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題名 立法委員連任預測模型分析-以第四屆立法委員為例
其他題名 A Study on the Predicted Model of Legislators` Reelection-Using Fourth Legislators for Example
作者 吳宜侃
Wu, I-Kan
貢獻者 政治系
關鍵詞 SNTV選制 ; 立法委員 ; 連任 ; 政黨因素 ; 個人表現因素 ; 地方派系因素 ; 選區因素
SNTV electoral system ; legislator ; reelection ; party ; personal performance ; local faction ; constituency
日期 2005.05
上傳時間 25-Sep-2014 10:44:45 (UTC+8)
摘要 本研究以立法委員連任為研究主軸,旨在探討SNTV選舉制度下,立法委員之連任表現。研究首先針對第四屆區域立委於第五屆立法委員選舉之連任表現進行探討,並且檢視政黨、個人、地方派系、選區等四大因素與立法委員連任表現的關係,以發掘影響立法委員連任表現的重要因素。最後,分別運用二元洛基模型,建立「立法委員連任模型」,比較各類自變數對立法委員連任與否的影響程度,並對現任立法委員於次屆連任與否進行預測。研究結果發現,政黨、個人、地方派系、選區等四大因素中,以政黨因素、個人表現因素,對第四屆區域立委於第五屆立法委員選舉之連任表現影響,最為關鍵;更精確的說,政黨提名,以及相較於同選區其他立委下,立法委員於任內之立法工作、選區服務、新聞曝光度等三項個人表現,共同為影響立法委員連任與否之重要變數。
The axis of this paper is legislators` reelections, and the purpose is to explore legislators` reelections under SNTV electoral system. At the beginning, this paper discusses the fourth legislators` reelections in the fifth legislative election then examines the relationship between the major four factors, including party, personal performance, local faction and constituency, and legislators` reelections in order to find out the important variables of affecting legislators` reelections. Finally, this paper will use binary logistic model to build ”the model of legislators` reelections” for comparing the degree of all the variables affecting legislators` reelections.Research findings show that among all the four factors, party and personal performance are the most critical ones affecting the fourth legislators` reelections in the fifth legislative election. Speaking precisely, the nomination of party and legislators` performances (including legislative performance, services of the constituency and the news-exposures in term), which compare with the other legislators` in the same constituency are the important variables affecting legislators` reelection.
關聯 選舉研究 , 12 (1) , 173-210
資料類型 article
dc.contributor 政治系en_US
dc.creator (作者) 吳宜侃zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) Wu, I-Kanen_US
dc.date (日期) 2005.05en_US
dc.date.accessioned 25-Sep-2014 10:44:45 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 25-Sep-2014 10:44:45 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 25-Sep-2014 10:44:45 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/70140-
dc.description.abstract (摘要) 本研究以立法委員連任為研究主軸,旨在探討SNTV選舉制度下,立法委員之連任表現。研究首先針對第四屆區域立委於第五屆立法委員選舉之連任表現進行探討,並且檢視政黨、個人、地方派系、選區等四大因素與立法委員連任表現的關係,以發掘影響立法委員連任表現的重要因素。最後,分別運用二元洛基模型,建立「立法委員連任模型」,比較各類自變數對立法委員連任與否的影響程度,並對現任立法委員於次屆連任與否進行預測。研究結果發現,政黨、個人、地方派系、選區等四大因素中,以政黨因素、個人表現因素,對第四屆區域立委於第五屆立法委員選舉之連任表現影響,最為關鍵;更精確的說,政黨提名,以及相較於同選區其他立委下,立法委員於任內之立法工作、選區服務、新聞曝光度等三項個人表現,共同為影響立法委員連任與否之重要變數。en_US
dc.description.abstract (摘要) The axis of this paper is legislators` reelections, and the purpose is to explore legislators` reelections under SNTV electoral system. At the beginning, this paper discusses the fourth legislators` reelections in the fifth legislative election then examines the relationship between the major four factors, including party, personal performance, local faction and constituency, and legislators` reelections in order to find out the important variables of affecting legislators` reelections. Finally, this paper will use binary logistic model to build ”the model of legislators` reelections” for comparing the degree of all the variables affecting legislators` reelections.Research findings show that among all the four factors, party and personal performance are the most critical ones affecting the fourth legislators` reelections in the fifth legislative election. Speaking precisely, the nomination of party and legislators` performances (including legislative performance, services of the constituency and the news-exposures in term), which compare with the other legislators` in the same constituency are the important variables affecting legislators` reelection.en_US
dc.format.extent 1524001 bytes-
dc.format.mimetype application/pdf-
dc.language.iso en_US-
dc.relation (關聯) 選舉研究 , 12 (1) , 173-210en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) SNTV選制 ; 立法委員 ; 連任 ; 政黨因素 ; 個人表現因素 ; 地方派系因素 ; 選區因素en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) SNTV electoral system ; legislator ; reelection ; party ; personal performance ; local faction ; constituencyen_US
dc.title (題名) 立法委員連任預測模型分析-以第四屆立法委員為例zh_TW
dc.title.alternative (其他題名) A Study on the Predicted Model of Legislators` Reelection-Using Fourth Legislators for Exampleen_US
dc.type (資料類型) articleen