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題名 以決策樹及實質選擇權方法評估 ODM 專案
ODM Projects Evaluation -- An Application of Decision Tree and Real Options Methods作者 梁豫清 貢獻者 郭維裕
梁豫清關鍵詞 ODM
決策樹
實質選擇權日期 2013 上傳時間 3-Nov-2014 10:10:16 (UTC+8) 摘要 在以 ODM 為主要業務的公司中，通常會有下列特徵：\r\n1. 規格由客戶指定，無規格制定權; \r\n2. 產品價格和數量通常會事先談好，ODM 廠商只能在談定的售價上擠出利潤空間; \r\n3. 交貨時程配合客戶終端產品生產或上市，由客戶指定，通常都很緊迫; \r\n4. 除非專利保護，否則由於競爭者眾，客戶的對 ODM 廠商的選擇彈性大; \r\n5. 除非專利保護，通常 ODM 專案利潤低; \r\n6. 通常接案數量大，以便能擴展 ODM 產品的範圍與增加營收。\r\n由以上來看，ODM 廠商雖然沒有品牌商所面臨的高度市場不確定性，\r\n但卻面臨到利潤低、交期短、競爭者眾的問題。而這些問題的共同解決方\r\n式即在提升研發能力。若是 ODM 廠商的研發能力強的話，便可在現有售\r\n價及預訂時程內，以較低的零件成本設計出符合產品規格的成品，並且降\r\n低製造複雜度，提高品質，將競爭者排除在外。\r\n本文參考案例公司現況及現有 ODM 專案評估機制 ， 參考決策樹法及實\r\n質選擇權，設計出研發單位的選擇方式，以便能在現有多個研發單位中，\r\n依照過去實績來挑出最佳承接專案的單位，冀能提升公司整體研發資源的\r\n效率，並進而增加公司的接案能量及獲利。
摘要 摘要摘要 摘要........................................................................ I\r\n目錄 目錄目錄 目錄....................................................................... II\r\n圖目錄.................................................................................. III\r\n表目錄................................................................................... IV\r\n第一章 緒論 緒論緒論 緒論................................................................ 1\r\n第一節 研究動機.......................................................................... 1 \r\n第二節 研究目的.......................................................................... 1 \r\n第三節 研究範圍.......................................................................... 2 \r\n第四節 本文架構.......................................................................... 2 \r\n第二章 文獻探討.......................................................................... 3\r\n第一節 淨現值（NET PRESENT VALUE, NPV）法介紹............................................ 3 \r\n第二節 決策樹法介紹...................................................................... 4 \r\n第三節 實質選擇權介紹.................................................................... 5 \r\n第三章 電源供應器產業分析及案例公司現況簡介.............................................. 7\r\n第一節 電源供應器產業現況................................................................ 7 \r\n第二節 案例公司現況簡介.................................................................. 9 \r\n第三節 案例公司 ODM 專案特徵............................................................ 20 \r\n第四章 運用 運用運用 運用決策樹與實質選擇權觀念評估專案 決策樹與實質選擇權觀念評估專案.. 22\r\n第一節 ODM 專案評估方法................................................................. 22 \r\n第二節 ODM 專案評估方法之應用........................................................... 27 \r\n第五章 結論 結論結論 結論與建議 與建議.................................................. 34\r\n第一節 結論............................................................................. 34 \r\n第二節 建議............................................................................. 36 \r\n參考文獻................................................................................ 37參考文獻 一、中文文獻：\r\n王瑞德 、 洪士軒 、 楊竣宇. 應用實質選擇權分析產品開發決策之彈性－以台\r\n灣微波產品公司為例\r\n劉翠玲. 2006. 無形資產與技術鑑價文獻回顧\r\n龔化中. 2010. 運用實質選擇權觀念分析手機 ODM 產業研發投資價值\r\n吳巧瑩、王寶慧、黃豐盛、吳吉政. 2012. 第十五屆決策分析研討會. 應用\r\n實質選擇權於智慧型手機市場研究之財務規劃\r\n吳巧瑩 、 吳吉政. 2012 第 15 屆科技整合管理研討會. 結合情境規劃與決策\r\n樹之行動通訊新產品開發財務規劃\r\n二、英文文獻：\r\nAlex Triantis, Adam Borison. 2001. Real Options: State Of The Practice. \r\n Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, 2001, Vol-1 4, No 2 \r\nAlvaro Cuervo-Cazurra*, C. Annique UN. 2010. \r\n Why Some Firms Never Invest In Formal R&D. Strategic Management \r\nJournal, 2010, 759-779 \r\nBurcu Tan, Edward Anderson, James Dyer, geoffrey Parker. \r\n Using Binomial Decision Trees and Real Options Theo ry to Evaluate System \r\nDynamics Models of Risky Projects \r\nDan Latimore. Calculating value during uncertainty: Getting real with \"real \r\noptions\". \r\n IBM Institute for Business Value \r\nGraham R. Mitchell and William F. Hamilton. 1988. MANAGING R&D AS A \r\nSTRDTEGIC OPTION. \r\n Research Technology Management, May/Jun 1988. \r\n38 \r\nJUNKUI YAO AND ALI JAAFARI. 2003. \r\n Combining Real Options and Decision Tree: An Integr ative Approach for \r\nProject Investment Decisions and Risk Managment. \r\n The Journal Of Structured And Project Finance. \r\nLuiz E. Brandão, James S. Dyer, Warren J. Hahn. 2005. Using Binomial \r\nDecision Trees to Solve Real-Option Valuation Problems. \r\n Decision Analysis, June 2005, Vol. 2, No. 2, 69 –88 \r\nAdam Borison. 2005. Real Options Analysis: Where Arethe Emperor`s Clothes? \r\n Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, 2005, Vol-1 7, No. 2 \r\nHakan Erdogmus. 1999 March 14. Valuation of Complex Options In Software \r\nDevelopment. \r\nHan T.J. Smit, Lenos Trigeoris. Real Options: Examples And Principles Of \r\nValuation And Strategy \r\nJohnathan C. Mun. Real Options Analysis vs. Traditional DCF Valuation in \r\nLayman`s Terms \r\nKeith J. Leslie, Max P. Michaels. 1997. The real power of real options. \r\n THE McKINSEY QUARTERLY 1997 NUMBER 3. \r\nMarisa Analía Sánchez, Gastón Silverio Milanesi. \r\n Evaluation of Software Development Investments: a Real Options Approach. \r\nMartha Amram, Fanfu Li, Cheryl A. Perkins. 2006. \r\n How Kimberly-Clark Uses Real Options. Journal of Ap plied Corporate \r\nFinance. Vol-18, No 2 \r\nMichel Benaroch. 2001. Option-Based Management of Technology Investment \r\nRisk. IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management, Vol.48, No. 4, pp. \r\n428-444, November 2001 \r\nPeter Miller, Ted O`Leary. 2005. Managing Operational Flexibility in \r\nInvestment Decisions: The Case of Intel. \r\n Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, 2005, Vol-17, No 2 \r\n39 \r\nRaul Guerrero. 2007. The Case for Real Options Made Simple. \r\n Journal of Applied Corporate Finance. Vol-19, No 2 \r\nTom Copeland, Peter Tufano. 2004. A Real-World Way to Manage Real \r\nOptions. \r\n Harvard Business Review, March 2004. \r\nTao Wang, Richard de Neufville. Identification of Real Optios \"in\"Projects. \r\nTao Chen, Jinlong Zhang, Kin-Keung Lai. 2009. An integrated real options \r\nevaluating model for information technology projects under multiple risks. \r\n International Journal of Project Management. 27 (2009) 776-786 \r\nVasiliki Makropoulou. 2011. Decision Tree Analysis and Real Options: A \r\nReconciliation. \r\n Managerial And Decision Economics. Feb 2011 261-2 64 \r\n三 、網頁資料：\r\nhttp://www.credit.com.tw/newweb/market/weekly/index.cfm?sn=51 描述 碩士
國立政治大學
經營管理碩士學程(EMBA)
100932070
102資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0100932070 資料類型 thesis dc.contributor.advisor 郭維裕 zh_TW dc.contributor.author (Authors) 梁豫清 zh_TW dc.creator (作者) 梁豫清 zh_TW dc.date (日期) 2013 en_US dc.date.accessioned 3-Nov-2014 10:10:16 (UTC+8) - dc.date.available 3-Nov-2014 10:10:16 (UTC+8) - dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 3-Nov-2014 10:10:16 (UTC+8) - dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0100932070 en_US dc.identifier.uri (URI) https://ah.lib.nccu.edu.tw/item?item_id=79498 - dc.description (描述) 碩士 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 經營管理碩士學程(EMBA) zh_TW dc.description (描述) 100932070 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 102 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) 在以 ODM 為主要業務的公司中，通常會有下列特徵：\r\n1. 規格由客戶指定，無規格制定權; \r\n2. 產品價格和數量通常會事先談好，ODM 廠商只能在談定的售價上擠出利潤空間; \r\n3. 交貨時程配合客戶終端產品生產或上市，由客戶指定，通常都很緊迫; \r\n4. 除非專利保護，否則由於競爭者眾，客戶的對 ODM 廠商的選擇彈性大; \r\n5. 除非專利保護，通常 ODM 專案利潤低; \r\n6. 通常接案數量大，以便能擴展 ODM 產品的範圍與增加營收。\r\n由以上來看，ODM 廠商雖然沒有品牌商所面臨的高度市場不確定性，\r\n但卻面臨到利潤低、交期短、競爭者眾的問題。而這些問題的共同解決方\r\n式即在提升研發能力。若是 ODM 廠商的研發能力強的話，便可在現有售\r\n價及預訂時程內，以較低的零件成本設計出符合產品規格的成品，並且降\r\n低製造複雜度，提高品質，將競爭者排除在外。\r\n本文參考案例公司現況及現有 ODM 專案評估機制 ， 參考決策樹法及實\r\n質選擇權，設計出研發單位的選擇方式，以便能在現有多個研發單位中，\r\n依照過去實績來挑出最佳承接專案的單位，冀能提升公司整體研發資源的\r\n效率，並進而增加公司的接案能量及獲利。 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) 摘要 摘要摘要 摘要........................................................................ I\r\n目錄 目錄目錄 目錄....................................................................... II\r\n圖目錄.................................................................................. III\r\n表目錄................................................................................... IV\r\n第一章 緒論 緒論緒論 緒論................................................................ 1\r\n第一節 研究動機.......................................................................... 1 \r\n第二節 研究目的.......................................................................... 1 \r\n第三節 研究範圍.......................................................................... 2 \r\n第四節 本文架構.......................................................................... 2 \r\n第二章 文獻探討.......................................................................... 3\r\n第一節 淨現值（NET PRESENT VALUE, NPV）法介紹............................................ 3 \r\n第二節 決策樹法介紹...................................................................... 4 \r\n第三節 實質選擇權介紹.................................................................... 5 \r\n第三章 電源供應器產業分析及案例公司現況簡介.............................................. 7\r\n第一節 電源供應器產業現況................................................................ 7 \r\n第二節 案例公司現況簡介.................................................................. 9 \r\n第三節 案例公司 ODM 專案特徵............................................................ 20 \r\n第四章 運用 運用運用 運用決策樹與實質選擇權觀念評估專案 決策樹與實質選擇權觀念評估專案.. 22\r\n第一節 ODM 專案評估方法................................................................. 22 \r\n第二節 ODM 專案評估方法之應用........................................................... 27 \r\n第五章 結論 結論結論 結論與建議 與建議.................................................. 34\r\n第一節 結論............................................................................. 34 \r\n第二節 建議............................................................................. 36 \r\n參考文獻................................................................................ 37 - dc.description.tableofcontents 摘要 摘要摘要 摘要........................................................................ I\r\n目錄 目錄目錄 目錄....................................................................... II\r\n圖目錄.................................................................................. III\r\n表目錄................................................................................... IV\r\n第一章 緒論 緒論緒論 緒論................................................................ 1\r\n第一節 研究動機.......................................................................... 1 \r\n第二節 研究目的.......................................................................... 1 \r\n第三節 研究範圍.......................................................................... 2 \r\n第四節 本文架構.......................................................................... 2 \r\n第二章 文獻探討.......................................................................... 3\r\n第一節 淨現值（NET PRESENT VALUE, NPV）法介紹............................................ 3 \r\n第二節 決策樹法介紹...................................................................... 4 \r\n第三節 實質選擇權介紹.................................................................... 5 \r\n第三章 電源供應器產業分析及案例公司現況簡介.............................................. 7\r\n第一節 電源供應器產業現況................................................................ 7 \r\n第二節 案例公司現況簡介.................................................................. 9 \r\n第三節 案例公司 ODM 專案特徵............................................................ 20 \r\n第四章 運用 運用運用 運用決策樹與實質選擇權觀念評估專案 決策樹與實質選擇權觀念評估專案.. 22\r\n第一節 ODM 專案評估方法................................................................. 22 \r\n第二節 ODM 專案評估方法之應用........................................................... 27 \r\n第五章 結論 結論結論 結論與建議 與建議.................................................. 34\r\n第一節 結論............................................................................. 34 \r\n第二節 建議............................................................................. 36 \r\n參考文獻................................................................................ 37 zh_TW dc.language.iso en_US - dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0100932070 en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) ODM zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 決策樹 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 實質選擇權 zh_TW dc.title (題名) 以決策樹及實質選擇權方法評估 ODM 專案 zh_TW dc.title (題名) ODM Projects Evaluation -- An Application of Decision Tree and Real Options Methods en_US dc.type (資料類型) thesis en dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 一、中文文獻：\r\n王瑞德 、 洪士軒 、 楊竣宇. 應用實質選擇權分析產品開發決策之彈性－以台\r\n灣微波產品公司為例\r\n劉翠玲. 2006. 無形資產與技術鑑價文獻回顧\r\n龔化中. 2010. 運用實質選擇權觀念分析手機 ODM 產業研發投資價值\r\n吳巧瑩、王寶慧、黃豐盛、吳吉政. 2012. 第十五屆決策分析研討會. 應用\r\n實質選擇權於智慧型手機市場研究之財務規劃\r\n吳巧瑩 、 吳吉政. 2012 第 15 屆科技整合管理研討會. 結合情境規劃與決策\r\n樹之行動通訊新產品開發財務規劃\r\n二、英文文獻：\r\nAlex Triantis, Adam Borison. 2001. Real Options: State Of The Practice. \r\n Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, 2001, Vol-1 4, No 2 \r\nAlvaro Cuervo-Cazurra*, C. Annique UN. 2010. \r\n Why Some Firms Never Invest In Formal R&D. Strategic Management \r\nJournal, 2010, 759-779 \r\nBurcu Tan, Edward Anderson, James Dyer, geoffrey Parker. \r\n Using Binomial Decision Trees and Real Options Theo ry to Evaluate System \r\nDynamics Models of Risky Projects \r\nDan Latimore. Calculating value during uncertainty: Getting real with \"real \r\noptions\". \r\n IBM Institute for Business Value \r\nGraham R. Mitchell and William F. Hamilton. 1988. MANAGING R&D AS A \r\nSTRDTEGIC OPTION. \r\n Research Technology Management, May/Jun 1988. \r\n38 \r\nJUNKUI YAO AND ALI JAAFARI. 2003. \r\n Combining Real Options and Decision Tree: An Integr ative Approach for \r\nProject Investment Decisions and Risk Managment. \r\n The Journal Of Structured And Project Finance. \r\nLuiz E. Brandão, James S. Dyer, Warren J. Hahn. 2005. Using Binomial \r\nDecision Trees to Solve Real-Option Valuation Problems. \r\n Decision Analysis, June 2005, Vol. 2, No. 2, 69 –88 \r\nAdam Borison. 2005. Real Options Analysis: Where Arethe Emperor`s Clothes? \r\n Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, 2005, Vol-1 7, No. 2 \r\nHakan Erdogmus. 1999 March 14. Valuation of Complex Options In Software \r\nDevelopment. \r\nHan T.J. Smit, Lenos Trigeoris. Real Options: Examples And Principles Of \r\nValuation And Strategy \r\nJohnathan C. Mun. Real Options Analysis vs. Traditional DCF Valuation in \r\nLayman`s Terms \r\nKeith J. Leslie, Max P. Michaels. 1997. The real power of real options. \r\n THE McKINSEY QUARTERLY 1997 NUMBER 3. \r\nMarisa Analía Sánchez, Gastón Silverio Milanesi. \r\n Evaluation of Software Development Investments: a Real Options Approach. \r\nMartha Amram, Fanfu Li, Cheryl A. Perkins. 2006. \r\n How Kimberly-Clark Uses Real Options. Journal of Ap plied Corporate \r\nFinance. Vol-18, No 2 \r\nMichel Benaroch. 2001. Option-Based Management of Technology Investment \r\nRisk. IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management, Vol.48, No. 4, pp. \r\n428-444, November 2001 \r\nPeter Miller, Ted O`Leary. 2005. Managing Operational Flexibility in \r\nInvestment Decisions: The Case of Intel. \r\n Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, 2005, Vol-17, No 2 \r\n39 \r\nRaul Guerrero. 2007. The Case for Real Options Made Simple. \r\n Journal of Applied Corporate Finance. Vol-19, No 2 \r\nTom Copeland, Peter Tufano. 2004. A Real-World Way to Manage Real \r\nOptions. \r\n Harvard Business Review, March 2004. \r\nTao Wang, Richard de Neufville. Identification of Real Optios \"in\"Projects. \r\nTao Chen, Jinlong Zhang, Kin-Keung Lai. 2009. An integrated real options \r\nevaluating model for information technology projects under multiple risks. \r\n International Journal of Project Management. 27 (2009) 776-786 \r\nVasiliki Makropoulou. 2011. Decision Tree Analysis and Real Options: A \r\nReconciliation. \r\n Managerial And Decision Economics. Feb 2011 261-2 64 \r\n三 、網頁資料：\r\nhttp://www.credit.com.tw/newweb/market/weekly/index.cfm?sn=51 zh_TW
