1. NCCU Academic Hub
  2. Publications
  3. College of Social Science
  4. Theses
  5. Item

Publications-Theses

Article View/Open

Publication Export

Google ScholarTM

NCCU Library

Citation Infomation

Related Publications in TAIR

題名 所得彈性、價格彈性與貸款成數對中國大陸房地產市場影響之探討
The effects of income elasticity, price elasticity, and the percentage of loans to mainland China`s real estate market
作者 周紹軒
Chou, Shao Hsuan
貢獻者 林祖嘉
周紹軒
Chou, Shao Hsuan
關鍵詞 所得彈性
價格彈性
貸款成數
房地產市場
income elasticity
price elasticity
percentage of loans
real estate market
日期 2010
上傳時間 5-Sep-2013 14:20:42 (UTC+8)
摘要 本研究對中國大陸房地產市場設立需求及供給函數，並使用中國大陸2001 到2009 年的省級資料進行研究分析，以探討中國大陸房地產市場的所得彈性、價格彈性與貸款成數對中國大陸房地產市場供給與需求的影響。

經由實證估計出來的所得彈性值域為1.77 ~ 3.00，價格彈性值域為0.08 ~ -0.80。相較於過往的文獻與研究，估計到的彈性較高，顯現出即便中國大陸房價持續飆漲，民眾仍肯購置房產，且房價飆漲對於房地產市場的需求量影響有限，乃因民眾對於未來的經濟情勢持樂觀的態度。

而貸款成數方面，在貸放資金大增的環境下，對於中國大陸的房地產需求及供給市場大抵而言有顯著影響，而貸款成數的增加也使得房地產需求及供給量跟隨增加。
The research constructed the demand and supply function for the market of China`s real estate, and used the provincial data in China from 2001 to 2009 to analysis. Based on the information, we discussed the income elasticity and the price elasticity, and furthermore the impacts of the percentage of loans on the China`s real estate market.

According to the empirical estimate, the range of income elasticity was from 1.77 to 3.00, and for the price elasticity, it was from 0.08 to -0.80. Compare with those previous studies, the higher level of elasticity represented that although the real estate price continued soaring in China, people were still willing to purchase. Moreover, the soaring price had a limited influence in the demand of real estate market, and the main reason was that people were all optimistic about the future.

To the percentage of loans, in this environment of the sharp increase in money lending, we found that it affect the demand and the supply market of real estate significantly, and with the relaxation of credit control, it led the demand and the supply of real estate to increase.
參考文獻 中國城市年鑑, (2002 ~ 2010), 中國統計出版社, 北京

中國統計年鑑, (2002 ~ 2010), 中國統計出版社, 北京

林祖嘉, (2011), "兩岸打房政策與經驗之比較", 國政研究報告, 財團法人國家政策研究基金會, 台北。

林祖嘉, (2006), "大陸第二次宏觀調控與房地產市場的發展", 國政分析,
財團法人國家政策研究基金會, 台北。

林素菁, 林祖嘉, (2001), "台灣地區住宅供給彈性之估計", 住宅學報, 第十卷第一期, 17-27 頁。

林秋瑾, 黃佩玲, (1995), "住宅價格與總體經濟變數關係之研究--以向量自我迴歸模式(VAR)進行實證", 國立政治大學學報, 第71 期, 143-160頁。

林祖嘉, 林素菁, (1994), "台灣地區住宅需求價格彈性與所得彈性之探討",住宅學報, 第二期, 25-48 頁。

許易民, (2010), "近期中國大陸房地產情勢與影響", Economic Research, 第11 卷, 449-470 頁。

張智元, 蕭文雄, 黃世孟, 郭斯傑, (2007), "建築物專業健診機制之供給與需求探討", 中華民國建築學會建築學報, 第59 期, 93-112 頁。

張雅慧, (2002), "租賃住宅之需求彈性與所得彈性", 國立成功大學都市
計劃研究所碩士論文。

趙慧, (2010), "淺析我國高房價現狀的原因及對策", 黑龍江理論網, 黑龍
江。

Baldacci, E., G. Callegari, D. Coady, D. Ding, M. Kumar, P. Tommasino, and J. Woo (2010), "Public Expenditures on Social Programs and Household Consumption in China," IMF Working Papers, 28, 1-28.

Bacchetta, P., and S. Gerlach (1997), "Consumption and Credit Constraints: International Evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, 40(2), 207- 238.

Byatt, I. D. R., A. E. Homansa, and D. E. W. Laidler (1973), "Income and the Demand for Housing: Some Evidence for Great Britain," Economic Notes, Directorate General of Economics and Resources, Department of the Environment.

Chow, G. (1985), The Chinese Economy, Harper and Row, New York.

Carliner, G. (1973), "Income Elasticity of Housing Demand," The Review of Economics and Statistics, 55(4), 528-532.

De Leeuw, F. (1971), "The Demand for Housing: A Review of Cross-Section Evidence," The Review of Economics and Statistics, 53(1), 1-10.

Ermisch, J. F., J. Findlay, and K. Gibb (1996), "The Price Elasticity of Housing Demand in Britain: Issues of Sample Selection," Journal of Housing Economics, 5(1), 64-86.

Goodman, A. C., and M. Kawai (1982), "Permanent Income, Hedonic Prices, and Demand for Housing: New Evidence," Journal of Urban Economics, 12(2), 214-237.

Hurst, E., and F. Stafford (2002), "Home is Where the Equity is: Mortgage Refinancing and Household Consumption," Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, 36(6), 985-1014.

Hansen, J. L., J. P. Formby, and W. James (1998), "Estimating the Income Elasticity of Demand for Housing: A Comparison of Traditional and Lorenz-Concentration Curve Methodologies," Journal of Housing Economics, 7(4), 328-342.

Hanushek, E. A., and J. M. Quigley (1982), "The Determinants of Housing Demand," Research in Urban Economics, 2, JAI Press, London.

Houthakker, H. S. (1957), "An International Comparison of Household Expenditure Patterns, Commemorating the Century of Engel`s Law," Econometrica, 25, 532-551.

Iacoviello, M. (2004), "Consumption, House Prices and Collateral Constraints: A Structural Econometric Analysis," Journal of Housing Economics, 13(4), 304-320.

Lustig, H., and S. Van Nieuwerburgh (2003), "Housing Collateral, Consumption Insurance and Risk Premia: An Empirical Perpective," NBER Working Paper No. 9959.

Lim, G. C., and M. H. Lee (1993), "Housing Consumption in Urban China,"Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 6, 89-102.

Markusen, J. R. (1979), "Elements of Real Asset Pricing: A Theoretical Analysis with Special Reference to Urban Land Prices," Land Economics, 55(2), 153-166.

Maisel, S. J., J. B. Burnham, and J. S. Austin (1971), "The Demand for Housing: A Comment," The Review of Economics and Statistics, 53(4), 410-413.

Muth, R. (1960), "The Demand for Non-Farm Housing," The Demand for Durable Goods, edited by A. C. Harberger, University of Chicago Press.

Polinsky, A. M., and D. T. Ellwood (1979), "An Empirical Reconciliation of Micro and Grouped Estimates of the Demand for Housing," The Review of Economics and Statistics, 61(2), 199-205.

Polinsky, A. M. (1977), "The Demand for Housing: A Study in Specification and Grouping," Econometrica, 45(2), 447-461.

Rosen, S. (1979), "Wage Based Indices of Urban Quality of Life," Urban Economics, edited by P. Mieszkowski and M. Straszheim, Johns Hopkins University Press.

Reid, M.G. (1962), Housing and Income, University of Chicago Press, Chicago.

Stiglitz, J. E., and C. E. Walsh (2006), Economics, 4th edition, W. W. Norton.

Straszheim, M. R. (1973), "Estimation of the Demand for Urban Housing Services from Household Interview Data," The Review of Economics and Statistics, 55(1), 1-8.

Vipond, J., and J. B. Walker (1972), "The Determinants of Housing Expenditure and Owner-Occupation," Bulletin of the Oxford University Institute of Economics & Statistics, 34(2), 169-187.

Winger, A. R. (1968), "Housing and Income," Economic Inquiry, 6(3), 226-252.

Zabel, J. E. (2004), "The demand for housing services," Journal of Housing Economics, 13(1), 16-35.
描述 碩士
國立政治大學
經濟學系
98258022
99
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0098258022
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 林祖嘉zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) 周紹軒zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) Chou, Shao Hsuanen_US
dc.creator (作者) 周紹軒zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) Chou, Shao Hsuanen_US
dc.date (日期) 2010en_US
dc.date.accessioned 5-Sep-2013 14:20:42 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 5-Sep-2013 14:20:42 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 5-Sep-2013 14:20:42 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0098258022en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/60335-
dc.description (描述) 碩士zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 經濟學系zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 98258022zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 99zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) 本研究對中國大陸房地產市場設立需求及供給函數，並使用中國大陸2001 到2009 年的省級資料進行研究分析，以探討中國大陸房地產市場的所得彈性、價格彈性與貸款成數對中國大陸房地產市場供給與需求的影響。

經由實證估計出來的所得彈性值域為1.77 ~ 3.00，價格彈性值域為0.08 ~ -0.80。相較於過往的文獻與研究，估計到的彈性較高，顯現出即便中國大陸房價持續飆漲，民眾仍肯購置房產，且房價飆漲對於房地產市場的需求量影響有限，乃因民眾對於未來的經濟情勢持樂觀的態度。

而貸款成數方面，在貸放資金大增的環境下，對於中國大陸的房地產需求及供給市場大抵而言有顯著影響，而貸款成數的增加也使得房地產需求及供給量跟隨增加。		zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) The research constructed the demand and supply function for the market of China`s real estate, and used the provincial data in China from 2001 to 2009 to analysis. Based on the information, we discussed the income elasticity and the price elasticity, and furthermore the impacts of the percentage of loans on the China`s real estate market.

According to the empirical estimate, the range of income elasticity was from 1.77 to 3.00, and for the price elasticity, it was from 0.08 to -0.80. Compare with those previous studies, the higher level of elasticity represented that although the real estate price continued soaring in China, people were still willing to purchase. Moreover, the soaring price had a limited influence in the demand of real estate market, and the main reason was that people were all optimistic about the future.

To the percentage of loans, in this environment of the sharp increase in money lending, we found that it affect the demand and the supply market of real estate significantly, and with the relaxation of credit control, it led the demand and the supply of real estate to increase.		en_US
dc.description.tableofcontents 第一章 緒論…………………………………………………………………...1
第一節 研究背景………………………………………………………...1
第二節 研究動機………………………………………………………...5

第二章 房地產市場所得彈性、價格彈性
與貸款成數之相關文獻回顧………………………………………...6
第一節 住宅需求之價格彈性與所得彈性相關文獻探討……….……..7
第二節 貸款成數相關文獻探討……………………………………….12
第三節 文獻回顧結語………………………………………………….16

第三章 中國大陸房地產市場研究方法與資料變數…………...…………..18
第一節 房地產市場需求函數及供給函數實證模型之設定……….…19
第二節 中國大陸房地產市場需求函數及供給函數
之資料變數來源及處理……………………………………….23
第三節 中國大陸房地產市場需求函數及供給函數
之相關變數敘述統計量分析………………………………….27

第四章 中國大陸房地產市場所得彈性、價格彈性
與貸款成數之實證分析…………………………………………….34
第一節 中國大陸房地產市場需求及供給函數實證結果之探討….…36
第二節 中國大陸房地產市場所得彈性與價格彈性
實證結果之探討……………………………………………….44
第三節 中國大陸房地產市場貸款成數影響之探討……...…………..47

第五章 結論………………………………………………………………….50

參考文獻……………………………………………………………………...52		zh_TW
dc.format.extent 802451 bytes-
dc.format.mimetype application/pdf-
dc.language.iso en_US-
dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0098258022en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 所得彈性zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 價格彈性zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 貸款成數zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 房地產市場zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) income elasticityen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) price elasticityen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) percentage of loansen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) real estate marketen_US
dc.title (題名) 所得彈性、價格彈性與貸款成數對中國大陸房地產市場影響之探討zh_TW
dc.title (題名) The effects of income elasticity, price elasticity, and the percentage of loans to mainland China`s real estate marketen_US
dc.type (資料類型) thesisen
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 中國城市年鑑, (2002 ~ 2010), 中國統計出版社, 北京

中國統計年鑑, (2002 ~ 2010), 中國統計出版社, 北京

林祖嘉, (2011), "兩岸打房政策與經驗之比較", 國政研究報告, 財團法人國家政策研究基金會, 台北。

林祖嘉, (2006), "大陸第二次宏觀調控與房地產市場的發展", 國政分析,
財團法人國家政策研究基金會, 台北。

林素菁, 林祖嘉, (2001), "台灣地區住宅供給彈性之估計", 住宅學報, 第十卷第一期, 17-27 頁。

林秋瑾, 黃佩玲, (1995), "住宅價格與總體經濟變數關係之研究--以向量自我迴歸模式(VAR)進行實證", 國立政治大學學報, 第71 期, 143-160頁。

林祖嘉, 林素菁, (1994), "台灣地區住宅需求價格彈性與所得彈性之探討",住宅學報, 第二期, 25-48 頁。

許易民, (2010), "近期中國大陸房地產情勢與影響", Economic Research, 第11 卷, 449-470 頁。

張智元, 蕭文雄, 黃世孟, 郭斯傑, (2007), "建築物專業健診機制之供給與需求探討", 中華民國建築學會建築學報, 第59 期, 93-112 頁。

張雅慧, (2002), "租賃住宅之需求彈性與所得彈性", 國立成功大學都市
計劃研究所碩士論文。

趙慧, (2010), "淺析我國高房價現狀的原因及對策", 黑龍江理論網, 黑龍
江。

Baldacci, E., G. Callegari, D. Coady, D. Ding, M. Kumar, P. Tommasino, and J. Woo (2010), "Public Expenditures on Social Programs and Household Consumption in China," IMF Working Papers, 28, 1-28.

Bacchetta, P., and S. Gerlach (1997), "Consumption and Credit Constraints: International Evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, 40(2), 207- 238.

Byatt, I. D. R., A. E. Homansa, and D. E. W. Laidler (1973), "Income and the Demand for Housing: Some Evidence for Great Britain," Economic Notes, Directorate General of Economics and Resources, Department of the Environment.

Chow, G. (1985), The Chinese Economy, Harper and Row, New York.

Carliner, G. (1973), "Income Elasticity of Housing Demand," The Review of Economics and Statistics, 55(4), 528-532.

De Leeuw, F. (1971), "The Demand for Housing: A Review of Cross-Section Evidence," The Review of Economics and Statistics, 53(1), 1-10.

Ermisch, J. F., J. Findlay, and K. Gibb (1996), "The Price Elasticity of Housing Demand in Britain: Issues of Sample Selection," Journal of Housing Economics, 5(1), 64-86.

Goodman, A. C., and M. Kawai (1982), "Permanent Income, Hedonic Prices, and Demand for Housing: New Evidence," Journal of Urban Economics, 12(2), 214-237.

Hurst, E., and F. Stafford (2002), "Home is Where the Equity is: Mortgage Refinancing and Household Consumption," Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, 36(6), 985-1014.

Hansen, J. L., J. P. Formby, and W. James (1998), "Estimating the Income Elasticity of Demand for Housing: A Comparison of Traditional and Lorenz-Concentration Curve Methodologies," Journal of Housing Economics, 7(4), 328-342.

Hanushek, E. A., and J. M. Quigley (1982), "The Determinants of Housing Demand," Research in Urban Economics, 2, JAI Press, London.

Houthakker, H. S. (1957), "An International Comparison of Household Expenditure Patterns, Commemorating the Century of Engel`s Law," Econometrica, 25, 532-551.

Iacoviello, M. (2004), "Consumption, House Prices and Collateral Constraints: A Structural Econometric Analysis," Journal of Housing Economics, 13(4), 304-320.

Lustig, H., and S. Van Nieuwerburgh (2003), "Housing Collateral, Consumption Insurance and Risk Premia: An Empirical Perpective," NBER Working Paper No. 9959.

Lim, G. C., and M. H. Lee (1993), "Housing Consumption in Urban China,"Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 6, 89-102.

Markusen, J. R. (1979), "Elements of Real Asset Pricing: A Theoretical Analysis with Special Reference to Urban Land Prices," Land Economics, 55(2), 153-166.

Maisel, S. J., J. B. Burnham, and J. S. Austin (1971), "The Demand for Housing: A Comment," The Review of Economics and Statistics, 53(4), 410-413.

Muth, R. (1960), "The Demand for Non-Farm Housing," The Demand for Durable Goods, edited by A. C. Harberger, University of Chicago Press.

Polinsky, A. M., and D. T. Ellwood (1979), "An Empirical Reconciliation of Micro and Grouped Estimates of the Demand for Housing," The Review of Economics and Statistics, 61(2), 199-205.

Polinsky, A. M. (1977), "The Demand for Housing: A Study in Specification and Grouping," Econometrica, 45(2), 447-461.

Rosen, S. (1979), "Wage Based Indices of Urban Quality of Life," Urban Economics, edited by P. Mieszkowski and M. Straszheim, Johns Hopkins University Press.

Reid, M.G. (1962), Housing and Income, University of Chicago Press, Chicago.

Stiglitz, J. E., and C. E. Walsh (2006), Economics, 4th edition, W. W. Norton.

Straszheim, M. R. (1973), "Estimation of the Demand for Urban Housing Services from Household Interview Data," The Review of Economics and Statistics, 55(1), 1-8.

Vipond, J., and J. B. Walker (1972), "The Determinants of Housing Expenditure and Owner-Occupation," Bulletin of the Oxford University Institute of Economics & Statistics, 34(2), 169-187.

Winger, A. R. (1968), "Housing and Income," Economic Inquiry, 6(3), 226-252.

Zabel, J. E. (2004), "The demand for housing services," Journal of Housing Economics, 13(1), 16-35.		zh_TW