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題名 從世代差異解釋恆常所得消費假說
Permanent Income Hypothesis and generation difference作者 侯竣譯
Hou, Chun Yi貢獻者 郭炳伸<br>林信助
Kuo, Biing Shen<br>Lin, Shinn Juh
侯竣譯
Hou, Chun Yi關鍵詞 消費
追蹤性資料
景氣波動
Consumption
Panel data
Economic fluctuation日期 2010 上傳時間 5-Sep-2013 16:50:26 (UTC+8) 摘要 恆常所得假說認為消費者依終生期望所得來做消費規劃，不受短暫性所得變動而改變消費。然實際資料顯示：在景氣循環過程中，暫時性所得變動確會影響消費變動，顯示該假說實際上不成立。本文利用華人家庭動態資料庫，配合追蹤性資料的計量方法來進行檢測該假說。實證結果發現：消費行為違反恆常所得假說。接著加入景氣變換來解釋消費違反恆常所得假說導因於流動性限制。最後利用追蹤性資料的特性，從世代差異的角度看消費者違反恆常所得假說，發現不同世代受流動性限制的影響效果不同，隨著年齡增加，消費者違反恆常所得假說的情況愈弱。
Permanent income hypothesis(PIH) states that consumers make choices regarding their longer-term income expectations. Transitory income variety could not affect consumption. However, the reality is that consumption would be affected by transitory income during economic fluctuation, and this fact violates the hypothesis. Due to this reason, this paper use Taiwanese panel data : PSFD(Panel Study of Family Dynamics) and econometric model to test the hypothesis. In the empirical results, we concluded: Taiwanese consumption violated PIH. Then generation difference was incorporated into the model to explain the degree of violation of PIH. And the result explained that the generation difference exists in the degree of PIH’s violation.參考文獻 郭炳伸．鍾景婷 (2002), “消費行為受資金流動性限制嗎? 經濟景氣的不對稱效果”, 經濟論文, 30(4), 443–472黃朝熙 (1999a), “恆常所得與流動性限制-一個時間數列資料的實證研究”, 經濟論文, 27, 23–48黃朝熙 (1999b), “台灣消費函數之時間序列實證研究-消費對當前所得的回應”, 經濟論文, 24, 23–48詹維玲 (2009), “臺灣生命循環消費與退休”, 臺灣經濟預測與政策, 39(2), 129–159Altonji, J.G. and Siow, A. (1987), “Testing the response of consumption to income changes with (noisy) panel data”, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 102(2), 293.Anderson, T.W. and Hsiao, C. (1982), “Formulation and estimation of dynamic models using panel data”, Journal of econometrics, 18(1), 47–82.Arellano, M. and Bover, O. (1995), “Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error-components models* 1”, Journal of econometrics, 68(1), 29–51.Attanasio, O. and Browning, M. (1993), “Consumption over the life cycle and over the business cycle”, National Bureau of Economic Research Cambridge, Mass., USA.5d. 28Attanasio, O. and Weber, G. (1994a), “Is consumption growth consistent with intertemporal optimization? evidence from the consumer expenditure survey”, National Bureau of Economic Research Cambridge, Mass., USA.Attanasio, O. and Weber, G.(1994b), “Is consumption growth consistent with intertemporal optimization? evidence from the consumer expenditure survey”, National Bureau of Economic Research Cambridge, Mass., USA.Attanasio, O.P. and Weber, G. (1993), “Consumption growth, the interest rate and aggregation”, The Review of Economic Studies, 60(3), 631.Bond, S.R. (2002), “Dynamic panel data models: a guide to micro data methods and practice”, Portuguese Economic Journal, 1(2), 141–162.Campbell, J.Y. and Mankiw, N.G. (1991), “The response of consumption to income”, European Economic Review, 35(1991), 723–67.DeJuan, J.P. and Seater, J.J. (1999), “The permanent income hypothesis: Evidence from the consumer expenditure survey”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 43(2), 351–376.Fernandez-Villaverde, J. and Krueger, D. (2002), “Consumption and saving over the life cycle: How important are consumer durables?”, Macroeconomic Dynamics, 1(-1), 1–46.Hall, R.E. (1978), “Stochastic implications of the life cycle-permanent income hypothesis: Theory and evidence”, The Journal of Political Economy, 86(6), 971–987.Hayashi, F. (1982a), “The effect of liquidity constraints on consumption: a cross-sectional analysis”,National Bureau of Economic Research Cambridge, Mass., USA.Hayashi, F.(1982b), “The permanent income hypothesis: estimation and testing by instrumental variables”, The Journal of Political Economy, 90(5), 895–916.5d. 29Keane, M.P. and Runkle, D.E. (1992), “On the estimation of panel-data models with serial correlation when instruments are not strictly exogenous”, Journal of Business &Economic Statistics, 10(1), 1–9.Parker, J. and Preston, B. (2002), “Precautionary saving and consumption fluctuations”, National Bureau of Economic Research Cambridge, Mass., USA.Serlenga, Laura (2002), “Three alternative approaches to test the permanent income hypothesis in dynamic panels”, series 0005, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Metodi Matematici-Universita di Bari, URL: http://ideas.repec.org/p/bai/series/wp0005.html.Shea, J. (1995), “Myopia, liquidity constraints, and aggregate consumption: a simple test”, Journal of money, credit and banking, 27(3), 798–805.Zeldes, S.P. (1989), “Consumption and liquidity constraints: An empirical investigation”, The Journal of Political Economy, 97(2), 305–346. 描述 碩士
國立政治大學
國際經營與貿易研究所
98351018
99資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0098351018 資料類型 thesis dc.contributor.advisor 郭炳伸<br>林信助 zh_TW dc.contributor.advisor Kuo, Biing Shen<br>Lin, Shinn Juh en_US dc.contributor.author (Authors) 侯竣譯 zh_TW dc.contributor.author (Authors) Hou, Chun Yi en_US dc.creator (作者) 侯竣譯 zh_TW dc.creator (作者) Hou, Chun Yi en_US dc.date (日期) 2010 en_US dc.date.accessioned 5-Sep-2013 16:50:26 (UTC+8) - dc.date.available 5-Sep-2013 16:50:26 (UTC+8) - dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 5-Sep-2013 16:50:26 (UTC+8) - dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0098351018 en_US dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/60529 - dc.description (描述) 碩士 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 國際經營與貿易研究所 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 98351018 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 99 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) 恆常所得假說認為消費者依終生期望所得來做消費規劃，不受短暫性所得變動而改變消費。然實際資料顯示：在景氣循環過程中，暫時性所得變動確會影響消費變動，顯示該假說實際上不成立。本文利用華人家庭動態資料庫，配合追蹤性資料的計量方法來進行檢測該假說。實證結果發現：消費行為違反恆常所得假說。接著加入景氣變換來解釋消費違反恆常所得假說導因於流動性限制。最後利用追蹤性資料的特性，從世代差異的角度看消費者違反恆常所得假說，發現不同世代受流動性限制的影響效果不同，隨著年齡增加，消費者違反恆常所得假說的情況愈弱。 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) Permanent income hypothesis(PIH) states that consumers make choices regarding their longer-term income expectations. Transitory income variety could not affect consumption. However, the reality is that consumption would be affected by transitory income during economic fluctuation, and this fact violates the hypothesis. Due to this reason, this paper use Taiwanese panel data : PSFD(Panel Study of Family Dynamics) and econometric model to test the hypothesis. In the empirical results, we concluded: Taiwanese consumption violated PIH. Then generation difference was incorporated into the model to explain the degree of violation of PIH. And the result explained that the generation difference exists in the degree of PIH’s violation. en_US dc.description.tableofcontents 1. 緒論 . . . . . . 12. 理論架構 . . . . . 63. 資料選取和計量方法 . . 103.1 資料選取 . . . 103.2 計量方法 . . . 114. 實證結果 . . . . . 145. 結論 . . . . . .25 zh_TW dc.format.extent 679618 bytes - dc.format.extent 362853 bytes - dc.format.mimetype application/pdf - dc.format.mimetype application/pdf - dc.language.iso en_US - dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0098351018 en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) 消費 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 追蹤性資料 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 景氣波動 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) Consumption en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Panel data en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Economic fluctuation en_US dc.title (題名) 從世代差異解釋恆常所得消費假說 zh_TW dc.title (題名) Permanent Income Hypothesis and generation difference en_US dc.type (資料類型) thesis en dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 郭炳伸．鍾景婷 (2002), “消費行為受資金流動性限制嗎? 經濟景氣的不對稱效果”, 經濟論文, 30(4), 443–472黃朝熙 (1999a), “恆常所得與流動性限制-一個時間數列資料的實證研究”, 經濟論文, 27, 23–48黃朝熙 (1999b), “台灣消費函數之時間序列實證研究-消費對當前所得的回應”, 經濟論文, 24, 23–48詹維玲 (2009), “臺灣生命循環消費與退休”, 臺灣經濟預測與政策, 39(2), 129–159Altonji, J.G. and Siow, A. (1987), “Testing the response of consumption to income changes with (noisy) panel data”, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 102(2), 293.Anderson, T.W. and Hsiao, C. (1982), “Formulation and estimation of dynamic models using panel data”, Journal of econometrics, 18(1), 47–82.Arellano, M. and Bover, O. (1995), “Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error-components models* 1”, Journal of econometrics, 68(1), 29–51.Attanasio, O. and Browning, M. (1993), “Consumption over the life cycle and over the business cycle”, National Bureau of Economic Research Cambridge, Mass., USA.5d. 28Attanasio, O. and Weber, G. (1994a), “Is consumption growth consistent with intertemporal optimization? evidence from the consumer expenditure survey”, National Bureau of Economic Research Cambridge, Mass., USA.Attanasio, O. and Weber, G.(1994b), “Is consumption growth consistent with intertemporal optimization? evidence from the consumer expenditure survey”, National Bureau of Economic Research Cambridge, Mass., USA.Attanasio, O.P. and Weber, G. (1993), “Consumption growth, the interest rate and aggregation”, The Review of Economic Studies, 60(3), 631.Bond, S.R. (2002), “Dynamic panel data models: a guide to micro data methods and practice”, Portuguese Economic Journal, 1(2), 141–162.Campbell, J.Y. and Mankiw, N.G. (1991), “The response of consumption to income”, European Economic Review, 35(1991), 723–67.DeJuan, J.P. and Seater, J.J. (1999), “The permanent income hypothesis: Evidence from the consumer expenditure survey”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 43(2), 351–376.Fernandez-Villaverde, J. and Krueger, D. (2002), “Consumption and saving over the life cycle: How important are consumer durables?”, Macroeconomic Dynamics, 1(-1), 1–46.Hall, R.E. (1978), “Stochastic implications of the life cycle-permanent income hypothesis: Theory and evidence”, The Journal of Political Economy, 86(6), 971–987.Hayashi, F. (1982a), “The effect of liquidity constraints on consumption: a cross-sectional analysis”,National Bureau of Economic Research Cambridge, Mass., USA.Hayashi, F.(1982b), “The permanent income hypothesis: estimation and testing by instrumental variables”, The Journal of Political Economy, 90(5), 895–916.5d. 29Keane, M.P. and Runkle, D.E. (1992), “On the estimation of panel-data models with serial correlation when instruments are not strictly exogenous”, Journal of Business &Economic Statistics, 10(1), 1–9.Parker, J. and Preston, B. (2002), “Precautionary saving and consumption fluctuations”, National Bureau of Economic Research Cambridge, Mass., USA.Serlenga, Laura (2002), “Three alternative approaches to test the permanent income hypothesis in dynamic panels”, series 0005, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Metodi Matematici-Universita di Bari, URL: http://ideas.repec.org/p/bai/series/wp0005.html.Shea, J. (1995), “Myopia, liquidity constraints, and aggregate consumption: a simple test”, Journal of money, credit and banking, 27(3), 798–805.Zeldes, S.P. (1989), “Consumption and liquidity constraints: An empirical investigation”, The Journal of Political Economy, 97(2), 305–346. zh_TW
