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題名 法人說明會資訊內容與分析師盈餘預測
Conference Calls and Financial Analysts` Earnings Forecasts作者 許佩琪 貢獻者 詹凌菁
許佩琪關鍵詞 法人說明會
分析師盈餘預測
分析師樂觀偏誤
券商國籍日期 2013 上傳時間 1-Jul-2014 12:04:41 (UTC+8) 摘要 法人說明會為近年來企業最常使用的自願性揭露方式之一，已逐漸成為企業管理當局與投資人溝通的重要管道，然而法人說明會之參加人員通常僅限於法人股東與財務分析師，因此財務分析師在企業管理當局與投資人之間扮演了一個重要的資訊傳遞角色。本研究以台灣高科技產業上市（櫃）公司為研究對象，探討法人說明會資訊揭露之豐富度，對分析師盈餘預測之樂觀程度、預測準確度以及預測離散性之影響，以及不同國籍券商獲取法人說明會資訊對其預測之影響。研究結果發現，分析師在資訊豐富性高的法人說明會後所做的盈餘預測會偏向樂觀預測，亦容易出現樂觀偏誤的現象，且資訊越豐富，分析師盈餘預測之離散性越低。若進一步分析券商國籍對盈餘預測之影響，可以發現本國券商在資訊豐富性高的法人說明會後所做的盈餘預測會偏向樂觀預測，外國券商則無此現象，表示相較於外國券商，本國券商獲取法人說明會資訊對其盈餘預測之影響較大。
Nowadays,conference calls are one of the most often used voluntary disclosures by firms, and have become an important way of communication between management and investors.However,participants of conference calls are often institutional shareholders and financial analysts.As a result,financial analysts play an important role as an information communicator between management and investors.Based on a sample of publicly listed firms in Taiwan,this study explores whether the extent to which the richness of the content of conference calls affect the optimism,bias and dispersion of financial analysts` earnings forecasts,and whether the nationality of brokers causes different effects when they acquire the information of conference calls.We find that analysts` earnings forecasts become more optimistic and biased if conference calls contain richer information,and the dispersion of forecasts also becomes lower.Furthermore,domestic brokers` forecasts are more optimistic after conference calls which contained rich information,while there is no such phenomenon for foreign brokers.This indicates that conference calls have a greater impact on domestic than foreign brokers in making earnings forecasts.參考文獻 一、中文文獻王品文，2003，法人說明會及創新活動關聯性之研究，國立中正大學會計學系碩士論文。王韶濱與許明曄，2011，資訊透明度與財務分析師預測行為，當代會計，第12卷第2期：115-148池祥萱、陳仁傑、李婉真與蘇紀維，2008，證券商盈餘預測準確度與股票推薦之決定因素—本國券商與外資券商之比較，企業管理學報，，77期：117-143李建然，2000，法人說明會與會計性資訊不對稱關係之研究，國立中正大學會計與資訊科技學系碩士論文。吳郁萱，2005，公司資訊透明度、分析師跟隨與公司績效之關聯性，國立政治大學會計學系碩士論文。金成隆、林美鳳與梁嘉紋，2008，公司治理結構和法人說明會之關聯性研究，管理學報，第25卷第2期：221-243。金成隆、紀信義與林裕凱，2005，強制性財務預測與法人說明會之關聯性研究，管理學報，第22卷第5期：629-651。林珮華，2013，法人說明會資訊內涵及之經濟後果—以高科技產業為對象，國立政治大學會計學系碩士論文。陳仁傑，2005，證券商特性與公司特性對股票推薦報告之影響，國立東華大學企業管理學系碩士論文。陳怡珮，2005，分析師盈餘預測偏誤之研究，國立彰化師範大學商業教育學系碩士論文。陳彥綺，2009，法人說明會、自願性資訊揭露與資訊不對稱之關聯，私立中原大學會計學系碩士論文。 陳瑞斌、劉立倫、翁慈青，2006，公司治理與分析師預測誤差／離散性關係之研究，台灣金融財務季刊，第7卷，第3期：53-93。許明曄，2004，公司治理與財務分析師預測行為之相關性研究，國立中興大學會計系碩士論文。曾莉雅，2012，台灣綜合證券商成本特性，國立政治大學行政管理碩士學程碩士論文。經濟日報，2002.07.24，台積電促以法說會取代財測－法人：高風險產業題財測反將誤導投資人甚至淪為炒作股票工具（22版）。賴柏錚，2003，不同型態法人說明會資訊內涵之差異及法人說明會之資訊公平性研究，國立台北大學會計學系碩士論文。蔡幸儒，2001，法人說明會資訊內涵及影響管理當局召開行為動機之研究，國立台北大學會計學系碩士論文。戴文琦，2007，法人說明會資訊內涵之探討，長庚大學企業管理學系碩士論文。顏信輝、丁緯，2003，我國分析師盈餘預測偏誤類型之探討：過度樂觀、過度反應或反應不足？2003年行為財務學暨與財務學研討會論文集。蘇正輝，2004，法人說明會對分析師預測之影響，國立中正大學會計學系碩士論文。二、英文文獻Agrawal, A., and M. A. Chen. 2005. Analyst conflicts and research quality. Working paper, University of Alabama and University of Maryland.Bacmann, J. F., andG, Bolliger.2001. Who are the best? Local versus foreign analysts on the Latin American stock markets. Working paper, University of Neuchatel and FAME.Bae, K. H., R. M. Stulz, and H. Tan. 2008. Do local analysts know more? A cross-country study of the performance of local analysts and foreign analysts. Journal of Financial Economics 88(June) : 581-606.Barron, O., D. Byard, and O. Kim. 2002. Changes in analysts’ information around earnings announcements. The Accounting Review 77(4): 821-846.Barron, O. E., D. Byard, C. Kile, and E. J. Riedl. 2002. High-technology intangibles and analysts’ forecasts. Journal of Accounting Research 40: 289-312.Barth, M. E., and R. Kasznik. 1999. Share repurchase and intangible assets. Journal of Accounting and Economics 28: 211-241.Bowen, R. M., A. K. Davis, and D. A. Matsumoto. 2002. Do conference calls affect analysts’ forecasts.The Accounting Review 77(April ): 285-316.Brown, S., S. Hillegeist, and K. Lo. 2004. Conference calls and information asymmetry. Journal of Accounting and Economics 47: 208-225.Bushee, B. J., D. A. Matsumoto, and G. S. Miller. 2003. Open vs. closed conference call : The determinants and effects of broadening access to disclosure. Journal of Economics (February): 149-180.Carolina, S., and S. Frédéric. 2010. The Value of Analysts` Recommendations and the Organization of Financial Research.Review of Finance(August):1-44.Chin, C. L., P. Lee, P. W. Wang, and G. Kleinman. 2007. Does innovation matter to conference calls? IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management 54 (4): 1-18.Das, S., C. B. Levine, and K. Sivaramakrishnan. 1998. Earnings predictability and bias in analysts’ earnings forecasts. The Accounting Review 73(April):277-294.Diamond, D. W., and R. E. Verrecchia. 1991. Disclosure, liquidity and the cost of capital. The Journal of Finance 46(4): 1325-1360.Dvorák, T. 2005. Do domestic investors have an information advantage? Evidence from Indonesia. Journal of Finance(60): 817-839.Frankel.R.. M. Johnson, and D. Skinner. 1999. An empirical examination of conference calls as a voluntary disclosure medium.Journal of accounting Research 37(1):133-150. Fan, J. P. H., and T.J. Wong. 2002. Corporate ownership structure and the informativeness of accounting earnings in East Asian. Journal of accounting and Economics 33: 401-425.Gu, F., and J.Li.2003. Disclosure of innovation activities by high-technology firms.Asia-Pacific Journal of Accounting and Economics 10 (2): 143-172Healy, P., and K. Palepu. 2001. Information asymmetry,corporate disclosure, and the capital markets: A review of the empirical disclosure literature. Journal of accounting and Economics 31: 405-440.Herrmann, D. R., O. K. Hope, and W. B. Thomas. 2008. International diversification and forecast optimism: The effects of Reg FD. Accounting Horizons 22 (2): 179-197.Hong, H., and J. D. Kubik.2003.Analyzing the analysts: Career concerns and biased earnings forecasts.Journal of Finance 58: 313-351.Hope, O. K. 2003. Accounting policy disclosures and analysts’ forecasts. Contemporary Accounting 20: 295-321.Jackson, A. R. 2005. Trade generation, reputation and sell-side analysts.Journal of Finance 60: 673-717.Kimbrough, M. D. 2005. The effect of conference calls on analyst and market underreaction to earnings announcements.The Accounting Review80 (1): 189-219.Lang, M. and R. Lundholm. 1996. Corporate disclosure policy and analyst behavior. The Accounting Review (71): 467-492.Lang, M. H., K. V. Lins, and D. P. Miller. 2004. Concentrated control, analyst following, and valuation: Do analysts matter most when investors are protected least? Journal of Accounting Research 42 (June): 589-623.Marquardt, C. A., C. I. Wiedman, and M. Welker. 1998. Voluntary disclosure, information asymmetry, and insider selling through secondary equity offerings. Contemporary Accounting Research 15: 505-537Matsumoto, D. A. 2002. Management’s incentives to avoid negative earnings surprise. The Accounting Review 77(July): 483-514.Matsumoto, D., M. Pronk, and E. Roelofsen. 2011. What makes conference calls useful? The information content of manager’ presentations and analysts’ discussion sessions.The Accounting Review86 (4): 1383-1414.Mikhail, M. B., B. R. Walther, and R. H. Willis. 2003 The effect of experience on security analyst underreaction. Journal of Accounting and Economics 35:101-116.Richardson S. A., S. H. Teoh, and P. D. Wysocki, 2004. The walk-down to beatable analyst forecasts: The role of equity issuance and insider trading incentives. Contemporary Accounting Research 21: 885-924.Salva,C., and F. Sonney, 2010.The Value of Analysts’ Recommendations andthe Organization ofFinancial Research.Review of Finance15(2):397-440.Sedor, L. M. 2002. An explanation for unintentional optimism in Analysts` earnings forecasts.The Accounting Review 77(4):731-753.Sunder, S. 2002. Investor access to conference call disclosure: Impact of regulation fair disclosure on information asymmetry. Working paper, Northewestern University.Tasker, S. 1998. Bridging the information gap: Quarterly conference calls as a medium for voluntary disclosure.Review of Accounting Studies: 137-167.Trueman, B. 1986. Why do managers voluntarily release earnings forecasts.Journal of accounting and Economics 8: 53-71.Zhang, X. frank, 2006.Information uncertainty and analyst forecast behavior. Contemporary Accounting Research 23(2):565-590 描述 碩士
國立政治大學
會計研究所
101353015
102資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0101353015 資料類型 thesis dc.contributor.advisor 詹凌菁 zh_TW dc.contributor.author (Authors) 許佩琪 zh_TW dc.creator (作者) 許佩琪 zh_TW dc.date (日期) 2013 en_US dc.date.accessioned 1-Jul-2014 12:04:41 (UTC+8) - dc.date.available 1-Jul-2014 12:04:41 (UTC+8) - dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 1-Jul-2014 12:04:41 (UTC+8) - dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0101353015 en_US dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/67082 - dc.description (描述) 碩士 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 會計研究所 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 101353015 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 102 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) 法人說明會為近年來企業最常使用的自願性揭露方式之一，已逐漸成為企業管理當局與投資人溝通的重要管道，然而法人說明會之參加人員通常僅限於法人股東與財務分析師，因此財務分析師在企業管理當局與投資人之間扮演了一個重要的資訊傳遞角色。本研究以台灣高科技產業上市（櫃）公司為研究對象，探討法人說明會資訊揭露之豐富度，對分析師盈餘預測之樂觀程度、預測準確度以及預測離散性之影響，以及不同國籍券商獲取法人說明會資訊對其預測之影響。研究結果發現，分析師在資訊豐富性高的法人說明會後所做的盈餘預測會偏向樂觀預測，亦容易出現樂觀偏誤的現象，且資訊越豐富，分析師盈餘預測之離散性越低。若進一步分析券商國籍對盈餘預測之影響，可以發現本國券商在資訊豐富性高的法人說明會後所做的盈餘預測會偏向樂觀預測，外國券商則無此現象，表示相較於外國券商，本國券商獲取法人說明會資訊對其盈餘預測之影響較大。 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) Nowadays,conference calls are one of the most often used voluntary disclosures by firms, and have become an important way of communication between management and investors.However,participants of conference calls are often institutional shareholders and financial analysts.As a result,financial analysts play an important role as an information communicator between management and investors.Based on a sample of publicly listed firms in Taiwan,this study explores whether the extent to which the richness of the content of conference calls affect the optimism,bias and dispersion of financial analysts` earnings forecasts,and whether the nationality of brokers causes different effects when they acquire the information of conference calls.We find that analysts` earnings forecasts become more optimistic and biased if conference calls contain richer information,and the dispersion of forecasts also becomes lower.Furthermore,domestic brokers` forecasts are more optimistic after conference calls which contained rich information,while there is no such phenomenon for foreign brokers.This indicates that conference calls have a greater impact on domestic than foreign brokers in making earnings forecasts. en_US dc.description.tableofcontents 表目錄...........................................................................................................................II第一章 緒論 1第一節 研究動機與目的 1第二節 論文架構 5第二章 文獻探討 6第一節 自願性預測與法人說明會 6第二節 分析師預測及法人說明會與分析師預測之關聯 10第三節 台灣證券商概況 14第三章 研究設計 17第一節 研究假說 17第二節 樣本選取與資料來源 21第三節 研究變數與實證模型 28一、應變數 28二、自變數 29三、其他控制變數 32第四節 實證模型與研究方法 34一、實證模型 34二、研究方法 36第四章 實證結果與分析 37第一節 敘述性統計分析 37第二節 相關係數分析 43第三節 廻歸結果分析 47一、法人說明會資訊內涵整體豐富度與分析師預測之關聯性 47二、不同國籍券商獲取法人說明會資訊對其預測之影響 53第四節 額外測試 58第五章 研究結論與建議 71第一節 研究結論 71第二節 研究建議與限制 74參考文獻 75 zh_TW dc.language.iso en_US - dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0101353015 en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) 法人說明會 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 分析師盈餘預測 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 分析師樂觀偏誤 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 券商國籍 zh_TW dc.title (題名) 法人說明會資訊內容與分析師盈餘預測 zh_TW dc.title (題名) Conference Calls and Financial Analysts` Earnings Forecasts en_US dc.type (資料類型) thesis en dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 一、中文文獻王品文，2003，法人說明會及創新活動關聯性之研究，國立中正大學會計學系碩士論文。王韶濱與許明曄，2011，資訊透明度與財務分析師預測行為，當代會計，第12卷第2期：115-148池祥萱、陳仁傑、李婉真與蘇紀維，2008，證券商盈餘預測準確度與股票推薦之決定因素—本國券商與外資券商之比較，企業管理學報，，77期：117-143李建然，2000，法人說明會與會計性資訊不對稱關係之研究，國立中正大學會計與資訊科技學系碩士論文。吳郁萱，2005，公司資訊透明度、分析師跟隨與公司績效之關聯性，國立政治大學會計學系碩士論文。金成隆、林美鳳與梁嘉紋，2008，公司治理結構和法人說明會之關聯性研究，管理學報，第25卷第2期：221-243。金成隆、紀信義與林裕凱，2005，強制性財務預測與法人說明會之關聯性研究，管理學報，第22卷第5期：629-651。林珮華，2013，法人說明會資訊內涵及之經濟後果—以高科技產業為對象，國立政治大學會計學系碩士論文。陳仁傑，2005，證券商特性與公司特性對股票推薦報告之影響，國立東華大學企業管理學系碩士論文。陳怡珮，2005，分析師盈餘預測偏誤之研究，國立彰化師範大學商業教育學系碩士論文。陳彥綺，2009，法人說明會、自願性資訊揭露與資訊不對稱之關聯，私立中原大學會計學系碩士論文。 陳瑞斌、劉立倫、翁慈青，2006，公司治理與分析師預測誤差／離散性關係之研究，台灣金融財務季刊，第7卷，第3期：53-93。許明曄，2004，公司治理與財務分析師預測行為之相關性研究，國立中興大學會計系碩士論文。曾莉雅，2012，台灣綜合證券商成本特性，國立政治大學行政管理碩士學程碩士論文。經濟日報，2002.07.24，台積電促以法說會取代財測－法人：高風險產業題財測反將誤導投資人甚至淪為炒作股票工具（22版）。賴柏錚，2003，不同型態法人說明會資訊內涵之差異及法人說明會之資訊公平性研究，國立台北大學會計學系碩士論文。蔡幸儒，2001，法人說明會資訊內涵及影響管理當局召開行為動機之研究，國立台北大學會計學系碩士論文。戴文琦，2007，法人說明會資訊內涵之探討，長庚大學企業管理學系碩士論文。顏信輝、丁緯，2003，我國分析師盈餘預測偏誤類型之探討：過度樂觀、過度反應或反應不足？2003年行為財務學暨與財務學研討會論文集。蘇正輝，2004，法人說明會對分析師預測之影響，國立中正大學會計學系碩士論文。二、英文文獻Agrawal, A., and M. 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