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題名 Diffusion Models of Mobile Telephony
作者 Wu, Feng-Shang;Chu, Wen-Lin
吳豐祥;朱文伶
貢獻者 科管所
關鍵詞 Mobile communications;Mobile telephony;Diffusion model;Forecasting
日期 2010-05
上傳時間 26-Feb-2014 17:34:18 (UTC+8)
摘要 Growth models are applicable to mobile telephony diffusion. Although cross-sectional performance comparisons of models are numerous, varying stages of the S-shaped diffusion curve have not been analyzed by longitudinal studies. This study determines whether the best model applies to an entire diffusion life span. Mobile telephone subscriber data for Taiwan during 1988–2007 are analyzed to compare the performance of three popular diffusion models and one well-known forecasting model—the Gompertz, Logistic, Bass, and time-series autoregressive moving average (ARMA) models, respectively. Empirical results indicate that the Gompertz model outperforms the other models before diffusion take-off, and the Logistic model is superior after inflection and over the aggregate range of the diffusion. Network externalities are the dynamics of the Logistic model and account for its excellence. This longitudinal study is the first to present empirical evidence indicating that the appropriate diffusion model for mobile telephony is stage-dependent, complementing the case dependency of the appropriate diffusion model demonstrated by cross-sectional studies.
關聯 Journal of Business Research, 63(5), 497-501
資料類型 article
DOI http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jbusres.2009.04.008
dc.contributor 科管所en_US
dc.creator (作者) Wu, Feng-Shang;Chu, Wen-Linen_US
dc.creator (作者) 吳豐祥;朱文伶zh_TW
dc.date (日期) 2010-05en_US
dc.date.accessioned 26-Feb-2014 17:34:18 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 26-Feb-2014 17:34:18 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 26-Feb-2014 17:34:18 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/64277-
dc.description.abstract (摘要) Growth models are applicable to mobile telephony diffusion. Although cross-sectional performance comparisons of models are numerous, varying stages of the S-shaped diffusion curve have not been analyzed by longitudinal studies. This study determines whether the best model applies to an entire diffusion life span. Mobile telephone subscriber data for Taiwan during 1988–2007 are analyzed to compare the performance of three popular diffusion models and one well-known forecasting model—the Gompertz, Logistic, Bass, and time-series autoregressive moving average (ARMA) models, respectively. Empirical results indicate that the Gompertz model outperforms the other models before diffusion take-off, and the Logistic model is superior after inflection and over the aggregate range of the diffusion. Network externalities are the dynamics of the Logistic model and account for its excellence. This longitudinal study is the first to present empirical evidence indicating that the appropriate diffusion model for mobile telephony is stage-dependent, complementing the case dependency of the appropriate diffusion model demonstrated by cross-sectional studies.en_US
dc.format.extent 366628 bytes-
dc.format.mimetype application/pdf-
dc.language.iso en_US-
dc.relation (關聯) Journal of Business Research, 63(5), 497-501en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Mobile communications;Mobile telephony;Diffusion model;Forecastingen_US
dc.title (題名) Diffusion Models of Mobile Telephonyen_US
dc.type (資料類型) articleen
dc.identifier.doi (DOI) 10.1016/j.jbusres.2009.04.008en_US
dc.doi.uri (DOI) http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jbusres.2009.04.008en_US