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題名 創意市場之開發與運用:以「國寶人壽登峰造極計畫」為例
The development and application of idea market: the case study of Global Life Insurance Idea Market Project
作者 杜映磊
貢獻者 童振源
杜映磊
關鍵詞 創意市場
群眾智慧
創意開發
創意評鑑
日期 2013
上傳時間 10-Feb-2014 14:59:12 (UTC+8)
摘要 群眾智慧最大的優點在於:即使不是高層人員,也能夠很有貢獻。一群擁有不同問題處理能力的人,大家共同集思廣益,就能發揮出比聰明的人更優秀的表現,可見多元性比才智來得更重要。創意的開發和評鑑兩者是相輔相成的,一個創意要成功,除了本身是優良的提案之外,評鑑創意的過程也必須準確,讓好的想法更容易突顯、被看見且得到資助,創意市場即開闢了一個嶄新的途徑。
本研究主要目的在於建立一個結合創意開發和創意評鑑兩階段,可以互動交流的「創意市場」平台,讓參與者在匿名的平等討論環境下,自願性地投入個人想法、資訊,並有效將訊息加以彙整聚集。在創意市場中公開發布創意內容,企圖激發學習效果,以虛擬貨幣交易買賣,進行篩選及評鑑作業,評估創意之優劣。同時提供獎勵誘因,鼓勵更多元、新穎的想法,提升參與交易評鑑之意願和洞察能力,以優化評鑑結果。發揮集體智慧功用,幫助國家、公司企業等單位了解目前的趨勢動態,共同面對未來不確定性、複雜多變的情境,有效開發新商品、服務以及未來發展之方針。
本研究主要根據政大與國寶人壽之產學合作計畫,從旁觀察記錄並透過量化的方式,分析市場平台交易數據和問卷結果,發掘創意市場在新產品和策略開發上之成效表現。結果證實,提供獎勵誘因和匿名機制有助於提升參與者之意願,並激發學習效果。創意市場比公司既有決策產生數量更豐富、內容多元性的創新想法。同時,與常見的遴選方式網路投票做比較,在評鑑之鑑別力和認同度上,創意市場的表現較佳。無論在可行性、創新性、預期效益等方面,創意市場產生結果獲得參與者正面評價,主管級人士亦認同創意市場工具,並認為值得推薦給其他企業或產業。
參考文獻 中文專書
[1] 陳義彥,2001。《民意調查》。台北:五南。
[2] 陳義彥、黃紀、洪永泰、盛杏湲、游清鑫、鄭夙芬、陳陸輝、蔡佳泓合著,2009。《民意調查新論》。台北:五南。
[3] 童振源、池秉聰、戴中擎、葉家興、杜映磊,2013。《國寶人壽登峰造極創意市場計畫結案報告》。
中文譯著
[1] Alex F. Osborn著,師範譯,2004。《實用想像學》(Applied Imagination)。台北市:文藝生活書房。
[2] James Surowiecki著,楊玉齡譯,2005。《群眾的智慧:如何讓個人、 團隊、企業與社會變得更聰明》(The Wisdom of Crowd)。台北:遠流。
[3] Juanita Brown and David Isaacs著,高子梅譯,2007。《世界咖啡館》(The World Cafe: shaping our futures through conversations that matter)。台北市:臉譜出版社。
[4] Peter M. Senge著,郭進隆譯,1994。《第五項修煉:學習型組織的藝術與實務》(The Fifth Discipline―The Art and Practice of the Learning Organization)。台北市:天下文化。
[5] Peter Miller著,林俊宏譯,2010。《群的智慧─向螞蟻、蜜蜂、飛鳥學習組織運作絕技》(The Smart Swarm:How Understanding Flocks, Schools, and Colonies Can Make Us Better at Communicating, Decision Making, and Getting Things Done)。台北:天下文化。
[6] Richard J. Crisp and Rhiannon N. Turner著,李政賢譯,2009。《社會心理學》(Social Psychology)。台北市:五南。
[7] Wolfgang Donsbach and Michael W. Traugott著,國家教育研究院主譯,楊雅婷、梁書寧、楊濟鶴譯,2012。《民意與民調研究》。新北市:韋伯文化國際。
期刊論文
[1] 曾玠郡、王孫崇和李世炳,2008年6月。〈從選舉預測到經濟物理學實驗-談臺灣政治期貨交易中心之演進〉,《物理雙月刊》,30卷3期,頁265-268。
網際網路
[1] 未來事件交易所。< http://xfuture.org/>最後瀏覽日:2013/12/15。
[2] 林欣靜,2010。〈「未來事件交易所」成交未來〉,《光華雜誌》,頁46-56。最後瀏覽日:2013/09/15。
[3] 保險業公開資訊觀測站。最後瀏覽日:2013/12/13。
[4] 財團法人保險事業發展中心。最後瀏覽日:2013/12/13。
[5] 國寶人壽企業網站。最後瀏覽日:2013/12/14
[6] 譚瑾瑜,2013.ECFA第二階段降稅成果及ECFA後續談判的發展。最後瀏覽日:2013/12/15。
官方文件
[1] 行政院衛生署疾病管制局99 年度科技研究發展計畫,2010/12/20。〈以預測市場理論建構傳染病預測模式研究報告〉。
英文專書
[1] Philip E. Tetlock, 2006. Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know? Princeton: Princeton University Press.
英文期刊論文
[1] Arina Soukhoroukova, Martin Spann, and Bernd Skiera, 2007. “Creating and Evaluating New Product Ideas with Idea Markets.” Produktinnovation mit.
[2] Arina Soukhoroukova, Martin Spann, and Bernd Skiera, 2012. “Sourcing, Filtering, and Evaluating New Product Ideas: An Empirical Exploration of the Performance of Idea Markets,” Journal of Product Innovation Management, Vol. 29, No. 1, pp. 100–112.
[3] Bo Cowgill, Justin Wolfers, and Eric Zitzewitz, 2009. “Using Prediction Markets to Track Information Flows: Evidence from Google,” Auctions, Market Mechanisms and Their Applications, Vol. 14.
[4] Brain Spears, Christina LaComb, John Interrante, Janet Barnett and Deniz Senturk-Dogonaksoy, 2009. “Examining Trader Behavior in Idea Markets: An Implementation of GE`s Imagination Markets,” Journal of Prediction Market, Vol. 3, pp. 17-39.
[5] Charles F. Manski, 2006. “Interpreting The Prediction of Prediction Markets,” Economic Letters, Vol. 91, Issue 3, pp. 425-429.
[6] Chia-Chien Hsu, and Brian A. Sandford, 2007. “The Delphi Technique: Making Sense Of Consensus,” Practical Assessment, Research & Evaluation, Vol. 12, No. 10, pp.1.
[7] Christina Ann LaComb, Janet Arlie Barnett, and Qimei Pan, 2007. “The imagination market,” Information Systems Frontiers, Vol. 9, No. 2, pp.245-256.
[8] David M. Pennock, Steve Lawrence, C. Lee Giles, and Finn Arup Nielsen, 2001. “The power of play: Efficiency and forecast accuracy in web market games,” NEC Research Institute Technical Report.
[9] Efthimios Bothos, Dimitris Apostolou, and Gregoris Mentzas, 2009. “ IDEM:A Prediction Market for Idea Management,” Designing E-Business Systems. Markets, Services, and Networks, Vol. 22, pp. 1-13.
[10] Efthimios Bothos, Dimitris Apostolou, and Gregoris Mentzas, 2009. “Collective intelligence for idea management with Internet-based information aggregation market,” Internet Research, Vol. 19, No. 1, pp.26-41.
[11] Ely Dahan, Arina Soukhoroukova, and Martin Spann, 2010. “New Product Development 2.0: Preference Markets—How Scalable Securities Markets Identify Winning Product Concepts and Attributes.”Journal of Product Innovation Management, Vol. 27, No. 7, pp. 937–954.
[12] Eugene F. Fama, 1991. “Efficient Capital Markets:Ⅱ,” Journal of Finance, Vol. 66, pp.1575-1617.
[13] Harlan J. Strauss and L. Harmon Zeigler, 1975. “The Delphi Technique and Its Uses In Social Research,” Journal of Creative Behavior, pp.253-259.
[14] J.Scott Armstrong, 1980. “Seer-Sucker Theory:The Value of Expert in Forecasting,” Technology Review, pp. 16-24.
[15] Jay F. Nunamaker, Robert O. Briggs, Daniel D. Mittleman, Douglas R. Vogel, and Pierre A. Balthazard, 1996. "Lessons from a Dozen Years of Group Support Systems Research: A Discussion of Lab and Field Findings", Journal of Management Information Systems, Vol. 13, No. 3, pp. 163–207.
[16] Jillian M. Hender, Thomas L. Rodgers, Douglas L. Dean, and Jay F. Nunamaker, Jr., 2001. “Improving Group Creativity: Brainstorming Versus Non-brainstorming Techniques in a GSS Environment,” Proceedings of the 34th Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences, Vol.1.
[17] Jim Lavoie, 2009. “The Innovation Engine at Rite-Solutions: Lessons from the CEO,” Journal of Prediction Markets, Vol. 3, No. 1, pp. 1-11.
[18] Justin Wolfers and Eric Zitzewitz, 2006. “Interpreting Prediction Market Prices as Probabilities,” NBER Working Paper, No. 12200.
[19] Kay-Yut, Chen and Charles Plott, 2002. “Information Aggregation Mechanisms: Concept, Design and Implementation for a Sales Forecasting Problem.” Social Science Working Paper, No. 1131.
[20] Kesten C. Green, J. Scott Armstrong, and Andreas Graefe, 2007. “Methods to Elicit Forecasts from Groups: Delphi and Prediction Markets Compared,” Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, pp. 17-20.
[21] Marco Ottaviani, 2009. “The Design of Idea Markets: An Economist’s Perspective,” Journal of Prediction Markets, Vol. 3, No. 1, pp. 41-44.
[22] Marion Kristin Poetz and Martin Schreier, 2012. “The Value of Crowdsourcing: Can Users Really Compete with Professionals in Generating New Product Ideas?” Journal of Product Innovation Management, Vol. 29, No. 2, pp. 245-256.
[23] Michael Diehl and Wolfgang Strpebe, 1997. “Productivity Loss In Brainstorming Groups: Toward the Solution of a Riddle,” Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, Vol. 53, No. 3, pp. 497-509.
[24] Muammer Ozer, 2005. “Factors which influence decision making in new product evaluation,” European Journal of Operational Research, Vol.163, pp.784-801.
[25] Olivier Toubia, 2006. “Idea Generation, Creativity, and Incentives,” Marketing Science, Vol. 25, No. 5, pp.411-425.
[26] Philip M. Polgreen, Forrest D. Nelson, and George R. Neumann, 2007. “Use of Prediction Markets to Forecast Infectious Disease Activity,” Oxford Journals, pp.272-279.
[27] R. Brent Gallupe, Alan R. Dennis, William H. Cooper, Joseph S. Valacich, Lana M. Bastianutti, and Jay F. Nunamaker, Jr., 1992. “Electronic Brainstorming and Group Size,” The Academy of Management Journal, Vol. 35, No. 2, pp. 350-369.
[28] Robert Eisenberger, Frances Haskins and Paul Gambleton, 1999. “Promised Reward and Creativity: Effects of Prior Experience,” Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, Vol. 35, No. 3, pp. 308–325.
[29] Robin Hanson and Ryan Oprea, “A Manipulator Can Aid Prediction Market Accuracy.” Economica, Vol. 76, Issue 302, Apr. 2009, pp. 304-314.
[30] Rowe Gene and Wright George, 1999. “The Delphi technique as a forecasting tool: issues and analysis,” International Journal of Forecasting, Vol.15, No. 4, pp.353-375.
[31] Steven G. Kou and Michael E. Sobel, 2004. “Forecasting the Vote: A Theoretical Comparison of Election Markets and Public Opinion Polls.” Political Analysis, Vol.12, No. 3, pp. 277-295.
[32] Teresa M. Amabile, Regina Conti, Heather Coon, Jeffrey Lazenby and Michael Herron, 1996. “Assessing the Work Environment for Creativity,” The Academy of Management Journal, Vol. 39, No. 5, pp. 1154-1184.
[33] Wolfers and Zitzewitz, 2004. “Prediction Markets,” Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, Vol. 18, No. 2, pp. 107-126.
英文網際網路
[1] Gary Stix, 2008/02/04. “Super Tuesday: Markets Predict Outcome Better Than Polls,” Scientific American Magazine, .最後瀏覽日:2013/08/07
[2] Harold A. Linstone, and Murray Turoff, 2002. “The Delphi Method Techniques and Applications,” .最後瀏覽日:2013/09/05
[3] Hollywood Stock Exchange, .最後瀏覽日:2013/08/15
[4] IDEM: Idea Market, .最後瀏覽日:2013/08/15
[5] Jim Lavoie, 2010/04/08, “Nobody’s as Smart as Everybody—Unleashing Individual Brilliance and Aligning Collective Genius,” Management Innovation eXchange, .最後瀏覽日:2013/08/11
[6] John Howkins, “The Creative Economy: An Economy of Failure?” TEDxTalks, .最後瀏覽日:2013/08/20
[7] Trudi Lang, “An Overview of Four Futures Methodologies,” .最後瀏覽日:2013/08/20
[8] WIKIPEDIA, Efficient-market hypothesis .最後瀏覽日:2013/08/07
描述 碩士
國立政治大學
國家發展研究所
100261016
102
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G1002610161
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 童振源zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) 杜映磊zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) 杜映磊zh_TW
dc.date (日期) 2013en_US
dc.date.accessioned 10-Feb-2014 14:59:12 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 10-Feb-2014 14:59:12 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 10-Feb-2014 14:59:12 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G1002610161en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/63720-
dc.description (描述) 碩士zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國家發展研究所zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 100261016zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 102zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) 群眾智慧最大的優點在於:即使不是高層人員,也能夠很有貢獻。一群擁有不同問題處理能力的人,大家共同集思廣益,就能發揮出比聰明的人更優秀的表現,可見多元性比才智來得更重要。創意的開發和評鑑兩者是相輔相成的,一個創意要成功,除了本身是優良的提案之外,評鑑創意的過程也必須準確,讓好的想法更容易突顯、被看見且得到資助,創意市場即開闢了一個嶄新的途徑。
本研究主要目的在於建立一個結合創意開發和創意評鑑兩階段,可以互動交流的「創意市場」平台,讓參與者在匿名的平等討論環境下,自願性地投入個人想法、資訊,並有效將訊息加以彙整聚集。在創意市場中公開發布創意內容,企圖激發學習效果,以虛擬貨幣交易買賣,進行篩選及評鑑作業,評估創意之優劣。同時提供獎勵誘因,鼓勵更多元、新穎的想法,提升參與交易評鑑之意願和洞察能力,以優化評鑑結果。發揮集體智慧功用,幫助國家、公司企業等單位了解目前的趨勢動態,共同面對未來不確定性、複雜多變的情境,有效開發新商品、服務以及未來發展之方針。
本研究主要根據政大與國寶人壽之產學合作計畫,從旁觀察記錄並透過量化的方式,分析市場平台交易數據和問卷結果,發掘創意市場在新產品和策略開發上之成效表現。結果證實,提供獎勵誘因和匿名機制有助於提升參與者之意願,並激發學習效果。創意市場比公司既有決策產生數量更豐富、內容多元性的創新想法。同時,與常見的遴選方式網路投票做比較,在評鑑之鑑別力和認同度上,創意市場的表現較佳。無論在可行性、創新性、預期效益等方面,創意市場產生結果獲得參與者正面評價,主管級人士亦認同創意市場工具,並認為值得推薦給其他企業或產業。
zh_TW
dc.description.tableofcontents 第一章 緒論 1
第一節、 研究動機與研究問題 1
第二節、 研究方法 3
第三節、 研究架構 9
第二章 文獻檢閱 10
第一節、 傳統創意產生與評鑑方法及其限制 10
第二節、 預測市場理論 16
第三節、 創意預測市場 23
第四節、 創意市場之經驗研究 29
第三章 創意市場之開發及運作 33
第一節、 創意市場平台之開發 33
第二節、 創意市場運作情形 37
第四章 創意市場成效分析 46
第一節 受訪者基本資料 46
第二節 創意市場成果檢視 49
第三節 創意市場與公司既有決策之比較 65
第四節 創意市場與網路投票之比較 85
第五章 結論與建議 99
第一節 研究發現與貢獻 99
第二節 研究限制及建議 105
參考文獻 108
zh_TW
dc.format.extent 2211289 bytes-
dc.format.mimetype application/pdf-
dc.language.iso en_US-
dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G1002610161en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 創意市場zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 群眾智慧zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 創意開發zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 創意評鑑zh_TW
dc.title (題名) 創意市場之開發與運用:以「國寶人壽登峰造極計畫」為例zh_TW
dc.title (題名) The development and application of idea market: the case study of Global Life Insurance Idea Market Projecten_US
dc.type (資料類型) thesisen
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 中文專書
[1] 陳義彥,2001。《民意調查》。台北:五南。
[2] 陳義彥、黃紀、洪永泰、盛杏湲、游清鑫、鄭夙芬、陳陸輝、蔡佳泓合著,2009。《民意調查新論》。台北:五南。
[3] 童振源、池秉聰、戴中擎、葉家興、杜映磊,2013。《國寶人壽登峰造極創意市場計畫結案報告》。
中文譯著
[1] Alex F. Osborn著,師範譯,2004。《實用想像學》(Applied Imagination)。台北市:文藝生活書房。
[2] James Surowiecki著,楊玉齡譯,2005。《群眾的智慧:如何讓個人、 團隊、企業與社會變得更聰明》(The Wisdom of Crowd)。台北:遠流。
[3] Juanita Brown and David Isaacs著,高子梅譯,2007。《世界咖啡館》(The World Cafe: shaping our futures through conversations that matter)。台北市:臉譜出版社。
[4] Peter M. Senge著,郭進隆譯,1994。《第五項修煉:學習型組織的藝術與實務》(The Fifth Discipline―The Art and Practice of the Learning Organization)。台北市:天下文化。
[5] Peter Miller著,林俊宏譯,2010。《群的智慧─向螞蟻、蜜蜂、飛鳥學習組織運作絕技》(The Smart Swarm:How Understanding Flocks, Schools, and Colonies Can Make Us Better at Communicating, Decision Making, and Getting Things Done)。台北:天下文化。
[6] Richard J. Crisp and Rhiannon N. Turner著,李政賢譯,2009。《社會心理學》(Social Psychology)。台北市:五南。
[7] Wolfgang Donsbach and Michael W. Traugott著,國家教育研究院主譯,楊雅婷、梁書寧、楊濟鶴譯,2012。《民意與民調研究》。新北市:韋伯文化國際。
期刊論文
[1] 曾玠郡、王孫崇和李世炳,2008年6月。〈從選舉預測到經濟物理學實驗-談臺灣政治期貨交易中心之演進〉,《物理雙月刊》,30卷3期,頁265-268。
網際網路
[1] 未來事件交易所。< http://xfuture.org/>最後瀏覽日:2013/12/15。
[2] 林欣靜,2010。〈「未來事件交易所」成交未來〉,《光華雜誌》,頁46-56。最後瀏覽日:2013/09/15。
[3] 保險業公開資訊觀測站。最後瀏覽日:2013/12/13。
[4] 財團法人保險事業發展中心。最後瀏覽日:2013/12/13。
[5] 國寶人壽企業網站。最後瀏覽日:2013/12/14
[6] 譚瑾瑜,2013.ECFA第二階段降稅成果及ECFA後續談判的發展。最後瀏覽日:2013/12/15。
官方文件
[1] 行政院衛生署疾病管制局99 年度科技研究發展計畫,2010/12/20。〈以預測市場理論建構傳染病預測模式研究報告〉。
英文專書
[1] Philip E. Tetlock, 2006. Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know? Princeton: Princeton University Press.
英文期刊論文
[1] Arina Soukhoroukova, Martin Spann, and Bernd Skiera, 2007. “Creating and Evaluating New Product Ideas with Idea Markets.” Produktinnovation mit.
[2] Arina Soukhoroukova, Martin Spann, and Bernd Skiera, 2012. “Sourcing, Filtering, and Evaluating New Product Ideas: An Empirical Exploration of the Performance of Idea Markets,” Journal of Product Innovation Management, Vol. 29, No. 1, pp. 100–112.
[3] Bo Cowgill, Justin Wolfers, and Eric Zitzewitz, 2009. “Using Prediction Markets to Track Information Flows: Evidence from Google,” Auctions, Market Mechanisms and Their Applications, Vol. 14.
[4] Brain Spears, Christina LaComb, John Interrante, Janet Barnett and Deniz Senturk-Dogonaksoy, 2009. “Examining Trader Behavior in Idea Markets: An Implementation of GE`s Imagination Markets,” Journal of Prediction Market, Vol. 3, pp. 17-39.
[5] Charles F. Manski, 2006. “Interpreting The Prediction of Prediction Markets,” Economic Letters, Vol. 91, Issue 3, pp. 425-429.
[6] Chia-Chien Hsu, and Brian A. Sandford, 2007. “The Delphi Technique: Making Sense Of Consensus,” Practical Assessment, Research & Evaluation, Vol. 12, No. 10, pp.1.
[7] Christina Ann LaComb, Janet Arlie Barnett, and Qimei Pan, 2007. “The imagination market,” Information Systems Frontiers, Vol. 9, No. 2, pp.245-256.
[8] David M. Pennock, Steve Lawrence, C. Lee Giles, and Finn Arup Nielsen, 2001. “The power of play: Efficiency and forecast accuracy in web market games,” NEC Research Institute Technical Report.
[9] Efthimios Bothos, Dimitris Apostolou, and Gregoris Mentzas, 2009. “ IDEM:A Prediction Market for Idea Management,” Designing E-Business Systems. Markets, Services, and Networks, Vol. 22, pp. 1-13.
[10] Efthimios Bothos, Dimitris Apostolou, and Gregoris Mentzas, 2009. “Collective intelligence for idea management with Internet-based information aggregation market,” Internet Research, Vol. 19, No. 1, pp.26-41.
[11] Ely Dahan, Arina Soukhoroukova, and Martin Spann, 2010. “New Product Development 2.0: Preference Markets—How Scalable Securities Markets Identify Winning Product Concepts and Attributes.”Journal of Product Innovation Management, Vol. 27, No. 7, pp. 937–954.
[12] Eugene F. Fama, 1991. “Efficient Capital Markets:Ⅱ,” Journal of Finance, Vol. 66, pp.1575-1617.
[13] Harlan J. Strauss and L. Harmon Zeigler, 1975. “The Delphi Technique and Its Uses In Social Research,” Journal of Creative Behavior, pp.253-259.
[14] J.Scott Armstrong, 1980. “Seer-Sucker Theory:The Value of Expert in Forecasting,” Technology Review, pp. 16-24.
[15] Jay F. Nunamaker, Robert O. Briggs, Daniel D. Mittleman, Douglas R. Vogel, and Pierre A. Balthazard, 1996. "Lessons from a Dozen Years of Group Support Systems Research: A Discussion of Lab and Field Findings", Journal of Management Information Systems, Vol. 13, No. 3, pp. 163–207.
[16] Jillian M. Hender, Thomas L. Rodgers, Douglas L. Dean, and Jay F. Nunamaker, Jr., 2001. “Improving Group Creativity: Brainstorming Versus Non-brainstorming Techniques in a GSS Environment,” Proceedings of the 34th Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences, Vol.1.
[17] Jim Lavoie, 2009. “The Innovation Engine at Rite-Solutions: Lessons from the CEO,” Journal of Prediction Markets, Vol. 3, No. 1, pp. 1-11.
[18] Justin Wolfers and Eric Zitzewitz, 2006. “Interpreting Prediction Market Prices as Probabilities,” NBER Working Paper, No. 12200.
[19] Kay-Yut, Chen and Charles Plott, 2002. “Information Aggregation Mechanisms: Concept, Design and Implementation for a Sales Forecasting Problem.” Social Science Working Paper, No. 1131.
[20] Kesten C. Green, J. Scott Armstrong, and Andreas Graefe, 2007. “Methods to Elicit Forecasts from Groups: Delphi and Prediction Markets Compared,” Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, pp. 17-20.
[21] Marco Ottaviani, 2009. “The Design of Idea Markets: An Economist’s Perspective,” Journal of Prediction Markets, Vol. 3, No. 1, pp. 41-44.
[22] Marion Kristin Poetz and Martin Schreier, 2012. “The Value of Crowdsourcing: Can Users Really Compete with Professionals in Generating New Product Ideas?” Journal of Product Innovation Management, Vol. 29, No. 2, pp. 245-256.
[23] Michael Diehl and Wolfgang Strpebe, 1997. “Productivity Loss In Brainstorming Groups: Toward the Solution of a Riddle,” Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, Vol. 53, No. 3, pp. 497-509.
[24] Muammer Ozer, 2005. “Factors which influence decision making in new product evaluation,” European Journal of Operational Research, Vol.163, pp.784-801.
[25] Olivier Toubia, 2006. “Idea Generation, Creativity, and Incentives,” Marketing Science, Vol. 25, No. 5, pp.411-425.
[26] Philip M. Polgreen, Forrest D. Nelson, and George R. Neumann, 2007. “Use of Prediction Markets to Forecast Infectious Disease Activity,” Oxford Journals, pp.272-279.
[27] R. Brent Gallupe, Alan R. Dennis, William H. Cooper, Joseph S. Valacich, Lana M. Bastianutti, and Jay F. Nunamaker, Jr., 1992. “Electronic Brainstorming and Group Size,” The Academy of Management Journal, Vol. 35, No. 2, pp. 350-369.
[28] Robert Eisenberger, Frances Haskins and Paul Gambleton, 1999. “Promised Reward and Creativity: Effects of Prior Experience,” Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, Vol. 35, No. 3, pp. 308–325.
[29] Robin Hanson and Ryan Oprea, “A Manipulator Can Aid Prediction Market Accuracy.” Economica, Vol. 76, Issue 302, Apr. 2009, pp. 304-314.
[30] Rowe Gene and Wright George, 1999. “The Delphi technique as a forecasting tool: issues and analysis,” International Journal of Forecasting, Vol.15, No. 4, pp.353-375.
[31] Steven G. Kou and Michael E. Sobel, 2004. “Forecasting the Vote: A Theoretical Comparison of Election Markets and Public Opinion Polls.” Political Analysis, Vol.12, No. 3, pp. 277-295.
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[33] Wolfers and Zitzewitz, 2004. “Prediction Markets,” Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, Vol. 18, No. 2, pp. 107-126.
英文網際網路
[1] Gary Stix, 2008/02/04. “Super Tuesday: Markets Predict Outcome Better Than Polls,” Scientific American Magazine, .最後瀏覽日:2013/08/07
[2] Harold A. Linstone, and Murray Turoff, 2002. “The Delphi Method Techniques and Applications,” .最後瀏覽日:2013/09/05
[3] Hollywood Stock Exchange, .最後瀏覽日:2013/08/15
[4] IDEM: Idea Market, .最後瀏覽日:2013/08/15
[5] Jim Lavoie, 2010/04/08, “Nobody’s as Smart as Everybody—Unleashing Individual Brilliance and Aligning Collective Genius,” Management Innovation eXchange, .最後瀏覽日:2013/08/11
[6] John Howkins, “The Creative Economy: An Economy of Failure?” TEDxTalks, .最後瀏覽日:2013/08/20
[7] Trudi Lang, “An Overview of Four Futures Methodologies,” .最後瀏覽日:2013/08/20
[8] WIKIPEDIA, Efficient-market hypothesis .最後瀏覽日:2013/08/07
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