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題名 民主會影響經濟成長嗎?追蹤資料分量迴歸的應用
Does democracy affect economic growth? a panel quantile analysis
作者 蕭宇翔
貢獻者 林馨怡
蕭宇翔
關鍵詞 民主
經濟成長
經濟波動
分量迴歸
追蹤資料
日期 2010
上傳時間 5-Sep-2013 14:20:53 (UTC+8)
摘要 本論文以分量迴歸估計方法探討民主與經濟發展的關係,\n在政治民主對經濟成長的影響上,使用全世界78國1960-2008年的年資料並以追蹤資料分量迴歸方法進行分析,\n實證結果發現民主對經濟成長的影響具非線性的關係,\n且在經濟成長率高時呈正U型的影響,而在低經濟成長時兩者呈倒U型關係。此結果顯示在經濟繁榮時民主透過競租行為影響經濟較為嚴重,\n反之經濟蕭條時,再分配政策產生的負面效果較為明顯。另一方面,本文以動態追蹤資料分量迴歸分法分析民主政治對經濟波動的影響,\n分析全世界82國在1960-2008年的追蹤資料,發現民主在經濟波動越劇烈時,穩定經濟的效果愈強且顯著,\n而在經濟穩定時,則為不顯著的正向影響。實證結果支持Rodrik (1999a,2000b)的理論,在經濟波動越劇烈的國家,\n民主政治越能透過政治和解來穩定經濟波動。
參考文獻 Acemoglu, D. and Robinson, J. A.(2000).\nWhy Did the West Extend the Franchise? Democracy, Inequality and Growth in Historical Perspective.\nQuarterly Journal of Economics, 115 ,1167--1199.\n\nAcemoglu, D. and Zilibotti, F. (1997).\nWas Prometheus Unbound by Chance? Risk, Diversification, and Growth.\nJournal of Political Economy, 105, 709--751.\n\nAcemoglu, D., Johnson, S. and Robinson, J. A.(2001).\nThe Colonial Origin of Comparative Development: An Empirical Investigation.\nAmerican Economic Review, 91 ,1369--1401.\n\nAcemoglu, D., Johnson, S., Robinson, J. and Thaicharoen, Y. (2003).\nInstitutional Causes, Macroeconomic Symptoms: Volatility, Crises and Growth.\nJournal of Monetary Economics, 50 ,49--123.\n\nAcemoglu, D., Johnson, S., Robinson, J. A., and Yared, P. (2008).\nIncome and Democracy.\nAmerican Economic Review, 98 ,808--842.\n\nAlesina, A. and Rodrik. D. (1994).\nDistributive Politics and Economic Growth.\nQuarterly Journal of Economics, 109 ,465--490.\n\nAlesina, A., Devleeschauwer, A., Easterly, W., Kurlat, S. and Wacziarg, R. (2003).\nFractionalization.\nJournal of Economic Growth, 8 ,155--194.\n\nAlmeida, H. and Ferreira, D. (2002).\nDemocracy and the Variablity of Economic Performance.\nEconomics and Politics, 14, 225--257.\n\nAmemiya, T. (1982).\nTwo Stage Least Absolute Deviations Estimators.\nEconometrica, 50, 689--711.\n\nArellano, M. and Bond, S. (1991).\nSome Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations.\nReview of Economic Studies, 58, 277--297.\n\nBardhan, P. (1993).\nSymposium on Democracy and Development.\nJournal of Economic Perspectives, 7, 45--49.\n\nBarlevy, G. and Tsiddon, D. (2006).\nEarnings Inequality and the Business Cycle.\nEuropean Economic Review, 50, 55--89.\n\nBarro, R. J. (1996).\nDemocracy and Growth.\nJournal of Economic Growth, 1, 1--27.\n\nBarro, R. J. (1997).\nDeterminants of Economic Growth: A Cross-Country Empirical Study.\nCambridge,MA: MIT Press.\n\nBarro, R. J. (1999).\nDeterminants of Democracy.\nJournal of Political Economy, 107, 158--184.\n\nBarro, R. J. (2000).\nInequality and Growth in a Panel of Countries.\nJournal of Economic Growth, 5, 5--32.\n\nBarro, R. J. and Lee, J.W. (2010).\nA New Data Set of Educational Attainment in the World, 1950-2010.\nNational Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper No.15902. (http://www.barrolee.com/)\n\nBaum, M. A. and Lake, D. A. (2003).\nThe Political Economy of Growth: Democracy and Human Capital.\nAmerican Journal of Political Science, 47, 333--347.\n\nBecker, G. S. and Barro, R. J. (1988).\nA Reformulation of the Economic Theory of Fertility?\nQuarterly Journal of Economics, 103, 1--25.\n\nBluedorn, J. C. (2001).\nCan Democracy Help? Growth and Ethnic Division.\nEconomics Letters, 70, 121--126.\n\nBlundell, R., and Bond, S. (1998).\nInitial Conditions and Moment Restrictions in Dynamic Panel Data Models.\nJournal of Econometrics, 87, 115--143.\n\nBollen, K. A. (1990).\nPolitical Democracy: Conceptual and Measurement Traps.\nStudies in Comparative International Development, 25, 7--24.\n\nBremmer, I. (2006).\nThe J Curve: A New Way to Understand Why Nations Rise and Fall.\nNew York: Simon and Schuster.\n\nChernozhukov, V. and Hansen, C. (2005).\nAn IV Model of Quantile Treatment Effects.\nEconometrica, 73, 245--261.\n\nChernozhukov, V. and Hansen, C. (2006).\nInstrumental Quantile Regression Inference for Structural and Treatment Effect Models.\nJournal of Econometrics, 132, 491--525.\n\nChernozhukov, V. and Hansen, C. (2008).\nInstrumental Variable Quantile Regression: A Robust Inference Approach.\nJournal of Econometrics, 142, 379--398.\n\nChua, A. (2002).\nWorld on Fire: How Exporting Free Market Democracy Breeds Ethnic Hatred and Global Instability.\nNew York: Doubleday.\n\nCuberes, D. and Jerzmanowski, M. (2009).\nDemocracy, Diversification and Growth Reversals.\nEconomic Journal, 119, 1270--1302.\n\nDoucouliagos, H. and Ulubasoglu, M. A. (2008).\nDemocracy and Economic Growth: A Meta-Analysis.\nAmerican Journal of Political Science, 52, 61--83.\n\nEasterly, W. (2001).\nCan Institutions Resolve Ethnic Conflict?\nEconomic Development and Cultural Change, 49, 687--706.\n\nEasterly, W. and Kraay, A. (2000).\nSmall States, Small Problems? Income, Growth, and Volatility in Small States.\nWorld Development, 28, 2013--2027.\n\nEasterly, W. and Levine, R. (1997).\nAfrica`s Growth Tragedy: Policies and Ethnic Divisions.\nQuarterly Journal of Economics, 112, 1203--1250.\n\nEasterly, W., Islam, R., and Stiglitz, J. (2000).\nExplaining Growth Volatility.\nWorld Bank Working Paper, 04/13.\n\nGalvao, A. and Mones-Rojas, G. (2010).\nPenalized Quantile Regression for Dynamic Panel Data.\nJournal of Statistical Planning and Inference, 140, 3476--3497.\n\nGastil, R. D. (1991).\nThe Comparative Survey of Freedom: Experiences and Suggestions?\nIn Alex Inkeles (ed.), On Measuring Democracy. New Brunswick, NJ: Transaction Publishers.\n\nGiavazzi, F. and Tabellini, G. (2005).\nEconomic and Political Liberalization.\nJournal of Monetary Economics, 52, 1297--1330.\n\nHelliwell, J. F. (1994).\nEmpirical Linkages Between Democracy and Economic Growth.\nBritish Journal of Political Science, 24, 225--248.\n\nHoltz-Dakin, D., Newey, W. and Rosen, H. (1988).\nEstimating Vecter Antorefression With Panel Data.\nEconometrica, 56, 1371--1395.\n\nHuntington, S. P. (1993).\nThe Third Wave: Democratization in the Late Twentieth Century.\nOklahoma: University of Oklahoma Press.\n\nIm, K. S., Pesaram, M. H. and Shin, Y. (2003).\nTesting for Unit Roots in Heterogeneous Panels.\nJournal of Econometrics, 115, 53--74.\n\nKaplan, R. D. (2000).\nThe Coming Anarchy: Shattering the Dreams of the Post Cold War.\nNew York: Random House.\n\nKlomp, J. and Haan, J. D. (2009).\nPolitical Institutions and Economic Volatility.\nEuropean Journal of Political Economy, 25, 311--326.\n\nKoenker, R. (2004).\nQuantile Regression for Longitudinal Data.\nJournal of Multivariate Analysis, 91, 74--89.\n\nKoenker, R. and Bassett, G.(1978).\nRegression Quantiles.\nEconometrica, 46, 33--50.\n\nKoenker, R. and Bassett, G.(1982).\nRobust Tests for Heteroscedasticity Based on Regression Quantiles.\nEconometrica, 50, 43--61.\n\nLane, P. R. and Tornell, A. (1996).\nPower, Growth, and the Voracity Effect.\nJournal of Economic Growth, 1, 213--241.\n\nLevin, A., Lin, C. and Chu, C. (2002).\nRecent Advances in Quantile Regression Models: a Practical Guideline for Empirical Research.\nJournal of Econometrics, 108, 1--24.\n\nLevine, R. and Renelt, D. (1992).\nA Sensitivity Analysis of Cross-Country Growth Regressions.\nAmerican Economic Review, 82, 942--963.\n\nLin, H. (2010).\nEndogeneity in Panel Data Quantile Regression Models: a Fitted Value Approach.\nmimeo, National Chengchi University.\n\nLipset, S. M. (1959).\nSome Social Requisites of Democracy: Economic Development and Political Legitimacy.\nAmerican Political Science Review, 53, 69--105.\n\nMobarak, A. M. (2005).\nDemocracy, Volatility, and Economic Development.\nReview of Economics and Statistics, 87, 348--361.\n\nMohtadi, H. and Roe, T. L. (2003).\nDemocracy, Rent Seeking, Public Spending and Growth.\nJournal of Public Economics, 87, 445--446.\n\nOlson, M. (1993).\nDictatorship, Democracy, and Development.\nAmerican Political Science Review, 87, 567--575.\n\nPapaioannou, E. and Siourunis, G. (2008a).\nDemocratisation and Growth.\nEconomic Journal, 118, 1520--1551.\n\nPapaioannou, E. and Siourunis, G. (2008b).\nEconomic and Social Factors Driving the Third Wave of Democratization.\nJournal of Comparative Economics, 36, 365--387.\n\nPersson, T. and Tabellini, G. (1994).\nIs Inequality Harmful for Growth? Theory and Evidence?\nAmerican Economic Review, 84, 600--621.\n\nPersson, T. and Tabellini, G. (2006).\nDemocracy and Development: The Devil in the Details.\nAmerican Economic Review, Papers and Proceedings, 96, 319--324.\n\nPersson, T. and Tabellini, G. (2009).\nDemocratic Capital: The Nexus of Political and Economic Change.\nAmerican Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 2, 88--126.\n\nPersson, T. and Tabellini, G. (2007).\nThe Growth Effect of Democracy: Is It Heterogenous and How Can It Be Estimated?\nNational Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper No. 13150.\n\nPolity IV (2009).\nPolitical Regime Characteristics and Transitions, 1800-2009.\nCollege Park: University of Maryland. (http://www.systemicpeace.org/polity/polity4.htm)\n\nPowell, J. (1983).\nThe Asymptotic Normality of Two-Stage Least Absolute Deviations Estimators.\nEconometrica, 51, 1569--1576.\n\nPrzeworski, A. and Limongi, F. (1993).\nPolitical Regimes and Economic Growth.\nJournal of Economic Perspectives, 7, 51--69.\n\nQuinn, D. P. and Woolley, J. T. (2001).\nDemocracy and National Economic Performance: The Preference for Stability.\nAmerican Journal of Political Science, 45, 634--657.\n\nRodrik, D. (1999a).\nWhere Did All the Growth Go? External Shocks, Social Conflict, and Growth Collapses.\nJournal of Economic Growth, 4, 385--412.\n\nRodrik, D. (1999b)\nDemocracy Pay Higher Wage.\nQuarterly Journal of Economics, 90, 707--738.\n\nRodrik, D. (2000a).\nInstitutions for High-Quality Growth: What They Are and How to Acquire Them.\nStudies in Comparative International Development, 35, 1--33.\n\nRodrik, D. (2000b).\nParticipatory Politics, Social Cooperation, and Economic Stability.\nAmerican Economic Review, Papers and Proceedings, 90, 140--144.\n\nRodrik, D. and Wacziarg, R. (2005).\nDo Democratic Transitions Produce Bad Economic Outcomes?\nAmerican Economic Review, Papers and Proceedings, 95, 50--55.\n\nRoss, M. L. (2001).\nDoes Oil Hinder Democracy?\nWorld Politics 53, 225--361.\n\nSah, R. K. (1991).\nFallibility in Human Organizations and Political Systems.\nJournal of Economic Perspectives, 5, 67--88.\n\nScully, G. W. (1988).\nThe Institutional Framework and Economic Development.\nJournal of Political Economy, 96, 652--662.\n\nTavares, T. and Wacziarg, R. (2001).\nHow Democracy Affects Growth.\nEuropean Economic Review, 45, 1341--1378.\n\nTornell, A. and Lane, P. R. (1999).\nThe Voracity Effect.\nAmerican Economic Review, 89, 22--46.\n\nYang, B. (2008).\nDoes Democracy Lower Growth Volatility? A Dynamic Panel Analysis.\nJournal of Macroeconomics, 30, 562--574.\n\nZakaria, F. (2003).\nThe Future of Freedom: Illiberal Democracy at Home and Abroad.\nNew York: Norton.
描述 碩士
國立政治大學
經濟學系
98258025
99
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0098258025
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 林馨怡zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) 蕭宇翔zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) 蕭宇翔zh_TW
dc.date (日期) 2010en_US
dc.date.accessioned 5-Sep-2013 14:20:53 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 5-Sep-2013 14:20:53 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 5-Sep-2013 14:20:53 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0098258025en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI) https://ah.lib.nccu.edu.tw/item?item_id=68019-
dc.description (描述) 碩士zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 經濟學系zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 98258025zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 99zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) 本論文以分量迴歸估計方法探討民主與經濟發展的關係,\n在政治民主對經濟成長的影響上,使用全世界78國1960-2008年的年資料並以追蹤資料分量迴歸方法進行分析,\n實證結果發現民主對經濟成長的影響具非線性的關係,\n且在經濟成長率高時呈正U型的影響,而在低經濟成長時兩者呈倒U型關係。此結果顯示在經濟繁榮時民主透過競租行為影響經濟較為嚴重,\n反之經濟蕭條時,再分配政策產生的負面效果較為明顯。另一方面,本文以動態追蹤資料分量迴歸分法分析民主政治對經濟波動的影響,\n分析全世界82國在1960-2008年的追蹤資料,發現民主在經濟波動越劇烈時,穩定經濟的效果愈強且顯著,\n而在經濟穩定時,則為不顯著的正向影響。實證結果支持Rodrik (1999a,2000b)的理論,在經濟波動越劇烈的國家,\n民主政治越能透過政治和解來穩定經濟波動。zh_TW
dc.description.tableofcontents 1 緒論 1\n2 文獻回顧 4\n2.1 民主政治影響經濟成長..............................4\n2.2 民主政治影響經濟波動.............................10\n3 計量方法 17\n3.1 分量迴歸.........................................17\n3.2 工具變數分量迴歸.................................18\n3.3 追蹤資料分量迴歸的內生應問題.....................20\n3.4 動態追蹤分量迴歸.................................24\n4 民主政治影響經濟成長實證結果 26\n4.1 資料.............................................26\n4.1.1 樣本資料與敘述統計量...........................26\n4.1.2 民主的衡量.....................................32\n4.2 基本結果.........................................32\n4.3 加入其他變數.....................................37\n4.4 考慮內生性問題...................................42\n4.5 OECD國家與非OECD國家.............................47\n4.6 撒哈拉沙漠以南國家...............................50\n4.7 不同時期.........................................52\n5 民主政治影響經濟波動實證結果 57\n5.1 資料.............................................57\n5.2 基本結果.........................................60\n5.3 不同工具變數.....................................64\n5.4 加入其他變數.....................................66\n5.5 OECD國家與非OECD國家.............................71\n5.6 撒哈拉沙漠以南國家...............................74\n5.7 不同時期.........................................76\n6 結論 81\n參考文獻.............................................83\nA 民主政治影響經濟成長 國家樣本資料..................87\nB 民主政治影響經濟成長 依國家性質區分樣本資料........90\nC 民主政治影響經濟成長 資料來源及說明................91\nD 民主政治影響經濟波動 國家樣本資料..................93\nE 民主政治影響經濟波動 依國家性質區分樣本資料........97\nF 民主政治影響經濟波動 資料來源及說明................98zh_TW
dc.format.extent 1668673 bytes-
dc.format.mimetype application/pdf-
dc.language.iso en_US-
dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0098258025en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 民主zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 經濟成長zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 經濟波動zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 分量迴歸zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 追蹤資料zh_TW
dc.title (題名) 民主會影響經濟成長嗎?追蹤資料分量迴歸的應用zh_TW
dc.title (題名) Does democracy affect economic growth? a panel quantile analysisen_US
dc.type (資料類型) thesisen
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Acemoglu, D. and Robinson, J. A.(2000).\nWhy Did the West Extend the Franchise? Democracy, Inequality and Growth in Historical Perspective.\nQuarterly Journal of Economics, 115 ,1167--1199.\n\nAcemoglu, D. and Zilibotti, F. (1997).\nWas Prometheus Unbound by Chance? Risk, Diversification, and Growth.\nJournal of Political Economy, 105, 709--751.\n\nAcemoglu, D., Johnson, S. and Robinson, J. A.(2001).\nThe Colonial Origin of Comparative Development: An Empirical Investigation.\nAmerican Economic Review, 91 ,1369--1401.\n\nAcemoglu, D., Johnson, S., Robinson, J. and Thaicharoen, Y. (2003).\nInstitutional Causes, Macroeconomic Symptoms: Volatility, Crises and Growth.\nJournal of Monetary Economics, 50 ,49--123.\n\nAcemoglu, D., Johnson, S., Robinson, J. A., and Yared, P. (2008).\nIncome and Democracy.\nAmerican Economic Review, 98 ,808--842.\n\nAlesina, A. and Rodrik. D. (1994).\nDistributive Politics and Economic Growth.\nQuarterly Journal of Economics, 109 ,465--490.\n\nAlesina, A., Devleeschauwer, A., Easterly, W., Kurlat, S. and Wacziarg, R. (2003).\nFractionalization.\nJournal of Economic Growth, 8 ,155--194.\n\nAlmeida, H. and Ferreira, D. (2002).\nDemocracy and the Variablity of Economic Performance.\nEconomics and Politics, 14, 225--257.\n\nAmemiya, T. (1982).\nTwo Stage Least Absolute Deviations Estimators.\nEconometrica, 50, 689--711.\n\nArellano, M. and Bond, S. (1991).\nSome Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations.\nReview of Economic Studies, 58, 277--297.\n\nBardhan, P. (1993).\nSymposium on Democracy and Development.\nJournal of Economic Perspectives, 7, 45--49.\n\nBarlevy, G. and Tsiddon, D. (2006).\nEarnings Inequality and the Business Cycle.\nEuropean Economic Review, 50, 55--89.\n\nBarro, R. J. (1996).\nDemocracy and Growth.\nJournal of Economic Growth, 1, 1--27.\n\nBarro, R. J. (1997).\nDeterminants of Economic Growth: A Cross-Country Empirical Study.\nCambridge,MA: MIT Press.\n\nBarro, R. J. (1999).\nDeterminants of Democracy.\nJournal of Political Economy, 107, 158--184.\n\nBarro, R. J. (2000).\nInequality and Growth in a Panel of Countries.\nJournal of Economic Growth, 5, 5--32.\n\nBarro, R. J. and Lee, J.W. (2010).\nA New Data Set of Educational Attainment in the World, 1950-2010.\nNational Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper No.15902. (http://www.barrolee.com/)\n\nBaum, M. A. and Lake, D. A. (2003).\nThe Political Economy of Growth: Democracy and Human Capital.\nAmerican Journal of Political Science, 47, 333--347.\n\nBecker, G. S. and Barro, R. J. (1988).\nA Reformulation of the Economic Theory of Fertility?\nQuarterly Journal of Economics, 103, 1--25.\n\nBluedorn, J. C. (2001).\nCan Democracy Help? Growth and Ethnic Division.\nEconomics Letters, 70, 121--126.\n\nBlundell, R., and Bond, S. (1998).\nInitial Conditions and Moment Restrictions in Dynamic Panel Data Models.\nJournal of Econometrics, 87, 115--143.\n\nBollen, K. A. (1990).\nPolitical Democracy: Conceptual and Measurement Traps.\nStudies in Comparative International Development, 25, 7--24.\n\nBremmer, I. (2006).\nThe J Curve: A New Way to Understand Why Nations Rise and Fall.\nNew York: Simon and Schuster.\n\nChernozhukov, V. and Hansen, C. (2005).\nAn IV Model of Quantile Treatment Effects.\nEconometrica, 73, 245--261.\n\nChernozhukov, V. and Hansen, C. (2006).\nInstrumental Quantile Regression Inference for Structural and Treatment Effect Models.\nJournal of Econometrics, 132, 491--525.\n\nChernozhukov, V. and Hansen, C. (2008).\nInstrumental Variable Quantile Regression: A Robust Inference Approach.\nJournal of Econometrics, 142, 379--398.\n\nChua, A. (2002).\nWorld on Fire: How Exporting Free Market Democracy Breeds Ethnic Hatred and Global Instability.\nNew York: Doubleday.\n\nCuberes, D. and Jerzmanowski, M. (2009).\nDemocracy, Diversification and Growth Reversals.\nEconomic Journal, 119, 1270--1302.\n\nDoucouliagos, H. and Ulubasoglu, M. A. (2008).\nDemocracy and Economic Growth: A Meta-Analysis.\nAmerican Journal of Political Science, 52, 61--83.\n\nEasterly, W. (2001).\nCan Institutions Resolve Ethnic Conflict?\nEconomic Development and Cultural Change, 49, 687--706.\n\nEasterly, W. and Kraay, A. (2000).\nSmall States, Small Problems? Income, Growth, and Volatility in Small States.\nWorld Development, 28, 2013--2027.\n\nEasterly, W. and Levine, R. (1997).\nAfrica`s Growth Tragedy: Policies and Ethnic Divisions.\nQuarterly Journal of Economics, 112, 1203--1250.\n\nEasterly, W., Islam, R., and Stiglitz, J. (2000).\nExplaining Growth Volatility.\nWorld Bank Working Paper, 04/13.\n\nGalvao, A. and Mones-Rojas, G. 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