| dc.contributor | 勞工所 | en_US |
| dc.creator (作者) | 初國華; 張昌吉 | zh_TW |
| dc.creator (作者) | Chu, Gwo-Hua ; Chang, Chun-Chig | en_US |
| dc.date (日期) | 2013.07 | en_US |
| dc.date.accessioned | 24-Jan-2014 17:47:43 (UTC+8) | - |
| dc.date.available | 24-Jan-2014 17:47:43 (UTC+8) | - |
| dc.date.issued (上傳時間) | 24-Jan-2014 17:47:43 (UTC+8) | - |
| dc.identifier.uri (URI) | http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/63586 | - |
| dc.description.abstract (摘要) | 天安門事件後的中國崩潰論，直到九○年代的中後期，仍在國際間不絕於耳。但若對照當今的中國崛起，則這都屬理論預測或經驗判斷對事實的落差或預測失準，這是值得研究的。至於，如何解釋與調適崩潰論與現實中國的落差，並嘗試改善對中國預測的模型，則是本文之研究目的。共產國家國際結構骨牌分析以及政治保守、經濟改革的崩潰預測，其推論過程都忽略中共因素的反應與抵制，以及中共回應外界變遷與挑戰的能力。本文擬從國家能力觀點對上述議題作分析。 | en_US |
| dc.description.abstract (摘要) | Since the appearance of the China collapse theory after the Tiananmen incident, discussions over the Middle Kingdom`s collapse have been incessant. However, compared with China`s rise today, it is interesting to observe the theory`s failed prediction and misinterpretation of empirical evidences. This article aims to close the gulf between theory and reality and improve on models that attempt to forecast China`s future. Domino theories and pessimistic predictions about communist states fail to take into account the CCP`s ability to react and respond to changes and challenges from the outside world. This article tackles the issue from the approach of state capacity theory. | en_US |
| dc.format.extent | 1011837 bytes | - |
| dc.format.mimetype | application/pdf | - |
| dc.language.iso | en_US | - |
| dc.relation (關聯) | 全球政治評論, 43,41-70 | en_US |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | 中國崩潰論;中國預測;國家能力;黨國體制 | en_US |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | China Collapse Thesis;Predict China;State Capacity;Party State Regime | en_US |
| dc.title (題名) | 中國國家能力研究與崩潰論失準討論 | zh_TW |
| dc.title.alternative (其他題名) | A Study Approach of State Capacity towards China Collapse Thesis | en_US |
| dc.type (資料類型) | article | en |
