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題名 探討貨幣價值之合理性-以人民幣為例
The Reasonable Value of Currencies - Take China RMB as Example作者 陳春翰 貢獻者 李桐豪
陳春翰關鍵詞 人民幣
匯率
人民幣政策
匯率政策
RMB
exchange rate
China currency policy
currency policy日期 2013 上傳時間 25-Aug-2014 15:17:09 (UTC+8) 摘要 自布列敦森林協議崩潰以來，世界各個主要工業國家紛紛改採浮動匯率制度。從此全球開始進入了貨幣戰爭的時段，確實，一國匯率貶值將有利於出口產業，包含長期處於熊市的美元與近期來持續貶值的日圓皆是，且透過匯率貶值，亦可改善國際貿易長期呈現赤字的情況。但匯率是雙向的，一國貨幣貶值，另一國貨幣必然相對升值。中國便是最好的例子，隨著經濟的崛起，中國迅速的累積了大量貿易盈餘與外匯存底，並在之後的金融風暴中，為了維護中國經濟不受衝擊，中國政府將人民幣兌美元的匯兌水平壓低至8.28人民幣兌1美元。此時，各國包含歐、美與日本等工業大國開始抨擊中國政府刻意操作匯率，並持續對中國施壓要求開放匯率的自由化。因此，本文最主要的目的是研究究竟人民幣匯率是否如外界所言的被大幅低估，被低估的程度為多少，並希望透過本篇論文來看到人民幣未來前景的展望。 結果顯示，儘管人民幣過去確實遭到大幅低估，幅度約在30%~65%之間不等。但隨著中國政府對人民幣匯率政策的改革與開放，人民幣被低估的情況確實持續的改善，根據本篇研究，如今人民幣僅受到些微低估，與國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)2013年5月份所發佈的年度評估報告所顯示的一致，突顯出美國政府與國會議員實在是沒有任何理由在人民幣匯率上持續大做文章。人民幣未來的方向應朝著擴大國際化與自由匯兌的方向前進，在不久的將來，人民幣或將成為全球第3大的國際貨幣。
From the collapse of Bretton Woods Agreements until now, every country changed their currency policy from fix rate to floating rate. From then on, the world began the war of currency. Indeed, when a country’s currency depreciates, it will have some positive effect on export industries and can also improve the long term trade deficit such as US and Japan. But when one currency depreciate, there must be a currency that appreciate. For example, China. Thanks to the quickly growth of economy, China gained a lot of trade surplus and accumulated huge foreign exchange reserve in a short time. And during the financial crisis, China government fixed the exchange rate at 8.28 RMB to 1 US dollar in order to protect their economy. At that time, many country including Europe, USA and Japan, criticized that China government attempt to control the exchange rate and they continually put pressure on China government asking China government to give up the control of exchange rate. As a result, this paper focus on the exchange rate of China RMB in order to find out whether the RMB is really been undervalued and how much the RMB has been undervalued. And we hope that we can look into the future of the China RMB.According to the research, we find out that although RMB had really been overvalued in the past. The situation has improved after the revolution and become more open of China government. Our result shows that recently the China RMB is just been slightly undervalued in accordance with the report published by IMF in 2013/05. Those report shows that there is no reason for the US to make any criticize on the exchange rate of China RMB. We think that what China government should do is to make RMB more internationalized and free of exchange. We believe that RMB may become one of the biggest currencies in the future.參考文獻 一、中文部份1. 齊建國、彭緒（2004），「人民幣升值及其對中國經濟影響的分析」，《人民幣匯率：經濟與戰略分析》，遠景基金會出版。2. 張德仁（2000），「人民幣實質匯率之研究」，未出版碩士論文，國立政治大學行政管理碩士學程。 3. 張曉朴（2000），《人民幣均衡匯率研究》，中國金融出版社。4. 余世芳（2000），「總體經濟因數對人民幣匯率的長期均衡關係之研究」，未出版碩士論文，中原大學企業管理學研究所。5. 楊道元（2002），「人民幣實質有效匯率的均衡與失調分析」，未出版碩士論文，銘傳大學經濟學研究所。6. 官民儀（2007），「人民幣均衡實質匯率實證分析：1982年至2005年」，未出版碩士論文，國立政治大學國際經營與貿易研究所。7. 侯哲、陳麗英（2011），「基於Beer模型的人民幣匯率失調研究」，《武漢理工大學學報》，第30卷第2期，62-69。二、英文部份1. Chou, W.L. and Y. C. Shin (1998), “The Equilibrium Exchange Rate of the Chinese Renminbi,” Journal of Comparative Economics, Vol. 26, 165-174.2. Frankel (2004), “On the Renminbi: The Choice between Adjustment under A Fixed Exchange Rate and Adjustment under a Flexible Rate,” NBER Working Paper, No.11247.3. Coudert and Couharde (2005), “Real Equilibrium Exchange Rate in China,” Working Paper of CEPII, No.2005-01.4. Lee et al. (2005), “Equilibrium Real Exchange Rates: Estimates for Industrial Countries and Emerging Markets,” Unpublished Working Paper, International Monetary Fund, Washington.5. Zhang, Z.B. (2012), “A Comparison of the Beer and Penn Effect Models via Their Application in the Renminbi Valuation,” Journal of Finance and Economics, Vol. 27, 153-165.6. John W. (2003), “The Renminbi Exchange rate and the Global Monetary System,” Unpublished Working Paper, International Monetary Fund, Washington.7. Steven D. and X.M. Li (2005), “Estimating China’s “Equilibrium,” Real Exchange Rate,” Working Paper [05/202], International Monetary Fund.8. Lee et al. (2005), “Equilibrium Real Exchange Rates: Estimates for Industrial Countries and Emerging Markets,” Unpublished Working Paper, International Monetary Fund, Washington.9. John W. (2003), “The Renminbi Exchange rate and the Global Monetary System,” Lecture, Central University of Finance and Economics, China.10. Ted H.C. (2005), “The Chinese RMB: It’s Value, Its Peg, and Its Future,” Business Economics, Vol. 40, 7-17.11. Morris G. and L. Nicholas (2006), “China`s Exchange Rate Policy Dilemma,” The American Economic Review, Vol. 21, 10-18.12. Morris G. (2004), “Adjusting China’s Exchange Rate Policies,” Seminar, International Monetary Fund, Dalian, China.13. Yin W.C. and Menzie D.C. (2006), “The Overvaluation of Renminbi Undervaluation,” Journal of International Money and Finance, Vol. 26, 762-785. 描述 碩士
國立政治大學
金融研究所
100352031
102資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G1003520311 資料類型 thesis dc.contributor.advisor 李桐豪 zh_TW dc.contributor.author (Authors) 陳春翰 zh_TW dc.creator (作者) 陳春翰 zh_TW dc.date (日期) 2013 en_US dc.date.accessioned 25-Aug-2014 15:17:09 (UTC+8) - dc.date.available 25-Aug-2014 15:17:09 (UTC+8) - dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 25-Aug-2014 15:17:09 (UTC+8) - dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G1003520311 en_US dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/69199 - dc.description (描述) 碩士 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 金融研究所 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 100352031 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 102 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) 自布列敦森林協議崩潰以來，世界各個主要工業國家紛紛改採浮動匯率制度。從此全球開始進入了貨幣戰爭的時段，確實，一國匯率貶值將有利於出口產業，包含長期處於熊市的美元與近期來持續貶值的日圓皆是，且透過匯率貶值，亦可改善國際貿易長期呈現赤字的情況。但匯率是雙向的，一國貨幣貶值，另一國貨幣必然相對升值。中國便是最好的例子，隨著經濟的崛起，中國迅速的累積了大量貿易盈餘與外匯存底，並在之後的金融風暴中，為了維護中國經濟不受衝擊，中國政府將人民幣兌美元的匯兌水平壓低至8.28人民幣兌1美元。此時，各國包含歐、美與日本等工業大國開始抨擊中國政府刻意操作匯率，並持續對中國施壓要求開放匯率的自由化。因此，本文最主要的目的是研究究竟人民幣匯率是否如外界所言的被大幅低估，被低估的程度為多少，並希望透過本篇論文來看到人民幣未來前景的展望。 結果顯示，儘管人民幣過去確實遭到大幅低估，幅度約在30%~65%之間不等。但隨著中國政府對人民幣匯率政策的改革與開放，人民幣被低估的情況確實持續的改善，根據本篇研究，如今人民幣僅受到些微低估，與國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)2013年5月份所發佈的年度評估報告所顯示的一致，突顯出美國政府與國會議員實在是沒有任何理由在人民幣匯率上持續大做文章。人民幣未來的方向應朝著擴大國際化與自由匯兌的方向前進，在不久的將來，人民幣或將成為全球第3大的國際貨幣。 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) From the collapse of Bretton Woods Agreements until now, every country changed their currency policy from fix rate to floating rate. From then on, the world began the war of currency. Indeed, when a country’s currency depreciates, it will have some positive effect on export industries and can also improve the long term trade deficit such as US and Japan. But when one currency depreciate, there must be a currency that appreciate. For example, China. Thanks to the quickly growth of economy, China gained a lot of trade surplus and accumulated huge foreign exchange reserve in a short time. And during the financial crisis, China government fixed the exchange rate at 8.28 RMB to 1 US dollar in order to protect their economy. At that time, many country including Europe, USA and Japan, criticized that China government attempt to control the exchange rate and they continually put pressure on China government asking China government to give up the control of exchange rate. As a result, this paper focus on the exchange rate of China RMB in order to find out whether the RMB is really been undervalued and how much the RMB has been undervalued. And we hope that we can look into the future of the China RMB.According to the research, we find out that although RMB had really been overvalued in the past. The situation has improved after the revolution and become more open of China government. Our result shows that recently the China RMB is just been slightly undervalued in accordance with the report published by IMF in 2013/05. Those report shows that there is no reason for the US to make any criticize on the exchange rate of China RMB. We think that what China government should do is to make RMB more internationalized and free of exchange. We believe that RMB may become one of the biggest currencies in the future. en_US dc.description.tableofcontents 致謝詞……………………………………………………………………………..i中文摘要………………………………………………………………………….ii英文摘要…………………………………………………………………………iii目次……………………..…………………….…………………………………..v表次……………………..…………………….…………………………………vii圖次……………………..…………………….………………………………...viii第一章 序論.……………………………………………………………………..…...1第二章 中國人民幣匯率政策之變革……….…………………………………….…3第一節 人民幣匯率制度的演進.…………………………………………….……3第二節 人民幣的國際化…………….………………………………………….…5第三章 文獻回顧……………………………………………………………………..7第一節 均衡匯率水平理論.………………………………………..……….……..7第二節 人民幣均衡匯率水平文獻回顧………..……………………………..…16第四章 實證結果……………………………………………………………………20第一節 絕對購買力平價…………………..…………..…………………………20第二節 相對購買力平價…………………………………………………………21第三節 巴拉薩-薩繆爾森效應的橫斷面模型………………...……………....…22第四節 有效匯率指數……………………….………………...…………………23 第五節 與其他主要亞洲國家比較………………………………………………25第五章 結論與建議…………………………………………………………………31附錄一 歐、美、日與IMF對人民幣匯率的發言與看法.………………………36參考文獻…………………………………..…………………………………………38 zh_TW dc.format.extent 670793 bytes - dc.format.mimetype application/pdf - dc.language.iso en_US - dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G1003520311 en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) 人民幣 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 匯率 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 人民幣政策 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 匯率政策 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) RMB en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) exchange rate en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) China currency policy en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) currency policy en_US dc.title (題名) 探討貨幣價值之合理性-以人民幣為例 zh_TW dc.title (題名) The Reasonable Value of Currencies - Take China RMB as Example en_US dc.type (資料類型) thesis en dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 一、中文部份1. 齊建國、彭緒（2004），「人民幣升值及其對中國經濟影響的分析」，《人民幣匯率：經濟與戰略分析》，遠景基金會出版。2. 張德仁（2000），「人民幣實質匯率之研究」，未出版碩士論文，國立政治大學行政管理碩士學程。 3. 張曉朴（2000），《人民幣均衡匯率研究》，中國金融出版社。4. 余世芳（2000），「總體經濟因數對人民幣匯率的長期均衡關係之研究」，未出版碩士論文，中原大學企業管理學研究所。5. 楊道元（2002），「人民幣實質有效匯率的均衡與失調分析」，未出版碩士論文，銘傳大學經濟學研究所。6. 官民儀（2007），「人民幣均衡實質匯率實證分析：1982年至2005年」，未出版碩士論文，國立政治大學國際經營與貿易研究所。7. 侯哲、陳麗英（2011），「基於Beer模型的人民幣匯率失調研究」，《武漢理工大學學報》，第30卷第2期，62-69。二、英文部份1. Chou, W.L. and Y. C. Shin (1998), “The Equilibrium Exchange Rate of the Chinese Renminbi,” Journal of Comparative Economics, Vol. 26, 165-174.2. Frankel (2004), “On the Renminbi: The Choice between Adjustment under A Fixed Exchange Rate and Adjustment under a Flexible Rate,” NBER Working Paper, No.11247.3. Coudert and Couharde (2005), “Real Equilibrium Exchange Rate in China,” Working Paper of CEPII, No.2005-01.4. Lee et al. (2005), “Equilibrium Real Exchange Rates: Estimates for Industrial Countries and Emerging Markets,” Unpublished Working Paper, International Monetary Fund, Washington.5. Zhang, Z.B. (2012), “A Comparison of the Beer and Penn Effect Models via Their Application in the Renminbi Valuation,” Journal of Finance and Economics, Vol. 27, 153-165.6. John W. (2003), “The Renminbi Exchange rate and the Global Monetary System,” Unpublished Working Paper, International Monetary Fund, Washington.7. Steven D. and X.M. Li (2005), “Estimating China’s “Equilibrium,” Real Exchange Rate,” Working Paper [05/202], International Monetary Fund.8. Lee et al. (2005), “Equilibrium Real Exchange Rates: Estimates for Industrial Countries and Emerging Markets,” Unpublished Working Paper, International Monetary Fund, Washington.9. John W. (2003), “The Renminbi Exchange rate and the Global Monetary System,” Lecture, Central University of Finance and Economics, China.10. Ted H.C. (2005), “The Chinese RMB: It’s Value, Its Peg, and Its Future,” Business Economics, Vol. 40, 7-17.11. Morris G. and L. Nicholas (2006), “China`s Exchange Rate Policy Dilemma,” The American Economic Review, Vol. 21, 10-18.12. Morris G. (2004), “Adjusting China’s Exchange Rate Policies,” Seminar, International Monetary Fund, Dalian, China.13. Yin W.C. and Menzie D.C. (2006), “The Overvaluation of Renminbi Undervaluation,” Journal of International Money and Finance, Vol. 26, 762-785. zh_TW
