson, S. Integrating bioenergy into computable general equilibrium models -- A survey. [doi: DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2009.09.011]. Energy Economics, In Press, Corrected Proof.
Kretschmer, B., Peterson, S., & Ignaciuk, A. (2008). Integrating biofuels into the DART model. Kiel Working Paper 1472. Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Kiel, Germany.
Lee, H., Clark, W. C., & Devereaux, C. (2008). Biofuels and Sustainable Development.Unpublished manuscript, Center for International Development at Harvard University.
Lee, H. L., Hertel, T. W., Rose, S., & Sohngen, B. (2008). Modeling Land-use Related Greenhouse Gas Sources and Sinks and their Mitigation Potential. Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University. .
Matsumoto, N., Sano, D., & Elder, M. (2009). Biofuel initiatives in Japan: Strategies, policies, and future potential Applied Energy, 86(supplement 1), 569-576.
McDougall, R. (2003). A New Regional Household Demand System for GTAP. GTAP Technical Paper No. 20.
Meijla, H. v., Rheenen, T. v., Tabeau, A., & Eickhout, B. (2006). The impact of different policy environments on agricultural land use in Europe. Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment, 114(1), 21-38
Melillo, J. M., Gurgel, A. C., Kicklighter, D. W., Reilly, J. M., Cronin, T. W., Felzer, B. S., et al. (2009). Unintended Environmental Consequences of a Global Biofuels Program: MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Report No. 168. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Cambridge, USA. January.
Miller, R. A., & Blair, P. D. (1985). Input-output analysis: Foundations and extensions. Englewood Cliffs. NJ: Prentice Hall.
Msangi, S., Sulser, T., Rosegrant, M., & Valmonte-Santos, R. (2007). Global Scenarios for Biofuels: Impacts And Implications For Food Security And Water Use. Paper presented at the Tenth Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis special session on “CGE Modeling of Climate, Land Use, and Water: Challenges and Applications”. 7-9 June 2007.
OECD-FAO. (2007). Agricultural Outlook 2007-2016: Cooperation and Development, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations.
OECD-FAO. (2008). Agricultural Outlook 2008-2017: Cooperation and Development, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations.
OECD-FAO. (2009). Agricultural Outlook 2009-2018 Organisation for Economic: Cooperation and Development, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations.
OECD. (2006). Agricultural market impacts of future growth in the production of biofuels. Working Party on Agricultural Policies and Markets, AGR/CA/APM(2005)24/FINAL.OECD, Paris.
OECD. (2007). Documentation of the AGLINK/COSIMO model. from http://www.olis.oecd.org/olis/2006doc.nsf/LinkTo/NT00009066/$FILE/JT03223642.PDF
Özdemir, E. D., Härdtlein, M., & Eltrop, L. (2009). Land substitution effects of biofuel side products and implications on the land area requirement for EU 2020 biofuel targets Energy Policy, 37(8), 2986-2996
Reilly, J., & Paltsev, S. (2007). Biomass Energy and Competition for Land: MIT Joint Program on theScience and Policy of Global Change, Report No. 145. Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, USA.
REN21. (2008). Renewables 2007 Global Status Report. Paris: REN21 Secretariat and Washington: DC:Worldwatch Institute. Copyright © 2008 Deutsche Gesellschaft für Technische Zusammenarbeit (GTZ) GmbH.
REN21. (2009). Renewables 2009 Global Status Report: 2009 Update. Paris: REN21 Secretariat and Washington: DC:Worldwatch Institute. Copyright © 2009 Deutsche Gesellschaft für Technische Zusammenarbeit (GTZ) GmbH.
Saunders, C., Kaye-Blake, W., Marshall, L., Greenhalgh, S., & Pereira, M. d. A. (2009). Impacts of a United States’ biofuel policy on New Zealand`s agricultural sector Energy Policy, 37(9), 3448-3454
Schmitz, A., Moss, C. B., & Schmitz, T. G. (2007). Ethanol: No Free Lunch. Journal of Agricultural & Food Industrial Organization, 5(2), 1186-1186.
Sohngen, B., Tennity, C., Hnytka, M., & Meeusen, K. (2008). Global Forestry Data for the Economic Modeling of Land Use. In S. R. Tom Hertel, Richard Tol (Ed.), Economic Analysis of Land Use in Global Climate Change Policy: Routledge.
Solberg, B., Dornburg, V., Bolkesjø, T. F., Faaij, A., Junginger, M., & Trømborg, E. (2007). Bioenergy and biomass trade: Evaluation of models` suitability for analyzing international trade of biomass and bioenergy production. Research study for the IEA Bioenergy Task 40. Aas and Utrecht.
Taheripour, F., Hertel, T. W., & Tyner, W. E. (2008). Biofuels and their By-Products: Global Economic and Environmental Implications. Paper presented at the American Agricultural Economics Association Annual Meeting, Orlando, FL, July 27–29.
Taheripour, F., Hertel, T. W., & Tyner, W. E. (2009). Implications of the Biofuels Boom for the Global Livestock Industry: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis. Background paper for the 2009 State of Food and Agriculture (SOFA) from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN (FAO). from http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/bitstream/49330/2/AAEA_Taheripour_Hertel_Tyner_613185.pdf
Trostle, R. (2008). Global Agricultural Supply and Demand: Factors Contributing to the Recent Increase in Food Commodity Prices (No. WRS 0801). Washington: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
USDA. (2008). EU-27 Bio-Fuels Annual 2008 (No. GAIN Report, E48063). Washington, D.C: USDA/FAS.
USDA. (2009a). Argentina Biofuel Annual (No. GAIN Report, AR9018). Washington, D.C.: USDA/FAS.
USDA. (2009b). EU-27 Bio-Fuels Annual 2009 (No. GAIN Report, NL9014). Washington, D.C: USDA/FAS.
USDA. (2009c). Netherlands-Germany EU-27 BIOFUELS ANNUAL Annual Report 2009. Washington, D.C: USDA/FAS.
WorldBank. (2009). Quick Query select from World Development Indicators. Retrieved 10/16, 2009, from http://ddp-ext.worldbank.org/ext/DDPQQ/member.do?method=getMembers&userid=1&queryId=135
Yu, W., Hertel, T. W., Preckel, P., & Eales, J. (2003). Projecting world food demand using alternative demand systems. Economic Modelling, 21(1), 99-129.


中華人民共和國國家發展和改革委員會（2007）。可再生能源中長期發展規劃。上網日期：2009，12/19。檢自：http://www.ccchina.gov.cn/WebSite/CCChina/UpFile/2007/20079583745145.pdf
王志賢（2006）。台灣種植能源作物以提煉生質酒精之可行性分析。未出版之，碩士論文，中興大學應用經濟系所中興大學應用經濟系所。
古森本（2008）。生質能源作物之開發與潛力。農業生技產業季刊，13，46-53。
左峻德（2006）。「發展能源作物內部經濟效益分析」科技計畫。農委會農糧署九十五年度科技計畫研究報告，95 農科-1.3.1-糧-Z8。財團法人台灣經濟研究院、台灣大學農業濟學系(所)。
行政院主計處（2008）。政府統計總覽。上網日期：2009，10/16。檢自：http://www.dgbas.gov.tw/ct.asp?xItem=13213&CtNode=3504
行政院農業委員會（2006）。農業統計年報。上網日期：2009，10/16。檢自：http://www.coa.gov.tw/view.php?catid=12934
林幸君、徐世勳、左峻德（2006）。國內發展能源作物對農業及總體經濟影響之投入產出分析。在台灣經濟學會2006年年會學術論文發表會。民國95年12月17日，政治大學，台北市，政治大學，台北市。
陳孝宇（2006）。發展生質柴油和生質酒精對台灣農業部門之影響分析。未出版之，碩士論文，台灣大學農業經濟研究所。
經濟部能源局（2009）。94 年全國能源會議結論執行成效與檢討。上網日期：2009，12/18。檢自：http://www.moeaboe.gov.tw/Policy/98EnergyMeeting/meetingpolicy/important/94年全國能源會議結論執行成效與檢討.pdf		zh_TW