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題名 焦點檢定方法比較
A simulation study for evaluating focused tests of cluster detection作者 蔡丞庭 貢獻者 余清祥
蔡丞庭關鍵詞 群聚偵測
焦點檢定
癌症死亡率
檢定力
電腦模擬
cluster detection
focused test
cancer mortality
power
computer simulation日期 2011 上傳時間 5-Sep-2013 15:12:42 (UTC+8) 摘要 臺灣的癌症發生率及死亡率有連年增加的趨勢，研究指出原因可能與環境中的污染物質有關，檢測可能的污染源附近是否存在癌症群聚(Cluster)，將有助於未來的癌症防治。在空間統計(Spatial Statistics)有不少方法可用於檢測群聚現象，其中用來檢測某個特定位置周圍是否發生群聚的方法被稱為焦點檢定(Focused Test)，本文介紹及評估常用的焦點檢定方法，並使用較佳方法探討臺灣地區疑似污染源的地區。首先本文使用電腦模擬，在不同情境假設下比較焦點檢定方法的檢定力(Power)，例如研究區域大小、群聚形狀等不同的情境，以判斷檢定方法之間的優劣。最後本文分析臺灣鄉鎮市(Township)層級癌症死亡資料，應用焦點檢定方法分析石門核一廠、恆春核三廠及麥寮六輕周圍的癌症死亡率，檢定結果發現核一廠及麥寮六輕附近有較高的癌症死亡率。
The cancer incidence and mortality rate in Taiwan have been increasing over the past 30 years. Previous studies indicate that the pollution sources, especially for those creating air pollution and excess radiation, are one of the potential causes for the increment. Correctly, detecting the location of possible sources of contaminants can help for cancer prevention. In spatial statistics, focused test can be used to determine if the intensity rate are higher around a possible pollution source. We will introduce and evaluate frequently used focused tests and apply them in Taiwan.First we use computer simulation to compare the power of focused tests in different scenarios, such as study region and cluster shape. Next, we apply the focused tests to Taiwan cancer mortality data, in order to decide if the cancer mortality rates are higher around Chinshan nuclear power plant, Maanshan nuclear power plant, and Mailiao sixth naphtha cracker. The results show that the cancer mortality rates around Chinshan nuclear power plant and Mailiao sixth naphtha cracker are significantly higher.參考文獻 Besag, J. and Newell, J. “The detection of clusters in rare diseases”, Journal of Royal Statistical Society, Series A 154:143-155 (1991).Bithell, J.F. “The choice of test for detecting raised disease risk near a point source”, Statistical in Medicine 14:2309-2322 (1995).Diggle, P.J. “A point process modelling approach to raised incidence of a rare phenomenon in the vicinity of a prespecified point. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A 153:349-362 (1990).Kulldorff, M. and Nagarwalla N. “Spatial disease clusters: detection and inference”, Statistical in Medicine 14:799-810 (1995).Kulldorff, M. “A spatial scan statistic”, Communications in Statistics–Theory and Methods, 26(6): 1481-96 (1997).Kulldorff , M. ”Tests for spatial randomness adjusting for an underlying inhomogeneity: a generalFramework”, Journal of the American Statistical Association 101:1289-1305 (2006).Knox, G. “Detection of low intensity epidemicity”, British Journal of Preventive and Social Medicine 17:121-127 (1963).Lawson AB. “On the analysis of mortality events associated with a prespecified fixed point”, Journal of Royal Statistical Society, Series A 156:363-377 (1993) .Lawson, A.B. and Waller, L. “A review of point pattern methods for spatial modelling of events around sources of pollution”, Environmetrics 7:471-488 (1996).Lawson, A.B. and Denison, D. “Spatial Cluster Modelling”, CRC Press, New York (2002).Lawson, A.B.” Statistical methods in spatial epidemiology”, Wiley, New York (2006).Lawson, A.B, Williams F.L.R. “Armadale: a case-study in environmental epidemiology”, Journal of Royal Statistical Society, Series A 157:285-298 (1994).Marshal, R. C.”A review of the statistical analysis of spatial patterns of disease”, Journal of Royal Statistical Society, Series A 154:421-441 (1991). Puett, R.C., Lawson, A.B., Clark, A.B., Herbert, J.R. and Kulldorff, M. “Power evaluation of focused cluster tests”, Environmental and Ecological Statistics 7:303-316 (2010).Stone, R.A. “Investigations of excess environmental risks around putative sources: statistical problems and a proposed test”, Statistical in Medicine 7:649-660(1988).Sun, Y. “Determining the size of spatial clusters in focused tests: Comparing two methods by means of simulation in a GIS”, Journal of Geographical Systems 4:359-370(2002).Tango, T. “A class of tests for detecting general and focused clustering of rare diseases”, Statistical in Medicine 14:2323-2334(1995).Tango, T. “Score tests for detecting excess risks around putative sources”, Statistical in Medicine 21:497-514 (2002).Tango, T. “Statistical methods for disease clustering”, Springer, New York (2010).Waller, L.A. “Book Review of Methods for investigating localized clustering of disease”, Statistics in Medicine 17:1531-1535 (1998).Waller, L.A. and Turnbull, B.W. “The effects of scale on tests for disease clustering”, Statistical in Medicine 12:1869-1884 (1993).Waller, L.A. “Statistical power and design of focused clustering studies”, Statistical in Medicine 15:765-782 (1996).Waller, L.A and Lawson, A.B. “The power of focused tests to detect disease clustering”, Statistical in Medicine 14:2291-2308 (1995).陳楓玲. “A Simulation Study of Detecting Cluster: An Application to Taiwan Cancer Mortality”, 臺灣智慧科技與應用統計學術研究會 (2003)。 描述 碩士
國立政治大學
統計研究所
98354011
100資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0098354011 資料類型 thesis dc.contributor.advisor 余清祥 zh_TW dc.contributor.author (Authors) 蔡丞庭 zh_TW dc.creator (作者) 蔡丞庭 zh_TW dc.date (日期) 2011 en_US dc.date.accessioned 5-Sep-2013 15:12:42 (UTC+8) - dc.date.available 5-Sep-2013 15:12:42 (UTC+8) - dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 5-Sep-2013 15:12:42 (UTC+8) - dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0098354011 en_US dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/60441 - dc.description (描述) 碩士 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 統計研究所 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 98354011 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 100 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) 臺灣的癌症發生率及死亡率有連年增加的趨勢，研究指出原因可能與環境中的污染物質有關，檢測可能的污染源附近是否存在癌症群聚(Cluster)，將有助於未來的癌症防治。在空間統計(Spatial Statistics)有不少方法可用於檢測群聚現象，其中用來檢測某個特定位置周圍是否發生群聚的方法被稱為焦點檢定(Focused Test)，本文介紹及評估常用的焦點檢定方法，並使用較佳方法探討臺灣地區疑似污染源的地區。首先本文使用電腦模擬，在不同情境假設下比較焦點檢定方法的檢定力(Power)，例如研究區域大小、群聚形狀等不同的情境，以判斷檢定方法之間的優劣。最後本文分析臺灣鄉鎮市(Township)層級癌症死亡資料，應用焦點檢定方法分析石門核一廠、恆春核三廠及麥寮六輕周圍的癌症死亡率，檢定結果發現核一廠及麥寮六輕附近有較高的癌症死亡率。 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) The cancer incidence and mortality rate in Taiwan have been increasing over the past 30 years. Previous studies indicate that the pollution sources, especially for those creating air pollution and excess radiation, are one of the potential causes for the increment. Correctly, detecting the location of possible sources of contaminants can help for cancer prevention. In spatial statistics, focused test can be used to determine if the intensity rate are higher around a possible pollution source. We will introduce and evaluate frequently used focused tests and apply them in Taiwan.First we use computer simulation to compare the power of focused tests in different scenarios, such as study region and cluster shape. Next, we apply the focused tests to Taiwan cancer mortality data, in order to decide if the cancer mortality rates are higher around Chinshan nuclear power plant, Maanshan nuclear power plant, and Mailiao sixth naphtha cracker. The results show that the cancer mortality rates around Chinshan nuclear power plant and Mailiao sixth naphtha cracker are significantly higher. en_US dc.description.tableofcontents 第一章 緒論.................................1第一節 研究動機...............................1第二節 研究目的...............................3第二章 文獻探討.............................4第一節 群聚檢測方法...........................4（一）總體檢定.................................4（二）局部檢定.................................5（三）焦點檢定.................................5第二節 焦點檢定方法介紹.......................6（一）統計假設.................................6（二）焦點檢定方法.............................81. Bithell’s LRS Test.........................82. Waller and Lawson’s Score Test.............83. Stone’s MLR Test and Pmax Test.............94. Tango’s Extended Score Test...............115. Kulldorff’s spatial scan test.............11第三節 群聚模型..............................12第四節 局部檢定與焦點檢定....................14第三章 模擬比較焦點檢定方法................17第一節 模擬背景介紹.........................17第二節 背景因素..............................17（一）事件發生率..............................18（二）區塊人口數..............................19（三）研究區域................................20第三節 群聚因素.............................21（一）比較ST與LRS.............................21（二）圓形群聚................................22（三）方向性群聚..............................24（四）資料探索................................27第四節 檢測位置.............................31第五節 模擬小結與使用建議...................34第四章 實證應用............................36第一節 模擬背景介紹.........................36第二節 模擬驗證.............................36第三節 實證模擬.............................39第四節 模擬小結.............................43第五章 結論與建議..........................44第一節 結論.................................44第二節 後續研究建議.........................45參考文獻 ..................................47 zh_TW dc.format.extent 1531104 bytes - dc.format.mimetype application/pdf - dc.language.iso en_US - dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0098354011 en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) 群聚偵測 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 焦點檢定 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 癌症死亡率 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 檢定力 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 電腦模擬 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) cluster detection en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) focused test en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) cancer mortality en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) power en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) computer simulation en_US dc.title (題名) 焦點檢定方法比較 zh_TW dc.title (題名) A simulation study for evaluating focused tests of cluster detection en_US dc.type (資料類型) thesis en dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Besag, J. and Newell, J. “The detection of clusters in rare diseases”, Journal of Royal Statistical Society, Series A 154:143-155 (1991).Bithell, J.F. “The choice of test for detecting raised disease risk near a point source”, Statistical in Medicine 14:2309-2322 (1995).Diggle, P.J. “A point process modelling approach to raised incidence of a rare phenomenon in the vicinity of a prespecified point. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A 153:349-362 (1990).Kulldorff, M. and Nagarwalla N. “Spatial disease clusters: detection and inference”, Statistical in Medicine 14:799-810 (1995).Kulldorff, M. “A spatial scan statistic”, Communications in Statistics–Theory and Methods, 26(6): 1481-96 (1997).Kulldorff , M. ”Tests for spatial randomness adjusting for an underlying inhomogeneity: a generalFramework”, Journal of the American Statistical Association 101:1289-1305 (2006).Knox, G. “Detection of low intensity epidemicity”, British Journal of Preventive and Social Medicine 17:121-127 (1963).Lawson AB. “On the analysis of mortality events associated with a prespecified fixed point”, Journal of Royal Statistical Society, Series A 156:363-377 (1993) .Lawson, A.B. and Waller, L. “A review of point pattern methods for spatial modelling of events around sources of pollution”, Environmetrics 7:471-488 (1996).Lawson, A.B. and Denison, D. “Spatial Cluster Modelling”, CRC Press, New York (2002).Lawson, A.B.” Statistical methods in spatial epidemiology”, Wiley, New York (2006).Lawson, A.B, Williams F.L.R. “Armadale: a case-study in environmental epidemiology”, Journal of Royal Statistical Society, Series A 157:285-298 (1994).Marshal, R. C.”A review of the statistical analysis of spatial patterns of disease”, Journal of Royal Statistical Society, Series A 154:421-441 (1991). Puett, R.C., Lawson, A.B., Clark, A.B., Herbert, J.R. and Kulldorff, M. “Power evaluation of focused cluster tests”, Environmental and Ecological Statistics 7:303-316 (2010).Stone, R.A. “Investigations of excess environmental risks around putative sources: statistical problems and a proposed test”, Statistical in Medicine 7:649-660(1988).Sun, Y. “Determining the size of spatial clusters in focused tests: Comparing two methods by means of simulation in a GIS”, Journal of Geographical Systems 4:359-370(2002).Tango, T. “A class of tests for detecting general and focused clustering of rare diseases”, Statistical in Medicine 14:2323-2334(1995).Tango, T. “Score tests for detecting excess risks around putative sources”, Statistical in Medicine 21:497-514 (2002).Tango, T. “Statistical methods for disease clustering”, Springer, New York (2010).Waller, L.A. “Book Review of Methods for investigating localized clustering of disease”, Statistics in Medicine 17:1531-1535 (1998).Waller, L.A. and Turnbull, B.W. “The effects of scale on tests for disease clustering”, Statistical in Medicine 12:1869-1884 (1993).Waller, L.A. “Statistical power and design of focused clustering studies”, Statistical in Medicine 15:765-782 (1996).Waller, L.A and Lawson, A.B. “The power of focused tests to detect disease clustering”, Statistical in Medicine 14:2291-2308 (1995).陳楓玲. “A Simulation Study of Detecting Cluster: An Application to Taiwan Cancer Mortality”, 臺灣智慧科技與應用統計學術研究會 (2003)。 zh_TW
