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題名 總統黨的形成與裂解：韓國民主化後進步政黨的分合
The Rise and Fall of Presidentialized Parties: Why Progressive Parties Split and Merged in South Korea after Democratization?作者 曲元寧
Chu, Yuan Ning貢獻者 黃長玲<br>楊婉瑩
Huang, Chang Ling<br>Yang, Wan Ying
曲元寧
Chu, Yuan Ning關鍵詞 韓國
政黨
選舉
總統黨
政黨重組
South Korea
Political Parties
Elections
Presidentialized Parties
Splits and Mergers of Parties日期 2013 上傳時間 1-四月-2014 11:22:38 (UTC+8) 摘要 韓國政黨自1980年代末期民主化以來，歷經了多次的政黨變動，包括更換黨名、合併他黨，甚至是甘願被他黨合併而解散，且就連執政黨也不斷發生類似的情形。在既有的各種解釋之中，部分學者認為，韓國執政黨的變動，與「總統黨」的現象相關。韓國政黨主要為總統個人服務，「總統黨」通常是在總統的主導之下而建立，總統建立總統黨的過程，導致執政黨不斷變動。 與既有研究不同，本研究具體化「總統黨」的概念。在韓國的政治制度之下，總統無法掌握民意、無法掌握國會時，在總統權力受限的情況下，執政黨較可能會發生組織上的變動；反之，若總統民調滿意度高、掌握國會程度高時，總統權力較大，執政黨因而較為穩定。依此，可以解釋為什麼韓國進步政黨與保守政黨執政期間，政黨變動的情形有所差異。透過大量的實證研究，本論文發現，進步政黨執政時，即金大中、盧武鉉任內，總統民調滿意度持續低迷，且同黨議員的國會席次，比保守政黨執政時來得更少，可能因而發生較劇烈的政黨變動。最後，本研究亦從保守政黨的情形，推估該理論的適用範圍，並採用李明博任內的政黨變動情形，作為比較。在李明博民調滿意度高、同黨國會席次過半時，執政黨維持穩定，但在民調滑落時，執政黨便發生變動，符合本研究的論證，推測韓國執政黨的變動，確實與總統個人的權力大小相關。
Ever since the country’s democratization in the late 1980s, political parties in South Korea have been repeatedly splitting and merging with one another. While ruling parties in general tend to be more stable under the presidential system, in South Korea, they are prone to dramatic organizational changes. Existing literature argues that regional cleavages, presidential leadership and electoral institutions have contributed to these party reorganizations. However, it fails to explain why progressive parties have been less stable than conservative parties when in government. This study argues that the rise and fall of presidential power can lead to splits and mergers in the ruling parties in South Korea. Specifically, when a president is facing a divided government and suffering from low public support, the ruling party is likely to be unstable. To support my claim, I begin with two case studies of the ruling party’s splitting and merging under Kim Dae-jung and Roh Moo-hyun’s progressive governments from 1998-2008. I also compare the situations of Kim and Roh’s parties with those of the conservative ruling party led by Lee Myung-bak from 2008-2012. I conclude that progressive parties have been less stable because their presidents have faced divided government more frequently and have gained less presidential approval. The organizational stability of a ruling party in South Korea is highly relevant with the president’s power in terms of popularity and legislative seats.參考文獻 一、中文文獻專書森山茂德，譯者吳明上，韓國現代政治（台北市：五南，2005）郑继永，韩国政党体系（北京：社会科学文献出版社，2008）施正鋒編，瞭解當代韓國民主政治（台北市：台灣國際研究學會，2011）專書篇章石忠山，「當代韓國政黨政治之發展與挑戰」，載於施正鋒編，瞭解當代韓國民主政治（台北市：台灣國際研究學會，2011），頁117-160郭秋慶，「韓國民主轉型的形成與延生的問題」，載於施正鋒編，瞭解當代韓國民主政治（台北市：台灣國際研究學會，2011），頁57-90黃長玲，「分裂社會下的體制發展與爭議：台灣與南韓民主化經驗的比較」，載於彭慧鸞編，蕃薯與泡菜：亞洲雙龍台韓經驗比較（台北市：財團法人亞太文化學術交流基金會，2008），頁41-64期刊論文林繼文，「政府體制、選舉制度與政黨體系：一個配套論的分析」，選舉研究，第13卷第2期（2006），頁01-35。吳重禮，「美國『分立性政府』與『一致性政府』體制運作之比較與評析」，政治科學論叢，第9期（1998），頁61-90。吳重禮，黃紀，張壹智，「台灣地區“分立政府”與“一致政府”之研究：以1986年至2001年地方府會關係為例」，人文及社會科學集刊，第15卷第1期（2003），頁145-184。蔡榮祥，陳宏銘，「選舉時程對政府組成型態的牽引力：半總統制經驗之探討」，東吳政治學報，第26卷第2期（2008），頁117-180。蔡榮祥，陳宏銘，「總統國會制的一致政府與憲政運作：以馬英九總統第一任任期為例」，東吳政治學報，第30卷第4期（2012），頁121-176。 二、英文文獻專書Campbell, James E., The Presidential Pulse of Congressional Elections (Lexington: University Press of Kentucky, 1997).Cox, G. W., Kernell, S., The Politics of Divided Government (Boulder, CO: Westview Press, 1991).Duverger M., Political Parties, Their Organization and Activity in the Modern State (Methuen: Wiley, 1954).Key, V. O., Politics, Parties and Pressure Groups (Binghamton, NY: Thomas Y. Crowell Company, 1964)Mayhew, D. R., Divided We Govern: Party Control, Lawmaking and Investigations, 1946-1990 (New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 1991). Oh, J. K., Korean Politics: the Quest for Democratization and Economic Development (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 1999)Samuels, D. J. & Shugart, M. S., Presidents, Parties, and Prime Ministers: How the Separation of Powers Affects Party Organization and Behavior (New York, NY: Cambridge University Press, 2010)Shugart, M. S. & Carey, J. M., Presidents and Assemblies: Constitutional Design and Electoral Dynamics (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1992)期刊論文Binder, Sarah A., “The Dynamics of Legislative Gridlock”, The American Political Science Review, Vol. 93, No. 3 (Sep., 1999), pp. 519-533Bowling, Cynthia J., Ferguson, Margaret R., “Divided Government, Interest Representation, and Policy Differences: Competing Explanations of Gridlock in the Fifty States”, The Journal of Politics, Vol. 63, No. 1 (Feb., 2001), pp. 182-206Campbell, J. E., “Explaining Presidential Losses in Midterm Congressional Elections”, The Journal of Politics, Vol.47, No.4 (1985), pp. 1140-1157.Cohen, Jeffrey E., Krassa, Michael A., Hamman, John A., “The Impact of Presidential Campaigning on Midterm US Senate Elections”, The American Political Science Review, Vol. 85, No. 1 (Mar., 1991), pp. 165-178Coleman, John J., “Unified Government, Divided Government, and Party Responsiveness”, The American Political Science Review, Vol. 93, No. 4 (Dec., 1999), pp. 821-835Edward III, G. C., Barrett, A., & Peake, J., “The Legislative Impact of Divided Government”, American Journal of Political Science, Vol. 41, No.2 (1997), pp. 545-563.Elman, Colin, “Explanatory Typologies in Qualitative Studies of International Politics”, International Organization, Vol. 59, No. 2 (Spring, 2005), pp. 293-326Jones, M. P., “Presidential Election Laws and Multipartism in Latin America”, Political Research Quarterly, Vol. 47, No. 1 (1994), pp. 41-57Kelly, Sean Q., “Divided We Govern? A Reassessment”, Polity, Vol. 25, No. 3 (Spring, 1993), pp. 475-484Kernell, S., “Presidential Popularity and Negative Voting: An Alternative Explanation of the Midterm Congressional Decline of the President`s Party”, The American Political Science Review, Vol. 71, No.1 (1977), pp. 44-66Mayhew, D. R., “Divided Party Control: Does It Make a Difference?” PS: Political Science and Politics, Vol.24, No.4 (1991), pp. 637-640.Park, Jin, “Political Change in South Korea: The Challenge of the Conservative Alliance”, Asian Survey, Vol. 30, No. 12 (Dec., 1990), pp. 1154-1168Park, K., “Party Mergers and Splits in New Democracies: The Case of South Korea (1987–2007)”, Government & Opposition, Vol.45, No.4 (2010), pp. 531-552.Piereson, J. E., “Presidential Popularity and Midterm Voting at Different Electoral Levels”, American Journal of Political Science, Vol. 19, No.4 (1975), pp. 683-694Saeki, Manabu, “Gridlock in the Government of the United States: Influence of Divided Government and Veto Players”, British Journal of Political Science, Vol.39, No.3 (2009), pp 587 - 607Samuels, D. J., “Presidentialized parties”, Comparative Political Studies, Vol. 35, No. 4 (2002), pp. 461-483.Shugart, M. S., “The electoral cycle and institutional sources of divided presidential government”, American Political Science Review, Vol. 89, No. 2 (1995), pp. 327-343.Sundquist, J. L., “Needed: A Political Theory for the New Era of Coalition Government in the United States”, Political Science Quarterly, Vol.103, No.4 (1988), pp. 613-635. Tufte, E. R., “Determinants of the outcomes of midterm congressional elections”, The American Political Science Review, Vol. 69, No.3 (1975), pp. 812-826.三、韓文文獻專書김태랑, 대한민국국회 60년사 (서울특별시：국회사무처, 2008)손호철, 현대 한국 정치: 이론, 역사, 현실, 1945-2011 (이매진, 2011)期刊論文강원택, “3당 합당과 한국 정당 정치”, 한국정당학회보, Vol. 11, No. 1 (2012), pp. 171-193. 곽진영, “한국 정당의 이합집산과 정당체계의 불안정성”, 한국정당학회보, Vol. 8, No. 1 (2009), pp. 115-146.박경미, “정당 이합집산의 조건: 열린우리당의 변화(2003-2007)”, 한국과국제정치(KWP), Vol. 24, No. 3 (2008), pp. 29-55.이정진, “재편성 개념으로 분석한 한국 정당체계의 변화”, 韓國政治外交史論叢, Vol. 28, No. 2 (2007), pp. 109-138.이준한, “한국의 선거주기와 대통령 소속정당의 선거이득”, 한국정당학회보, Vol. 7, No. 2 (2008), pp. 137-157정진민, “생산적 국회운영을 위한 대통령-국회 관계와 정당”, 한국정당학회보, Vol. 7, No. 1 (2008), pp. 77-102.官方資料중앙선거관리위원회a, 大韓民國政黨史 第四輯 (서울: 中央選擧管理委員會, 2009)중앙선거관리위원회b, 大韓民國政黨史 第五輯 (서울: 中央選擧管理委員會, 2009)중앙선거관리위원회c, 大韓民國選舉史 第四輯 (서울: 中央選擧管理委員會, 2009)중앙선거관리위원회d, 大韓民國選舉史 第五輯 (서울: 中央選擧管理委員會, 2009)중앙선거관리위원회e, 大韓民國選舉史 第六輯 (서울: 中央選擧管理委員會, 2009)중앙선거관리위원회, 정당의 활동개황 및 회계보고 2004년도 (서울: 중앙선거관리위원회, 2005) , 정당의 활동개황 및 회계보고 2005년도 (서울: 중앙선거관리위원회, 2006) , 정당의 활동개황 및 회계보고 2006년도 (서울: 중앙선거관리위원회, 2007) , 정당의 활동개황 및 회계보고 2007년도 (서울: 중앙선거관리위원회, 2008)중앙선거관리위원회f, 정당의 활동개황 및 회계보고 2008년도 (서울: 중앙선거관리위원회, 2009) , 정당의 활동개황 및 회계보고 2009년도 (서울: 중앙선거관리위원회, 2010) , 정당의 활동개황 및 회계보고 2010년도 (서울: 중앙선거관리위원회, 2011) , 정당의 활동개황 및 회계보고. 2011년도 (서울: 중앙선거관리위원회, 2012) , 정당의 활동개황 및 회계보고. 2012년도 (서울: 중앙선거관리위원회, 2013)網路資料與新聞報導大韓民國國會六十年史 대한민국국회60년사(김태랑)，http://www.assembly.go.kr/renew10/asm/ifn/file_down.jsp?M_idx=1_02&SAVEFILENAME=assembly60.pdf&FILENAME=%B4%EB%C7%D1%B9%CE%B1%B9%B1%B9%C8%B8%2060%B3%E2%BB%E7.pdf朝鮮日報檔案庫 조선일보 아카이브，http://srchdb1.chosun.com/pdf/i_archive/韓國中央選舉委員會 選舉統計系統 중앙선거관리위원회 선거통계시스템， http://info.nec.go.kr/韓國法律知識資訊系統 법률지식정보시스템，http://likms.assembly.go.kr/law/jsp/law/Main.jsp韓國國會法 국회법，http://likms.assembly.go.kr/law/jsp/law/Law.jsp?WORK_TYPE=LAW_BON&SRCH_IN_RESULT=false&LAW_SRCH_TYPE=LAW_NM&SUB_NM=%B1%B9%C8%B8%B9%FD&BEF_SUB_NM=%B1%B9%C8%B8%B9%FD&LAW_CHECK=true&ORD_CHECK=true®L_CHECK=true&srchinresult=false&lawsrchtype=LAW_NM&subnm=%B1%B9%C8%B8%B9%FD&befsubnm=%B1%B9%C8%B8%B9%FD&lawchk=true&ordchk=true®lchk=true&LAW_ID=A1276&PROM_NO=12108&PROM_DT=20130813&韓國國會資訊系統 국회정보시스템， http://www.assembly.go.kr/renew10/info/inf/infosystem_list.jsp韓國國會議案資訊系統 국회의안정보시스템，http://likms.assembly.go.kr/bill/jsp/main.jsp韓國輿論振興基金會（新聞資料庫） 한국언론진흥재단，http://www.kinds.or.kr/ 描述 碩士
國立政治大學
外交研究所
100253006
102資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0100253006 資料類型 thesis dc.contributor.advisor 黃長玲<br>楊婉瑩 zh_TW dc.contributor.advisor Huang, Chang Ling<br>Yang, Wan Ying en_US dc.contributor.author (作者) 曲元寧 zh_TW dc.contributor.author (作者) Chu, Yuan Ning en_US dc.creator (作者) 曲元寧 zh_TW dc.creator (作者) Chu, Yuan Ning en_US dc.date (日期) 2013 en_US dc.date.accessioned 1-四月-2014 11:22:38 (UTC+8) - dc.date.available 1-四月-2014 11:22:38 (UTC+8) - dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 1-四月-2014 11:22:38 (UTC+8) - dc.identifier (其他 識別碼) G0100253006 en_US dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/65113 - dc.description (描述) 碩士 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 外交研究所 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 100253006 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 102 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) 韓國政黨自1980年代末期民主化以來，歷經了多次的政黨變動，包括更換黨名、合併他黨，甚至是甘願被他黨合併而解散，且就連執政黨也不斷發生類似的情形。在既有的各種解釋之中，部分學者認為，韓國執政黨的變動，與「總統黨」的現象相關。韓國政黨主要為總統個人服務，「總統黨」通常是在總統的主導之下而建立，總統建立總統黨的過程，導致執政黨不斷變動。 與既有研究不同，本研究具體化「總統黨」的概念。在韓國的政治制度之下，總統無法掌握民意、無法掌握國會時，在總統權力受限的情況下，執政黨較可能會發生組織上的變動；反之，若總統民調滿意度高、掌握國會程度高時，總統權力較大，執政黨因而較為穩定。依此，可以解釋為什麼韓國進步政黨與保守政黨執政期間，政黨變動的情形有所差異。透過大量的實證研究，本論文發現，進步政黨執政時，即金大中、盧武鉉任內，總統民調滿意度持續低迷，且同黨議員的國會席次，比保守政黨執政時來得更少，可能因而發生較劇烈的政黨變動。最後，本研究亦從保守政黨的情形，推估該理論的適用範圍，並採用李明博任內的政黨變動情形，作為比較。在李明博民調滿意度高、同黨國會席次過半時，執政黨維持穩定，但在民調滑落時，執政黨便發生變動，符合本研究的論證，推測韓國執政黨的變動，確實與總統個人的權力大小相關。 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) Ever since the country’s democratization in the late 1980s, political parties in South Korea have been repeatedly splitting and merging with one another. While ruling parties in general tend to be more stable under the presidential system, in South Korea, they are prone to dramatic organizational changes. Existing literature argues that regional cleavages, presidential leadership and electoral institutions have contributed to these party reorganizations. However, it fails to explain why progressive parties have been less stable than conservative parties when in government. This study argues that the rise and fall of presidential power can lead to splits and mergers in the ruling parties in South Korea. Specifically, when a president is facing a divided government and suffering from low public support, the ruling party is likely to be unstable. To support my claim, I begin with two case studies of the ruling party’s splitting and merging under Kim Dae-jung and Roh Moo-hyun’s progressive governments from 1998-2008. I also compare the situations of Kim and Roh’s parties with those of the conservative ruling party led by Lee Myung-bak from 2008-2012. I conclude that progressive parties have been less stable because their presidents have faced divided government more frequently and have gained less presidential approval. The organizational stability of a ruling party in South Korea is highly relevant with the president’s power in terms of popularity and legislative seats. en_US dc.description.tableofcontents 第一章、 韓國總統黨與政黨變動 1第一節 研究背景與文獻回顧 1第二節 研究設計 8第三節 研究方法、限制與架構 11第二章、 韓國歷屆執政黨變動的類型 17第一節 不同處境下的執政經驗 17第二節 韓國執政黨變動的類型 23第三章、 金大中：從成立新黨到跛腳總統 26第一節 就任後的執政困境到挖角策略 28第二節 成立新千年民主黨到跛腳總統 32第三節 小結 39第四章、 盧武鉉：從率眾退黨到跛腳總統 43第一節 從朝野對峙、派系鬥爭到開放的我們黨成立 44第二節 執政黨的裂解與跛腳總統 51第三節 小結 55第五章、 比較進步政黨與保守政黨 60第一節 進步政黨為何較容易變動？ 61第二節 保守政黨的情形：大國家黨 65第六章、 結論 69第一節 韓國政黨變動的制度性因素 69第二節 未來研究展望 71參考文獻 74附錄 79 zh_TW dc.format.extent 2421685 bytes - dc.format.mimetype application/pdf - dc.language.iso en_US - dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0100253006 en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) 韓國 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 政黨 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 選舉 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 總統黨 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 政黨重組 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) South Korea en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Political Parties en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Elections en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Presidentialized Parties en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Splits and Mergers of Parties en_US dc.title (題名) 總統黨的形成與裂解：韓國民主化後進步政黨的分合 zh_TW dc.title (題名) The Rise and Fall of Presidentialized Parties: Why Progressive Parties Split and Merged in South Korea after Democratization? en_US dc.type (資料類型) thesis en dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 一、中文文獻專書森山茂德，譯者吳明上，韓國現代政治（台北市：五南，2005）郑继永，韩国政党体系（北京：社会科学文献出版社，2008）施正鋒編，瞭解當代韓國民主政治（台北市：台灣國際研究學會，2011）專書篇章石忠山，「當代韓國政黨政治之發展與挑戰」，載於施正鋒編，瞭解當代韓國民主政治（台北市：台灣國際研究學會，2011），頁117-160郭秋慶，「韓國民主轉型的形成與延生的問題」，載於施正鋒編，瞭解當代韓國民主政治（台北市：台灣國際研究學會，2011），頁57-90黃長玲，「分裂社會下的體制發展與爭議：台灣與南韓民主化經驗的比較」，載於彭慧鸞編，蕃薯與泡菜：亞洲雙龍台韓經驗比較（台北市：財團法人亞太文化學術交流基金會，2008），頁41-64期刊論文林繼文，「政府體制、選舉制度與政黨體系：一個配套論的分析」，選舉研究，第13卷第2期（2006），頁01-35。吳重禮，「美國『分立性政府』與『一致性政府』體制運作之比較與評析」，政治科學論叢，第9期（1998），頁61-90。吳重禮，黃紀，張壹智，「台灣地區“分立政府”與“一致政府”之研究：以1986年至2001年地方府會關係為例」，人文及社會科學集刊，第15卷第1期（2003），頁145-184。蔡榮祥，陳宏銘，「選舉時程對政府組成型態的牽引力：半總統制經驗之探討」，東吳政治學報，第26卷第2期（2008），頁117-180。蔡榮祥，陳宏銘，「總統國會制的一致政府與憲政運作：以馬英九總統第一任任期為例」，東吳政治學報，第30卷第4期（2012），頁121-176。 二、英文文獻專書Campbell, James E., The Presidential Pulse of Congressional Elections (Lexington: University Press of Kentucky, 1997).Cox, G. 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